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Morgan Stanley cuts Zambia's bonds to 'do not like' ahead of restructuring

Morgan Stanley cut Zambia's. soontoberestructured government bonds to a dislike position. on Monday, saying the prices of the bonds were now extremely. positive due to the country's worst drought in 40 years.

Zambia's shareholders are expected to provide a final green. light next week to a $3 billion restructuring concurred after years. of overspending and after that the crushing blow of the COVID-19. pandemic pressed Zambia into default in 2020.

The dry spell has given that left a 3rd of the population. requiring food aid and piled yet more pressure on the economy.

We no longer see threats as well balanced and hence move ZAMBIN. ( Zambia's bonds) to a dislike stance, Morgan Stanley's expert. Neville Mandimika wrote in a note. He said the drought was. likely to have significant effects for the economy.

Our stance is conditional upon the risk of downside. driven by a drought. After all, weather is unpredictable, he. added.

Records show droughts in Zambia usually last for at least. 2 years and GDP growth has tended to be 1.6 percentage points. lower during dry spell years compared with the previous year's. reading.

Mandimika said that pointed to substantial downside. dangers to current IMF forecasts that Zambia's economy would grow. at a typical rate of 4.8% over the next 2 years deal with.

Zambia's provisionally concurred restructuring deal proposes. switching three of its existing bonds for 2 new amortising. bonds, one of which - dubbed 'Bond B' - will deliver greater. payments if the nation's financial outlook improves or if the. IMF upgrades its view of its financial obligation carrying capacity to medium. from weak.

Shareholders have till May 30 to vote on the proposal, but. with Zambia's existing bonds now trading at around 77 cents in. the dollar, the risk is that the drought. prevents those much better results, Morgan Stanley said.

In addition to the devastating impact on food growers, Lake. Kariba, which feeds the country's primary hydroelectric power dams,. is now simply 13% full, half the level from a year back, which has. required the federal government to import some of its power.

The important mining sector has actually not been spared. ZESCO,. Zambia's main electrical energy company, has stated a force majeure. with regard to its contractual obligations to provide to the. sector.

While a 75% possibility (of the Bond B payment being. set off) remains the market consensus, we believe that this now. faces considerable downside risks, especially as the drought. continues, Mandimika stated.

(source: Reuters)