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South Africa wants to sell crude oil at $100 per barrel before it will increase its stockpiles
South Africa will not sell more strategic crude oil until global oil prices reach $100 per barrel, according to a senior energy official. Since 2022, the country has been trying to sell crude oil. The government initially cut a fuel tax in order to protect consumers from high petrol prices and diesel. Brent crude was $99 per barrel in that year. In recent weeks, global crude oil prices have been hammered by fears that President Donald Trump's tariff war will push economies across the globe into recession. Brent traded at around $66 per barrel on Wednesday. "The oil prices are too low. If you sell today, you will empty the tanks." Godfrey Moagi is the CEO of South African National Petroleum Company. He said, "We're looking to sell around $100 per barrel." South Africa's National Treasury expects to receive 4 billion Rand ($223.2m) from the sale more crude oil in the country's reserves strategic in the fiscal year ending in March 2026. However, Moagi's remarks suggest that this may not be the case unless oil prices rise globally. After the levy reduction in 2022, the government received 2 billion rand in the fiscal year 2023/24, when Brent futures were last trading at close to $100 per barrel. South Africa's strategic crude reserves are estimated to be 7.7 million barrels. Moagi stated that since 2022, two million barrels were sold to the local petrochemical company Sasol, and another 288,000 barrels to TotalEnergies' local unit. The Strategic Fuel Fund Association is a ringfenced unit within the company Moagi.
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Swedish Parliament backs funding bill for new nuclear energy
The Swedish parliament approved a bill Wednesday that will finance a new nuclear reactor generation, which the government claims is essential to energy security as well as achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. The government is planning four large-scale nuclear reactors with an installed capacity of approximately 5,000 MW, or their equivalent in small modular reactors. According to the government, half of this should be operational by 2035. Niklas Wykman, Minister of Financial Markets in Sweden, said that the issue was about ensuring Swedish jobs and tackling climate change. The government has stated that without nuclear energy, new industries such as green steel, biofuels, and large-scale production of hydrogen will move elsewhere. The government claims to support all fossil-free energy, but only nuclear power can provide reliable and predictable power. In a white paper that was published in August of last year and proposed a model similar to this one, it stated the state might need to loan nuclear developers anywhere between 300-600 billion crowns (between $31-62 billion). The price guarantees would remain in place for 40-years. The critics say that nuclear power is too expensive, too slow and will squeeze out wind and solar energy which are cheaper and the only ways to meet the increased demand on the short-term. Birger Lahti, of the Left Party opposition, said: "It's a matter of religious belief for this government to build a nuclear power plant no matter what the cost." (Reporting and editing by Anna Ringstrom, with Simon Johnson)
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NALCO India says its profit has doubled as aluminium and copper prices rise.
India's National Aluminium Company, NALCO, announced on Wednesday that its profit for the fourth quarter more than doubled due to higher commodity prices. The global price of base metals including aluminium rose dramatically between January and March, due to a combination of factors, such as lower production in China, declining inventories, and importers stockpiling due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs. In the third quarter, aluminium and copper benchmarks rose by 17% and 10% respectively on an annual basis. Metals tend to be more expensive when commodity prices are higher. The state-owned NALCO reported a consolidated profit of 20.67 billion rupees (241.7 million dollars) in the period January-March, which is more than twice as much as compared to a year ago. Revenue from operations increased by 47.2%, to 52.68 billion Rupees. NALCO’s aluminium division, which accounts for over half of the company's revenue, has grown by nearly 33%. It reported a 60 percent increase in its chemicals segment, which is its second largest and produces caustic, hydrochloric and sodium hypochlorite. The main reason for the decrease in expenses was due to lower costs of raw materials. This helped boost its EBITDA margin (earnings after interest, taxes and depreciation) to 50% from 24%. Vedanta, a rival company, also saw its profit double last quarter. Hindalco's profits also grew more than analysts expected. Reporting by Anuran Sahdhu, Bengaluru. Editing by Varun HK and Savio DSouza.
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Sources say that Elliott is poised to win at least two board positions at Phillips 66.
Two people familiar with Wednesday's preliminary vote reported that Elliott Investment Management, an activist hedge fund, had won enough support from Phillips 66's shareholders to win two board seats in the U.S. refiner's U.S. board of directors. This is one of the biggest corporate battles of this year. Elliott wants Phillips 66, a major refiner in the United States, to sell certain assets and become a pure play refiner. It also wants to improve Phillips 66's performance within its refining division and corporate governance. This year, it sought to bring four new members to its board. The preliminary voting results show that Phillips 66 was able to hold off Elliott, but each side won two of the four seats up for election. Two sources confirm that Elliott did not receive any support from the large index funds, which often have a say in corporate voting. One source said that it received 40% of its support from Phillips employee pension fund. It is the first ever time that Elliott, the most active activist investor in the world, has had a campaign put to a vote. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Tomasz Janovowski and Svea Herbst Bayliss)
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Moody's upgrades CEZ's outlook after the government takes a stake in the nuclear project
Moody's Ratings Agency has upgraded the outlook of Czech utility CEZ to "positive" after the Government announced last month that it would take a 80% stake in the multi-billion dollar nuclear power project run by the Group. In a statement released on Wednesday, Moody's confirmed CEZ's Baa1 rating. In April, the government announced that it had agreed to acquire a majority stake in CEZ subsidiary Elektrarna Dukovany II (EDU) which will manage the project of at least 18 billion dollars for new nuclear units supplied by South Korea’s KHNP. Moody's stated that "the positive outlook for CEZ reflects...the removal of virtually all construction and commissioning risk." CEZ, which has 70% of its shares owned by the Czech government, plans to invest around 400 billion crowns (18.23 billion dollars) in renewable energy, transmission and distribution by 2030. This is almost twice the amount invested over the last five years. Martin Novak said that CEZ would have to consolidate its debt if they remained the majority owners of the nuclear project. This would have limited their ability to invest in other projects.
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Indonesian gas firms sign gas swap deal to meet domestic demand
Gas producers from western Indonesia signed a swap agreement with Singaporean buyers Sembcorp Gas and Gas Supply Pte and state-owned distributor Perusahaan Gas Negara to boost domestic gas supplies, according to PT Pertamina. Pertamina stated in a press release that the gas swap scheme is designed to meet demand for natural gas in Indonesia, especially in the power and industrial sectors. MedcoEnergi, an Indonesian gas producer whose units are part of the West Natuna Supply Group (WNSG) and Corridor Block (also parties to the agreement), will replace the flows from the Corridor Block to Singapore with those coming from WNSG. This was announced in a separate press release. The flow of gas from the Corridor Block is being redirected to meet Indonesian domestic needs. Perusahaan Gas Negara will be the domestic buyer. Medco has also signed an independent gas sales agreement. Ronald Gunawan is the director and chief operational officer of MedcoEnergi. He said that this collaboration will provide adequate gas supplies on both domestic and international market. SKK Migas, Indonesia's oil-and-gas regulator, had said previously that it aimed for a gas exchange to start in June. (Reporting and writing by Bernadette Cristina; Editing and proofreading by Jan Harvey).
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Thames Water stops bosses' bonus after ministers object
Thames Water, the company at the center of the public outcry against Britain's privatised industry for water, has stopped a bonus program for its executives, after ministers raised objections to the payments. Debts in the billions have plagued the company, Britain's largest water provider with 16 million customers. The company secured a loan of 3 billion pounds in February to prevent a financial collapse. Some of the money went to senior managers for bonuses up to 1 million pounds ($1.34million) or 50% of their salary, as part of a retention program. Steve Reed, the Environment Minister told LBC Radio in London on Wednesday that bonuses are "outrageous". He said he told Thames Water to take "all actions" necessary to stop them. Thames Water said that it had suspended the program and would await the guidance of the water regulator Ofwat. Ofwat prevented Thames Water from paying bonuses to executives from customer money last year. A spokesperson for Thames Water stated that the board never intended to oppose the government's desire to reform the water sector. The board decided to suspend the retention program after recent discussions. The British government is looking to reform the water industry, which has been criticized by environmental groups and customers for causing damage to Britain's rivers and increasing customer bills while failing to invest. A government-commissioned review will be published in June. Reed stated that waterways will become cleaner due to a large increase in inspections of sewage pollution over the past nine months, which led to the launch of criminal investigations against water companies. The new legislation, which was passed in September of last year, aims to strengthen the supervision of water companies. Penalties include imprisonment for managers who obstruct investigations on the contamination of rivers and lakes.
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Sources say that the US will appoint Thomas Barrack to be a special envoy for Syria
Thomas Barrack, the long-time friend of President Donald Trump and current U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, will be appointed as a Special Envoy for Syria by the United States, according to a person in Turkey with direct knowledge and a diplomat. This decision comes after Trump's historic announcement last week of the lifting of U.S. sanctions against Syria. This decision also shows that the U.S. is acknowledging that Turkey has become a key regional player in Damascus after Bashar al-Assad was ousted by rebels last December, ending 14 long years of civil conflict. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said, "There are no announcements at this time." In a Tuesday speech to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. State Secretary Rubio stated that he had allowed Turkish embassy personnel, including Barrack to work with local officials to understand what type of aid they needed. Rubio stated that "we want to help this government succeed because the alternative would be full-scale civil conflict and chaos which, of course, would destabilise the whole region." According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Barrack attended a U.S. and Turkish meeting on Syria in Washington, where sanctions relief efforts and counter-terrorism were discussed. The U.S. sought to ease sanctions on Syria in a gradual manner, until Trump announced that he would order "the cessation" of sanctions. He said this was to allow Syria to recover from a devastating war. He claimed that he reached the decision following discussions with Saudi Crown Princess Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan. Trump met with Syria's Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa on May 14, in Saudi Arabia, and encouraged him to normalise relations with Israel after his surprise announcement of sanctions. The removal of U.S. financial sanctions on Syria would allow for more engagement from humanitarian organizations working in the country, as well as ease foreign trade and investment. This is important to help the country rebuild. (Reporting from Timour Azhari and Jonathan Spicer, both in Damascus; editing by Mark Heinrich).
The 2024 disinflation lesson: disregard oil at your peril: McGeever
In today's digital and servicesdominated economy, one might be forgiven for purchasing into the narrative that oil no longer has any genuine bearing on inflation.
That would be a mistake.
Inflation is beginning to undershoot some central banks' targets, in big part since the year-on-year change in the oil cost is deeply unfavorable. This is sending out a clear message: oil still matters-- a lot.
There's hardly any corner of the economy that oil doesn't. reach. It warms homes and organizations, powers factories and every. means of transport, and is a key input in the production of. chemicals, plastics, materials and all way of goods.
Real, its direct and indirect contribution to price pressure. has actually been diluted compared to the energy-intensive economy of. years gone by, but oil is still among the most precise. inflation weather condition vanes around.
And, despite recent geopolitical ructions, it's still. plainly pointing in one direction.
HEAD PHONY
If investors get their oil cost projection wrong, opportunities are. their view of inflation-- and, by extension, reserve bank policy. and the broader macro landscape - will also be blurred at best,. and blinded at worst.
This is taking place now. The previous year included numerous head. fakes, deceptive signals and incorrect hire monetary markets,. but maybe the most consequential has been the cumulative miss out on. on the instructions of oil. In a Reuters poll of economists and analysts carried out a year. earlier, the typical 2024 price of Brent and West Texas Intermediate. futures was forecast to be around $86 a barrel and $83/bbl,. respectively.
Brent increased above $90/bbl in April and WTI got near that. level, however oil costs have fallen dramatically since then and last. month dipped below $70/bbl. The year-on-year change in WTI has. been negative every day given that July 22 and approached -30% as. just recently as recently.
The effects of this on total inflation are substantial. Yearly. inflation in the euro zone is now 1.8%, below the European. Reserve bank's 2% target for the very first time in more than 3. years. Subsequently, ECB rates of interest cut expectations have. intensified considerably, even though reserve banks are. theoretically expected to overlook energy price changes.
These dynamics are likewise reducing rate pressures in the United. States, where energy inflation accounts for around 7% of the. customer price index and a much higher share of the manufacturer. price index.
FED UNDERSHOOT?
Are present energy dynamics signifying that the Federal. Reserve could cut rates quicker than many expect? It's. possible.
Experts at Goldman Sachs estimate that the energy price. contribution to annual U.S. CPI will increase one-tenth of a. portion indicate -0.35 percentage points by April next year,. pressing headline CPI as low as 1.9%, below the Fed's 2% objective.
Using the current oil rate futures curve as a guide,. headline CPI inflation in April might slow to 1.8%.
Energy costs impact more than just heading inflation. Even. if oil costs hold stable, core inflation will still be as much. as 0.15 portion points lower by the end of next year, and. will drop a more 0.15 portion points if oil falls another. $ 20/bbl, Goldman's experts reckon.
On the surface area, the above figures may seem like little. numbers, but in main banking every basis point matters. And. these shifts can still move the needle on inflation and thus. speed up the Fed's relieving cycle.
Some measures of annualized monthly inflation rates are. already at or listed below the Fed's 2% target, and Fed Guv. Christopher Waller just recently alerted that core inflation could. quickly do the same.
Customer energy costs are dragging down headline. inflation. With oil rates down another 7% in September ... this. drag ought to magnify in the September CPIs, JP Morgan. economists wrote late last month.
Now, a geopolitical or financial shock could obviously. disrupt this narrative. However, for now, it's reasonable to assume. that weak oil price characteristics could send out reserve banks back to. their pre-pandemic playbooks earlier than anybody thought.
(source: Reuters)