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Report: Brazil's main sugar-producing state could face extreme heat, which would reduce cane yields

EarthDaily reported on Thursday that Brazil's Sao Paulo State, which produces half of Brazil's sugarcane production, will likely face extreme heat and dry conditions next week, resulting in a further reduction of crop yields.

The satellite-based agricultural monitor firm warned in advance of the increased fire risk in canefields due to the dry conditions.

EarthDaily reported that "Climate model predictions point to an upcoming heat wave with temperatures averaging around 39degC (102/degF), which would likely worsen losses in sugarcane production and increase the risk of fires."

This warning comes at a time when Brazil's sugar belt in the center and south is grappling with lower agricultural productivity for the 2025/26 harvest due to adverse weather conditions during planting in 2024.

According to the Sugarcane Technology Center, through July, the productivity of the 2025/26 cycle was 9.8% lower than the previous cycle, at 79.8 tons per hectare. Total Recoverable Sugar, a key quality measure, fell 3% to 125.2 kilograms per ton.

EarthDaily's data showed that the vegetation index in certain areas had also deteriorated.

EarthDaily's crop analyst Felippe Reis said that the combination of intense heat, and in particular drought, is negatively impacting plant development.

EarthDaily reported that both the ECMWF climate model and the GFS forecast temperatures above average across the majority of Brazil within the next few months.

EarthDaily reported that in other parts of central-south including Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul the rain throughout August interrupted sugarcane harvesting for several days.

Reis stated that the month would likely end with at the very least three days' worth of harvesting activity being halted in the area, which could reduce the amount of cane available to be crushed and affect the rate of sugar and alcohol production. Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Oliver Griffin, Editing by David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)