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Global oil demand won't peak until 2032, Wood Mackenzie report says

Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, said that the peak in global oil demand would not occur until 2032. This is two years later than previously thought. The report, released on Wednesday, blamed continued growth in the use and production of hydrocarbons in transport, petrochemicals, and other applications.

Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Outlook states that the 2050 goal of net zero is no longer achievable due to the increasing dependence on fossil fuels as a result of artificial intelligence, geopolitical tensions and increased power demands.

The report is released ahead of the COP30 meeting, which will take place in Brazil next month. At this meeting, countries will be expected to update their national climate commitments as well as assess progress made on renewable energy targets.

By the Numbers

The report stated that the demand for liquid hydrocarbons will peak at 108 millions barrels of oil per day by 2032, with the natural gas market remaining strong well into the 2020s.

The report stated that China's oil demand was 16 million bpd by 2025. However, rising adoption of electric vehicles could cause the demand to fall by 35% by 2030. India, Southeast Asia, and Africa continue to be the main drivers of oil consumption growth.

Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows that to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, $4.3 trillion annually in investment would be required between 2025-2060. This is a 30% increase from current levels.

The energy sector investment must therefore grow from 2,5% of the global GDP to 3.35% in the next decade.

KEY QUOTES

The Wood Mackenzie Report stated that "Fossil Fuels are no long uncontested. They are being squeezed to narrower roles but their decline has been more gradual than anticipated."

Why it's important

The energy transition aims to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 C (2,7 F) over preindustrial levels by replacing fossil fuels with clean renewable power.

The slower pace of energy transition and stronger-than-expected crude demand are making this shift harder. (Reporting and editing by Alex Lawler, Conor Humphries, and Seher Dareen from London)

(source: Reuters)