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Gold falls as the dollar strengthens on Fed rate caution
Gold prices fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened on the uncertainty about further Federal Reserve rate reductions, but the bullion is still on track for its third consecutive month gain. As of 0700 GMT, spot gold was down 0.3%, at $4,011.60 an ounce. Bullion is up 4% this month. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.1%, to $4.021.20 an ounce. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance this week did not do gold any favors. The prospect of a December rate cut is now much less certain than previously believed, which has helped boost the dollar and made things more difficult for gold in terms of yield. Dollar index nears its highest level for three months against rival currencies, making gold more expensive to other currency holders. The Fed cut rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points, for the second consecutive time in this year. This brings the overnight benchmark rate down to a range of 3.75% - 4.00%. After Jerome Powell’s comments, traders reduced their bets on another rate reduction at the next policy meeting scheduled for December. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets now price in a probability of 74.8% for a 25-bp reduction compared with 91.1% a week earlier. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Thursday that he has agreed to reduce tariffs against China in exchange for Beijing crackingdown on illicit fentanyl, resumed U.S. soya bean purchases, and kept rare earths exports flowing. Gold was discounted in India this week for the first seven-week period, and a drop in prices boosted activity in other Asian hubs. Silver spot was up 0.4% to $49.1, platinum 0.6% to 1,621.60, and palladium 1.2% to $1462.43. (Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Mrigank Dhaniwala, Harikrishnan nair)
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Swiss National Bank profits shine with gold price surge
The Swiss National Bank announced a profit of 27,93 billion Swiss Francs ($35.22billion) for the third quarter, the central bank reported on Friday. This was boosted by the rising value of the gold reserves. Between June and September the central bank reported a gain in gold valuation of 14.33 billion Swiss francs, compared to the gain of 4.41 billion francs last year. According to UBS calculations, the SNB's average quarterly profit from gold over the past 10 years was less than two billion francs. GOLD GAINS FROM SAFEHAVEN DEMAND Gold prices have increased by 53% in the past year, as investors sought to hedge against political and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold has become more appealing due to the weakening of the U.S. Dollar. Rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve also reduced the yield on other assets that are less risky, such as U.S. Treasuries. The SNB reported that it had also made a profit of 13,63 billion francs during the third quarter from the foreign currency positions it held, as well as the bonds and shares it purchased with the foreign currencies it bought. The central bank increased its profit for the third quarter to 27,93 billion francs from 5,67 million francs a year ago. Florian Germanier, economist at UBS, said: "It is very unusual that the SNB makes so much profit on gold but it reflects the huge price increases gold has seen this year." The profit is simply a side effect from holding an asset that is considered to be the ultimate safe-haven, and which the SNB must hold in order to diversify their holdings and carry out monetary policies.
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China's steel production will fall below 1 billion tonnes in 2025, but the industry imbalance persists
China's steel production will drop below 1 billion tons by 2025. This is on track to meet government pledges to reduce production. However, a mismatch between supply and demand still exists. The world's biggest producer of crude steel has seen its output fall since 2020. However, it was still over 1 billion tons by 2024. Beijing promised in March that it would continue to cut steel production this year, to restructure a sector plagued by excessive capacity. A prolonged downturn on the steel-intensive real estate market has led to a shortage of steel. The steel consumption in 2025 fell by 5.7%, while the crude steel production declined by 2.9%. At a briefing for reporters, Jiang Wei (Vice Chairman of China Iron and Steel Association) said that consumption this year will fall by a fifth consecutive year. China's steel sector will have its best year since the 2022, with many listed companies reporting significant increases in their third-quarter net profits. Steel prices have been halted by a surge in exports, which has partially offset a faltering domestic demand. However, the influx of cheap Chinese steel threatens to trigger broader protectionist reactions worldwide. Steel billet, or lower-value blocks of semi-finished steel, has been exported three times more than in the same period of 2024. This trend, the steel association warned earlier this year, could deter the industry from upgrading and is already increasing the price of steelmaking materials, especially iron ore. Beijing has committed to carbon neutrality in 2060. To achieve this target, the steel industry will need to invest approximately 20 trillion yuan. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Kate Mayberry and Amy Lv)
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Adani Power is the lowest bidder in India's Assam State for a 3.2 GW coal auction
Adani Power, an Indian company, has been selected as the lowest-bidder in a tender for the supply of coal power to the northeastern Assam state. The announcement was made during the post-earnings conference call. Adani Power said that the bid had been approved by the state's electricity commission and it expects to receive formal notification of the award soon. The tender is a part of an overall pipeline of more than 22 GW in thermal power bids from states such as Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh Gujarat and West Bengal. They are seeking to secure long-term capacity due to rising demand and intermittent renewable production. Adani Power announced in August that it would invest $5 billion into two coal-powered power plants. The company plans to increase capacity from 18 GW to 42 GW by 2032. 8.5 GW of that is already locked in under long-term contracts. Adani Power has said that it will invest approximately 2 trillion rupees over a long period of time in the expansion plan, with the 12 GW expected to be commissioned before the fiscal year 2030. A company executive revealed that the power firm had pre-ordered the boilers, generators, and turbines needed for the expansion. Deliveries will be staggered over the next 38 to 75 months. Separately Adani Power reported that its power dues to Bangladesh had narrowed down to 15 days' supply. This compares to $900 million last May and almost $2 billion at the beginning of this year. Sethuraman N.R., Sonia Cheema (Reporting)
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Japan's Kansai Electric shares rise 5% after forecasting higher profit, dividend
Kansai electric power Co shares rose 5% on Friday in Tokyo, outperforming other markets, after the company's largest nuclear power utility raised its profit forecasts and promised generous returns to shareholders. Kansai, in which U.S. activist investor Elliott became a large minority shareholder last month, lifted its annual profit forecast by 22% to 360 billion yen ($2.4 billion) on Thursday, on higher electricity demand and stronger-than-expected earnings at its fuel trading unit. It also raised its full-year forecast dividend to 75 yen from 60 yen, and promised that the payout ratio would be 25-35% starting in the next fiscal. Kansai shares rose 5.2% to 0512 GMT. This was higher than the Nikkei Index, which had risen 1.9%. Elliott announced its ownership of the stock on September 10. The share price has increased by around 7%. Elliott has been a shareholder in Tokyo Gas since November 19, last year. Shares are 42% higher today. Elliott wants both companies to maximize shareholder value through the sale of non-core assets. This includes their massive real estate portfolios. Sources familiar with the situation said that Elliott had earlier asked Kansai for a 100-yen dividend increase. Tokyo Gas has raised its full-year profit estimate to 194 billion Japanese yen from 131 billion, due to the fact that it expects to earn 30.7 billion yen from property sales. Kansai sees real estate as an essential business that it wants to expand, according to a Kansai executive.
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Japan's Seven & i is looking for M&A and partnership deals to fuel growth
Yoshimichi M. Maruyama, chief financial officer of Japan's Seven & i, said that the company is working on a number of initiatives including potential M&A and partnership deals aimed at achieving substantial growth. 7-Eleven, the Japanese retailer that owns convenience stores in Japan, wants to show investors how it can grow after Canada's Couche-Tard pulled out of a $46 billion bid offer last July. Seven & i said that it would pursue a listing for its North American convenience-store subsidiary in the second half 2026 and buy back shares worth about 2 trillion yen (13 billion dollars) through fiscal year 2020. Maruyama told investors at a recent investor briefing that "we are not planning to sell a large number of shares". He said that the company would still buy back shares even if there was no offering. Seven & i shares have fallen by about a fifth in the last year. TAG EUROPEAN EXPANSION The retailer said that it also aims to make Europe a "fourth main pillar of growth", alongside Japan, North America, and Asia-Pacific. Currently, it has 365 shops in Scandinavia. Ken Wakabayashi is the CEO of 7-Eleven International. He said that Europe, outside Scandinavia, was a blank space for 7-Eleven. The retailer also plans to enter markets with high growth potential in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
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Morning Bid Europe- No tricks, but some treats for the markets
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors are unsure about the direction of global monetary policy in the near future, but a trade truce reached between the top two economies in the world has calmed nerves. Meanwhile, a mixed bag mega-cap earnings have kept the market in check. As the week began, there were signs that tensions between China and the U.S. had cooled. The Federal Reserve also delivered an expected rate reduction, but Chairman Jerome Powell warned that this could be the last cut in 2025. This helped to firm up the dollar. It is currently on track for a gain of nearly 2% for the month. The yen was hovering at its lowest level since Feburary, just below 154 dollars, which prompted some verbal scolding from Tokyo officials. As expected, the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged on Thursday. However, markets interpreted Governor Kazuo ueda's comments as dovish despite his hints that an interest rate increase is still on the table. The Nikkei has benefited from the fall in the yen. It is down almost 4% for October. This was a huge boost to the Nikkei. It has surpassed another record and is now on track for a 16% gain for the month. That would be its best monthly performance since Jan 1994. The "Takaichi" trade in all its glory. The South Korean stock market, Kospi, has been the best performing in the world so far this year. It is expected to rise 20% in October. This will be the largest increase since January 2001. Artificial intelligence has been the focus of much excitement in the stock markets this year. Investors are still trying to get a better picture of the earnings season, which has so far been a mixed one. Amazon shares surged after cloud revenue rose to its highest level in almost three years. This lifted Nasdaq Futures and set up a successful Halloween for tech stocks. As businesses continue to invest in AI software, the online retailer has benefited. Apple is also expected to boost the market after it announced that its holiday quarter forecasts exceeded Wall Street's expectations. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Economic events: October inflation figures for the eurozone and France, September retail sales in Germany
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Gold falls as Fed rate caution increases dollar, but is set to rise for 3rd month.
Gold prices fell Friday as the dollar strengthened on fears of further Federal Reserve rate reductions, but bullion is still on course for its third consecutive monthly gain. As of 0459 GMT, spot gold was down 0.4%, at $4,005.54 an ounce. Bullion is up 3.9% this month. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery remained at $4,018.10 an ounce. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance this week did not do gold any favors. The prospect of a December rate cut is now much less certain than previously believed, which has helped boost the dollar and made things more difficult for gold in terms of yield. Dollar index nears its highest level for three months, making gold more expensive to other currency holders. The U.S. Central Bank cut interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, for the second consecutive time in this year. This brings the benchmark overnight rate down to a range of target of 3.75%-4.00%. After comments from Chairman Powell, traders have reduced their bets on the Fed cutting rates at its next policy gathering in December. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a probability of 74.8% for a 25 basis-point reduction from the Fed by December compared to a chance of 91.1% a week earlier. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to reduce tariffs against China in exchange for Beijing crackingdown on illicit fentanyl trafficking. He also stated that the U.S. would resume its soybean purchases as well as continue exports of rare earths. Gold was discounted in India this week for the first seven-week period, and a drop in prices boosted activity in other Asian hubs. Silver spot was unchanged at $48.89 an ounce. Platinum was stable at $1,610.75, and palladium rose 1.5% to $1466.42. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Mrigank dhaniwala in Bengaluru)
How Trump's second administration impacts business: Musk, tariffs and more
Donald Trump's return to the White Home after winning the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election may improve American company. Much depends on whom he appoints as deputies and cabinet members, consisting of the function of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and what tariffs he enacts. Following are some significant issues and sectors to see:
WHAT FUNCTION WILL ELON MUSK PLAY? After some nudging from the world's wealthiest person, Trump has stated he would tap Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead a new government performance commission. Musk has stated at least $2 trillion might be cut from the $6.75 trillion federal budget plan. How that works might be an essential to the next Trump administration.
Does effectiveness mean fewer guidelines and regulators? Musk has been a singing critic, for example, of federal review of his SpaceX rocket organization. That might suggest less oversight of self-driving automobiles (a Tesla service) or rocket launches and much more. The two males are not totally in sync: Trump has stated he won't. let California require all lorries in the state go electrical in. a years, however Musk runs the world's most important EV business. A. increasing tide raises all boats. So to the level that Elon is able. to hinder the vilification of EVs by a potential Trump. administration, all the much better, stated James Chen, previous head of. policy for Rivian and Tesla. How Musk would address conflicts of. interest in between his interests in cars, area, health,. building and artificial intelligence is not clear. Trump has vowed to be a crypto president, a strategy that may. begin with replacing market challenger Gary Gensler, the. Securities and Exchange Commission chair who has actually sued the majority of. the industry-- consisting of Coinbase, Binance and Kraken. Gensler's replacement is anticipated to review - and potentially. destroy - accounting assistance and produce industry exemptions. from SEC guidelines. Musk, too is a crypto advocate, as is Silicon. Valley Trump fan Marc Andreessen and inbound Vice. President J.D. Vance.
Musk is also a huge advocate of carbon-free energy, with. Tesla being a significant provider of solar systems and batteries. Trump has actually promised to eliminate the overseas wind industry and. rescind all unspent funds under the Inflation Decrease Act--. Biden's signature environment law. However Trump faces dissent in his. ranks: Republican legislators, oil companies and others see. massive red state gains from the law. Musk has played into that,. building his 2nd U.S. electric vehicle factory in Texas, for. instance.
TARIFFS. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and 60% on. Chinese-made items, which if enacted would impact the entire. economy by pressing customer costs higher. The Tax Structure, a. non-partisan think tank, computed Trump tariffs would hike. taxes by $524 billion every year, shrink GDP by at least 0.8%, and. cut employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent tasks potentially. affecting retail workers, the biggest economic sector employer. He likewise recommended he might enforce a 25% tariff on all imports. from Mexico.
Trump's tariff propositions might reduce American customers'. spending power in between $46 billion and $78 billion each year,. according to a National Retail Federation study.
Clothing, toys, furniture, home devices and footwear. would be the most afflicted classifications, the study said. Merchants. would move operations outside of China to countries consisting of. Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam. Big-box shops like Walmart and. Target would deal with higher supply chain costs, while grocery stores. like Kroger, Albertsons, and Publix, which minimally source from. China, might benefit. Delivering and transport specialists say. sweeping tariffs could at first strengthen their organization before. depressing trade. Tariffs tower above tech too. In recent weeks, Trump has likewise. heavily criticized the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act that has. looked for to partly subsidize companies constructing factories in. the United States. Instead, he stated the nation needs to impose. tariffs on chips coming into the country, especially from. Taiwan's TSMC.
Tariffs also would greatly raise expenses for the renewable. energy industries in the U.S., which rely heavily on Chinese. parts. Trump actions without Congressional support could. consist of import tariffs of 10-20% (ex China), 60% -200% on Chinese. imports which could affect the expense of eco-friendly projects,. especially solar and storage projects, according to an. October research note from Bernstein.
And then there is the concern of China's retaliation. It is. the world's most significant soy importer and pork consumer, but it has. diversified its food supply base since Trump's tariffs in his. initially administration. Moreover, China stopped working to totally comply. with an arrangement to purchase more U.S. farming products that it. signed with Trump in January 2020. Trump has vowed in his 2nd. term to impose 60% tasks on imports from China, raising. concerns that Beijing will strike back by minimizing imports of U.S. farm products.
OIL: DRILL BABY DRILL - BUT NOT IRAN. The United States is currently the world's greatest oil and gas. manufacturer, but Trump wishes to clear away remaining barriers. He'll lift a freeze on brand-new melted gas export allows,. expand federal drilling auctions, speed up new pipeline. permitting and attempt to reverse or compromise regulations focused on. cutting power plant and auto emissions. Trump's assistance for the. oil and gas market could likewise lead him to temper his. opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, considering that oil companies. are getting some funding from it for carbon-free undertakings. like carbon capture and sequestration.
The big oil policy wildcard is how Trump will treat rival. exporters, consisting of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is. likely that Trump would ease sanctions on Russian energy, however. leave in place those on Iran, stated Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at. the University of Houston. Jesse Jones, an expert with. speaking with company Energy Aspects, anticipates much more. We believe. that the impact of a Trump administration returning to a maximum. pressure project on Iran might lead to a million barrel each day. decline in Iranian unrefined exports, he stated.
LABOR UNIONS. Organized labor made excellent strides under President Joe Biden,. who signed up with a picket line with U.S. auto employees. The UAW wants. to expand and in future strikes the federal government might be. asked to intervene in a manner that damages employee bargaining. power, something Democrats have up until now decreased to do.
Republicans have normally been hostile to unions, however. Trump has actually played a various game, reaching out to blue-collar. workers. Strong assistance among lots of union employees may push. Trump to secure those citizens, stated Anthony Miyazaki, a. marketing professor at Florida International University. Still,. his record of selecting leaders to the National Labor Relations. Board led to a roll back of workers' rights to form unions. If this cycle repeats, it might potentially reverse the gains. unions have actually made because the pandemic, consisting of effective. arranging efforts at Starbucks and Amazon and other fledgling. motions at Apple, REI and Trader Joe's.
OTHER TOPICS INCLUDE:
FINANCE. Within banking, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of. America and other loan providers will likely enjoy a reprieve. from stiff capital walkings, M&A hoop-jumping, and Biden's junk. charges crackdown. Trump is anticipated to quickly install. industry-friendly Republicans at the financial regulators. However. those gains may be offset if Trump follows through on tax and. trade policies that will expand the deficit and fuel inflation,. in turn increasing financing rates. That might press existing loans. into the red, say analysts.
ANTITRUST AND TECH. Trump might stroll back the Department of Justice's bid to separate. Alphabet's Google and choose settling with business over. competitors concerns in mergers, instead of new trials, lawyers. said. The country's tough, leading merger police officer, Federal Trade. Commission Chair Lina Khan, is likely headed for the. door. More broadly, Trump's backers in Silicon Valley, including. financiers Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen and Tesla chief Elon. Musk, desire less regulation of new innovation, from synthetic. intelligence to rockets. They have a champ in previous endeavor. capitalist Vance.
MEDIA: VIEW WHAT YOU STATE. Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos decided days before the vote. that the paper would not back anyone for president,. describing it as a principled relocate to gain back reliability. Numerous countless subscribers left, lots of saying it was. political cowardice. USA Today and the LA Times also declined to. back a candidate. The message is quite clear today,. stated previous FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler. That is yielding to the. autocrat beforehand before you're asked to, stated New york city. University School of Specialist Research studies accessory partner. teacher Helio Fred Garcia, an author of 2 books about Trump.
During the project, Trump called on the Federal. Communications Commission to strip ABC and CBS of their. broadcast licenses. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel has actually denounced. Trump's calls to withdraw licenses for broadcast stations, citing. complimentary speech protections. However the independence of the FCC could. be at danger if Trump follows through on a project promise to. bring regulatory agencies, such as the FCC, under presidential. authority, Wheeler said. The president also could invoke his. emergency situation powers under the Communications Act to exert control. over broadcasters, pointing out national security concerns.
However, a brand-new Trump presidency will likely provide cable. news networks like CNN, Fox News and MSNBC and news outlets. consisting of the New york city Times and Washington Post the same big. shock to audiences and audience that his very first term produced.
PHARMACEUTICALS. Trump just recently said he would let previous presidential prospect. and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. go wild on. vaccine and healthcare policy. Kennedy has stated that Trump. guaranteed him manage over the FDA, CDC, HHS, and the USDA. Those. tasks might possibly offer him manage over what vaccines are. authorized and whether Americans are suggested to receive them. Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick has said Kennedy is not. going to be put in charge of the Department of Health and Human. Providers, but suggested he might advise on vaccines.
Jeremy Levin, CEO of biotech company Ovid Therapeutics. and previous chairman of biotech lobby group BIO, stated he. would be alarmed if Kennedy was provided oversight over vaccines,. and that other executives had likewise revealed issue. Vaccine. denialism, which is a central plank of RFK's, is possibly as. harmful as anything you can imagine, he said, adding that. President Trump's previous consultations for the COVID vaccine. effort and the FDA suggest to him that more moderate positions. will triumph. Some executives also were worried that Kennedy's. impact might damage the U.S.'s credibility and ability to review. new drugs.
(source: Reuters)