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The Pakistan Finance Minister sees a staff agreement on the $1.2 billion IMF payment this week
The Pakistani finance minister announced that the country is set to sign an agreement on the review of its loan program with the International Monetary Fund in the coming week. This will pave the path for a further $1.24 billion payment from the lender. The IMF delegation left Pakistan last weekend without signing the so-called staff-level agreement for the second review of its $7 billion Extended Fund Facility and first one for the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility, which was agreed upon in 2024 as a way to stabilize the economy following a severe financial crises. Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview conducted on the sidelines the IMF World Bank Annual Meeting that the mission had been on the ground for two weeks. We had a very constructive discussion with them about the quantitative benchmarks and the structural benchmarks. And we have also been having follow-up conversations. We hope to complete the SLA this week. The IMF's lending programme requires that countries undergo regular reviews. Once approved by the Fund executive board, the next tranche will be paid. The IMF program agreed in September 2024 helped stabilize Pakistan's then cash-strapped $370 billion economy, which was engulfed by an economic crisis. Inflation had reached record highs and the currency was rapidly depreciating. Aurangzeb predicted that the government would issue a green Panda Bond - the first bond denominated by Chinese yuan in Pakistan - before the end of the year and return to the international markets with a bond sales of at least one billion dollars next year, although details had yet to be determined. He said: "We're keeping all our options open, whether it is dollar, euro, Sukuk or Islam Sukuk." After disappointing results in last year's fiscal year, the privatisation drive - part of the long-delayed sales of state assets as part of an economic reform agenda and fiscal stabilisation - was expected gain momentum this year. He said, "This is a very important part of our economic road map." Pakistan has also made progress in the sale of Pakistan International Airlines, a national airline and three power distribution companies. Aurangzeb stated that he was "quite hopeful" about the prospects of qualified bidders to bid for PIA, citing lucrative routes into Europe and Britain, which "made it a very good proposition for investors." This would be the first major privatization for about 20 years. The government's previous attempt to privatize the country last year failed after only one lowball bid was received. However, five business groups have expressed interest in the deal, including Airblue and Lucky Cement as well as investment firm Arif Habib, and military-backed Fauji Fertilizer. The final bids will be announced later this year. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton: Karin Strohecker)
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Titan Mining will produce graphite at its New York facility
Titan Mining announced on Tuesday that it would begin producing graphite at its Empire State Mines, located in New York. This comes just days after China increased export restrictions on rare earth minerals. The Canadian miner is targeting ramp-up to a 40,000-tonne-per-year commercial graphite facility, which the company said would be capable of supplying about half of current U.S. natural graphite demand. Titan CEO Rita Adiani said, "China's move to restrict graphite exports highlights the importance of having an adequate supply of natural graphite at home." China had already tightened its controls on rare earth exports. But last week, it added five more elements to the list, making the total of 12 elements that are restricted. It also restricted the export of dozens pieces of equipment and materials used to mine and refine the rare earths - processes that it leads the world in. In March, U.S. president Donald Trump invoked his emergency powers in order to increase domestic production of critical mineral such as cobalt and lithium. Titan says the new facility will produce high-purity natural flake graphite derived from its Kilbourne deposit. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, Katha Kalia from Bengaluru)
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Polish defense industry could help JSW coal miner, says PM Tusk
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on Tuesday that Poland's defence sector may play a part in restructuring the state-controlled coal firm JSW, which is struggling. Tusk stated that his government will soon present a new plan for JSW. The European Union’s largest coking coal producer, used in the production of steel, is preparing a restructuring plan which may include wage cuts. This will help to deal with rising energy prices, falling coal costs and low-cost imports of steel. Tusk said at a press briefing that "we will do everything we can to transform JSW, and save this company or at least an important part of it." "This plan includes co-financing of voluntary redundancies." Poland has invested heavily in its military and defence industry since the Russian invasion of Ukraine's neighbour in February 2022. Tusk stated that JSW could benefit from these efforts, as the region of south-western Silesia is traditionally dominated by mining, steelmaking, and heavy machinery production. He said: "I don't rule out the possibility that the Polish Armaments Group, the Polish Defence Industry, will be able, in this case, to play a role, even in the case JSW, if only in part, in its activities." (Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Pawel Florkiewicz and Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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Eversource charges record $75 Million Charge for Offshore Wind Sale Settlement
Eversource Energy, a utility firm, said Tuesday that it expects to incur a charge of $75 million after tax or 20 cents per common share in the third quarter as a result of an increased liability for two wind projects sold by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). Eversource sold to GIP its South Fork and Revolution Wind project stakes in 2024. The proceeds were $745 million (down from $1.12 Billion) due to lower capital expenditure and the delayed commercial operation of Revolution Wind. The company said it had increased its payments to GIP, by approximately $285 million. This was due to revised estimates of construction costs, including higher insurance costs, tariff impacts and turbine vessel damages, as well as costs related to a temporary work stop order issued by Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The company said that it also expects to offset some of the impact by an estimated $210 millions federal tax benefit related to tax losses on offshore wind investments. The company said that it will also be reducing its forecast for the full year adjusted profit to $4.72 to $4.80 per shares from an earlier forecast of $4.67 - $4.82. (Reporting from Tanay Dhumal, Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore.)
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Madagascar's President dissolves National Assembly amid escalating crises
Andry Rajoelina, Madagascar's president, announced on Tuesday that he had disbanded the lower house. This accelerated a standoff between youth-led demonstrators and the military which forced him to leave the island. According to a decree posted on Facebook by the presidency, the 51-year old Rajoelina consulted the leaders of both the National Assembly as well as the Senate's upper house. However, the legality was not clear. Rajoelina, in a defiant speech delivered from an unnamed location Monday evening, refused to step aside despite the protests of Gen Z demanding his resignation as well as widespread defections within the army. Rajoelina claimed that he was forced to leave the country because of threats against his life. A foreign diplomat, an opposition official and a military source all confirmed that he fled the country Sunday on a French military aircraft. In a separate posting on X Rajoelina stated that the decision to dissolve Madagascar's national assembly was "necessary" to restore order in Madagascar. This would pave way for new local elections to take place in the next 60 days. "The people need to be heard again." He said, "It's time to listen to the youth." The leader of the National Assembly's opposition has disputed the decree. Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko is the vice president of the National Assembly and said that the decree was not valid. DEMOSTRATIONS ELEVATING THE TEMPEL The opposition is trying to collect enough signatures in order to impeach Rajoelina, who commands a majority within the parliament. On September 25, protests erupted across the country over water and electricity shortages. They quickly grew into a general uprising against corruption, poor governance, and a lack basic services. This anger was similar to recent protests in Nepal and Morocco against ruling elites. The anger was similar to recent protests against ruling elites in Nepal and Morocco. Many people were waving Malagasy and Gen Z protest banners, which are skulls and crossbones that originated from the Japanese anime "One Piece". French President Emmanuel Macron stated on Tuesday that the constitutional order must remain and that France understands the grievances expressed by the youth but should not exploit them. Rajoelina appears increasingly isolated since losing the support from CAPSAT, a unit of elites who had helped him seize power during a 2009 coup. CAPSAT joined protesters at the weekend and said it would not fire on them. It escorted thousands of demonstrators to the Antananarivo main square. Later, it announced that it would take control of the military. A new army chief was appointed. Rajoelina warned on Sunday about an attempted coup. Since then, the paramilitary police and gendarmerie have broken ranks with President. Madagascar has an estimated 30 million people, of which three quarters live in poverty. According to the World Bank, the GDP per person has dropped by 45% since independence in 1960. Reporting by Lovasoa Rabary and Tim Cocks from Antananarivo, and Giulia Paraavicini from Nairobi; Writing and editing by Andrew Cawthorne
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The oil executives expect a rebalancing of the market from surplus to deficit in the medium term
A range of oil executives in London said this week that the global oil market would tighten on a medium-to-longer term. They remained optimistic despite an immediate glut caused by increased production. The executives stated that the production decline rates could increase as oil prices drop, helping to rebalance a market where demand will be supported in the long-term by the rising consumption of emerging economies. In its monthly oil report, published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said that the global oil surplus would reach 3.6 millions barrels per day by the end of the fourth quarter. This compares to a 1.9million bpd daily average for the first three months of this year. The rising production of both OPEC+ and non-members, as well as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), has held oil prices in check this year. Brent futures traded at around $62 per barrel on Tuesday, down $15 from the same day last. TIGHTNESS MEDIUM-TERM Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, said that oil production by producers outside OPEC would start to fall if the price of crude drops to $60 per barrel. Pouyanne, speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, said that the short-term market was a bit bearish, but the medium-term outlook is quite positive. He cited the decline in production rates and the fact that global oil demand has not peaked. ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods said on Monday, at the same conference that if investment is not made in unconventional oil fields and gas, decline rates may reach 15% per annum. He also stated that he believes that oversupply would be a short-term problem. Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco's CEO, said on Monday that the company sees a resilient demand and a pressing need to invest in long-term supply. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance stated that the key question for companies such as mine is where will the conventional oil come from in order to meet the growing demand, given the plateauing or peaking of U.S. unconventional supplies. Lance said that oil prices may recover to $75-$80 a barrel in mid-cycle, since supply must be increased to meet demand.
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Copper prices fall on US-China Trade Tensions
Copper prices dropped on Tuesday as a result of concerns about trade tensions between China and the United States, two of the world's largest economies. These tensions could have an impact on the demand for metals that are dependent on growth. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 2.6%, to $10544.50 per metric ton as of 1004 GMT. The price of copper, which is used for power and construction, has dropped 4% after concerns about a reduced mine supply following disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics, said that despite the supply issues, copper demand is still not good. The 21-day moving average is currently $10,375. On Tuesday, the U.S. & China began charging additional fees to ocean shipping companies that transport everything from holiday toys and crude oil. U.S. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated on Monday that Donald Trump is still on track to meet Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at the end of October in South Korea. The Yangshan copper premium is a major metals consumer in China. The price of copper, which is a reflection of demand, dropped 8%, to $45 per ton, a new low for two months. The yuan fell against the dollar, which made metals priced in dollars more expensive for Chinese buyers. Due to the activity leading up to this Wednesday when holders of short positions will have to reduce or rollover contracts, the spreads between LME cash contracts and the three-months contracts for copper, zinc, and aluminium widened on Monday. On Monday, the premium for cash copper compared to the three-month contract reached its highest level since June at $227 per ton. LME aluminium dropped 0.8% to 2,739.50 per ton. Zinc fell 2.4% to 2,946.50. Nickel fell 0.2% to $16,175. Tin and lead both declined 0.4%, to $35,505 a ton and $1,980.50 a ton respectively. Lead, nickel and zinc all reached their lowest levels since September 10, 11, and 30, respectively. (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo; Polina Devtt)
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LMEWEEK - Copper producer Aurubis has held discussions with US about support for a new smelter. CEO of Aurubis says
Aurubis, a German company, has had preliminary discussions with the U.S. Government about the support of a new copper-smelter there following the launch a recycling facility. The biggest copper producer in Europe is looking at three options to capitalize on a U.S. push to increase domestic production of the metal. President Donald Trump announced a tariff of 50% on copper products, but excluded ores, concentrates, and cathodes. We need to first lay out our options and make more concrete proposals. Toralf Haag, CEO of the metals industry's LME Week, said that there were positive signals from the U.S. Government. The US is a big demand for reducing capacity Aurubis began production last month at its new recycling facility in Georgia, U.S.A., the first greenfield site it built in 115-years. The plant will eventually ramp up to an annual output of 70,000 tons of high grade blister copper. Aurubis said that the U.S. can only supply half of its 1.7 million ton refined copper demand from domestic production. The gap will widen in the coming years, as the demand is expected to increase by two thirds, to 2.3 millions by 2035. "There are 60 Smelters in China and 15 in Europe. Now, there are only three smelters left in the U.S." Haag explained that there is a high demand for smelting capacities. He said that building a new smelter is a long-term undertaking, but two alternatives could be realized in as little as three to four year without the support of government. Haag explained that the first step would be to expand recycling operations in the United States by building an anode smelter and tank house for cathodes, and perhaps rods. The second option would be to build a new recycling plant in the U.S. West Coast to take advantage higher scrap availability following the tariff ruling that limited exports. Aurubis said that the U.S. Recycling Market is expected to grow by 26% in the next decade, to 555,00 metric tons per year. A COMPANY PLAN HIGHER PLATINUM AND ANTIMONY PRODUCTION Haag stated that Aurubis plans to increase platinum and antimony production by building in Hamburg a complex recycling plant and a new precious-metal refinery, which will cost about 500 million euro ($577.7 millions). Aurubis, citing a strong demand and concerns about a shortage of supply, increased the premium that it would charge European customers in 2019 to $315 per metric tonne, a 38% increase from last year. Last week, supply concerns from mine disruptions occurring in Indonesia and Chile as well as the Congo pushed benchmark copper at the London Metal Exchange up to $11,000 per ton. This was a 16-month high. On Tuesday morning, it was down 2.7% to $10,525 per ton.
How Trump's second administration affects service: Musk, tariffs and more
Donald Trump's go back to the White House after winning the Nov. 5 U.S. governmental election might reshape American service. Much depends on whom he designates as deputies and cabinet members, consisting of the function of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and what tariffs he enacts. Following are some major problems and sectors to watch:
WHAT ROLE WILL ELON MUSK PLAY? After some nudging from the world's wealthiest individual, Trump has said he would tap Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead a new government effectiveness commission. Musk has actually stated a minimum of $2 trillion might be cut from the $6.75 trillion federal budget plan. How that works might be a crucial to the next Trump administration.
Does effectiveness imply fewer guidelines and regulators? Musk has been a singing critic, for instance, of federal review of his SpaceX rocket company. That might mean less oversight of self-driving automobiles (a Tesla organization) or rocket launches and much more. The two guys are not entirely in sync: Trump has actually said he won't. let California require all cars in the state go electric in. a decade, however Musk runs the world's most valuable EV business. A. rising tide raises all boats. So to the level that Elon is able. to obstruct the vilification of EVs by a possible Trump. administration, all the much better, said James Chen, former head of. policy for Rivian and Tesla. How Musk would resolve disputes of. interest between his interests in autos, space, health,. construction and artificial intelligence is unclear. Trump has actually pledged to be a crypto president, a strategy that may. start with replacing industry opponent Gary Gensler, the. Securities and Exchange Commission chair who has taken legal action against most of. the market-- including Coinbase, Binance and Kraken. Gensler's replacement is expected to review - and potentially. wreck - accounting guidance and produce industry exemptions. from SEC rules. Musk, too is a crypto fan, as is Silicon. Valley Trump fan Marc Andreessen and incoming Vice. President J.D. Vance.
Musk is also a huge proponent of carbon-free energy, with. Tesla being a major provider of planetary systems and batteries. Trump has actually guaranteed to kill the offshore wind market and. rescind all unspent funds under the Inflation Reduction Act--. Biden's signature climate law. But Trump faces dissent in his. ranks: Republican legislators, oil business and others see. huge red state gains from the law. Musk has actually played into that,. developing his 2nd U.S. electric car factory in Texas, for. instance.
TARIFFS. Trump has actually proposed a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and 60% on. Chinese-made items, which if enacted would impact the entire. economy by pushing customer costs higher. The Tax Structure, a. non-partisan think tank, determined Trump tariffs would trek. taxes by $524 billion annually, diminish GDP by a minimum of 0.8%, and. cut employment by 684,000 full-time comparable jobs possibly. affecting retail employees, the biggest private sector company. He also recommended he might impose a 25% tariff on all imports. from Mexico.
Trump's tariff proposals might decrease American customers'. investing power between $46 billion and $78 billion each year,. according to a National Retail Federation research study.
Clothing, toys, furniture, home devices and footwear. would be the most afflicted categories, the study stated. Retailers. would move operations beyond China to countries including. Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam. Big-box shops like Walmart and. Target would face higher supply chain costs, while supermarkets. like Kroger, Albertsons, and Publix, which minimally source from. China, might benefit. Shipping and transportation specialists state. sweeping tariffs could at first bolster their company before. depressing trade. Tariffs loom over tech too. In recent weeks, Trump has also. greatly slammed the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act that has. sought to partly subsidize companies building factories in. the United States. Rather, he said the nation needs to enforce. tariffs on chips coming into the nation, particularly from. Taiwan's TSMC.
Tariffs also would dramatically raise costs for the sustainable. energy industries in the U.S., which rely greatly on Chinese. elements. Trump actions without Congressional backing could. consist of import tariffs of 10-20% (ex China), 60% -200% on Chinese. imports which might impact the expense of renewable projects,. particularly solar and storage tasks, according to an. October research note from Bernstein.
And after that there is the concern of China's retaliation. It is. the world's greatest soy importer and pork consumer, but it has. diversified its food supply base because Trump's tariffs in his. first administration. Additionally, China stopped working to totally comply. with a contract to buy more U.S. agricultural goods that it. signed with Trump in January 2020. Trump has actually pledged in his 2nd. term to impose 60% duties on imports from China, raising. issues that Beijing will retaliate by lowering imports of U.S. farm items.
OIL: DRILL INFANT DRILL - BUT NOT IRAN. The United States is currently the world's most significant oil and gas. manufacturer, however Trump wants to eliminate remaining barriers. He'll raise a freeze on brand-new melted gas export permits,. broaden federal drilling auctions, speed up brand-new pipeline. allowing and attempt to reverse or deteriorate regulations targeted at. cutting power plant and automobile emissions. Trump's assistance for the. oil and gas market could likewise lead him to temper his. opposition to the Inflation Decrease Act, considering that oil companies. are receiving some financing from it for carbon-free ventures. like carbon capture and sequestration.
The huge oil policy wildcard is how Trump will deal with rival. exporters, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is. likely that Trump would eliminate sanctions on Russian energy, however. leave in location those on Iran, stated Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at. the University of Houston. Jesse Jones, an analyst with. seeking advice from firm Energy Aspects, anticipates even more. We believe. that the effect of a Trump administration returning to an optimum. pressure campaign on Iran could cause a million barrel each day. decline in Iranian crude exports, he said.
LABOR UNIONS. Organized labor made excellent strides under President Joe Biden,. who signed up with a picket line with U.S. auto employees. The UAW desires. to broaden and in future strikes the federal government could be. asked to intervene in a manner that undercuts employee bargaining. power, something Democrats have so far declined to do.
Republican politicians have actually normally been unfriendly to unions, however. Trump has actually played a different game, connecting to blue-collar. employees. Strong support among lots of union workers might press. Trump to protect those voters, stated Anthony Miyazaki, a. marketing teacher at Florida International University. Still,. his record of designating leaders to the National Labor Relations. Board resulted in a roll back of workers' rights to form unions. If this cycle repeats, it might possibly reverse the gains. unions have actually made since the pandemic, consisting of successful. arranging efforts at Starbucks and Amazon and other new. movements at Apple, REI and Trader Joe's.
OTHER SUBJECTS CONSIST OF:
FINANCE. Within banking, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of. America and other loan providers will likely take pleasure in a reprieve. from stiff capital walkings, M&A hoop-jumping, and Biden's scrap. charges crackdown. Trump is anticipated to quickly install. industry-friendly Republican politicians at the monetary regulators. But. those gains may be balanced out if Trump follows through on tax and. trade policies that will widen the deficit and fuel inflation,. in turn boosting loaning rates. That could press existing loans. into the red, state experts.
ANTITRUST AND TECH. Trump may walk back the Department of Justice's quote to separate. Alphabet's Google and choose settling with companies over. competitors problems in mergers, instead of brand-new trials, attorneys. stated. The country's difficult, top merger police, Federal Trade. Commission Chair Lina Khan, is likely headed for the. door. More broadly, Trump's backers in Silicon Valley, including. financiers Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen and Tesla chief Elon. Musk, desire less regulation of new innovation, from synthetic. intelligence to rockets. They have a champion in previous endeavor. capitalist Vance.
MEDIA: SEE WHAT YOU STATE. Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos chose days before the vote. that the paper would not endorse anybody for president,. explaining it as a principled relocate to regain reliability. Hundreds of thousands of subscribers left, lots of stating it was. political cowardice. USA Today and the LA Times also decreased to. endorse a candidate. The message is pretty clear today,. stated former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler. That is conceding to the. autocrat in advance before you're asked to, said New York. University School of Specialist Research studies accessory associate. professor Helio Fred Garcia, an author of 2 books about Trump.
During the campaign, Trump called on the Federal. Communications Commission to remove ABC and CBS of their. broadcast licenses. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel has denounced. Trump's calls to revoke licenses for broadcast stations, mentioning. totally free speech protections. However the self-reliance of the FCC could. be at danger if Trump follows through on a campaign pledge to. bring regulatory firms, such as the FCC, under presidential. authority, Wheeler stated. The president also could invoke his. emergency situation powers under the Communications Act to exert control. over broadcasters, citing national security concerns.
Even so, a new Trump presidency will likely give cable television. news networks like CNN, Fox News and MSNBC and news outlets. consisting of the New york city Times and Washington Post the exact same huge. jolt to audiences and audience that his first term generated.
PHARMACEUTICALS. Trump just recently said he would let former presidential candidate. and anti-vaccine supporter Robert F. Kennedy Jr. go wild on. vaccine and healthcare policy. Kennedy has said that Trump. guaranteed him manage over the FDA, CDC, HHS, and the USDA. Those. tasks could potentially give him manage over what vaccines are. authorized and whether Americans are recommended to get them. Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick has said Kennedy is not. going to be put in charge of the Department of Health and Human. Providers, however recommended he might encourage on vaccines.
Jeremy Levin, CEO of biotech company Ovid Therapies. and previous chairman of biotech lobby group BIO, said he. would be alarmed if Kennedy was offered oversight over vaccines,. which other executives had actually likewise expressed issue. Vaccine. denialism, which is a main plank of RFK's, is maybe as. hazardous as anything you can think of, he said, including that. President Trump's previous visits for the COVID vaccine. effort and the FDA suggest to him that more moderate positions. will win out. Some executives likewise were worried that Kennedy's. impact might damage the U.S.'s track record and ability to examine. new drugs.
(source: Reuters)