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Copper product manufacturers in Europe urge EU to restrict scrap exports
The copper industry in Europe has called for EU policymakers close loopholes that it believes are preventing the export of scrap metal, particularly to China. The European Commission, which is the EU executive body, has been urged to act by companies that use copper in the production of semi-finished goods such as tubes, wires, and rods. The paper stated: "We are deeply concerned about the supply of secondary raw materials to our industry, since we already face serious consequences related to a scrap material shortage in the EU." Secondary materials is the term used to describe recycled metal. The paper reported that copper scrap exports from EU reached a record level in 2023. 672,000 tons of scrap left the EU, and 45% went to China for its massive refinery sector. Companies such as Wieland in Germany, ElvalHalcor in Greece and La Farga in Spain have noted that EU's Critical Raw Materials Act seeks to meet domestic demand from at least 25 percent recycled material. The group demanded that the EU close a loophole it claimed existed in the EU's Waste Shipment Regulation, which it said allowed China to circumvent the law. The paper stated: "We appeal to European Commission to protect our mine urban which will generate more quantities available in the future for the European industry." (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Eric Onstad is the reporter)
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Even after Trump's deal, Ukraine still faces a long and uncertain road to mining boom
A small team of eco-consultants dropped sensors into the ground to measure the water level in the snow-covered fields of central Ukraine. This is where the largest lithium deposits in the country are found. The small Ukrainian mining company UkrLithiumMining that has the license contracted the environmental survey years before any mining operations on the undeveloped site. This shows how much more work needs to be done for a mineral deal between Ukraine, the United States and other countries before it generates any significant revenue. The President Donald Trump views the minerals deal, which he will clinch with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday in Washington, as America's means of recouping some of the money that it has given Ukraine in financial aid and weapons to fight Russia which invaded Ukraine three years ago. Denys Alyoshin, Chief Strategy Officer of UkrLithiumMining said that the Washington agreement was a positive step because it makes Ukraine more resilient to Russian aggression over the long term. He said that without some sort of Western security guarantee, developing the Polokhivske Lithium deposit would be difficult. The deposit, one of Europe's largest, is only 240 km from the Russian border. Alyoshin said, "Before war broke out I had many commercial negotiations with... investors interested in the project." "But once the war broke out, a rational CEO wouldn't go to a place where there was a war. They would go to Zimbabwe or Canada. There are many places where there isn't a war. The Trump administration, despite Zelenskiy's repeated requests, has not offered Kyiv any security guarantees. This has led to doubts about the commercial viability of developing rare mineral deposits, which are used in high-tech gadgets and batteries. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire this year, there is still the risk of war. The draft minerals agreement, which was reviewed by, included reassuring words but did not guarantee security. The focus was on creating a U.S. and Ukraine-managed "Reconstruction Investment Fund", to which Kyiv would contribute 50% of the future revenues from monetizing state-owned resources. The terms of the agreement are very broad, and more negotiations will be required to nail down the details. Four experts have told Alyoshin stated that even if peace is restored to Ukraine, UkrLithiumMining will need to raise $350 millions and conduct a feasibility report for at least 1.5 years before they can begin building a mine or enrichment plant. "It will mean that we can reach a steady stage production...it could be in 2029." The next U.S. Presidential elections will take place in 2028. Trump, who has championed minerals cooperation to secure peace, is constitutionally prohibited from running for another term. Seven mining executives and analysts said that Alyoshin’s timeline was optimistic. The typical exploration period is four years. A feasibility study will take an additional year to complete before construction can begin. The majority of the lithium deposits in Ukraine have been identified during the Soviet period and there hasn't been any exploration or updates for many years, according to Federico Gay. BMI is a specialist information provider in London for the supply chain for lithium-ion battery used in electric cars. He said that even if all the pieces fall into place, it will take at least eight years to develop the Polokhivske Deposit to the point where it produces usable lithium. Gay said that the deposit was deep and could require as much as $800 million to build the concentrator and mine. He added that an additional $1 billion would be required to produce the compounds for batteries. Alyoshin stated that his company planned to eventually produce 1.5 million tonnes per year of raw ore and then process it into 300,000 tons of petalite concentrat - a lithium-rich substance. Alyoshin said that with additional investment the lithium carbonate concentrate could be refined further to produce 22,000 tons of battery-grade Lithium Carbonate. It has not been previously reported the specifics of production and processing timetables planned at the Polokhivske Deposit. Classified Reserves The demand for these minerals is very high. Rare earths and lithium are both used to make electric vehicle batteries. Lithium can also be found in auto motors, wind turbines, and advanced military weapon systems. According to mining experts and analysts, it is a huge undertaking to convert Ukraine's lithium and rare earth reserves into mines that can be operated and processing facilities built. Ukraine doesn't produce rare earths, but according to the Institute of Geology of Ukraine, it has large deposits of these minerals including lanthanum. cerium, and neodymium. The detailed data on these reserves is classified. Investors might be wary if the U.S. receives mined minerals as a return for security assurances, protection against future Russian attacks, and aid. Mining companies would use royalty agreements to secure financing from investors. They receive a percentage of sales revenue once production starts. While Trump is in office, any deal he makes to gain access to Ukraine's vital minerals will not allow the United States to challenge China's huge advantage in these key minerals. Julian Kettle, Vice-Chair Metals and Mining of Wood Mackenzie, said that while it is a counter to China it still poses the issue of where and how the minerals will be processed. The country is a producer of titanium, and has large graphite and Lithium deposits. You can increase production in existing mines. "But when it comes to new frontier development, the time from discovery to delivery of materials could be up to ten years." China is the third largest lithium producer in the world, behind Australia and Chile. China is the top producer of rare-earth elements in the world, including neodymium, used to produce strong, lightweight, powerful permanent magnetic materials used in military equipment. The U.S. Geological Survey, a government agency does not disclose details about lithium production in the United States. The USGS estimated that 45,000 metric tonnes of rare earth oxides contained in mineral concentrates was produced last year, making the U.S. second largest concentrate producer behind China. The gap is huge. USGS reports that China mined 270,000 tons of rare earths last year, or 69% of global production. It has even more control over rare earth processing, a complex process that is highly polluting. Beijing produces 90% of all rare earth elements. NEGOTIATIONS TO BE CONTINUED Dominic Raab is the head of global affairs for Appian Capital Advisor, a firm that invests into mining companies. He said the deal between Ukraine and the U.S. was a step in the right direction in terms of helping to fund Ukraine's development. Raab said that there was still a lot of due diligence and negotiations to be conducted. He previously served as the former British deputy prime minister and secretary of state for foreign affairs. Raab stated that Appian is interested in investing in Ukraine’s mineral projects if there was more information about the geological potential of the country. According to BMI, Ukraine is home to significant amounts of rare earth elements and lithium, graphite titanium, graphite used in nuclear power generation, as well as uranium. "Ukraine's not been mapped for 30 years." Gracelin Baskaran is the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' critical minerals security program. She said, however, that the mining industry - which uses around one-fifth as much energy worldwide - requires a robust electrical infrastructure: "Ukraine was bombed out." The state of the infrastructure in Ukraine and the security risks are too high to consider it a serious competitor. (Reporting from Pratima Deai in London, and Olena Harma in Kyiv. Additional reporting by Thomas Peter at Kopanky, and Ernest Scheyder at Houston. Editing by Veronica Brown and Mike Collett White.
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Macron left Washington without much hope for U.S. tariffs
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged that he had left the country. Washington After talks with President Donald Trump this week, there is little hope that the European Union will avoid U.S. tariffs. Macron said that the Trump administration’s trade strategy, and in particular its understanding of value added taxes, was flawed. The U.S. President announced that his administration will announce a 25% duty on all imports of goods from China two days after Macron's meeting at the White House with Trump. European Union. Trump claimed that the bloc was created in order to "screw up" the United States. Macron, who was in Porto, Portugal at the time, told reporters that he had left with "very little hope". Macron said: "I believe there are misunderstandings and design problems with the commercial approach proposed this administration." The central argument is that they believe our consumption taxes, and in particular, the value-added tax, is a tariff. This is not true. Luis Montenegro, Portuguese Premier, spoke alongside Macron and reiterated his call to dialogue with Washington. He added: "Europe must respond in the same way to a rise in tariffs." Montenegro said that he regretted the fact that the United States and European Union will benefit more from trade tensions than other economies or blocs that are not subject to inflationary tariffs. The European Commission On Wednesday, the government announced that it would "react firmly and immediately" to unjustified obstacles to fair and free trade. Reporting by Makini Pineau and Elizabeth Pineau, editing by GV de Clercq and Richard Lough
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Trump's proposed auto-tariffs are hitting the demand for platinum group alloys
Analysts said that demand for industrial precious metals such as platinum and palladium would likely drop if President Donald Trump's tariffs on U.S. imports of autos dampens vehicle sales. Trump announced earlier this month that levies will be imposed on automobiles as early as April 2. Imports would be more expensive and exporters would see a decline in demand. It is expected that the ripple effect will spread to palladium, rhodium and platinum, collectively known as platinum group metals. These metals are used to make vehicle exhaust systems in gas, diesel, and hybrid vehicles. Zain Vawda is a market analyst for MarketPulse, by OANDA. He said that tariffs can fuel inflation, keep interest rates high, and slow economic growth. This could weaken the demand for palladium and platinum. Nearly 40% of global platinum demand is accounted for by the auto industry, and 80% of global palladium consumption. Vawda anticipates that global demand for platinum will decline by around 1%, or 102,000 ounces, this year. Palladium is expected to drop by 4%, or 364,000 ounces, if tariffs are placed on U.S. automobile imports. The U.S. automobile industry relies heavily on imported parts and vehicles, especially from Canada and Mexico. Barclays estimates that Mexico supplies up to 40% of parts used in U.S. cars, Canada more than 20%, and German auto giant Volkswagen manufactures about three quarters of its North American Fleet in Mexico. Wilma Swats, Director of PGM Research for Metals Focus, has said that PGM demand may drop by about 150,000 ounces if tariffs cause a drop in U.S. car sales of up to a million units, and if 90% is due to internal combustion engines and hybrids. David Whiston is Morningstar's equity strategist for U.S. automobiles. He said that American consumers might hesitate to purchase a vehicle with a higher tariff because they don't want the increased price. On February 19, the day after Trump's announcement of his auto tariff plans, spot platinum and palladium both fell by more than 2%. Since then, the prices have fallen by about 5% and 7 %, respectively.
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Andy Home: Critical minerals are at the forefront of world politics
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will meet today with the U.S. president Donald Trump to sign an important minerals deal to ensure continued U.S. support in the war against Russia. It started out as a rare-earths deal, but someone soon realized that Ukraine actually doesn't have much of these 17 esoteric elements. The draft text of the proposed Reconstruction Investment Fund simply refers to "deposits" of hydrocarbons, minerals, oil, and gas. Mortgages of Ukrainian security for its mineral wealth come with a long overdue payback. The clue lies in the word "deposits". Finding deposits of minerals is easy. Mining them is more challenging. Even more difficult is the processing of them. The deal shows that we are now in a new era of metal politics after a century-long era of oil politics. What lies beneath the surface? The U.S. Geological Survey is unaware that Ukraine is a major producer of rare earths. It also does not include it in its top 10 list or the largest reserve. Since the Soviet era, Ukraine's rare earth deposits have not been surveyed. We don't know even the size of the reserve or its composition, let alone if it is economically viable to extract. Ukraine has confirmed reserves of critical metals like titanium and lithium, but removing them from the ground will be a much bigger challenge. After three years of conflict, Ukraine has a shortage of both infrastructure and power. The question is not how to turn raw materials into metal. China is the dominant player in many mineral supply chains, not because of its large ore reserves, but because it has mastered a key part of the production process. The West is also struggling to catch up with China's technological know-how, as it restricts the export of crucial metal processing technologies. It will be some time before Ukraine is able to deliver on its end of the deal and monetise what's still underground. Metals Revolution The United States and Europe are desperate to secure their critical mineral supply chain because of China's dominance. It's the metallic revolution driving this hunger. In the 20th century, a landline phone only required a copper wire. Apple iPhones still contain copper, but they also need aluminium, cobalt and gold. They also require lithium, tin, titanium, tungsten, tin oxide, tungsten oxide, and a few rare earths. Consider what goes into an advanced piece of technology, such as a stealth fighter plane like the F-35. Metals are not just hard bits to shape, but they are being used in more complex combinations that are closer to inorganic chemical synthesis than traditional metalworking. The lithium-ion batteries are the poster child for modern metallurgy. They come in different chemistries, each using a slightly varying combination of metal inputs. The first commercial batteries appeared in 1991, but technology has evolved rapidly to become a key driver for the transition to electric cars. This is why the West races to develop its own supply chain of battery metals. While Trump may not be a fan of electric cars, he understands how vital metals are for the U.S. Military. In fact, Trump declared a national crisis in his first term for critical minerals. METALLIC POKER The geopolitical game table has adopted critical metals as a new bargaining chip. Trump is also targeting Greenland. Although it has reserves of rare earths and other minerals, the country lacks the infrastructure needed to extract them from the ground. Vladimir Putin is quick to jump into the metal poker game and points out that Russia has more rare earths in its reserves than Ukraine, should the United States be interested. He will even add two million tonnes of aluminum primary per year, as he has heard that the United States may be short if they impose tariffs on Canada's largest supplier. This raises the question as to whether Trump would be better off looking at his own country if he is really so keen to get rare earths and critical metals. Canada is home to many of these, has a mining-friendly jurisdiction and possesses extensive metals processing capability. Trump has thrown out "friend-shoring", a concept that was popularized by the previous administration. Maybe the list of people who are friends has changed. The deal to sell minerals with Ukraine will not be the last. Ukraine isn't the only country that wants to use metals as a currency. The Democratic Republic of Congo has tried and failed to defeat the M23 rebels, who have seized two of the largest cities in eastern Congo. In an interview with The New York Times Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the country, praised a deal similar to that struck in Ukraine, whereby the country would provide future supplies, notably cobalt, as a reward for Western aid. This is the age of metal diplomacy. There are a number of elements on the periodic table you may not have heard about, even though they're used every day. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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Dollar's strength has led to the worst gold week for three months.
Gold prices dropped on Friday, as the dollar held firm following U.S. inflation figures that were in line with expectations. This suggests the U.S. Federal Reserve could adopt a cautious approach to additional rate cuts. As of 9:05 am, spot gold dropped 1.1% to $2.845.53 per ounce. ET (1405 GMT). Bullion fell 3.1% in value for the week. This is its steepest weekly decline since November. U.S. Gold Futures was 1.3% lower at $2,857.40. Dollar-priced Gold became more expensive to overseas buyers due to the dollar index's weekly gain. Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) increased by 0.3% in January, after a 0.3% increase in December that was not revised. Jim Wyckoff is a Kitco Metals senior analyst. He said, "I don't think the PCE data will change the Fed's expectations." Wyckoff stated that the primary factor impacting gold and silver market is profit-taking during week-long liquidation as well as the strong U.S. Dollar index. On Friday, traders of futures contracts which settle at the Federal Reserve policy rate continued to bet that the U.S. Central Bank will cut short-term borrowing interest rates again in June. The appeal of non-yielding gold is diminished by higher interest rates. Gold, the safe haven, is expected to gain for a second month in a row, thanks to concerns about President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Trump announced on Thursday that his proposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian products will go into effect on March 4. An additional 10% duty will be applied to Chinese imports. Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $30.98, platinum fell 1.1% at $938.13, and palladium declined 1.1% at $909.54. All three metals are headed for monthly losses. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Acciona Energia reassures investors on U.S. exposure, asset sales
Acciona's top management stated on Friday that it expects to see little impact of President Donald Trump’s energy and trading policies. It also outlined plans for asset sales up to $4.68 billion. Acciona Energy, like other European green energy companies has faced investors' difficulties. Unease The U.S. Renewable Energy Market is changing dramatically under the Trump Administration. In a conference call with analysts on earnings for 2024, Chief Executive Rafael Mateo said that "our exposure to the U.S. Energy Policy Volatility is very limited." Acciona had already acquired the necessary equipment in advance and secured tax incentives, he said at a later press conference. He said that the U.S. represents around 20% of its business. In the next two years, the company's main projects will be the construction of two large battery storage plants. The company has not announced any offshore wind energy projects, a source of energy that U.S. president Donald Trump has made public. Critique Mateo stated that "we believe the U.S. will remain one of our main destinations for renewable energy investments in the world." Acciona Energia is controlled by the Spanish group Acciona S.A. and is looking to sell some solar assets located in the U.S., as part of a broader strategy to use disposals for a bolstering its balance sheet, and to fund new investments. Jose Entrecanales, Chief Financial Officer and Sustainability Officer, said that the company is also looking at selling assets in Spain and Mexico, as well as Peru, Chile, and Costa Rica. He said, "We will only transact on the pipeline that is most suitable for us. We'll select those transactions that are best suited." This year, the company aims to sell assets worth up to 1.7bn euros.
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Italy's Government adopts a plan to return to nuclear energy
The Italian government adopted a new law on Friday that will allow the return of nuclear energy, almost 40 years after its ban by referendum. Prime Minister Giorgia Mello described it as a move towards energy security and independence. The law, approved by the parliament, gives the mandate to the government to issue detailed transition decrees. Last month, Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin stated that he expects the process to be complete by end-2027. Meloni, in a video after a cabinet session, said that the government had approved "another important measure" to guarantee clean, safe and low-cost energy, which can ensure energy security as well as strategic independence. Italy's aim is to decarbonise and produce nuclear energy using advanced modular reactors. The government claims that technological and safety advances have rendered the 1987 nuclear power ban obsolete. The report estimates that it could save 17 billion euro ($17.69billion) by 2050 on the costs of decarbonising an economy if nuclear energy made up at least 11 percent of the energy mix. According to the national energy and climate plans, this portion could reach 22%. According to an energy ministry presentation on Friday, the law will specify how the new modules should be operated and commission research into the technologies required. The law would also allow for the decommissioning of old nuclear power plants in Italy, and the establishment of an independent authority that will supervise this sector. Italy has retained its expertise in the nuclear industry. Enel, a state-controlled utility in Spain, operates nuclear power plants. Energy major Eni has invested in a project in the United States to develop a nuclear reactor. Pichetto Fratin stated last year that Italy is in talks with a number of companies, including the U.S. Energy Group Westinghouse as well as France's EDF. These companies are potential partners in a state-backed firm that will build advanced reactors in Italy. The Italian newspapers Il Sole 24 Ore and Corriere della Sera reported earlier this month that the state-backed firm, which would include Enel Ansaldo, and Leonardo, and study options for small nuclear reactors was nearing formation.
In October-December, India's economy grew at 6.2%.
Data released on Friday revealed that India's economy expanded by 6.2% between October and December, slightly below expectations, but faster than the previous quarter due to increased consumer and government spending.
The increase in gross domestic products was lower than both the 6.8% estimate by the central bank and the 6.3% projected by the analysts. The fifth-largest economy in the world grew by 5.6% during the last quarter.
Comments
GAURA SEN GUPTA INDIA ECONOMIST IDFC FIRST BANK MUMBAI
The Q3 GDP is "marginally higher than our expectations". The growth momentum is a result of a slight improvement in profit growth for listed companies and a moderated input cost.
The agriculture sector also saw a significant increase in growth, largely due to a robust Kharif crop production. On the demand side, growth in private consumption has picked up, reflecting a revival of rural demand.
After incorporating Q3 GDP for FY25, we still expect FY25 to have a full-year growth rate of 6.2%-6.3%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue to cut rates in a small-scale cycle, with a further 25bps to $50bps cut by 2025. The pressure of depreciation on the INR (rupee), will keep rate-cut cycles short, in our opinion.
HARRY CHAMBERS, ASSISTANT ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON
The economy, as a whole, is still relatively soft compared to recent Indian standards. The RBI's shift from controlling inflation to supporting economic growth should help to boost the economy.
The central bank's further loosening of monetary policy, which we expect will increase household consumption and investments, is expected to boost both this week.
MADHAVI ARORA - CHIEF ECONOMIST EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL MUMBAI
The GDP forecasting exercise has become extremely dynamic due to massive upward revisions of past quarters and years. The implied 4QFY25 estimate is 7.7% based on the NSO's current quarterly estimates for FY25TD. This is a big number given the macrodynamics of the time.
JAHNAVI PRIBHAKAR, ECONOMIST BANK OF BARODA MUMBAI
The GVA (gross added value) growth in Q3 was in line with expectations, and the GDP growth surprised positively."
A strong 6,5% growth for the FY25 is much higher than RBI's estimation. This is a positive.
The fourth quarter is likely to see a further recovery, backed by the consumption cycle and a rebound in the investment cycle. The growth outlook is also boosted by the expectation of rate cuts.
UPASNA BHARDWAJ CHIEF ECONOMIST KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK MUMBAI
The FY25 GDP figures have been resilient despite the sharp revisions upwards of the two previous years. This is largely because the revisions upwards in the second quarter.
We expect the FY25 GDP to be lower by 20-30 basis points than the estimate of the Central Statistics Office.
We expect a growth rate of 6.4% in FY26, but the outlook is still heavily clouded by downside risks due to global trade uncertainty.
RADHIKA RAO SENIOR ECONOMIST DBS BANK SINGAPORE
The GDP numbers came in close to expectations. The data showed a turn-around, with better demand owing to rural FMCG sales, and the festive season, while urban demand stagnated due to modest wage increases.
Policymakers can maintain a dovish stance, as the trend growth rate for FY25 is likely to slow down to 6% this year, from the revised 9% pace of FY24. Food disinflation has also set in, and successive macroprudential measures have been taken to ease restrictions.
"We anticipate a rate reduction in April with a shift to an accommodative stance."
SAKSHI GUPTA - PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST HDFC BANK GURUGRAM
The GDP growth in Q3 indicates that "the cycle bottom is likely behind us, as growth showed signs improvement" in the quarter. The improvement in agricultural performance and manufacturing was a major contributor.
Demand-side growth was close to 7% primarily due to the recovery of rural demand, but investment growth remained soft.
We expect growth of 6.6% in FY26, compared with 6.5% in FY25. This growth figure is a relief to the central bank. However, due to global headwinds we expect another rate reduction in April 2025.
DEVENDRA KUMARPANT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INDIA RATINGS, AND RESEARCH GURUGRAM
The ability to achieve 6.5% growth by FY25 will depend on the growth of each component, especially in consumption expenditures and investments.
KUNAL KUNDU, INDIA ECONOMIST, SOCIETE GENERALE, BENGALURU
The 4Q24 GDP figures are difficult to analyze objectively because of the major upward revisions of previous-year data.
Despite the changes, the consensus estimate for the Q4 real GDP growth was 6.2% based on unrevised statistics. Interesting, the major revisions to consumption data suggest that "the existing widespread narrative of weak domestic demand (including ours), based on non-revised GDP and multiple high frequency statistics was not entirely accurate".
Even the RBI and the most recent economic survey got it wrong about the domestic demand story. "Based on the latest data, we will continue to maintain our current growth forecast for the FY25, which is 6.3%, slower than official second-advance estimate expectations of 6.5%." (Reporting by Swati Bhat and Siddhi Nayak in Mumbai, Manvi Pant, Kashish Tandon, Hritam Mukherjee, Yagnoseni Das, Anuran Sadhu in Bengaluru, compiled by Indranil Sarkar; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
(source: Reuters)