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Eskom's profit doubles, but sales weakness and municipal debt clouds outlook
South 'African Eskom has more than doubled their annual?profit? in the 2026 financial period, thanks to a turnaround of operations and higher electricity rates, but weaker demand, and increasing municipal debt, are clouding their prospects. State-owned utility SA Power said Monday that it had made a profit of $30.3 billion rand in the fiscal year ending March. This was compared to a restated $14.0 billion rand in the previous year. The power cuts that have hampered Africa's largest economy for over a decade are now much less frequent. Eskom reported that it had only implemented rolling blackouts four times during the financial year. This compares to 13 days one year ago and 329 days last year. The revenue rose by 4.1% due to a 12.7% increase in the average tariff, but a decline of 6.2% in electricity sales volume partially offset this gain. Calib Cassim, the outgoing chief financial officer, said that the weaker electricity sales, and the idleness of the Mozal aluminum smelter (which has been placed in care and maintenance because Eskom and it could not reach an agreement on tariffs), would affect the results for the current fiscal year. MUNICIPAL DUT CASTS SHADE Gross debt was 356 billion rand by the end of march, up from 326.7 billion rand one year ago. Unpaid municipal debt is the biggest threat to South Africa's dominant power supplier. Eskom accounts for over 40% of its sales from municipalities and metropolitan areas. Eskom reported that municipal debt increased by 17.9% to 111.6 billion Randd, and could reach 358 billion rand in the year 2031 if no action is taken. Cassim stated that Eskom's earnings could have been 15 billion rand more if it had collected the 15.8 billion Rand owed by municipalities. This is because revenue received from municipalities who do not pay is only recognised when cash is received. He said that Eskom could be in a better position to meet capital requirements without government assistance, but the municipality's debt must be resolved. South?Africa is holding municipal elections on November 4. South?Africa will hold municipal elections on?November 4.
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Radiant World's China ore head is leaving, according to sources
Two?sources who are familiar with the situation said that the head of China Iron Ore at Radiant World is leaving the company. The trading 'company' has been under scrutiny and many counterparties have stopped doing business with it. Sources said that Leon Jin was on his last day of work at the trading house, Monday. According to 'his LinkedIn profile', he joined Radiant World after spending more than 10 year with Trafigura. The sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with media. Some banks have frozen accounts of 'Radiant World,' and some trading houses have cut ties with the trader over concerns that he had submitted invalid invoices in order to raise funding. Singapore Police Force announced on August 20, that it is investigating Radiant after receiving reports about the company. However, it didn't disclose who made the reports or the nature of the complaints. Radiant World didn't?respond immediately to a comment request. One source said that the company has six iron ore dealers in China. Radiant World was founded in the early 2000s and became one of the largest iron ore trader's around the world, handling more than 80 million metric tons of this key ingredient for steelmaking last year. This is according to the company website.
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Nepal, hit by devastating floods and renewed calls for Chinese data on early warnings
Experts and officials from Nepal and China met in Kathmandu three months before a wall made of water, rock and mud hurled down the Himalayan valley that borders Nepal and China and killed hundreds. The agenda for the meeting, held in the capital of Nepal on May 27, included 10 Nepali officials and 12 Chinese officials, including those from the Tibet region, where the disaster occurred. They discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries to monitor and respond effectively to hazards such as floods, bad weather, and glacier-related hazards. Participants called for joint measures to reduce risk, such as inventories of glacial lakes or hazard maps. After the meeting, two Nepali officials said they had not received as much data as they wanted on glacier risks and levels of water from China and that they were worried about their ability to prepare and anticipate major disasters. We wanted to know early if there were early glacier movements and early movement around the area. This is what we still want," said Sauhardra Joshi, an hydrologist from Nepal's Flood Forecasting Division who attended the meeting in May. Experts and officials have not placed blame on either side. The natural disaster will cost Nepal's economy a tenth of its annual output. Nepali officials claim that the priority for them is to intensify their cooperation with China. The Chinese foreign ministry has not responded to a question about the meeting in May or the request by Nepal for more information exchange. CHINA SAYS ITS DATA SHARE HAS BEEN TIMELESS Last week the collapse of a glacier in Nepal's Langtang range into the valley dividing Tibet and Nepal caused a devastating flood. More than 900 people died and more than 5,000 remain missing on both sides. Before the disaster, it is not clear what information China had about the condition of the glaciers around the region. This includes those outside of its borders. Fan Xuanmei is the director of Chengdu University of Technology's State?Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection. He told China Daily that it was extremely difficult to detect such failures in advance. The potential source areas are usually above 5,000 meters, which makes conventional field monitoring difficult. Snow and ice can limit satellite observations, and the steep terrain and snow cover can also make it difficult to monitor. Monitoring equipment must operate in cold temperatures and at high altitudes. Binod Parajuli said that at the meeting in Kathmandu the Chinese did not feel they had the authority to sign an agreement to satisfy Nepal's needs and asked for further discussion. The meeting was not reported in detail, nor were the Nepalese demands for greater cooperation to monitor the glaciers which threaten the communities on both sides. In a statement posted on X, the Chinese embassy in Nepal stated that Beijing and Kathmandu have been in constant contact and made "substantial" progress at the May meeting on promoting disaster information sharing across borders. Officials said that Nepal expressed similar concerns in 2013. However, experts and officials warned that what they described as slow progress wasn't a significant cause of the latest disaster. The Chinese Embassy rejected criticisms from Nepali social media users who claimed that China failed to give adequate warning. It said Chinese and foreign experts had significant difficulties monitoring hazards in remote Himalayan regions. It said that Chinese teams shared "important information" with Nepal in a "timely manner". Last year, Nepal expressed concern about a flooding in the same region, which was triggered by a sudden release of water in Tibet from a glacial ice lake. At least nine people died in Nepal, and more than a dozen are still missing. "When China sees heavy rainfall forecasts in the Tibet region, they will provide us with that forecast and these observations," Parajuli said. But "not for extreme events such as landslides and avalanches." China started sharing heavy rain forecasts in?Tibet via WeChat and email about a month back, Parajuli explained. TIMELINE TO CALAMITY In an email sent to Nepali officials 12 days prior to the disaster, the World Meteorological Centre of China warned in an email seen by that a monsoon was predicted for the region from August 14-19. China warned that "additional rainfall will likely occur across most of Nepal. We wish to bring your attention to secondary and cascading risks, such as landslides, flash floods, but not only," The Chinese Embassy said that China had been sharing data, including on the lake formed from debris left over after last week's disaster. Discussions over data sharing highlight the difficulty of monitoring, forecasting, and providing early warnings in a region dominated by geopolitical rivals such as China and India who control remote mountainous regions that hold vast quantities of snow and ice. According to Austin Lord, senior Fellow at Washington's Stimson Center, the collapse of a glacier in an area that was relatively unmonitored was the cause of Wednesday's disaster. Lack of bilateral cooperation did not play a major role in Nepal's reaction, said Lord. "That doesn't excuse the fact that it's not really a well articulated system." There is very little exchange between Nepalese and Chinese," said Lord. He is part of the team that supports Nepal's government in disaster and climate risk reduction. "Chinese researchers have a greater capacity and have?much more resources for monitoring than the Nepalese side in general." Parajuli stated that the time it took for the torrent to reach Nepal is a good example of the importance of early warning systems. Surveillance footage has been used to define the disaster. Around 8:32 am Nepal time, on Wednesday morning, the flood swept through a border in Tibet, as people tried to flee. Parajuli received a call 26 minutes later from the head of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority alerting him about a flooding on the Trishuli River. Parajuli and his team discovered that a border station monitoring station hadn't transmitted data since 8:40. He said that the team tried contacting downstream stations but they were unable to post data. This led them to believe the devices had been washed out. Parajuli stated that after confirming the flooding with local Nepali authorities, his team sent an alert to all mobile phone users around 9:13. According to the Nepali government, at least four monitoring stations have been destroyed by the flood which swept 168 km downstream of the Nepal-China border. The flood carried 57.4 millions cubic metres (2 billion cu feet) worth of water – more than twice as much as usual. "HUGE GUSH of MUD Coming Straight at Us" According to the Stimson Center, the floodwaters that swept through Nepal damaged 19 bridges, 40 km of highway and more than 10 percent of the country's electricity generation capacity. "It wasn't water. Keshav Prasad baral, of Tupche village in the region of Tupche, 25 km (15miles) downstream from the border, said that it was a huge?gush' of mud. "I tried to grab the hand of my wife, but she was swept by the mud." According to Nepali authorities, when part of the glacier shattered and crashed to the valley's floor hundreds of meters below, it unleashed flash floods of high speed. The Hindu Kush Himalayas are home to millions of people, from Afghanistan to Myanmar. They contain the largest amount of ice in the world outside of the poles. There are 63,700 ice glaciers that cover nearly 56,000 sq km (22,200 sq miles), an area almost as large as Croatia. This ice can store up to 1,400 cubic miles (5,700 cubic km) of ice. Basanta Adhikari, Director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Nepal's Tribhuvan University, says that the glacier chunk responsible for the recent disaster contained an estimated 5,000,000 cubic metres of rock and ice. According to a study from 2023 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, climate change is driving glacier melting as snow cover decreases and snowfall becomes erratic. The centre's project states that these changes will increase the risk of flooding and landslides as mountain communities are also faced with hazards such as erosion and sedimentation. Many of Nepal's main river systems begin in Tibet and flow through one the most seismically-active and flood-prone areas of the world. Parajuli, Nepal's Minister of Home Affairs, said that Nepal will work with China on research and building systems to monitor avalanches as well as the release of water in glacial lakes - major risks to mountain communities. He said that his department would propose an agreement for data sharing with China along the lines of one Nepal has with India. This will allow more frequent information about precipitation, river levels and not only high-precipitation predictions. He said that Nepal would seek data from satellites every 10 minutes, so "we could warn and save our people." "Our primary goal is to not miss any future catastrophe."
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Data shows that Asia's diesel exports into Africa jumped in August and replaced Mideast supplies.
Data from ship trackers, and "trade" sources showed that Asia's exports of diesel to Africa were set to reach a?at a minimum a 4-1/2 year high?in august, as African buyers looked for alternative supplies after a drop in Middle East shipments. Asia had the opportunity to send supplies to Africa after the U.S. - Iran war disrupted Middle East trade, and Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis imposed a Red Sea blockade against Saudi Arabia, attacking Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery. This led to a 'decline' in Saudi exports into Africa. Data from Kpler and Vortexa, as well as a trade source, showed that Asia, including India will ship between 1.8 million and 2 million metric tonnes (13.4 million to 14.9 million barrels), of diesel to Africa in this month. The data from LSEG and Kpler showed that Middle East 'diesel exports into Africa fell in August to between 600,000 and 800,000 tonnes, the lowest level in 'almost nine years. This is due to the persistent shipping risks through the straits of Bab el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, about?50% (or 40%) of Africa's exports last year came from the Middle East. Multiple trade sources reported that a decrease in refinery operations at Saudi Aramco production sites, such as Jazan, has led to a further cap on its diesel exports. Kpler data shows that shipments from Jazan refinery in Africa dropped to zero from 163,000 tons in July. In August, traders sent more cargoes west because of a larger east-west spread or the difference between the front-month ICE gasoline and the 10ppm sulphur swaps. The front-month east-west spreads increased to minus $135 a ton, up from minus 100 in July. Alex Yap, senior oil products analyst with Energy Aspects, said that if Saudi tankers continue to avoid Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi menace, then east Africa must keep pulling barrels out of Asia because Europe will not spare anything given its current ultra-negative 'east-west spreads. He added that the arbitrage in the West will likely remain viable for the near term due to the improvement in supplies in Asia as a result of a rebound in refinery runs, and the resumed exports from China. In August, Asian refiners had averaged a diesel margin of $66 per barrel compared to $61 in July. This encouraged plants to increase production. Due to rising spot prices, the benchmark Singapore Diesel Cash Premium has fallen to its lowest level in a month. It is now around $4 per barrel.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Oil prices rise as missiles are fired in the Gulf
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. This week began with a bang in Iran, as U.S. troops struck two missile launchers in the Strait of Hormuz on Larak Island. Meanwhile, Tehran attacked U.S. Forces in Jordan. The post by President Trump that Kharg Island was Iran's main oil port, "was being blown to smithereens" did not help, though the military had not confirmed this. It seems that Iran tried to use rockets for laying naval mines in strait. This is a challenge to U.S. Military who claimed last week they had cleared the main passageway for shipping. The problem is that Iran can do this from any shore and regularly, so it will be difficult for the U.S. Brent crude oil quickly rose 2.4%, pushing the equity markets to a new high of $90 per barrel. Goldman estimates that total Gulf oil exports are 15-16 million barrels per day, which is 7 to 8 millions below the pre-war level, but 5-6 million above March's trough. The ships are allegedly travelling at night without their transponders, and therefore not being detected by tracking sites. While President Trump claimed that oil from the recently concluded deal with Venezuela would be used to replenish Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This seems optimistic, given analysts' assumption that it could take years, if not ever, before production can be increased meaningfully. Most stock markets in Asia are down, and European and U.S. futures are down 0.4% to 0.5 %. Japanese bond yields have followed the sell-off of Treasuries on Friday, as 10-year yields are again at their highest level since 1996. Markets indicate that there is a 70% probability the Bank of Japan may hike rates when it meets September 18. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered some not so subtle encouragement. The?politicians have a very busy month. New Zealand's central banks is likely to raise rates on Wednesday for the second time in a row, while the Bank of Canada will probably remain on hold due to the potential damage that a trade conflict with the U.S. can do to the Canadian economy. The markets are 'wagering heavily' on a hike by the ECB during its meeting on the 10th of September,?while implying a probability of 58% that the Federal Reserve will act on the 16th. When G20 finance minsters and central bankers meet on Monday and Tuesday in North Carolina, rates, bonds and inflation will likely be on the'menu. The markets assume that the tone of the meeting will be hawkish, with oil at $90 per barrel and the Gulf conflict not ending in sight. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact - German CPI and HICP for August G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meet
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How serious are Indonesian wildfires?
Indonesia is on high alert to prevent the devastation caused by the wildfires that are raging in the country. Indonesia has deployed cloud seeding and firefighting planes to try to stop fires and smoke spreading. This is especially true in five provinces of Borneo Island, which are home to large stretches of?peaty lands. WHAT ROLE DOES EL NINO PLAY? El Nino may not be the direct cause of fires but it can act as a catalyst. The additional heat and drying conditions allow them to spread faster. Indonesian authorities have said that the El Nino index for this year has already exceeded levels of 2015. Columbia University climate scientist James Hansen described it as "off-the-charts". According to Copernicus' climate monitoring service, which monitors the European Union, global mean sea surface temperatures rose to an unprecedented 21.1 degrees Celsius on August 22. HOW DOES INDONESIA COMPARE WITH OTHER PARTS? Wildfires have exploded in the Northern Hemisphere due to drought, causing air pollution, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions?in North America, Eurasia, and even the Arctic. After a wildfire surge that occurred in July, the United States saw homes destroyed in Nevada and Washington. Canada also had to issue evacuation orders. In southwest France, fires destroyed hundreds homes. According to EU data more than 680,000 hectares (1.68 millions acres) of land has been burned in Europe this year. According to Copernicus Fire Emissions Watch the carbon emissions from Indonesian forest fires reached 17,1 million metric tonnes in the past seven days, 429% more than the seasonal average and second only behind Russia. The data revealed that the fire emission intensity in Indonesia was 1,302kg/sqkm, compared with 185kg/sqkm in Russia. How do Indonesia's wildfires compare to 2015? In July, wildfires in Indonesia destroyed 95,000 hectares. This is nearly double the damage caused in the six months prior. The average temperature for the month was the highest it has been in 35 years. According to the fire monitoring service of the Ministry of Forestry, Sipongi, hotspots reached over 9,000 in august, a significant increase from the 5,077 in August 2015. However, it is still below the monthly record of?17302 set in October that same year. Wildfire damage is still not comparable to the devastation caused 11 years ago. Indonesian wildfires in?2015 generated more carbon dioxide daily emissions than the entire EU. Later studies estimated that the pollution from wildfires caused over 100,000 extra deaths throughout Indonesia and Malaysia. Why is Indonesia prone to fire? Indonesia has a long history of burning forests for agricultural purposes and other economic activities. Deforestation also puts Indonesia at risk, as it lowers water tables and reduces soil moisture. Borneo is a difficult place to control fires because of the vast expanses of peatland that can support blazes for much longer at lower temperatures. Indonesian authorities promised that they would focus on preventing forest fires instead of putting them out after 2015. The government crackeddown on law-breaking businesses and promised to restore the water table and rehabilitate degraded and drained peatlands. Experts say this could have contributed to the reduction of fires this year.
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Shanghai copper prices fall as fears over rate rises offset supply support
On Monday, copper fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, after bets that U.S. interest rates would rise for a longer period of time offset supply concerns. Earlier, the metal had seen a monthly increase in August. The SHFE's most traded copper "contract" fell 0.2% to 108.400 yuan (16,129.27 dollars) per ton. The London Metal Exchange was shut on Monday due to a British public holiday. Analysts at Chinese broker Galaxy Futures stated in a report that the hawkish comments by U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh about interest rates are pushing down copper prices. Warsh said in a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday that the Fed might need to?raise rates? if inflation remains above target. According to CME's FedWatch, traders on Sunday had priced in a 60% probability that the Fed would raise interest rates at its meeting in September, up from 40% just a week ago. Rates that are higher for longer can be a problem for commodities such as copper, which depend on economic growth. After Warsh's address, the dollar also rose, hovering at a two-week peak. This weighed on copper prices, which are traded in U.S. dollars, making them?more costly for buyers who use other currencies. SHFE copper, despite a slight decline on Monday, was expected to close higher in August, with a gain of 2.97%. Price has been supported due to inventory concerns, as the commodity has been sucked in by the U.S. before a possible tariff on imported refined copper. The total amount of copper in SHFE monitored warehouses was revealed on Friday. Last week, metal stocks on-warrant - those not yet marked for withdrawal – were down by more than 19%. The price of SHFE metals rose 0.13% for aluminum, 0.4% for zinc, 0.62% and 1.3% for tin. Zinc gained 5.87% in August amid concerns about supply.
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Scientists say coral bleaching occurs too often for reefs recover.
Scientists said that coral reefs experience bleaching so often, they don't have the time to recover before another one strikes. The global coral cover is now below "normal" levels and faces irreversible decline. Coral reefs are vital to the world, supporting a quarter all marine life. They also make coasts more resilient, and provide food and livelihoods to millions. But their survival is threatened by pollution, and by mass bleaching due to rising ocean temperatures. In a report that was based on data collected over 40 years from more than 37,000 reef sites in 120 countries, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, a group?of scientists?, said that there is now a five- or six-year gap between bleaching. Manuel Gonzalez Rivero, the lead author of the article, said: "They have a capacity to recover if we give them enough space." But we haven't yet seen that amount of time allowed. The frequency of these bleaching events have almost doubled. Corals can bleach when they expel the colorful algae that live in their tissues. Corals become pale, and more susceptible to disease and starvation without the algae. A bleached coral is not dead but the ocean temperature must be cooled if there is any hope for recovery. The release of the report coincides with the gathering of Pacific leaders in Palau, Monday, for their annual Pacific Islands Forum. Leaders are expected to coordinate their climate priorities ahead of the COP31 conference in December. The findings show that the climate change has a negative impact on coral reef ecosystems. Hard coral cover is down 9.5% from the historical average between 2020 and 2024. Gonzalez Rivero stated that coral cover had been relatively constant for 40 years around the globe. Since 2010, there has been an extremely steep change. STAIRCASE OF DECLINE Scientists have recorded three mass bleaching events since 2010. Reefs recover quickly when temperatures drop. Reefs recovered?6% of their coral cover between 2017 and 2019, nearly compensating for the 6.6% that was lost during the 2016 bleaching. The most recent bleaching of 2023 affected 77% of coral reefs around the world, as part of what Gonzalez?Rivero called a "staircase decline". He said that with El Nino intensifying weather patterns and ocean surface temperature reaching a record high of 21 degrees Celsius (69.98 deg F) on August 22, a second bleaching event may strike the world's coral reefs this year. The temperatures make it very likely. The report stated that rapid cuts in emissions and management of local threats -- such as unsustainable fishing or excessive coastal development -- can limit further losses. David Obura is the chair of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. He said: "We need to act now to stop this decline and invest into solutions that reduce pressures and increase resilience." Delay in action can lead to irreversible loss.
Nepal, hit by devastating floods and renewed calls for Chinese data on early warnings
Experts and officials from Nepal and China met in Kathmandu three months before the wall of water, rock and mud that hurled down a Himalayan valley bordering Nepal and China killed hundreds.
The agenda for the meeting, which took place in the capital of Nepal on May 27, included 10 Nepalese officials and 12 Chinese officials, including those from the Tibet region, where the disaster occurred. They discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries to monitor and respond effectively to hazards such as floods, bad weather, and glacier-related hazards.
Participants called for joint measures to reduce risk, such as inventories of glacial lake and hazard maps.
After the meeting,?two Nepali official said they didn't receive enough information from China?on glacier risk and water levels. They feared that insufficient data-sharing could hinder their ability to prepare and anticipate major disasters.
The May meeting was attended by Sauhardra Joshi a hydrologist at Nepal's Flood Forecasting Division.
Experts and officials have not placed blame on either side. The natural disaster will cost Nepal's economy a tenth of its annual output. Nepali officials claim that the priority for them is to intensify their cooperation with China.
China's Foreign Ministry said that the two countries have "maintained sound cooperation in the areas of meteorology and water resources, as well as disaster prevention and management".
In a press release, the Ministry said that "China will continue its strong support for Nepal's relief efforts from disasters, enhance cooperation in disaster mitigation and prevention, and safeguard common interests between the two peoples."
CHINA SAYS ITS DATA SHARE HAS BEEN TIMELESS
Last week the collapse of a glacier in Nepal's Langtang range, which divides Tibet from Nepal, caused a devastating flood. More than 900 people died and more than 5,000 remain missing on both sides.
China did not have any information about the condition of the glaciers, particularly those outside its borders.
Fan Xuanmei of Chengdu University of Technology's State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection told the state-run China Daily that it is difficult to detect such failures in advance.
The potential source areas are usually above 5,000 meters, which makes conventional field monitoring difficult. Snow and ice can limit satellite observations, and the steep terrain and snow cover can also make it difficult to monitor. Monitoring equipment must operate in cold temperatures and at high altitudes.
Binod Parajuli a Nepal government hydrologist said that at the meeting in Kathmandu the Chinese refused to sign the agreement and asked for further discussion.
The meeting was not reported in detail, nor were the Nepalese demands for greater cooperation to monitor the glaciers which threaten the communities on both sides.
China's embassy said on X that Beijing and Kathmandu remained in close communication on this issue and made "substantial" progress at the May meeting on promoting disaster information sharing across borders.
Officials said that Nepal expressed similar concerns in 2013. However, experts and officials warned that what they described as slow progress wasn't a significant cause of the latest disaster.
The Chinese Embassy rejected criticisms from Nepali social media users who claimed that China failed to give adequate warnings. It said Chinese and foreign experts had significant difficulties monitoring hazards in remote Himalayan regions.
It said that Chinese teams had "shared important information" with Nepal in a timely fashion.
Last year, Nepal expressed concern about a flooding in the same region, which was triggered by a sudden release of water in Tibet from a glacial ice lake. At least nine people died in Nepal, and more than a dozen are still missing.
Parajuli explained that "when the Chinese side notices heavy rainfall forecasts in?the Tibet region, they will provide us with this forecast and these observations." "But not for extreme events such as landslides and avalanches."
China started sharing heavy rain forecasts in Tibet via WeChat and email about a month back, according to Parajuli.
TIMELINE FOR CALAMITY
In an email sent to Nepali officials 12 days prior to the disaster, the World Meteorological Centre of China warned them that a monsoon was predicted for the region from August 14-19.
China warned that "additional rainfall will likely occur across most of Nepal. We wish to bring your attention to secondary and cascading risks, such as landslides, flash floods, but not only,"
The Chinese Embassy said that China had been sharing data, including on the lake formed from debris left over after last week's disaster.
Discussions over data sharing highlight the difficulty of monitoring, forecasting, and providing early warnings in a region dominated by geopolitical rivals such as China and India who control remote mountainous regions that hold vast quantities of snow and ice.
According to Austin Lord, senior Fellow at Washington's Stimson Center, the collapse of a glacier in an area that was relatively unmonitored was the cause of Wednesday's disaster. Lack of bilateral cooperation did not play a major role in Nepal's reaction, said Lord.
It's important to note that the lack of a properly articulated system is not an excuse. There is a very limited exchange of information between Nepal and China," Lord said, who is a member of a team that supports Nepal's Government on disaster risk and climate management.
"Chinese researchers have a greater capacity and have more resources to monitor than the Nepalese side in general."
Parajuli stated that the time it took for the torrent to reach Nepal is a good example of the importance of early warning systems.
Surveillance footage has been used to define the disaster. Around 8:32 am Nepal time, on Wednesday morning, the flood swept through a border in Tibet, as people tried to flee.
Parajuli received a phone call 26 minutes later from the head of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority alerting him about a flooding on the Trishuli River. Parajuli and his team discovered that a border monitoring station hadn't transmitted data since 8:40.
He said that the team tried to contact stations downstream, but they were unable to post data. This led them to believe the devices had been washed out.
Parajuli stated that after contacting local Nepali officials to confirm the flooding his team sent out a "public alert" to mobile phone users around 9:13.
According to the Nepali government, at least four monitoring stations have been?destroyed' by the flood which swept 168 km (104miles) downstream of the Nepal-China border. The flood carried 57.4 millions cubic metres (2 billion cu feet) worth of water, or more than twice as much as usual.
"HUGE GUSH of MUD Coming Straight at Us"
According to the Stimson Center, the floodwaters that swept through Nepal damaged 19 bridges, 40 km of highway and more than 10 percent of the country's electricity generation capacity.
"It wasn't ?water. Keshav Baral, a resident of Tupche Village about 25 km (15miles) downstream from the border, described a massive gush coming straight at them. "I tried grabbing my wife's hands, but she was swept by the mud."
According to Nepali authorities, when a part of the glacier shattered, it crashed to the valley floor hundreds of meters below. This caused high-speed floods.
The Hindu Kush Himalayas are home to millions of people, from Afghanistan to Myanmar. They contain the largest amount of ice in the world outside of the poles. There are 63,700 ice glaciers that cover nearly 56,000 sq km (22,200 sq miles), an area almost as large as Croatia. This ice can store up to 1,400 cubic miles (5,700 cubic km) of ice.
According to Basanta Adhikari, Director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Nepal's Tribhuvan University, the glacier that caused the recent disaster contained an estimated 5,000,000 cubic metres of ice, rock and mud.
According to a study from 2023 by the International Centre 'for Integrated Mountain Development, climate change is driving glacier melting as snow cover decreases and snowfall becomes erratic.
The centre's project states that these changes will increase the risk of flooding and landslides as mountain communities are also faced with hazards such as erosion and sedimentation.
Many of Nepal's main river systems begin in Tibet and flow through one the most seismically-active and flood-prone areas of the world.
Parajuli, Nepal's Minister of Home Affairs, said that Nepal will work with China on research and building systems to monitor avalanches as well as the release of water in glacial lakes - major risks to mountain communities.
He said that his department would propose an agreement for data sharing with China along the lines of one Nepal has with India. This will allow more frequent information about precipitation, river levels and not only high-precipitation predictions.
He said that Nepal would seek data from satellites every 10 minutes, so "we could warn and save our people." "Our primary goal is to not miss any future catastrophe."
(source: Reuters)