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United States forecaster sees 57% possibility of La Nina establishing in October-December

There is a 57% opportunity of La Niña emerging from now to December, and it is anticipated to persist through January to March 2025, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

WHY IT is essential

La Niña, a climatic phenomenon defined by cooler-than-average ocean temperature levels in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and dry spells impacting worldwide farming, and higher Caribbean cyclone activity.

Hurricane Milton last month caused an estimated $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in damage to Florida's crops and agricultural infrastructure, according to an initial assessment released by the state's Department of Farming and Customer Solutions last month.

Both Hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to have triggered billions of dollars in damage in Florida.

CONTEXT

La Niña normally brings less rain and worsening dry spell conditions, which likewise has the potential to affect farming worldwide.

The cycle in between El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase usually lasts 2 to seven years.

Previously today, Japan's weather condition bureau said there appeared to be indications of La Nina phenomena establishing as winter techniques, but there is a 60% opportunity weather would go back to regular.

KEY PRICES ESTIMATE

This La Nina might affect crops in a negative method, impacting food security in a few of the poorer countries worldwide, such as Somalia, Ethiopia and the Sudan, AccuWeather's senior product forecaster, Dale Mohler, stated.

However, given that this La Nina has actually been sluggish in beginning and is expected to be weak and must decrease by late February or March, its influence on crops might be less than what you would usually see during a La Nina, Mohler added.

(source: Reuters)