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Focus on mining data and the upcoming Ramaphosa Trump meeting to boost South African rands
South Africa's currency, the rand, edged higher against a weaker US dollar on Thursday morning after President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that he will meet with Donald Trump of the United States next week. This follows days of speculation. At 0622 GMT the rand was trading at 18,22 per dollar, which is 0.3% higher than the closing price of Wednesday. The presidency stated that Ramaphosa’s meeting with Trump will provide a forum to reset the strategic relationships between the two nations, who have been at odds ever since Trump returned to Washington in January. Investors will be focusing on the March gold and mining production figures, which are due at 0930 GMT. According to economists polled, they expect a fifth successive contraction. In a recent research note, Nedbank economists said that mining is also struggling with unfavourable supply conditions at home and a global economy that has become more subdued. They added that this sector would likely slow down the economic growth of the country in the first quarter 2025. Early deals for South Africa's benchmark government bond of 2030 were little changed, with the yield increasing by 0.5 basis points. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Sfundo parakozov)
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Conférence delegates claim that China has plenty of cobalt, despite the Congo ban
The Chinese cobalt industry has ample supplies of battery-making materials despite an export ban placed by the top producer in the world, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), late in February. This was revealed this week at a conference for the industry. Shirley Wang, General Manager at Shanghai Metals Market and Cobalt Congress 2020 in Singapore, said that downstream users in China - the largest consumer of the metal - have intermediate product stocks that will last for between two weeks to six months. Wang stated on Thursday that "large-scale users" in China have six months' worth of stock, while small-scale businesses, who only have half a month's worth, will be forced to purchase from the spot markets at higher prices. Congo's four-month ban on exports was imposed to combat global oversupply of metals used in the manufacture of batteries for electric cars and mobile phones and to revive prices. The ban helped to raise cobalt prices from $10 per pound at the end 2024, up to $16 today. Wang stated that Chinese traders have also stocked up on cobalt, a total volume equivalent to 12 month's demand. On the sidelines, four delegates from Chinese cobalt smelters stated that their supplies of cobalt were stable and not affected by Congo's prohibition. One of the four delegates stated that the stockpiles could peak in June since it takes about four months for the cobalt from Congo mines to reach Chinese port. Patrick Luabeya said that the Congo may implement strict cobalt restrictions when the current ban on exports ends. In an interview, Kizito Pakaabomba, Congo's Mines Minister, stated that the ban was to ensure that the supply met the demand. However, we noticed that the supply had not been affected by the consumers. According to Wang, Shanghai Metals Market's director, the cobalt surplus is expected to continue through 2025. The total supply will increase by 6%, to 327,000 tons, due to cobalt being produced as a cobalt byproduct of nickel and copper mining. Wang estimates that cobalt demand will be about 237,000 tonnes this year, an increase of 0.3% over 231,000 tons in the previous year. She said that the oversupply will likely persist at least until 2030. In 2030, supply is expected to be 390,000 tonnes and demand 264,000 tons. Indonesia, the world's second largest cobalt producer is planning to double its capacity by 2027, and does not plan to limit supply, said a government official this week. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Tom Hogue and Hongmei Li)
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Norway GDP growth faster than expected Q1
Statistics Norway (SSB), on Thursday, released data showing that the Norwegian economy's growth was faster than expected in the first quarter 2025. In the January-March timeframe, mainland GDP increased by 1.0% in comparison to October-December. The economists polled had predicted a growth of 0.6%. The Norwegian crown currency rose against the Euro to 11,62 at 0609 GMT, from 11,63 before the release of data. spring budget proposal The central bank of Norway had predicted that the economy on the Norwegian mainland would grow by 0.6% during the first quarter, compared to the last three months in 2024 when it contracted by 0.4%. Norges Bank kept interest rates the same last week On Hold Analysts unanimously predicted that the rate would reach a high of 4.50% in 17 years, reflecting an inflationary resurgence which has prevented policymakers from reducing borrowing costs. Despite the uncertainty surrounding future economic development, the central bank stated that the policy rate was likely to be reduced by 2025. The most common measure of the Norwegian economy's performance is Mainland GDP. This excludes oil and gas production which can have a volatile impact. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Louise Breusch Rasmussen)
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CEZ proposes a dividend above the range and first-quarter profits are higher than estimates
CEZ, the Czech electric company, proposed a dividend of 47 crowns ($2.11) for each share on Thursday. This is 80% less than last year's profit. It was also lower than a previous payout 52 crowns. Dividends are paid out at a rate of 60 to 80 percent of net profit, which is the typical payout for the company. CEZ's shares closed at 1,194 crowns on Wednesday and are up 30% over the last year. CEZ reported earlier this year a 9% decline in the 2024 adjusted net profits to 31.8 billion crowns. It confirmed on Thursday its outlook for the year 2025, and is expecting a net profit adjusted between 25 billion crowns to 29 billion crowns. CEZ reported that its adjusted net profit for the first quarter fell by 6%, to 12.7 billion crowns. This was due to higher depreciation. A poll showed that the average estimate was for adjusted profit to be 10.4 billion crowns. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA), which is a measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, rose by 7% on an annual basis in the third quarter, to 43 billion crowns. CEZ's EBITDA forecast for 2025 was slightly raised to 127-132 billion crowns, up from 137.5 billion crowns, due to lower electricity prices. CEZ is unlikely to pay the windfall tax this year. The tax was introduced in response to energy price spikes after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. CEZ has pre-sold two-thirds or its anticipated 2026 generation at a price of 94 euros on average per MWh. This compares to an assumed average realized price of 120-125 euros for 2025.
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As markets wait for US data, stocks ease and the dollar trembles.
The dollar fell as traders looked to U.S. economic data for more catalysts. Brent crude futures fell more than 2% and U.S. Crude also dropped. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached a new high, partly due to concerns over the budget plan of President Donald Trump that will add trillions to U.S. debt. The week began with a slew of positive news for investors, from a truce in the U.S.-China Trade War to a slew of investment deals that made headlines from the Middle East on Trump's Gulf Tour. These moves breathed new energy into battered international stocks. The optimism of Thursday has largely faded, with MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan down 0.15%. Wall Street futures are also slightly lower after marginal gains in the overnight cash session. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said, "We had a big party and everyone was hungover. Now we are just recovering and waiting for the next party." The U.S.-China trade agreement gave the markets some cause to celebrate, but the lack of clarity regarding Trump's policies on trade has left the markets with an underlying sense of uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Investors also awaited further details on trade agreements with other countries. "I feel there's a bit of a hesitation to move the market up from here," Sycamore said. "I do not think that foreign investors will rush back to their overweight positions in U.S. stocks because that confidence has been shaken by the events of the last couple of months. Both from tariffs and legislators." The European market was also set for a gloomy start. EUROSTOXX Futures were down 0.17%, while DAX Futures fell 0.23%. FTSE Futures were not much changed. The Nikkei Index fell by 0.85% in Japan. China's CSI300 blue chip index fell 0.63%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.55%. Investors are waiting for Walmart's earnings and sales data for Thursday to get a sense of the consumer mood. Walmart is a bellwether retailer for the U.S. industry. A poor result could fuel fears of a global recession, which would drag down markets. Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also speak. The focus of his speech will be any clues about the outlook for U.S. interest rates. DOLLAR FRAGILE The dollar struggled to maintain its gains from the beginning of the week. It fell 0.55% to 145.99 yen. The euro increased by 0.2% to $1.1193. The Korean won was particularly volatile for the second consecutive day after the news broke that South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi Jiyoung had met with Robert Kaproth (assistant secretary for international finance at the U.S. Treasury) to discuss the dollar/won exchange rate on May 5. Bloomberg's report that Washington was not negotiating a weaker currency as part of the tariff talks calmed currency markets. However, investors remain wary that Washington may be pursuing a similar strategy. The recent moves in won were similar to the unprecedented rise in the Taiwan dollar at the beginning of this month. Last, the dollar dropped more than 0.8% versus the won to 1,395.52. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that while details were scarce and discussions of this nature may have been part of an ongoing dialogue, the situation brought to light how undervalued currencies could appreciate in a weaker-dollar environment. After data showed Australian employment exceeded expectations in April, the Aussie surged before paring back some of these gains. Last time it bought $0.6432. Spot gold dropped 1.2% elsewhere to $3,141.16 per ounce.
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Australia's NRW Holdings plunges after warning of $73 million impairment
Shares in Australia's NRW Holdings dropped as much as 24 percent to a two-year low Thursday after the company warned that a proposed legislation regarding Whyalla Ports assets could result in a loss of A$113.3 millions ($73 million) As of 0442 GMT, shares of the infrastructure services company were down 9.3% to A$2.635. Stock was the biggest laggard in the ASX 200 benchmark, which rose 0.2%. The South Australian Government drafted legislation earlier this week that could invalidate the lease agreement granted to Whyalla Ports Pty by OneSteel Manufacturing Pty. The bill proposes to allow OneSteel the right to acquire Whyalla Ports assets without compensating them. In February, NRW unit Golding Contractors Pty secured a loan over the assets of Whyalla Ports and its shares, including assets under lease with OneSteel. "NRW Holdings is deeply disappointed and worried that the proposed and unheard-of intervention by the South Australian Government will seriously undermine Golding’s security in Whyalla Ports," NRW Holdings stated in a press release. Golding Contractors is providing mining services to OneSteel Manufacturing and owes A$113.3 Million as per the mining service agreement. NRW Holdings announced that the company will make a provision in its upcoming results for the full year to cover any potential impairment.
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London metals fall on cautious over US-China truce
Prices for most base metals fell in London on Thursday, as the temporary truce between U.S. and China tariffs prompted caution. There were also concerns over a possible global recession that could affect metals demand. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell by 0.8% at 0416 GMT to $9,532 per metric ton. The Commerce Ministry said that China has halted non-tariff actions taken against 17 U.S. entities on its list of unreliable entities and 28 U.S. companies on its Export Control List. Both countries agreed to lower the tit for tat tariffs, and to implement a 90 day pause in action. Washington also said that it would reduce the "de minimis tariff" on low-value shipments coming from China to 30 percent. A trader stated that "the trade tariff conflict has moved in a positive way, easing concerns about a possible global recession." However, since trade negotiations can be complex and long, we cannot predict with certainty that things will get back to normal following the 90-day ceasefire. We could see a similar situation to April when increased trade tensions affected metals prices. Other London metals include aluminium, which fell by 0.3%, to $2.520 per ton. Zinc also declined, falling 0.3%, to $2.755, while lead dropped 0.6%, to $1.984, and nickel was down 0.6%, to $15,775. Tin was unchanged at $32,815. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw most metals rise on the back of a growth in demand indicators. China's total social finance, which is a key indicator for future industrial metals, rose 8.7% in April to a record high. This was due to increased government bond issuance. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract fell by 0.3%, to 78,230 Yuan ($10,851.76) a ton. The price of aluminium in the SHFE rose by 0.8%, to 20,315 Yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.6%, to 22,655 Yuan. Lead increased 0.4%, to 16,985 Yuan. Nickel was unchanged at 124450 yuan. Tin advanced by 0.2%, to 265,250 Yuan. $1 = 7.2145 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Janane Vekatraman).
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Union wins with two goals from Tai Baribo in the second half
Tai Baribo scored twice, including the winning goal in the sixth minute during second-half stoppage, as the Philadelphia Union defeated the Los Angeles Galaxy 3-2 on Wednesday, preventing them from winning any games this season. Nathan Harriel scored another goal for the Union (8-3-3, 26 points). The Union extended their unbeaten streak to six games in a row (3-0-3) over all competitions. Andrew Rick, the goaltender, did not have to make any saves. Mauricio Fagundez and Diego Cuevas each scored in the first half for the Galaxy (0-10-3; 3 points), which extended the longest streak of winless seasons to begin a season ever recorded by MLS. John McCarthy recorded six saves in the defending MLS Cup Champions' goal. Cuevas took the Galaxy to a rare win in the 31st minutes, scoring just inside the right goal post after Marco Reus carried the ball from midfield following a Union mistake. Los Angeles led for only the second time in this season, when it scored early against Orlando City. Los Angeles scored again six minutes later when Fagundez, who also received a feed by Reus, netted. The Galaxy's halftime advantage of 2-0 was quickly erased in the second period. Harriel's set play goal off a corner kicked brought the Union within 2-1 of the Galaxy three minutes after halftime. Philadelphia equalized two minutes later when Baribo scored a header after a centering ball from Danley Jean-Jacques. Baribo scored the game-winner on a header, after Galaxy failed to clear the ball from their own penalty zone. Baribo was assisted by Mikael Houre. Baribo now has 10 goals for the season, after entering the match tied with the league leader. Union had a resounding victory, dominating scoring opportunities, with 24 shots including nine in the goal. Galaxy's two goals were scored on just four shots. Los Angeles has conceded 31 goals, the most in MLS. Field Level Media
Farmers in Northern Mexico fight drought after water dispute with US
This cattle ranching community in northern Mexico has a lot of dead animals scattered around the town. The drought, which has been going on for years, is forcing local farmers to think about moving to another area to find water and land.
According to data from the government, more than 64% Mexico's land is suffering from some form of drought. The northern states, especially Chihuahua with its most severe levels of drought, are hardest hit.
Mexico and the U.S. have been in heated negotiations about Mexican delays in delivering water quantities laid out in 1944's treaty.
Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs and sanctions if Mexico did not increase its water deliveries, which U.S. officials claim have devastated Texan Farmers. Mexico's government claims that drought has affected its ability to comply.
Farmers in the Chihuahua town of Julimes are worried about their future.
"I don’t think we'll hold out for much longer," said Leopoldo Ochoa 62 as he rode his granddaughter behind his herd on horseback.
A lack of grass and water has forced farmers in northern Chihuahua to relocate their herds from the mountains where they usually graze. Ochoa is a resident of Valle de Zaragoza which depends on the La Boquilla Dam.
If there isn't any more water, then we will need to look for another ranch. Imagine leaving this ranch at 60 years old, where you have lived your entire life, said Manuel Araiza.
He added, "It's sad but the truth is that this will all come to an end."
While diplomats in Mexico negotiate water deliveries to the U.S.A., Chihuahua farmers consider their future.
Estreberto Monje, 57, said: "My children told me that this was no longer profitable. I should sell my animals." "The truth is that we've never experienced anything like this." (Reporting by Jose Luis Gonzalez, writing by Cassandra Garrison, editing by Sandra Maler)
(source: Reuters)