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Nour News reports that the damaged unit of Iran's South Pars Refinery is now back in operation.
Nour News, the Iranian state news agency, reported that a damaged unit of South Pars refinery Phase 14 has been returned to service. Israel had struck the refinery in its first attack on Iran's oil sector. South Pars is the largest gas field in the world. It is located off the coast of Iran's Bushehr Province, which is the southernmost province. This gas field is responsible for a large part of the gas produced by the country. Iran is the third largest gas producer in the world after the United States of America and Russia. The agency said that gas production did not stop and the unit damaged was repaired within 10 days. The Israeli strike on June 14 caused an fire in one of four Phase 14 units. It has since been put out. Israel began an airstrike against Iran, killing scientists and commanders on June 13, and bombing nuclear facilities. It claimed it was trying to stop Tehran from building atomic weapons. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced a ceasefire on Monday between Israel and Iran after a 12-day aerial war. Reporting by Dubai Newsroom. Yomna ehab is the author. (Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).
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Dollar hits 3-year low and stocks hit new record amid Fed concerns
The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than three years, even though global stocks hit their third all-time high on Thursday. Markets are also growing increasingly concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Dollar Index was down by nearly 0.5% for the session, and over 10% on an annual basis. If the trend continues in the coming days, it will be the biggest drop in the first six months since the beginning of the free-floating currency era in the early 1970s. Wall Street's major indexes are trading higher. The benchmark S&P 500, and Nasdaq are nearing records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.74%, the S&P 500 by 0.66% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.73%. European shares ended up 0.09%. MSCI's global stock index rose 75%, to 908.96. This was a record high for a third consecutive session. According to a Wall Street Journal article, President Donald Trump is considering replacing Chair Jerome Powell in the coming months. His term ends next May. Powell just finished two days of testimony before the U.S. Congress. He said that he would be cautious in considering any further rate reductions, as he expects Trump’s tariffs to cause prices to increase this summer. Wasif Latif is the chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners, a New Jersey-based firm. He said that a Trump appointment to a shadow Fed chairman will likely undermine investor confidence in its independence and contribute to the weakness of the dollar. Latif explained that the market is aware that Powell will leave the stage sooner or later and that the next appointment would likely be someone who's a bit more dovish, or politically motivated. "And the markets are saying that the next chair is likely to be more receptive to large cuts than Powell was and I think this is part of the reason why the dollar is weakening and gold is reflecting it." Overnight, the Nikkei in Tokyo rose 1.65%, reaching its highest level since last January. MSCI's Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan also finished higher. The euro has reached its highest level against the US dollar since 2021. Trade tariff talks with Washington are expected to begin next week ahead of Trump's July 9 global deadline. The dollar fell to its lowest level in a decade against the Swiss Franc, at 0.79855. The dollar was also down by 0.73% at 144.195 yen against. After its decline this year, the dollar index, which compares the U.S. dollar to six other currencies, is now at its lowest point since March 2022. Michael Metcalfe, State Street's chief economist, said: "The dollar has struggled to appreciate in virtually any market regime." He added that the US dollar was now at its lowest level since the COVID Pandemic. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in nearly 25% of the chance that the Fed will cut rates at its meeting on the last day of July, up from 12.5% the previous week. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.6 basis points, to 4.277%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates, fell 2.9 basis points to 3.75%. This was its lowest level since seven weeks. Germany's benchmark, which is used in Europe for comparisons, has risen by 0.4 basis points. The oil prices are on course for a second consecutive day of gains following their sharp drop after the Trump-brokered truce between longtime Middle East enemies Israel and Iran early this week. Trump also announced that he would hold talks with Iran to ask for a commitment to curtail its nuclear ambitions. Brent crude futures climbed 1.2% to 68.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), gained 1.43% at $65.85. Gold fell 0.2% to $3325.54 per ounce.
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Gresham House CEO says US clients are looking for green investments in Europe
Tony Dalwood said that U.S. investors and Asian investors were looking at Europe as a result of the U.S. government's decision to withdraw support for projects in the United States related to the transition to low-carbon economies. Since assuming office, U.S. president Donald Trump has taken steps to reduce various environmental initiatives and regulations, as well as standards, that were championed by the predecessor. This includes ending tax credits for projects involving green energy years earlier than originally planned. Other countries are also feeling the pressure to slow down their transition to zero emissions, but many governments still remain committed to investing in projects like hydrogen and solar energy. Dalwood, speaking at a NEXT Newsmaker conference during London Climate Action Week, said that "we're seeing (U.S.)... investors wanting to come over to Europe to talk about it a little bit more" in terms of infrastructure, energy transformation investments, and natural capital. "And this is also true elsewhere in the world; Asia thinks they should invest more in Europe than they did before, when they would normally have invested in North America. It's clear, after talking with (investors) worldwide in the past six months. Dalwood said that the British government's commitment to green energy, as outlined in its Industrial Strategy published this week, was a significant signal. The government's plan aims to boost investment in clean energy by more than 30 billion pounds (41.23 billion dollars) per year, but in response to political pressures about the cost of the transition it has said that it will reduce green levies on business. Dalwood stated that the UK's green energy support was crucial for Gresham House. The company, which manages assets worth around $12 billion and is Britain's largest commercial forestry manager with around 12 billion pounds in assets, has a large market for "natural capital". Investors see sustainable development as a way to achieve their goals. This includes investing in sustainable agriculture and forestry, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and water management. Dalwood added that he expects the number to increase "to a larger number". Reporting by Simon Jessop. Jane Merriman edited the article.
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Siemens Gamesa, Chinese magnet suppliers discuss European production, COO says
Siemens Gamesa, a wind turbine manufacturer, is in discussions with Chinese suppliers about bringing production in Europe. This would reduce the region's dependence on imports following China's restrictions on supply. The delays in the issuance of Chinese export permits for rare earths have forced European automakers and their suppliers into a scramble to find alternatives on a market dominated by China, the world's second largest economy. The production of rare earths across Europe could be affected by the No. 2 economy in the world. Wind sector is also dependent on rare earths produced in China. Most notably, neodymium which is used to make permanent magnets, a vital component of turbines, but not currently affected by delays in export permits. Siemens Gamesa is a division of Siemens Energy and the largest offshore wind turbine manufacturer in the world. It has taken several steps to diversify its business away from China. "Regarding Chinese magnet dependency, it's also about this question: Would I prefer to spend a little bit more money in Europe so that I can become resilient?" Are there any ways to encourage suppliers outside Europe to establish a presence in Europe?," Carina Brühl, Siemens Gamesa chief operating officer, said at an event. We are in general also talking with Chinese suppliers about the possibility to build factories in Europe. This is a possibility if fair competition encourages investments in sustainable constructions. Brehm didn't name any suppliers but some of the largest include JL MAG Rare-Earth and Ningbo Yunsheng. Brehm stated that Siemens Gamesa is working hard to achieve its goal of breaking even by 2026. When asked if the onshore wind business, the cause of the problems, was for sale, Siemens Energy finance chief Maria Ferraro replied that the portfolio would remain intact with the hope of generating double-digit profits in the future. The team rallies around the goal of ensuring stability in this business. It's not an easy task. Ferraro added that what matters is whether it performs according to our expectations. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Christoph Steitz)
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Petrobras wins major lots at Brazil's oil auction, beating revenue forecast
Petrobras, the state-run oil company in Brazil, was the biggest winner of the auction on Thursday. The sale is expected to generate revenues in excess of $5.08 billion. The amount exceeds initial Government forecasts The 25 billion reais should boost the public coffers, as the Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva administration tries to reach its fiscal targets. The state-run company PPSA held the auction, and is responsible for selling that portion of oil which companies producing under share contracts in pre-salt fields must give to the Brazilian government according to Brazilian law. Petrobras purchased three of the seven lots that were put up for auction, securing 36.5 million barrels total of oil from the Mero-Sepia fields. Equinor purchased 14 million barrels from Mero while another 14 were bought by a consortium of Galp and ExxonMobil. Petrochina and the Mataripe refinery acquired 10 million barrels. "Our auction had the most participants, winners and best prices. We also broke the record of premiums over lots. "It was a huge success, no doubt," PPSA chief Luis Fernando Paroli said to reporters. He said that PPSA is expecting to auction 100 million barrels next year. This could generate 37 billion reais of revenue. $1 = 5.5117 Reais (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle, Marta Nogueira Gabriel Araujo Jr.
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AI datacenter boom threatens to destroy Big Tech's Net-Zero plans
Cloud computing and AI consume energy and water Climate crisis in the sector Big Tech claims its accounts are transparent and open By Carey L. Biron According to the research, the tech industry faces a "climate crisis" because its data centers require more and more electricity and water in order to power fields such as artificial Intelligence (AI) or cloud computing. The narrative has changed, from "we're set on the target" to "we're not really sure but we'll make it." He said that the picture was further complicated by ongoing discussions about how to report and count future emissions. Big Tech says it will fight climate change, and is working to be environmentally sustainable in every aspect of its business. Day points out that Microsoft in February called its 2020 sustainability goals "a moonshot". Then it said: "We had to admit that the Moon has gotten farther away." The report shows that the company's energy demand has tripled in the last three years, due to its investment in huge warehouses which house computer systems that allow users to store photos, listen music, chat with AI chatbots, and more. Microsoft has declined to comment. DATA HUBS In recent years, the proliferation of data centres has exploded. Statista reports that North America had fewer than 1,500 data centers in 2014. By this year, there were more than 5,400. The average size of their homes and the power they use has also increased. Environmental campaigners worry that the growing reliance of data centers on energy and water will undermine these ambitions. According to McKinsey Consulting, AI is expected to consume about 12% of U.S. electricity by the end decade. This could make it more difficult for companies transitioning from fossil fuels that are harmful to the planet to clean energy. GROWING GAP The new report, based on information publicly available, shows massive increases in emissions by companies along with seemingly minor changes to sustainability plans. NewClimate reports that the accounting is hazy, making it difficult to pinpoint the difference. Amazon's pledge of being net zero by the year 2040 is "unsubstantiated" and leaves out large parts of its business. It relies on market-based solutions, such as carbon credit. While many companies outsource a large portion of their operations to third parties, such as using data centers that they do not own, Meta and Microsoft do not include these operations in the total emissions. Apple and Google have not responded to our requests for comment. Meta declined to comment, but a spokesperson stated that the company is transparent about its emissions and energy consumption. The spokesperson also pointed to the 2024 blog regarding the energy approach. Amazon stated that the report "mischaracterizes and makes inaccurate assumptions all throughout" -- even its disclaimer acknowledges NCI can't guarantee its accuracy. "By comparison, we have an independently audited seven-year track history of delivering transparently facts that adhere to global reporting standards." AI is also referred to as a technology that transforms industries and households, causing energy consumption to increase. Amazon listed several sustainability initiatives, including more efficient delivery routes or a reduction in water usage. In a press release, it stated that "We are excited about the future and will continue sharing our progress in an open manner." NewClimate’s report also highlighted a much wider concern, given that these companies are the foundation of the digital economy as a whole, said Nick Dyer Witheford, professor of information and Media Studies at the University of Western Ontario. He pointed out the role Big Tech companies play in driving carbon dioxide emissions "through digitally targeted advertising, online shopping, and influencer culture". It is the role that giant digital corporations play in maintaining a global regime based on hyper-production and constant consumption, which needs to be addressed. According to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (a U.S. think-tank), more than half the 5,400 US data centers that were operating in March used fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency, data center energy consumption is expected to increase by 12% between 2017 and 2024. By 2030 it will double again. Anurag Srivastava is a professor of computer science at West Virginia University. He said that within three years, almost half the demand for AI datacenters will come from utilities and grid operators. Srivastava explained that AI usage is likely to change quickly and in large numbers, depending on time of day, or a certain meme or digital trend that is sweeping the Internet. He said that gas is a source of energy that can be ramped up and down rapidly - unlike nuclear power or other sources. He said that solar can be done the same way as long as it is located in the right place. Large storage batteries may help. Srivastava explained that this raises the stakes, as a gas-powered power system capable of handling such peaks and valleys would come at a cost, both financial and environmentally.
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Greece fights wildfire near its capital
Greek firefighters fought a wildfire on Thursday that forced people to flee from their homes and holiday homes near the coastal village of Palaia Fokaia. The town is located 40 km south of Athens. Greece's southernmost, hottest region has been experiencing fires all week. Climate change is to blame for the recent increase in wildfires, and flooding. Twelve aircraft and twelve helicopters helped 130 firefighters in the area of Palaia-Fokaia to extinguish flames caused by strong winds. Vasilios Vathrakogiannis, a spokesperson for the fire brigade, said in a televised press conference that 40 people had been moved to safety by Greek police. He added that coastguard ships were on their way to help with any additional evacuations. He said that firefighters were fighting fierce fires near homes. A road along the seashore running through the affected area was cordoned off as a precaution. On Thursday, thick grey smoke rose over a region of lush vegetation where temperatures reached 38 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit). The authorities said that the wildfire risk would be high Friday, before temperatures cooled. Greece spent hundreds of millions to compensate farmers and households for damages caused by extreme weather conditions and to purchase new, modern firefighting gear to combat wildfires that have become more difficult to control due to rising temperatures in the summer. The number of firefighters has been increased to a new record of 18,000 in preparation for another challenging wildfire season. (Alkis Konstantinidis, Daria SitoSucic and Mark Heinrich edited this article.)
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After whistleblower complaints, US Farm Agency finds safety concerns at top research facility
USDA investigates safety problems at a research facility Experts warn that a decline in investment could threaten US agricultural innovation Hire a new director and modernize facility buildings as part of corrective measures Leah Douglas WASHINGTON, 26th June - In an investigation of 2023 complaints from whistleblowers about the condition of the site, The Department of Agriculture discovered significant safety issues. This was revealed in a report sent to the White House by the Office of Special Counsel. Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, located in Maryland, near Washington, D.C., houses laboratories that study climate change, invasive insect, animal genomics, and other topics. Exclusively reported in May 2023, BARC workers filed complaints about unsafe working conditions. These included broken fire alarms, ventilation systems, and wild temperature swings indoors. Experts warn that the U.S.'s position as a leader in agricultural innovation is threatened by declining government investments in agricultural research. According to a Wednesday letter from the OSC, the investigation ordered by the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) in 2023 substantiated whistleblower claims and revealed "pervasive" safety deficiencies, including excessive grime, damaged floors, mold, and a lack of potable drinking water. In the letter, it was stated that the poor condition of the building was due to inadequate funding, understaffing and a lack necessary tools and equipment. In the letter, it was stated that the investigation had not found that poor conditions hindered research. BARC employees told stories of incidents such as a 2022 plumbing leak that ruined data and records, and how inoperable alarms forced staff to divert time from their research in order to perform fire patrols. The letter stated that the agency had taken corrective measures to address these issues. This included hiring a new facility director and developing a plan for moving employees into fewer, more modern buildings. The Trump administration is proposing to cut funding to USDA research agencies, and the agency has already lost hundreds of employees as part of efforts to reduce the size and cost of the federal government. (Reporting and editing by Bill Berkrot in Washington, Leah Douglas reported from Washington)
McGeever: A hawkish Fed can cause the biggest "pain trades" on markets.
Financial markets are in limbo as the first half of this year ends. They're waiting to see if the global trade deal kaleidoscope will come together - or not - after July 9 when Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs expire. Which trades are most at risk if investors get caught off guard?
Today's market is in a state of suspended animation. This is an incredibly bullish situation. The U.S. forecasts for growth are increasing, S&P earnings growth estimates are at 14% next year, corporate deal making is on the rise, and global stocks are at records highs.
It seems that the uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day", April 2, tariffs is a distant past. The relief rally raged for almost three months and only took a short pause during the 12-day conflict between Israel & Iran.
Some might even say it's too rosy. What will be the "pain trades", if we see a decline?
Unsurprisingly, the major pressure points occur in asset classes and on markets where sentiment and positioning are heavily skewed in one direction. A sudden price change can cause too many traders to rush out of the market at once.
Bank of America's global fund manager monthly survey is a good way to identify positions that are overloaded. According to the Bank of America's June survey, long gold is the most popular trade right now (according 41% of respondents), followed by long "Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks" (23%), and then short U.S. Dollar (20%).
These three trades are popular because they have proven to be highly profitable.
The "Mag 7", a basket of Nvidia shares, Microsoft shares, Meta stock, Apple stocks, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla, accounted for more than half of S&P 500’s 58% return over two years in 2023-2024. The Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF, which is equal-weighted, has risen 40% in the past year. This week, the Nasdaq 100, a market index that includes these seven companies, reached a new high.
Gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two and a half years. They reached a record-breaking $3,500 per ounce in April. The dollar has fallen 10% in this year and is on course for its worst half-year since the establishment of the free-floating rate system more than 50 year ago.
Slash and... BURN?
These three positions are essentially derivatives of a fundamental bet. The belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut U.S. rates substantially over the next 18-month period, which would turn all of these positions into moneymakers.
Rates futures markets are increasing their bets for lower rates despite the Fed's revised projections of economic growth last week being notable for their hawkish tone. This is mainly due to dovish remarks from several Fed officials, and a sharp drop in oil prices. The traders now predict a 125 basis point rate cut by the end next year.
Morgan Stanley's economists are even more pessimistic, predicting no change in the forecast for this year and 175 basis point cuts next year. This would bring the Fed funds rate down to between 2.5% and 2.75%.
A reduction in borrowing costs is especially beneficial for companies with high growth potential, such as Big Tech. In theory, low rates would also be good for gold as it is a non-interest bearing asset.
On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the economy continues to grow, and equity prices are rising, while at the same time the Fed cuts rates by 175 basis points.
A Fed that eases at this speed and scale would almost certainly be trying to quell a raging fire in the economy, which is most likely to cause a recession or severe economic slowdown. Risk assets may not necessarily crash in this environment, but overextended positions will be exposed.
This isn't a first for investors to have bet on Fed cutbacks in the last three years. However, we haven't seen a major crash as a consequence. The markets have fared better than most observers predicted, and reached new highs.
If "pain trading" does emerge in the second part of the year, this will be due to one particular sore spot: A hawkish Fed.
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(source: Reuters)