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Conab raises its forecast for Brazil's crop of coffee, seeing an 'off-year record'

Conab, the national food agency, said that Brazil's total coffee production in 2025 is expected to reach 55.7 million 60-kilogram bag. Citing a recovery in robusta production, Conab increased its forecast by 7.5% over its January estimate.

Conab stated that the new forecast was also 2.7% more than the 2024 crop. This represents an all-time record for the total output of coffee during an "off year" in the bi-annual arabica cycle which alternates years with higher and lower production.

Conab stated that the higher forecast was mainly due a recovery of conilon crops - a robusta coffee variety.

The statement stated that the good estimate of the total harvest was influenced mainly by the 28,3% recovery in average yields for Conilon crops. It added that robusta production is expected to rise 27,9% on an annual basis to a record 18,7 million bags.

Conab stated that "this result is due to the consistent climate during the most crucial phases of the crops which has benefited positive blooming and a large quantity of fruits per cluster."

In 2023, when Arabica was in its previous low year, total production should be 1.1% greater than it is today.

Conab anticipates that yields will be higher by 4.1% this year than they were in 2024, at 30 bags/hectare. This is also higher than the 28 bags/hectare Conab projected in January. The area of production, however, is expected to grow 0.8%, to 2,25 million hectares (8.687 square miles).

The agency reported that the production of Arabica coffee is expected to be 37 million bags. This represents a 6.6% decline from the previous crop, but it's still well above the initial estimate for this year (34.7 million). Reporting by Leticia Ficuchima and Isabel Teles, Additional reporting by Oliver Griffin and Editing by Gabriel Araujo Mark Porter and Margueritachoy

(source: Reuters)