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Tokyo Steel maintains product prices in September
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing, Japan's largest electric-arc furnace producer, said it would leave the prices of its steel products unchanged in September. This will help to bring the market back up after a period when demand was weak. This is the fourth month in a row that steel products have not seen a change in price, including its H-shaped beams. Prices for steel bars and rebar will remain unchanged at 85,000 yen (US$577) per metric ton in September. H-shaped beams, however, will be priced at 112,000 ($760) per ton. The company reported that domestically, steel activity in construction remains low due to a persistent shortage of labour and limited working hours. Meanwhile, steel shipments remain slow for the manufacturing sector as the market evaluates the impact U.S. Tariffs. Although U.S. trade negotiations with other countries are moving forward, the steel industry remains cautious because no agreement has been reached with China. In a recent statement, the company stated that political instability, regional conflict, and protectionist policies are all contributing to the uncertainty on the steel market. Tokyo Steel's pricing has been closely monitored by Asian competitors such as South Korea’s Posco, Hyundai Steel and China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd.
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Copper prices are affected by a stronger dollar ahead of geopolitical events
The copper price fell on Monday, due to the stronger dollar. There was also uncertainty about a key event that will affect U.S. interest rate forecasts and a meeting of U.S. president Donald Trump with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy. By 1002 GMT, the price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange had fallen by 0.3% to $9.742.50 per metric ton. EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: "The week began with a cautious note for base metals. The markets are awaiting the Trump-Zelenskiy meetings as well as any interest rates signals from the Fed Jackson Hole Meetings." Trump will meet Zelenskiy Monday after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday. Trump's team said on Sunday that both sides had to make compromises, as Trump wants Ukraine to accept an agreement to end Europe's bloodiest war in 80-years. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week, metals priced in dollars are more expensive. The metals markets are still digesting the data released last week by China, the world's largest consumer of metals. This showed that China's factory output fell to a record low in July. "After stronger-than-expected growth in China earlier this year, demand is now slowing, as front-loading ahead of tariffs has now come to an end," Manthey said. LME tin increased 0.4%, to $33,785 per metric ton. Low tin stocks in LME registered warehouses are supporting the metal. The two-year low is 1,655 tonnes, a drop of 65% this year. The spread between the LME cash price and the three-month contract for tin The price of a barrel of oil on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $63 Friday, up from $48 last week. This indicates that there is a shortage of nearby supplies. LME aluminium dropped 0.7% to 2,589.50 per metric ton. Zinc fell 0.6% to 2,777, lead dropped 0.5% to 1,970.50 and nickel declined 0.4% to 15,100. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Additional reporting by Amy Lv)
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South Africa's artisanal mining community wants a stake in the critical minerals boom
The artisanal coal miners demand formalisation The informal mining sector wants a share of the critical mineral boom The new bill seeks to legalise the work of these people By Kim Harrisberg Mooi Masuku is one of them. He has been an artisanal miner for 17 years. He says a bill to legalise the informal mining industry is crucial to creating and protecting jobs, especially as green technologies are aiming to use critical minerals. "In South Africa I think that the government will start to understand why (artisanal mining), to protect these jobs, should be legalised," said Masuku as he sat on a slab of concrete outside his house in the Nomzamo settlement, in the township of Ermelo. He said, "We want work and we want it legally." The last week of the month, public comments on the Mineral Resource Development Bill were closed. It will now be reviewed by parliament before becoming law. South Africa has a lot of coal reserves. However, as the country shifts away from coal-based industries that are harmful to the planet and towards renewables, both formal and unofficial miners fear massive unemployment. Mining experts, however, say that the industry will not disappear overnight. According to the Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy of the United States, coal used for steel production is a critical mineral. This is similar to the position taken by Chris Wright, U.S. Secretary Energy, in May. This is in stark contrast to the majority of other countries, who view coal as a fossil fuel from which the world has agreed to "transition" away at U.N. Climate Talks COP28 in Dubai in 2023. South Africa has a wealth of other minerals, more commonly referred to as "critical", like manganese and copper. These are needed for the green energy infrastructure such as solar panels and windmills. According to the National Association of Artisanal Miners, of which Masuku belongs, small-scale and artisanal miners are eligible for this type of extraction. Zethu Hlatshwayo, NAAM spokesperson, said: "The critical mineral growth should benefit artisanal miners... we wish to mine all minerals under our feet." Fill the Employment Vacancy Hlatshwayo said that upskilling artisanal miner for critical mineral mining would fill the employment gap left by the phase-out of coal. According to the book Regional Policy of the Southern African Development Community, there are approximately 20,000 artisanal miner in South Africa. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy states that the figures are not accurate and may be considered an underestimate, as there hasn't been a proper baseline study. Government data revealed that the coal industry is responsible for about 400,000 jobs, ranging from informal and formal miners to street vendors who sell food to them. According to the Regional Policies in the Southern African Development Community, unregulated artisanal mining is associated with criminality, such as soil erosion, and environmental damage, including mineral smuggling. Global Witness, a human rights organization, says that the abuses should be removed from the supply chain and not by the artisanal miner. Masuku said that creating safe jobs was crucial in a nation with a 33% unemployment rate, according to data from the government. NAAM also advocates for the local processing of minerals in South Africa, rather than exporting raw materials. This will bring more financial benefits to South Africans. Bill Pros and Cons The Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRD) proposes a formal regulation of artisanal and small scale miners. This includes the issuance of permits and creation designated artisanal mine zones. Kangwa Chisanga Jr. is an advocate at the National Institute of Public Administration in Zambia. He teaches legal studies and advocates that formalisation can boost job creation and improve miner safety. He said that artisanal mining could be a future industry for critical minerals. Chisanga Jr. said that this bill would be a good option if there was a common goal between government and mining companies to promote environmentally sustainable mining. There is also criticism of the bill. Chisanga Jr. said that the requirements for legalisation could be over-regulated, and scare away investors, as well as increase illegal mining. NAAM stated that the bill is still too vague and limits artisanal miner to surface mining. It also risks putting costs of rehabilitation, such as sealing off mine shafts and planting vegetation, on artisanal miner. "We're concerned that the application process for permits will be long and expensive," said Bonginkosi Buthulezi. He is an artisanal miner in Ermelo, and a member of NAAM. AgriSA, a national agricultural organization, has also reacted against the bill, stating that a rise in artisanal mines poses a threat to water quality, agriculture and food security. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has not responded to any requests for comments. While NAAM awaits the outcome of its feedback regarding the bill, it will continue to campaign to have mining companies seen as allies, not enemies, by the government.
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India proposes three-year import tariffs on certain steel products
India has proposed a tariff of 11-12 percent on certain steel products for a period of three years to reduce shipments by China, the world's largest producer. If a levy is imposed, it will begin at 12%. The levy will then be reduced to 11.5% the second year, and 11% the third. This was announced by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies in a 16th August notification. The notification stated that "the Authority concludes there has been a recent, abrupt, sharp, and significant increase in imported steel," adding that it could result in serious harm to the domestic sector. The DGTR said that because of the 50% tariffs on imports to the U.S. and similar measures taken by other countries, the bulk of the steel volume is held by manufacturers around the world. "Therefore the safeguard duty should address not only the serious injury sustained by the domestic industry...but the threat of future serious injury." After preliminary findings, the Indian government will make a final recommendation. April is a month of celebrations. A temporary tariff of 12% was imposed for 200 days On Monday, Japanese steel industry lobby groups requested that measures be taken to protect their domestic industry from unfair imports. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariffs for steel have sparked a wave in trade frictions with China, as countries such as South Korea and Vietnam have imposed anti-dumping levies.
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Focus on Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting and Gold Gains
The gold price rose on Monday as a result of lower U.S. Treasury rates, and market participants waited for the outcome. Donald Trump, President of the United States Meeting Later in the day, we will be meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European Leaders. As of Monday morning, 0840 GMT, spot gold rose 0.4% to $3348.28 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since 1 August. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.3% to $3393.40. The firm tone in gold prices returned today, with the market nipping the $3350 level. "The combination of soft yields (and) a weaker Dollar would create a tailwind to gold," said Ross Norman, an independent analyst. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields dropped from over two-week highs. Zelenskiy will be joined by European leaders on the geopolitical stage. Talks with Trump Later on Monday, we will discuss the best way to go about negotiating a deal to end this dispute. Between Russia and Ukraine Sources briefed about Moscow's thinking say that under the peace proposals discussed at Friday's Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, and Donald Trump, Kyiv will cede large swathes in its east which Moscow is unable to capture. "Front-running geopolitical headlines would be unwise at this time, given that any outcome is possible. Norman said that if there was any sense of easing tensions in Ukraine, we could expect a modest drop in gold prices. Investors will also be watching the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium for clues about Fed's interest rates path. The Fed is expected to announce its first rate cut of the year in September. A second cut could be announced by year's end. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Other than that, silver spot was up by 0.2% to $38.08 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $1335.06 per ounce and palladium rose 0.6% to $1118.92. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; editing by Mark Heinrich)
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Thungela expects thermal coal production to be curtailed across the industry due to lower prices
South African coal miner Thungela CEO July Ndlovu, who is leaving his position on Monday, said that global thermal coal producers will reduce output due to low prices of the fossil fuel and an uncertain economic outlook. South Africa's largest thermal coal exporter has reported a 80% drop in profit, to 248 million Rand ($14 million), in the six-month period ending June 30. This is primarily due to lower fuel prices. Thungela stated that geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs and economic growth were all impacted by the disruption of global supply chains. Ndlovu or the company did not elaborate. Thermal coal prices are also under pressure due to a global switch from polluting fuels to cleaner sources of energy, and increased production in the top import markets China & India. Ndlovu stated that the low prices could lead to further production cuts after major producers from Indonesia and Colombia reduced production, while Australia's production suffered due to accidents and bad weather. Ndlovu stated that "further production cuts are likely to help rebalance supply and demand on the seaborne markets." "I expect that supply discipline will continue." The miner stated that the average thermal coal export price in South Africa and Australia fell by 11% and 9%, respectively, during the first half 2025. Thungela expects to produce between 12.8 and 13.6 million tons of thermal coal in South Africa and between 3.7 and 4.1 millions tons at its Ensham Mine in Australia this year.
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European stocks and US dollar fall as traders focus on Ukraine talks
The U.S. Dollar and European shares both shook on Monday, ahead of a week that is expected to be eventful for U.S. rate policy. Oil prices also remained subdued because the risks associated with Russian supply seemed to have diminished. Early trading saw little change in the pan-European STOXX 600 Index after it reached its highest level since last March on Friday. The MSCI All Country World Index was hovering near the record high set last week. In the early Asian session, an optimistic mood led to record highs for indices in Japan, Taiwan, and China. A gauge of Chinese stocks also reached its highest level since a decade. Investors are preparing for U.S. president Donald Trump to meet with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders on Monday evening to discuss next steps in ending the war in Ukraine. This follows Trump's Friday summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump, despite the fact that there was no agreement at the summit, appeared to be more in line with Moscow regarding a peace deal for Ukraine rather than a first ceasefire. The main economic event this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place between August 21 and 23, at the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the economy outlook and central bank policy. The markets are pricing in a chance of around 85% for a rate cut by a quarter point at the Fed meeting on September 17. They also price in a further easing before December. Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said that he saw three rate cuts this year in the U.S., a slower GDP but no recession. The combination of these two factors should allow the rally continue. Stock markets have been buoyed by the prospect of lower borrowing rates globally. Japan's Nikkei has reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.3% after reaching a record high of four years last week. Commerzbank's 3.7% drop dragged down the DAX in Europe. The FTSE in Britain was flat. Solid Earnings S&P futures slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq was flat. Both were at all-time highs. The valuations have been supported by a strong earnings season, as S&P 500 EPS grew 11 % on the year. 58% of companies also raised their guidance for the full-year. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. While Nvidia is yet to release its earnings, Magnificent Seven grew their EPS in 2Q by 26% compared to the same period last year, which was a 12% improvement over expectations going into earnings season. Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all report this week. The possibility of Fed easing keeps short-term Treasury rates down, while the longer end of the curve is under pressure from the threat of stagflation, and huge budget deficits. This has led to the steepest yield curvature since 2021. The prospect of higher borrowing for increased defence spending has also pushed German long-term rates to record highs. The dollar has been impacted by bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.4% last week against a basket currency to end at 97.858. The dollar remained flat against the yen, at 147.24. Meanwhile, the euro stayed at $1.17 despite adding 0.5% to its value last week. The dollar is doing better than its New Zealand counterpart, as it's widely expected that the central bank will cut rates on Wednesday to 3.0%. Gold, the most important commodity, rose 0.5%, to $3,343 per ounce, after falling 1.9% in the previous week. The oil prices fell as Trump backed down from his threats to impose more restrictions on Russian exports. However, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro stated that India's purchases were funding Russia's conflict in Ukraine. Brent was unchanged at $65.81 per barrel while U.S. crude remained steady at $62.81 a barrel.
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Aluminum tariffs are reduced as the US adds derivative products to its 50% list
Aluminum prices in Shanghai, London and other major cities fell on Monday as the United States imported more derivatives of the metal under the 50% import tax, which distorted the outlook for demand. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract closed the daytime trading 0.68% lower, at 20,600 Yuan ($2,869) a metric ton. In the early part of the session, the contract reached 20,550 yuan. This was its lowest level since 6 August. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.65%, to $2,590 per ton, as of 8am GMT, after reaching its lowest level since August 12. The Trump administration expanded the scope of its tariffs of 50% on imports of steel and aluminum on Friday by adding hundreds more derivative products to their list of goods that are subject to levies. On August 18, the levies will be implemented on all goods included on the expanded list. A Singapore-based aluminium dealer said that "Sentiment soured" after Trump's new Tariff plans. The trader, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak with media, said that the rising inventory pressured prices. The increased supply of aluminium in China, which rose by 0.6% to 3,78 million tons from a year ago, also pushed up the price. Customs data shows that China's imports in July of unwrought aluminum and its products grew 38.2% compared to the previous year. SHFE Zinc fell by 0.8%, Lead shed 0.3%. Copper slipped 0.01%. Nickel slid by 0.29%. Tin gained 0.17%. The LME's other base metals have also declined. Lead fell 0.53%. Nickel dropped 0.47%. Tin lost 0.13%. Zinc shed 0.45%.
What is in the Republican tax plan and spending plan
The Republican-led House of Representatives passed a comprehensive budget package which would meet many of the priorities of President Donald Trump. Next, the Republican-led Senate will take up the package with likely significant changes.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has summarized the main elements of this package. According to them, the deficit would increase by $3.8 trillion over a period of 10 years. The estimates of CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation for some elements below are likely to be revised in the coming weeks.
Tax Breaks and Tax Cuts
(Cost: $2.2 trillion) Makes permanent lower income tax rates that were set to expire in Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. (Cost: $2.2 trillion)
Increases the alternative minimum tax exemption. (Cost: $1.4 trillion)
(Cost: $1.3 trillion) Increases the standard deduction by $1,000 up to $1,500. (Cost: $1.3 trillion)
Increases the tax breaks for "pass-through businesses" such as LLCs and sole proprietorships. (Cost: $809 billion)
Increases the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $2,500 until 2029 and then keeps it at $2,000, indexes to inflation. (Cost: $797 billion)
Raising the exemption for estate taxes from $14 to $15 million. (Cost: $212 billion)
Extends tax benefits for multinational corporations. (Cost: $174 billion)
Tax exemptions on overtime pay through 2029. (Cost: $124 billion)
Creates new $4,000 deductions for seniors. (Cost: $72 billion)
Tax exemptions on interest payments for loans to domestic autos up until 2029. (Cost: $58 billion)
Tax exemptions on certain tipped income until the year 2029. (Cost: $40 billion)
Contributions to private school scholarship funds are exempt up to $5,000. (Cost: $20.4 billion)
Parents can contribute up to $5k tax-free per year to a "Trump Account" that will be used to pay for their child's education and other expenses when they become adults. (Cost: $17.2 billion)
Taxpayers can now deduct up $40,000 in state and local taxes (SALT), up from the current $10,000. Benefits will gradually be phased out for households earning more than $500,000. (Cost not known at this time)
SAVINGS AND NEW REVENUES
Extended 2017 deadline for the elimination of personal exemption deduction. (Savings: $1.9 trillion)
Tax breaks for green energy, electric vehicles and clean electricity are eliminated. Savings are unknown at this time.
Restriction of health benefits for certain immigrants. (Savings: $117 billion)
Increases eligibility requirements for Affordable Care Act Exchange coverage. (Savings: $82 billion)
Taxes on private university endowments are raised from 1.4% up to 21%. (New revenue: $22.6 billion)
Imposes a new tax of 5% on money sent home by immigrants. (New revenue of $22,2 billion) Removes firearm silencers from the national registry and eliminates taxes on their sales. (Cost: $1.4 billion)
Tax on firearms manufacturers is eliminated
Gives the government the power to end the tax-exempt status of "terrorist-supporting organizations."
Total cost of tax reductions: $5.6 TRILLION
MEDICAID
Adults who are able-bodied and do not have dependents must work, volunteer, or attend school for at least 80 hours per month beginning in 2027.
The verification process is strengthened to ensure that participants and healthcare providers can participate. Rules that facilitate enrollment are removed.
The program excludes non-citizens and penalizes the states who use their own money to cover illegal immigrants.
The regulations that require minimum staffing in nursing homes and long-term care facilities have been blocked.
Funding for gender-transition therapies for minors is prohibited.
Prohibit payments to large providers such as Planned Parenthood who specialize in birth control and reproductive health services.
Limit state taxes on providers used to raise federal contribution.
Total savings: $715 Billion. Enrollment will drop at least 7.7 millions people from the current level of 71,000,000 people.
ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT COMMUNICATIONS
Cancels funding of green-energy grant programmes in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. This includes vehicle manufacturing, home energy upgrades, electricity transmission and wind power.
Encourages pipelines, exports of natural gas and exploration.
Rejecting grant programs for electric heavy-duty vehicle purchases
Rejecting grants for reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Rejecting fuel efficiency standards for cars and pickup trucks
More electromagnetic spectrum bands available for communication.
The law prohibits the states from regulating artificial Intelligence.
Total savings: $197 Billion
HOMELAND SECURITY
Cost of border wall construction: $46.5 billion
Cost: $6.3 billion for surveillance towers, drones, and border-security equipment
Cost: $6.2 billion. Increase the number of staff at U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Cost: 46,400 employees to 55,000).
Cost: $300 Million)
Reimburse the states for border security costs. ($12 billion)
Total cost: $79 Billion
IMMIGRATION & JUSTICE
Imposes new fees up to $5,000 on immigrants' work permits and court hearings.
The funding will be used to hire 10,000 additional immigration enforcement officers and fund 1 million deportations.
Additional funds are provided to government agencies for the investigation of visa fraud, criminal background checks, DNA testing and supervision of unaccompanied children.
The federal courts are prohibited from issuing contempt citations against the government for injunctions and temporary restraining order.
Total savings of $110 billion
MILITARY
Spending on shipbuilding to increase (Cost: 32 billion dollars)
Air and missile defence (Cost: 24 billion dollars)
Munitions (Cost : $19.5 billion).
Nuclear weapons (Cost : $12.6 billion).
Cost: $5 billion
Total cost: $144 Billion
FOOD ASSISTANCE
Some of the 41 millions participants in the SNAP program will have to work more hours
In 2028, the federal government will begin to shift some costs to the states.
Savings of $230 billion
EDUCATION
Changes to student loan repayment plans: Savings of $295 billion
Limits on borrowing for certain student loan programs
Restrictions on eligibility for Pell Grants
Limits on the government's cancellation of student debt (Savings : $32 billion).
Total savings: $349 Billion (Reporting and editing by Andy Sullivan, Bill Berkrot Alistair Bell, Andrea Ricci, Scott Malone)
(source: Reuters)