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Prices largely stable but market risks persist

The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas were mostly stable on Friday, as Norwegian flows stabilized and the low demand allowed storage to be refilled. However, the tighter market conditions continued to support these prices.

LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was up 0.26 euros at 35.18 Euro per megawatt hour or $11.68/mmBtu at 0816 GMT.

Auxilione, a consultancy, said that with the June contract ending on Friday, market attention is now shifted to July.

The Dutch July contract increased by 0.14 euros to 35.40 Euro/MWh.

The British front-month contracts were down 1.21 pence, at 83.25 pence/therm. Meanwhile, the weekend contracts were down 1.20 pence, at 82.30 pence/therm.

Saku Jussila, LSEG analyst, said that prices are now largely at the same levels as before a Norwegian maintenance period which began last week.

Data from infrastructure operators Gassco revealed that the total Norwegian export nominated volumes were down from 296 mcm/d (million cubic metres/day) on Thursday morning to 292 mcm/d by Friday morning.

Analysts at Jefferies Equity Research stated in a monthly report that TTF gas prices rose almost 10% in May, driven by concerns about tariffs, the weather and the risk of further delays for upcoming LNG projects.

They said that the gas demand in North-West Europe fell by 7%, or 33 mcm/day, over the last eight weeks.

Analysts added that although the overall filling level is 19% or 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) below the five-year average, it has been higher than the average for the past five years.

They said: "We continue seeing a tighter market in '25 due to increased European injection demand, lost Russian pipe imports (15bcm/yr) and LNG project delay."

Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that European gas storage sites are 47.2% full.

The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up by 0.20 euros at 71.14 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli, reporting from Oslo; Nina Chestney, editing)

(source: Reuters)