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Shanghai copper reaches near five-month high on China stimulus hope
Shanghai copper rose to its highest level in almost five months on Friday, buoyed as expected by the expectation of additional stimulus from China's top consumer to spur economic growth. By 0158 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 1% to $10,875.71 a ton, its highest level since October 2024. Chinese officials said on Thursday that they would ease monetary policy "at the appropriate time", and could take additional stimulus measures if economic growth falters. Market participants expect China's National People's Congress (NPC) to announce additional stimulus measures as the trade war between China and the United States escalates. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has suspended the 25% tariffs that he imposed on most goods coming from Canada and Mexico this week. The exemptions expire on 2 April, when Trump threatens to impose a worldwide regime of reciprocal duties on all U.S. Trading Partners. Trump announced that 25% of aluminium and steel imported from March 12 will be subject to tariffs. He also ordered an investigation into the possibility of new tariffs for copper. Citi stated in a report that they expect the price of ex-U.S. Copper to drop to $8,500 a ton during the second quarter this year due to investors' copper positions unwinding on tariff headwinds. SHFE aluminium climbed 0.5% to 20920 yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.8% to 24080 yuan. Nickel jumped 1.4% to 129700 yuan. Lead advanced by 0.6% to 17490 yuan. Tin firmed up 2.1% to 262,850. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange was $9,668.5 per metric ton. This is a 0.7% decline. LME aluminium rose 0.1%, to $2700 per ton. Zinc fell 0.5%, to $2914, Nickel eased by 0.2%, to $16,260. Lead dropped 0.5%, to $2037. Tin lost 0.1%, to $32,550. ($1 = 7.2501 yuan) (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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The biggest weekly oil drop since October due to tariff uncertainty and supply gains
The oil price was little changed on Friday, but is set to have its biggest weekly drop since October due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Tariff policy creating concern about the growth of demand at the same time that major producers are planning to increase their output. Brent futures were up 13 cents or 0.19% to $69.59 per barrel at 0217 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures increased 8 cents or 0.08% to $66.44 per barrel. Brent, however, is set to drop 4.9% this week, its largest weekly drop since the week of 14 October. WTI will also drop by 4.8% this week, which is its largest weekly decline since the week of October 14. The fluctuating U.S. trade policy, which is the largest oil consumer in the world, has caused oil markets to be thrown into turmoil. The U.S. president Donald Trump suspended on Thursday the 25% tariffs that he had imposed until April 2. However, steel and aluminum tariffs will still be in effect as scheduled on March 12. The amended order doesn't cover all Canadian energy products. These are subject to a separate 10% tax. Tariffs are seen as a hindrance to economic growth, and thus the growth of oil demand. The uncertainty surrounding the policy also impacts the economy. Brent prices fell on Wednesday to their lowest level since December 2021, after U.S. crude stocks rose, and following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) decision to increase its output quotas. The group announced on Monday it would proceed with its planned increase in April production, which will add 138,000 barrels of oil per day to market. As the U.S. considers steps to halt Iran's exports, some of the downward pressure on prices has ebbed. Sources told reporters on Thursday that Trump was considering a plan for inspecting Iranian oil tanks at sea, using an agreement aimed at weapons or mass destruction. This is part of his "maximum" pressure to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Colleen howe)
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Sources say that Marathon will begin maintenance work at Robinson Refinery in Illinois.
Marathon will begin planned maintenance activities on units at its 255,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Robinson, Illinois on March 18, research company IIR and a source familiar with plant operations said on Thursday. IIR announced that the refinery's primary unit which processes sweet and sour oil will be shut down for maintenance. This includes heat exchanger repairs. The plant's 85,000-barrel-per-day diesel hydrotreater unit, 65,000-bpd vacuum distillation unit and 28,000-bpd hydrocracker unit will also undergo turnaround. IIR stated that the crude unit will be shut down for 7-10 days, and then restarted at a reduced capacity estimated at 75 percent until the remainder of the planned works is completed. Another source said that the 38.500-bpd Reformer unit would also be undergoing a turnaround. Source: The source expects the maintenance to last around two months. Robinson refinery converts sweet and sour crude oil into gasoline, distillates and natural gas liquids, petrochemicals as well as propane and heavy fuel oils, according to its website. Marathon's spokesperson refused to comment on the refinery operation.
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Nasdaq confirms a correction; dollar falls as news of tariffs fuels unease
The dollar and stock indexes both fell sharply on Thursday. Nasdaq confirmed that it had been in a downward correction since its peak last December as the announcements of U.S. president Donald Trump regarding tariffs increased investor uncertainty. A day after the German Bund yield for 10-years saw its largest rise since the 1990s, the global bond market continued to sell off. Investors were trying to keep up with tariff headlines, which caused volatility in the market. Trump's trade policy has been changing rapidly. On Thursday, he exempted for one month the goods that come from Canada and Mexico as part of a North American Trade pact from the 25% tariffs imposed by him earlier this week. On Tuesday, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada along with new duties on Chinese products. "Trump's been very confused about these tariffs. "One day, they are on and then the next they are off for a whole month," Tim Ghriskey said. He is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder. He said, "He warned us there would be some initial pain here and that the market does not like pain." The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Thursday, bringing its total decline to 10.4% since December 16th's record close. This is a common definition of a correction. The Cboe Volatility Index rose to 24,87, its highest level since December 18. A chipmaker index fell 4.5% as investors were not impressed by the Marvell Technology sales forecast. Marvell shares dropped 19.8% in one day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 427.51 points or 0.99% to 42,579.08; the S&P 500 declined 104.11 or 1.78% to 5,738.52; and the Nasdaq Composite was down 483.48 or 2.61% to 18,069.26. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 8.33 points or 0.97% to 850.38. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.03%. As investors became more risk-averse, and as concerns grew over Trump's tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economic system, the U.S. Dollar weakened. The safe-haven currencies yen and Swiss Franc rose. The dollar fell 0.9% in afternoon trading against the yen and reached a low of 147.65. It had earlier hit 147.31, a level not seen for five months. The dollar fell to a 3-month low against the Swiss Franc of 0.8828 francs, and was last trading down 0.9%. The euro was down by 0.05% to $1.0785 after hitting a high of $1.0854, a record for four months. The euro is on course for its largest weekly increase since May 2009. The European Central Bank, as was expected, cut interest rates and said that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive. Traders interpreted this to mean that another cut could not be guaranteed in April. The yield on the 10-year German Bund was last to rise by 10 basis points, at 2.884%. It had risen as high as 2,929% Wednesday. German lawmakers will begin debating a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund as well as sweeping changes in state borrowing rules for funding defence on March 13. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased by 1.5 basis points, to 4.282% from 4.267% at late Wednesday. Investors also analyzed the latest economic data to look for cracks ahead of the key U.S. monthly payrolls report on Friday. The Labor Department reported that weekly initial U.S. claims for unemployment fell by 21,000 claims to 221,000 claims, which is a larger decline than the 235,000 forecast by economists. Earlier in the day, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global outplacement company, said that the number of planned job cuts jumped 245%, to 172,017, last month, reaching the highest level seen since July 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic was raging. Commentary from European leaders was also in the spotlight. They said that they would stand with Ukraine and increase their defense spending in a world shattered by Trump's reversal in U.S. policy. Trump's suspension this week of military assistance to Kyiv fanned fears that the region could no longer rely upon U.S. security, which has been in place since World War Two. Brent futures rose 16 cents or 0.2% to settle at $69.46 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 5 cents or 0.1% to settle at $66.36. Spot gold dropped 0.1% to $2.915.83 per ounce.
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US agency blocks California EV repeal vote
The Government Accountability Office stated on Thursday that the Biden administration’s approval of California’s landmark plan to stop the sale of gasoline only vehicles by 2035 does not require review or possible repeal by Congress. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, under President Donald Trump, sent the approval last month to Congress stating that it was correctly considered a regulation under the Congressional Review Act. The GAO stated that the decision is an order, and therefore not subject to review. Trump pledged as a candidate to revoke waivers granted to California by the EPA in accordance with the Clean Air Act, to demand more EVs, and stricter vehicle emission standards. These rules were adopted by 11 other states, including New York Massachusetts and Oregon. The EPA has said that it believes the actions taken by California, as a result of three waivers granted by the EPA last month, should be considered by Congress to be rules that can be repealed. California's rule requires 35% of cars in 2026 to be zero-emission models. Automakers claim this figure is impossible to achieve given current sales. This number will rise to 68% by 2030. California says that the rule is essential to achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets and reducing smog-forming pollution. Shelley Moore Capito, chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said that Republicans are evaluating next steps. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat Senator, said that the GAO's ruling was "clearly consistent" with previous decisions and will "enormously help in protecting California’s ability to protect their citizens." Under former president Joe Biden, the EPA took the position the waiver wasn't a rule so it couldn't be reviewed by Congress. California announced its first plan in 2020, requiring that by 2035, at least 80% new cars sold are electric models and up to 20% hybrid plug-ins. In December, the EPA granted a waiver of California's "Omnibus", low-NOx regulations for heavy-duty highway vehicles and off-road engines. It also submitted this waiver to Congress. Separately, the U.S. Transportation Department has taken steps to reverse aggressive fuel efficiency rules that Biden had adopted. (Reporting and editing by Chris Craft, Diane Craft and Chris Shepardson)
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Costco beats quarterly sales estimates on bulk buying surge, misses profit estimates
Costco Wholesale, which sells in bulk groceries, electronics, and home furnishings, beat Wall Street's expectations on Thursday. However, it missed on profit projections due to rising costs. Shares of the company, which had risen 39% by 2024, dropped nearly 1% during extended trading. The only retail chain that is open to members has seen a rise in the number of customers who are looking for value. This trend was accentuated during the holiday shopping season when many retailers offered heavy discounts. Costco, however, is susceptible to trade wars that may develop from President Donald Trump’s tariffs on U.S. imports, as well retaliatory duties by other countries, including Canada. Costco said that Canada and Mexico are both under U.S. tariffs and have 109 and 41 warehouses respectively. The two largest operations are in Canada and Mexico, after the United States and Puerto Rico. Seven of the 897 warehouses are located in China. As tariff-related uncertainty continues, Costco will likely see an impact on merchandise sourcing decisions and product pricing. Costco's merchandise costs rose by 9% in the first quarter of this year. LSEG data shows that the company's revenue for the quarter rose 9%, to $63.72 Billion. This compares to analysts' expectations of $63.13 Billion. Costco's earnings per share were $4.02, a little less than analysts' estimates of $4.11
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US extends protection to Venezuelan-owned Citgo against creditors
A notice on the Treasury Department's website showed that the U.S. Treasury Department had extended until early July a licence protecting Venezuelan-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum against creditors. The move came after President Donald Trump's government terminated a license for Chevron that allowed it to operate in Venezuela. Venezuela's opposition asked the U.S. for protection of Citgo - the crown jewel in the South American nation's overseas assets - as an American court proceeds this year with the auction of parent shares to pay its creditors. After the auction, the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) must approve any new owners of shares. These owners will ultimately run Citgo's plants. Venezuelan opposition leaders asked Trump's government to stop any funding to President Nicolas Maduro. Washington does not recognise his two reelections. This led to the cancellation of an authorization this month that allowed Chevron's to export Venezuelan oil since 2022. The new license, which supersedes a previous authorization issued in early November, puts on hold until July 3 all transactions related to a bond maturing in 2020 issued by Citgo's ultimate parent, Caracas-headquartered PDVSA. Citgo, and related U.S. companies, were sued by many bondholders for compensation after PDVSA defaulted. Maduro, along with his government, have accused the U.S.A. of attempting to "steal Citgo". Washington hasn't recognized Maduro's re-elections in 2018 and sanctions have been imposed on Venezuela for the past six years. (Reporting and writing by Brendan O'Brien, Marianna Pararaga and Susan Heavey. Editing and proofreading by Leslie Adler and David Gregorio.
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As Trump's latest tariff news weighs on the dollar and stocks, both drop.
The stock indexes plunged sharply Thursday in volatile trading as investors digested the latest tariff announcements by U.S. president Donald Trump, and the U.S. Dollar fell as investors became risk-averse. A day after the German Bund yield for 10-years saw its largest rise since the 1990s, the global bond market continued to sell off. Investors reacted to Trump's latest remarks on tariffs by choppy trading. Trump exempted for one month, under the North American Trade Pact, goods from Canada and Mexico from the 25% tariffs he imposed this week. This is the latest in a series of rapid-fire changes to his trade policy which has rattled the financial markets and the business community. On Tuesday, he imposed new duties on Chinese products and a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports. This added to the concerns about inflation and growth. "Trump's been very confused about these tariffs. "One day, they are on and then the next they are off for a whole month," Tim Ghriskey said. He is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder. He said, "He warned us there would be some initial pain here and that the market does not like pain." A decline in the index of chipmakers was also noted after Marvell's sales forecast failed to impress investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 467.34, or 1.09 percent, to 42 538.76. The S&P 500 declined 106.64, or 1.83 percent, to 5,735.99. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 486.84, or 2.62 percent, to 18,065.89. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 8.70 points or 1.01% to 850.01. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.03%. The dollar fell 0.77% against the Japanese yen to 147.74. The euro was up by 0.07% to $1.0797 after hitting a high of $1.0854, a record for four months. The euro is on track to have its largest weekly increase since May 2009. The European Central Bank, as was expected, cut interest rates and said that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive. Traders interpreted this to mean that another cut could not be guaranteed in April. The yield on the 10-year German Bund was last to rise by 10 basis points, at 2.884%. It had risen as high as 2,929% Wednesday. German lawmakers will begin debating a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund as well as sweeping changes in state borrowing rules for funding defence on March 13. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 1.7 basis points from late Wednesday to 4,284%. Investors analyzed the latest economic data to look for cracks ahead of the U.S. monthly payrolls report on Friday. According to the Labor Department's weekly report, initial U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 and now stand at 221,000 seasonally adjusted, which is below the 235,000 expected by economists polled. Commentary from European leaders was also in the spotlight. They said that they would stand with Ukraine and increase their defense spending in a world shattered by Trump's reversal in U.S. policy. Trump's suspension this week of military assistance to Kyiv fueled fears that the region could no longer depend on U.S. security, which has been in place since World War Two.
Commodities under pressure as stocks slide on United States financial worries
Products including oil, natural gas, metals and agricultural products signed up with an international selloff in equities on Monday as fears of a. U.S. economic downturn stoked worries over need, though losses varied. extensively.
Products had currently taken a hit in current weeks, weighed. down by a sluggish economy in top purchaser China, with petroleum. down around 5% recently, copper striking a four-month short on the. London Metal Exchange, and corn near its weakest since 2020.
Commodities have seen selling pressure throughout the last. month, basically indicating the momentum crash presently hitting. stocks has to a certain degree already took place, Saxo Bank. analyst Ole Hansen stated.
Crude oil dropped around 1-1.5% on Monday in volatile trade,. less than losses on major equity indexes as U.S. recession fears. and possible ramifications for oil demand were rather mitigated. by cost assistance from increasing tensions in the Middle East.
Geopolitics, for instance stress and anxiety about Middle East supply. interruption, and the growing belief that OPEC will not loosen up. voluntary (output) cuts, supplies relative assistance for oil as. opposed to equities, PVM analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters.
Israel and the U.S. are bracing for a serious escalation in. the Middle East after Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah. pledged to strike back versus Israel for recently's killings of. Hamas's leader and a leading Hezbollah military leader.
Copper rates toppled over 3% to 4-1/2 month lows as. a weakening demand outlook in China and the United States,. the world's two largest economies, triggered a sell-off of the. metal utilized in power and building.
Gold was last down 2.7%.
Gold on a relative basis does better than other metals when. individuals are fretted about recession. However it will likewise come under. pressure since people offer it to satisfy their margins in other. markets, Liberum expert Tom Price stated.
European gas, power and carbon contracts likewise fell.
European benchmark gas for the month ahead sank. more than 5% in early trade to 35.17 euros/megawatt hour.
Gas has actually been under pressure from higher Norwegian supply and. seasonally high temperatures, but panic selling in line with the. larger sell-off was also an element, according to one trader.
EU carbon authorization prices for shipment in December. were down around 3.5% on fears that an economic decline will. limit activity, according to Henry Lush, EU carbon analyst at. consultancy Veyt.
The majority of farming markets suffered too, with wheat. down 3-3.5%, corn down 1.5%, soybeans down 1% and. sugar at a near two-year low.
The huge sell-off in world equity and other financial. markets today has actually likewise pushed down wheat, corn and soybeans as a. risk-off atmosphere dominates, said Matt Ammermann, StoneX. product risk supervisor.
This is bypassing the effect of the weaker dollar which. would usually be encouraging for U.S. grains and soybeans.
SOFT OR DIFFICULT LANDING?
Guy Wolf, international head of market analytics at Marex, stated. softer U.S. data could assist markets by making it much easier for. central banks to cut interest rates, although a difficult landing for. economies would ultimately strike demand.
If you take a look at the Chinese information, domestically it is soft. and exports are struck, so if the rest of the world compromises ... it is plainly going to be unfavorable for base metals, he stated.
Still, he stated decreases for metals must be restricted by. supply disturbances and demand from new energy sectors.
Growth in China's services activity accelerated in July,. helped by brand-new orders, although momentum in abroad demand reduced. to its slowest in 11 months, a private sector study showed.
China needs to ramp up its fiscal stimulus to spur economic. growth and set a company inflation target to avoid the nation. falling under a low inflation trap, a central bank policy. consultant said in remarks seen on Friday.
(source: Reuters)