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Kuwait Petroleum Corp. reports damage to units following Iran drone attacks
On?Sunday?, Iranian drone attacks hit multiple targets in Kuwait. State?energy company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported fires and "severe damage" to some units. KPC stated in a press release that teams are working to contain fires at National Petroleum Company and Petrochemical Industries Company affiliates. KPC said earlier that a drone had attacked the complex housing the KPC headquarters and oil ministry in Shuwaikh. Kuwaiti state media, citing Kuwait's finance ministry, reported that an Iranian drone had allegedly 'hit an office complex of government ministries, inflicting significant material damage, but no injuries. Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity and Water said that two power-generating units were taken out after Iranian drones attacked two desalination and power plants. The damage was significant. In all incidents, no injuries have been reported. The U.S. and Israeli 'war on Iran' is now in its sixth weeks, with Tehran attacking Israel and Gulf Arab states that host U.S. military bases. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have claimed responsibility for the attacks on Kuwaiti petrochemical facilities, as well as those in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
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PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia's non oil business activity shrank in March amid conflict.
A 'business survey' revealed that Saudi Arabian non-oil sector activity fell in March for the first time since August 20. The war in the Middle East had slowed down supply chains. S&P Global's?seasonally-adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.8 from 56.1 in Feb. The readings below 50 indicate contraction. Naif Al Ghaith is the chief economist at Riyad Bank. He said that the drop into contraction was largely due to short-term uncertainties linked with the geopolitical tensions of the region. "The soft reading was mainly?driven by a pause in the new orders, as clients adopted more caution." Export orders experienced a notable drop, and some firms reported a temporary slowdown of cross-border activities. This led to a moderated output, Al-Ghaith explained. For the first time, both output and new orders have declined since August 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic brought economies to a grinding halt. New orders dropped to 45.2 in March, down from 61.8 in February. Export demand was weakening sharply. New export orders posted their steepest drop?in nearly six years. Exports were 'completely stopped' by some firms, while others experienced greater logistical problems. The conflict has slowed the flow of water through the Strait of Hormuz, but the supply strains have increased. This situation may continue as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked. Business expectations for the coming 12 months remain 'positive' despite a 'weakening of their lowest level since June 2020. Some firms are still confident about government spending, the development of infrastructure and the improvement in demand on the long term. (Reporting and Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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South Korea asks Gulf Nations for a steady supply of energy and safety of Korean vessels
The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced that Koo 'Yun-cheol, Minister of Finance, met with envoys of Gulf countries on Sunday to discuss energy security and the safety of 'Korean vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. This is due to the escalating Iran conflict disrupting shipping. The ministry said that during the Friday meeting, Koo requested the ambassadors of the Gulf Cooperation Council to ensure a constant supply of oil, liquefied gas, naphtha and urea as well as other critical resources. He also asked them to ensure the safety and security for Korean vessels and crews near this vital strait. The statement stated that the envoys referred to South Korea as a nation of "top priority". They also pledged to work closely with Seoul in order to maintain a stable supply. Like many Asian economies, South Korea relies heavily upon energy imports. This includes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was the conduit for 20% of 'world oil' before Israel and the U.S. launched their war on the 28th of February. Since then, Iran has effectively closed the waterway. This has pushed up energy prices and raised fears of a global recession. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait and Oman are the six GCC member states. Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Editing by William Mallard
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Egypt increases electricity prices for households and businesses that use more energy amid energy crisis
The electricity ministry announced on Saturday that Egypt will raise electricity prices for residential and commercial consumers who use more electricity. This increase is due to a global energy crisis caused by the Gulf War. The government has taken a number of measures to reduce energy consumption and curb fiscal pressures as rising import costs put pressure on the finances of the most populous Arab country. The ministry stated that the increase would only affect households with higher consumption and commercial users. This was done to ensure the supply of electricity across residential, industrial and commercial sectors. The report said that electricity rates for residential bands up to 2,000 kilowatt hours per month would remain the same, but tariffs for higher residential brackets will increase by an average 16%. It added that commercial electricity prices in all brackets will increase on average by about 20%. In March, Prime Minister Mostafa. Madbouly stated that Egypt's energy import bills had more than doubled in the last few years since the start of the conflict involving the United States and Israel. This forced the government to increase fuel prices, raise fares for public transportation, and slow down some state projects, to relieve pressure on the public finances. Egypt implemented measures to rationalise its energy consumption in March, including a move towards earlier closing times for commercial venues. This was due to the rise of global oil prices during the conflict. Inflation has been in double digits since September 2023, when it peaked at 38%. The country is already struggling with heavy debts. Reporting by Momen Atallah and Enas Alashray
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Slovak PM: EU should lift sanctions on Russian oil, gas and other energy sources to improve energy security
Robert Fico, the Slovakian Prime Minister, said that the European Union must end sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports and take steps to restore Druzhba pipeline flows, as well as end the conflict in Ukraine, in order to tackle the energy crisis stemming from the war with Iran. Fico stated in a press release after a phone call with Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban, that the EU should re-establish dialogue with Russia to ensure member states get gas and oil from all sources including Russia. Hungary and Slovakia are the only two EU countries that maintain relations with Moscow. Oil prices have risen?since U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran began on February 28, causing a disruption to oil supplies in the Gulf and causing what the International Energy Agency calls the largest oil supply interruption in history. Central European nations have taken steps to reduce the impact of high fuel prices on consumers and businesses. By the end of 2025, only a fraction of EU oil imports came from Russia. This was after a steep decline in imports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. By January 27, Kyiv reported that a Russian drone attack had hit Ukrainian pipeline equipment, disrupting Russian oil?shipments. Budapest and Bratislava accuse Ukraine of intentionally delaying repairs in order to resume oil flow through the Druzhba pipe. This has triggered a political dispute which?has seen Hungary blocking an EU loan for Kyiv. Ukraine claims it is repairing it as fast as possible. Fico stated that it is not enough to address the energy crisis at the national or only local level. Five other European Union countries are also calling for a windfall profit tax on energy companies in response to rising fuel prices. This was revealed by a letter sent to the EU Commission on Saturday. The energy chief of the bloc said on Tuesday that it was considering reinstating energy crisis measures from 2022. This included proposals to reduce grid tariffs and electricity taxes.
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Taiwan has received assurances from a'major country' about LNG supplies
Taiwan's economy minister announced on Saturday that the energy minister of a "major country" producing liquefied gas had given Taiwan assurances about supply. He was speaking in relation to the?impact of the Iran War on Middle East energy imports. Taiwan, which is a major producer of semiconductors, relied on Qatar to supply around a third its LNG prior to the conflict. It has now said that it has secured alternative supplies from countries such as Australia and the United States for the months ahead. Kung Ming Hsin, Taiwan's Economy Minister, told reporters in Taipei that Taiwan enjoys good relations with its?crude gas and natural oil suppliers. Therefore, adjusting the origin of shipments or purchasing additional spot -cargoes will not be a problem. Kung stated that the energy minister from a "major energy producing country" had contacted him about two weeks prior. The person "explained that they would fully support our natural gas needs. He added that if we had any requests, we could let them know. Kung added: "Another nation even stated that certain countries had released strategic petroleum reserves and could help coordinate the matter if Taiwan needed assistance." He said, "This shows Taiwan has earned considerable international goodwill through the long-term confidence it has built." He refused to identify the countries involved. Angela Lin, spokesperson of state-owned refiner CPC said that at the same?newsconference, crude oil inventories are being maintained at levels prior to conflict and that overall petrochemical supply has remained stable. CPC Chairman Fang Jeng Zen said that a new agreement with the U.S. would see 1.2 millions metric tons of LNG delivered?annually. He added that Taiwan does not intend to import crude oil or LNG from Russia. (Reporting and editing by Ben Blanchard, Roger Tung and Joe Bavier).
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Five EU Finance Ministers Call for Tax on Windfall Profits of Energy Companies
In response to fuel prices rising due to the Iran War, five?European Union Finance Ministers have called for a tax to be placed on the 'windfall profits' of energy companies. This was revealed in a letter sent to the EU Commission on Saturday. In a joint letter dated on Friday, the finance ministers from Germany, Italy Spain Portugal and Austria called for such a move, stating that it would "signal" to others that they are united and capable of taking action. They wrote: "It will also send a message that those who benefit from the war's consequences must do their part in easing the burden of?the public." Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began on 28 February, oil and gas prices have risen dramatically. This is similar to the energy crises Europe experienced after Russia invaded Ukraine - in '2022 - despite the fact that EU countries are now getting more of their energy from renewable sources. LETTER HIGHLIGHTS 'MARKET DISTORTIONS' In a letter addressed to EU Climate commissioner Wopke Hekstra, the Ministers referred to the possibility of a similar tax to be implemented in 2022 as a way to combat high energy prices. They wrote: "Given current market distortions, and fiscal constraints the European Commission must develop quickly a similar EU wide contribution instrument based on a sound legal basis." The letter did not specify the level of windfall taxes that ministers would propose, nor which companies should be affected. The energy chief of the bloc said on Tuesday that it is considering reviving measures taken in response to the energy crisis in 2022. This includes proposals to "curb grid rates" and taxes on electricity. After Russia cut off gas deliveries, the EU implemented a series of emergency policies. These included a?EU-wide gas price cap, a tax imposed on windfall profits of energy companies, and targets to?reduce gas demand. The Middle East conflict has a significant impact on the global energy prices. Since the U.S. and Israel war against?Iran started on February 28, European gas prices have risen'more than 70%. Dan Jorgensen, EU Energy Commissioner, said that Brussels is particularly worried about the supply of refined petroleum in Europe such as diesel and jet fuel. Reporting by Andreas Rinke, Writing by Tom Sims, Editing by Alison Williams
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Senegal bans travel by government officials as Iran oil shock affects public finances
Senegal has banned all travel abroad by top officials and ministers that is not essential. The government warned of "extremely challenging" times as a result of the U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran, which will increase global oil prices, straining Senegal's budget. The price of Brent crude has soared and governments have been urged to act to reduce the negative effects. Senegal Prime Minister Ousmane sonko, speaking at a youth event on Friday night in Mbour, pointed out that oil is trading for about $115 per barrel, almost twice what was assumed to be the price in Senegal’s budget projections. He announced that he has already cancelled his own trips to Niger and France. The?crisis has prompted governments across West Africa and the world to take a number of?measures, including increases in fuel prices, subsidies and remote work. Sonko said that such actions were a "justification" for Senegal, a debt-ridden country. He said that?additional?measures would be announced next?week, and the Energy and Mines?Minister is expected to address?the?nation in the?coming?days?to detail efforts to mitigate?the impact of the?price shock. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Diadie Ba and Bate Felix)
McGeever: A hawkish Fed can cause the biggest "pain trades" on markets.
Financial markets are in limbo as the first half of this year ends. They're waiting to see if the global trade deal kaleidoscope will come together - or not - after July 9 when Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs expire. Which trades are most at risk if investors get caught off guard?
Today's market is in a state of suspended animation. This is an incredibly bullish situation. The U.S. forecasts for growth are increasing, S&P earnings growth estimates are at 14% next year, corporate deal making is on the rise, and global stocks are at records highs.
It seems that the uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day", April 2, tariffs is a distant past. The relief rally raged for almost three months and only took a short pause during the 12-day conflict between Israel & Iran.
Some might even say it's too rosy. What will be the "pain trades", if we see a decline?
Unsurprisingly, the major pressure points occur in asset classes and on markets where sentiment and positioning are heavily skewed in one direction. A sudden price change can cause too many traders to rush out of the market at once.
Bank of America's global fund manager monthly survey is a good way to identify positions that are overloaded. According to the Bank of America's June survey, long gold is the most popular trade right now (according 41% of respondents), followed by long "Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks" (23%), and then short U.S. Dollar (20%).
These three trades are popular because they have proven to be highly profitable.
The "Mag 7", a basket of Nvidia shares, Microsoft shares, Meta stock, Apple stocks, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla, accounted for more than half of S&P 500’s 58% return over two years in 2023-2024. The Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF, which is equal-weighted, has risen 40% in the past year. This week, the Nasdaq 100, a market index that includes these seven companies, reached a new high.
Gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two and a half years. They reached a record-breaking $3,500 per ounce in April. The dollar has fallen 10% in this year and is on course for its worst half-year since the establishment of the free-floating rate system more than 50 year ago.
Slash and... BURN?
These three positions are essentially derivatives of a fundamental bet. The belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut U.S. rates substantially over the next 18-month period, which would turn all of these positions into moneymakers.
Rates futures markets are increasing their bets for lower rates despite the Fed's revised projections of economic growth last week being notable for their hawkish tone. This is mainly due to dovish remarks from several Fed officials, and a sharp drop in oil prices. The traders now predict a 125 basis point rate cut by the end next year.
Morgan Stanley's economists are even more pessimistic, predicting no change in the forecast for this year and 175 basis point cuts next year. This would bring the Fed funds rate down to between 2.5% and 2.75%.
A reduction in borrowing costs is especially beneficial for companies with high growth potential, such as Big Tech. In theory, low rates would also be good for gold as it is a non-interest bearing asset.
On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the economy continues to grow, and equity prices are rising, while at the same time the Fed cuts rates by 175 basis points.
A Fed that eases at this speed and scale would almost certainly be trying to quell a raging fire in the economy, which is most likely to cause a recession or severe economic slowdown. Risk assets may not necessarily crash in this environment, but overextended positions will be exposed.
This isn't a first for investors to have bet on Fed cutbacks in the last three years. However, we haven't seen a major crash as a consequence. The markets have fared better than most observers predicted, and reached new highs.
If "pain trading" does emerge in the second part of the year, this will be due to one particular sore spot: A hawkish Fed.
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(source: Reuters)