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Peacock: ROI-Spain teaches Europe about modern economics

Spain continues to be the fastest-growing economy in the Eurozone, and has outperformed its peers again in the third quarterly. The Iberian nation's successful mix of policies offers lessons that are at odds with global political trends.

Spain's economy has grown by 0.6% in the last three months, a rate slightly lower than the previous quarter but still well above the 0.2% for the Eurozone as a group. This continues a trend of positive growth over the past few years.

The International Monetary Fund has recently ranked Spain the fastest-growing advanced country, increasing its growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% after a 3.5% increase in 2024. This is well above the 1.2% 2025 forecast of the entire bloc.

The healthy growth in Spain has contributed to a reduction of the debt/GDP, which dropped from 119% to 102% in 2018. The IMF predicts this ratio to fall into double digits in 2030.

Many of Spain's EU counterparts are watching this trend with envy. It's a far cry compared to the early 2010s, when the country suffered a housing bust and an existential banking crises.

What is the reason for this dramatic change?

Tourism boom, effective use of recovery funds from the pandemic era, and an emphasis on high-value service have all played a key role. Spain's high level of targeted immigration is another key growth driver. This comes at a time when many EU nations want to reduce migration.

SMART IMMIGRATION

Spain is unique in Europe for promoting immigration as a positive.

According to the Elcano Royal Institute, net international migration was responsible for the majority of Spain's 8.2 million population increase between 2000 and 2024. The institute stated that without net international migration, Spain's population would have grown by only a few thousand people.

In an interview with The Guardian, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proclaimed this fact, stating that immigration accounted for 25% of Spain's GDP per capita and 10% of social security revenue, but only 1% of the public expenditures.

Fitch, a credit rating agency, says that immigration has helped increase Spain's potential growth (the rate at which the economy can expand without causing inflation) to 2.0%.

Banco de Espana (the country's central banking institution) says that Spain's recent migration has had a positive impact on the economy because it was geared toward skilled workers in sectors with bottlenecks. Spain has been able tap into a large pool of Spanish-speaking Latin American workers.

Spain is a good example of how low productivity can be a burden on the major European economies.

Green Boss

Spain's sun-drenched weather is a key asset in its search for growth. It lends itself well to renewable energy.

Spain is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), its massive investments in solar, wind, and renewable hydrogen should boost employment, research and development, and growth in the next years.

Spain has already reaped some benefits from its green drive, with some of the lowest wholesale prices for electricity in Europe.

Spain, Europe's second largest car producer, has attracted major investments, including from Germany and China, Chery and CATL, after announcing in 2020 a 5-billion euro plan to attract the electric vehicle and battery manufacture. It is reported that BYD may also be interested.

There have, however, been some bumps in the road. In April, Spain experienced the biggest blackout Europe has seen in over two decades. Although there's no evidence that the increased use of renewable energy was to blame, it is likely the result of the country failing to adapt its power infrastructure in order to keep pace with the rapid energy shift.

STUMBLING BLOCK

Madrid's policy mix may change in the next few years. Spain is not immune to the global trend of dissatisfaction towards the government.

This is for a number of good reasons. Many Spaniards have been shut out of the housing markets due to high property prices. Even though unemployment is at levels not seen since 2008 almost 2,5 million people remain unemployed. The government is also facing corruption allegations which it denies.

Recent opinion polls show that the next elections are due in 2027. Sanchez's ruling PSOE is lagging behind centre-right PP, but by a very small margin.

Spain's decade-long history shows, despite all the rhetoric to contrary, that it is possible for Europe to increase productivity and to slow down negative demographic trends.

It remains to be seen if other European countries will heed this message.

The views expressed are those of Mike Peacock. He is a former director of communications for the Bank of England, and former senior editor of. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.

(source: Reuters)