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India's rice harvest is a record crop, resulting in a surplus of ethanol.
India has allocated record volumes of rice for ethanol production, as it battles with unprecedented inventories. These are expected to grow further when the new crop arrives. This is a turnaround from the earlier shortages which led to export restrictions. The conversion of more rice into ethanol helps reduce the rice stock in the world’s largest producer and exporter. It also keeps India’s ambitious ethanol blend programme on track, despite the drop in sugar cane supplies. India lifted the last of two years' worth of export restrictions in March. The poor rains had curtailed rice production. The abundant monsoon rainfall this year is expected to produce a bumper harvest. A senior government official, who declined to be identified because he wasn't authorised to talk to the media, said: "Our number one priority is to make sure that we have enough food." The official explained, "We have a lot more rice than is needed for this purpose and we decided to use some for ethanol production." Food Corporation of India, a state-run company, has allotted a record amount of rice to ethanol. This is equivalent to almost 9% of the global rice shipment in 2024/25's marketing year that ends in June. The previous year, FCI rice was used to make ethanol in less than 3,000 tonnes. FCI purchases nearly half of India’s rice crop. It currently has reserves of 59.5 million metric tonnes, including unmilled rice, on June 1. This is far more than the government’s target of 13.5 millions tons for July. Rice for ethanol is a great alternative to corn, which was spiking last year and forcing India to import record amounts of corn. Grain-based distilleries can use damaged grains, corn, or rice as their feedstock. They switch between them based on the price. India, which is the world's third largest oil importer, and the biggest consumer of petroleum products, wants to blend 20% ethanol in gasoline by 2025/26. It almost reached that target last month, with 19.8% ethanol thanks to abundant rice. In 2023, sugarcane supply, which had accounted for 80 percent of ethanol feedstock up until then, plummeted due to drought, forcing the largest consumer of sweetener in the world to drastically reduce sugar diversion for ethanol. In India, the gasoline last year contained 14.6% ethanol. PROBLEM of PLENTY Arushi JAIN, joint secretary of the Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association, stated that even more rice would be used to produce ethanol if government lowers the price of rice or increases the price for buying ethanol. According to Akshay Modi of Modi Naturals, an ethanol producer, the FCI sells rice for 22,500 Indian Rupees ($262.19) a ton while oil marketing companies purchase rice-based bioethanol at 58.5 rupees a litre. This doesn't leave enough margin to increase rice-based bioethanol production. FCI stocks may rise as India will likely harvest a bumper crop in October, according to B.V. Krishna Rao of the Rice Exporters Association. Rao said that India could only increase its exports so far, since it already accounts more than 40% for global rice shipments. India has aggressively exported rice since removing export restrictions. Shipments are likely to increase by nearly 25%, reaching a record of 22.5 million tonnes in 2025, reducing the exports from rivals such as Thailand and Vietnam. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, India harvested 146.1 million tonnes of rice in this crop year that ended in June. This was a record harvest, and far exceeded local demand, which was 120.7 millions tons. Himanshu Agrawal is the executive director of rice exporter Satyam Balajee. He said that rising stockpiles would force India to allocate more rice for ethanol next marketing year. Agrawal said, "The government is going to find it difficult to sell all the rice that they purchased from farmers." $1 = 85.8140 Indian Rupees
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Peabody extends lockout of Helensburgh coalmine in Australia
The U.S. coal company Peabody Energy has extended a lockout in one of its New South Wales mining operations, the Mining and Energy Union said Thursday. This follows a protest by its workers who demanded better wages and job security. According to the union, Peabody informed MEU members that the lockout of the Helensburgh underground mine would continue until July 6. The union stated that the workers had been locked out and without pay since 18 June. It also urged the Federal Government for a change in workplace laws which allow employers to take excessively "disproportionate" or "punitive actions" against workers exercising their rights to bargain. Matt Potter, Helensburgh mineworker delegate of the MEU and a MEU member, said that workers would not be intimidated and continue to fight for a fair wage and job security. Peabody's spokesperson stated, "We have extended the lawful action period to match the extended notification period of strike action by the union." The spokesperson said that "the company will cancel lockout action" if the union ceases its industrial action and their illegal 'go slowly' activities. The union didn't immediately respond to the company claiming that union workers were "going slow". Adwitiya Shrivastava reported from Bengaluru, and Janane Venkatraman edited the story.
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China's Guangxi province is flooded by water from an upstream province
Floodwaters from an upstream province swept into the mountainous area of China's Guangxi, causing towns and villages to be half submerged. A tropical cyclone is expected to land in the region later on Thursday, adding further disaster risk. Massive flooding in Guizhou province, in the cities of Rongjiang, Congjiang, and other areas, has now spread to the southwest, including Guangxi, where rural settlements are located on the banks of Liu River, which originates in Guizhou. State media reported that the Guangxi township Meilin had been hit hardest, with floodwaters reaching a height of more than four metres (13 feet), above what is considered safe. As floodwaters receded and surface runoff became less dangerous, southwest China, from Guizhou to Chongqing to Yunnan to Sichuan, was on alert for secondary disasters like road collapses, land slides and hydro-dam spillovers. Chen Xiaoguang is a professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu. He said that rural areas face many challenges because of their limited infrastructure and resources. Strengthening these systems will help reduce the impact of severe weather on rural areas. He said that urban areas are better equipped to deal with floods than other cities, but they're not all the same. Rongjiang, for example, is a county level area where resources are limited. The flood that hit Rongjiang in Guizhou, located at the confluence three rivers, on Tuesday was so large that Chinese meteorologists estimated that it would only occur once every 50 years. It also happened at such a rapid pace that its 300,000 inhabitants were shocked. One section of the Liu River in Rongjiang swelled to 11,800 cubic meters per second. This is the equivalent of five Olympic-sized pools. This was 80 times higher than the average flow rate. Six people died. Rains from the tropical depression that is expected to land in Guangxi Thursday night may affect restoration work and cause a second round of flooding. Tropical depressions made landfall in China's island province Hainan on Thursday morning, and then again on the mainland of Guangdong, bringing even more rain to an area still recovering from Typhoon Wutip, which hit two weeks earlier. (Reporting by Joe Cash and Shi Bu in Beijing and Farah Master in Hong Kong; writing by Ryan Woo; editing and retouching Jamie Freed and Raju Gopalakrishnan) Extreme storms are causing severe flooding that is linked to climate change. They threaten to overwhelm the ageing flood defenses, displace thousands of people, and cause economic losses of billions of dollars. Reporting by Joe Cash in Beijing, Shi Bu in Hong Kong and Ryan Woo in Hong kong. Writing by Jamie Freed; Editing and Raju by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Jamie Freed.
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Russell: Higher prices will affect Asia's crude imports in June.
Asia's crude oil imports rose in the first six months of 2025, as an increase in arrivals in June overcame the slow start of the year. According to LSEG Oil Research, the world's largest import region has seen arrivals of 27,36 million barrels a day (bpd), up by 620,000 bpd compared to the 26,74 million bpd of the same period in last year. The performance improvement was mainly due to the fact that June imports soared up to 28,65 million bpd. This is the highest LSEG data recorded since January 2023, and a significant increase from 27.3 millions bpd and 26,42 million bpd for June last year. China was the top importer in June, and LSEG estimated arrivals at 11,96 million bpd. This is the highest since March's 12,11 million bpd. India, Asia's largest buyer, is expected to import 5.26 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since March when 5.35 million barrels were imported. Market participants are wondering if the strong demand seen in Asia in June is a sign of a stronger second-half or if it is merely influenced by temporary factors. Price is the most obvious temporary factor. Both China and India are known to be sensitive when it comes to price fluctuations, increasing their imports at low prices but reducing them when they increase. The cargoes arriving in June would have been secured six to eight weeks prior to delivery. This means that the oil price was on a downward trend at the time. Brent crude futures traded in a range between a high of 75.47 dollars a barrel (on April 2) and a low of 58.40 dollars a barrel (on April 9). They then moved sideways until another low of 58.5 dollars on May 5. Brent oil has been rising since the low of May 5, reaching $70.40 per barrel on June 12 - the day before Israel began its bombing campaign on Iran. After the Israeli attacks, and subsequent U.S. airstrikes on June 23, crude oil spiked to an all-time high of $81.40 per barrel. The risk premium then disappeared with the ceasefire agreement announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. AUGUST IMPACT Asia's refiners will feel the increase in prices mainly on cargoes that arrive in late July or August. It will be important to monitor if there is a pullback in imports during this time period. There is no evidence to suggest that the demand for crude oil and refined products in Asia is increasing. According to the most recent official data, China's refinery production increased only 0.3% to 14,47 million bpd in the first five month of this year. The small increase in refinery output suggests that China's demand for refined products is slowing down and that most of the crude imported is being added to inventory. India's fuel consumption is flat as well. According to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, the oil ministry, the consumption of refined products for the first five month of 2025 was 4.51 million bpd, down from 4.52 millions bpd in the same period of 2024. From August, the increase in crude oil prices and the shock from the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran will likely weaken Asia's need for imports. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Increased supply of iron ore slashes prices; dollar strength limits gains
Iron ore prices dropped for the third session in a row on Thursday, despite a strengthening dollar. This was due to increased shipments out of Australia and Brazil. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.36% lower, at 698.5 Yuan ($97.51). As of 0354 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.37% at $92.4 per ton. Analysts at ANZ said that "Iron Ore Futures were on the verge of a new low for the year as strong supplies and lower production of steel in China weighs on sentiment". Data from Chinese consultancy Mysteel shows that inventories of imported iron-ore sintering fins rose for the third consecutive week, reaching 12.3 million metric tons by June 25, according to Mysteel. Mysteel said that the consumption of imported sintering fins had fallen by 1.5% on a weekly basis. The weaker dollar was still a factor in the price rises. It fell to multi-year lows after Donald Trump's remarks about replacing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the Fed's independence. Dollar-denominated investments are cheaper for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Everbright Futures, a broker, reported that the major producer Vale increased its iron ore supply due to a rush at the end of season. This contributed to increased iron ore shipments globally from Australia and Brazil. Li Qiang, Premier of China, said Thursday that the government would take "forceful measures" to increase domestic consumption. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also rose on the DCE. They increased by 1.45% and 0.58 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar dropped 0.47%, while hot-rolled coils fell 0.36%. Wire rod also slipped 0.21%, and stainless steel climbed 1.28%.
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Shanghai copper reaches two-week high due to dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices reached a two-week-high on Thursday. This was boosted by the weaker U.S. Dollar, which dropped to its lowest level for over three years and relief due to the Israel-Iran truce deal. As of 0132 GMT, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% to 79,000 yuan per metric tonne, its highest level since June 11. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.7%, to $9.777 per ton. The dollar dropped 0.4%, to its lowest level since March 2022. This was due to concerns raised by a Wall Street Journal article that said Donald Trump had considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in September or October. This report raised concerns over the soundness of U.S. financial policy. A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. The "ceasefire" between Iran and Israel, on the geopolitical side, has had a positive impact on the copper price, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA. Trump said that he will likely ask Iran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks next week. He also credited U.S. attacks on Iran for bringing an end to the conflict between Israel and Tehran. Goldman Sachs, in a recent note, said that it expects the price of copper to increase in the second half 2025, to an average $9,890 a metric ton. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of copper due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. LME aluminium increased by 0.3% at $2.570 per ton. Lead gained 0.6% to $2.044.5. Nickel firmed up by 0.9% at $15,215 per ton. Zinc was up 0.8% to $2.725. Tin fell 0.4% to $33,050. SHFE aluminium increased 0.4%, to 20,380 Yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.9%, to 22,165 Yuan. Lead fell 0.8%, to 16,675 Yuan. Tin dropped 1%, to 256 930 Yuan. Nickel rose 0.4%, to 124 110 Yuan. $1 = 7.1605 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Sumana Niandy).
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Demand for crude oil is strong as the drawdown of US crude stocks signals a rise in prices
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, continuing gains made the day before, as an unexpectedly large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories signaled a strong demand. Investors, however, were cautious due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire, and the stability of the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up 15 cents or 0.2% to $67.83 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), gained 20 cents or 0.3% to $65.12 per barrel. The benchmarks both rose by nearly 1% Wednesday after recovering from losses in the first part of the week. This was due to data showing a resilient U.S. market. Yuki Takashima is an economist at Nomura Securities. He said that some buyers favor the solid demand shown by falling inventory in U.S. Weekly statistics. He said that investors are still nervous and want to know the status of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The market is now focusing on OPEC+'s production levels. Takashima predicted WTI would return to its pre-conflict range of $60-$65. ANZ analysts stated that the focus of the market had shifted back to fundamentals with the deescalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. They also pointed out data showing U.S. Crude Oil inventories falling for a 5th consecutive week. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that "US government data shows the US driving seasons is in full swing following a slow start." Energy Information Administration (EIA), on Wednesday, reported that U.S. crude and fuel inventories decreased in the week ending June 20, as refinery activity and demand increased. The EIA reported that crude inventories dropped by 5.8 millions barrels. This was more than analysts expected in a poll which predicted a draw of 797,000 barrels. The gasoline stocks fell unexpectedly by 2.1m barrels, as compared to forecasts of a 381,000 barrel build. This was despite the fact that gasoline supply, which is a proxy for consumer demand, reached its highest level since December 2021. Igor Sechin said on Saturday that OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia - could accelerate the production increases by a year. In the meantime, U.S. president Donald Trump has hailed a swift end to the war between Iran & Israel. He said Washington will likely ask Tehran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks with Iranian officials in Tehran next week. Trump said that on Wednesday the U.S. had not given up on its maximum pressure against Iran, including restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil. However, he indicated a possible easing of enforcement in order to help rebuild the country. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing done by Sonali Paul).
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Aker BP Bites Dust in Norwegian Sea
Aker BP and its partners have drilled a dry well on the Rondeslottet prospect in the Norwegian Sea.Wildcat well 6405/7-4 was drilled in production license 1005, which was included in the Awards in Predefined Areas (APA) 2018, with awards taking place in March 2019.Aker BP is the operator of the license with 40% working interest, with partners Vår Energi and Norske Shell holding 40% and 20% shares, respectfully.The wildcat well was drilled using Saipem’s Scarabeo 8 semi-submersible drilling rig.The well is located in the Møre Basin, around 80 kilometers north of the Ormen Lange field and 175 kilometers northwest of Kristiansund.The well has been permanently plugged and abandoned.
Brazil's Lower House approves an extra pre-salt auction to increase revenue
The lower house of Congress in Brazil approved on Wednesday an executive order that allows the government to sell its share of offshore oil pre-salt fields, which are not under contract. This could boost revenues as Brazil struggles to balance its fiscal budget.
Jose Priante, a lawmaker from the Philippines, incorporated its content into an executive order on how oil and gas revenue can be used for certain programs.
The executive order amended, which is now going to be approved by the Senate, will expand the use of these resources.
In April, it was reported that the government planned to hold an additional oil auction to increase revenue. The goal is to raise 20 billion reais (3.60 billion dollars) by selling small parts of the Tupi Mero and Atapu Pre-salt Fields.
The oil reserves in these blocks are not covered by the previous sales. These remaining areas, also known as non-contracted zones, already produce oil in accordance with existing agreements. These surplus zones are now being put up for auction.
Hugo Motta, Speaker of the Lower House, confirmed via social media that this measure could generate up to 20 billion reais.
According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the approval for the executive order eliminates the need for the separate bill that the government submitted for authorization of the auction.
The sale will only be able to proceed once the National Energy Policy Council has published a resolution, and after the auction notice has been released.
According to a second government source, the auction will set minimum prices in each area. The highest bidder will secure extraction rights.
Source: "Whoever wins gets all the oil from that area," source says.
The approval of the executive order came after a major setback that the government suffered earlier in the day.
Congress reversed
A presidential decree had increased the Financial Transaction Tax (IOF) for certain operations. ($1 = 5,5577 reais). (Reporting and editing by Kyry Madry; Marcela Ayres)
(source: Reuters)