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Oil volatile; Asian shares rise despite Venezuelan impact
Asian stocks opened higher on Monday and oil prices were 'choppy' as investors looked beyond the U.S. military actions?over the weekend? in Venezuela in order to prepare for the upcoming week of economic data in the first trading week of 2019. S&P 500 futures and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan were both 0.1% higher at the end of last week. Investors are evaluating the impact of a weekend filled with dramatic events that saw the U.S. capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. On Saturday, President Donald 'Trump' said that he would temporarily place Venezuela under American control. Neil Shearing is the group chief economist at Capital Economics. He said that the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. will not have any significant economic effects on the global economy in the near future. "But the geopolitical and political ramifications of this decision will be felt." WTI crude futures?flood between gains and losses?and?were?last up 0.1% at $57.36 as oil markets assessed impact of U.S. involvement in Venezuela, and a Sunday vote by OPEC+ to maintain oil production. "A bearish story on oil prices is highly unlikely." Venezuela will need capital and engineering help to increase its production, which has never been impressive, said Marko Papic of BCA Research, Los Angeles. Papic said: "We do not consider ourselves to be oil sellers in this situation, and we think that there could be downside risks." The Nikkei225 in Japan rose 2.5%, reaching its highest level in two months. Meanwhile, the Kospi index of Seoul grew 2%, setting a new record. The?U.S. The dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, rose 0.1% to 98.55 last night, extending recent gains for a fifth day in a row. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was last 0.2 basis points higher at 4.187%. Gold rose 1%, trading at $4371.29. Bitcoin last traded up 0.2%, at $91,452.90. Ether was last trading flat, at $3,141.29. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Muralikumar Aantharaman).
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Russian politicians say Trump strike on Venezuela unlawful, destabilising
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and a senior legislator said at the weekend that "U.S. The actions of President Donald Trump in Venezuela are illegal and destabilising. However, they can be portrayed as an assertion of U.S. interest. Comments follow Trump's ?statement The United States has struck Venezuela, and Maduro and Maduro's wife have been captured and removed from the country. This prompted international reactions and calls for urgent UN discussion. Medvedev said to TASS that Trump's behavior was not only illegal, but also internally coherent as it served U.S. interest. "It is important to acknowledge that, despite Trump's obvious illegality, there is a consistency in his behavior. Medvedev said that Trump and his team "defend their country's interests very harshly". Medvedev claimed Latin America was seen as "the backyard" of the United States and suggested Trump wanted to gain leverage over Venezuelan oil supplies. Medvedev, citing TASS, said that Uncle Sam's motivation has always been the same: to take other people's goods. He said that if a similar?operation was carried out against a more powerful country, this would be viewed as an act or war. Alexei Pushkov is a Russian Senator who chairs the Federation Council's information policy commission. He said that Trump's rhetoric and the operation could prove to be less effective than they were. "It is impossible to deny the impact of Trump's statements and his actions. "Their effectiveness is a different matter," Pushkov stated on Telegram. He said that the initial "triumphs", which he compared to premature U.S. victories in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, later became defeats or prolonged crises. Pushkov stated that the United States had violated international norms by seizing Venezuela's president and attacking Venezuela. This "alarmed" the entire world, returning it to the "wild?imperialism from the 19th century", and bringing back a Wild West right of action at will within the Western Hemisphere. What will be the final outcome? "Will this 'triumph,' not become a catastrophe?" asked he. The Russian Federation has maintained strong ties with Venezuela for many years, including energy cooperation, high-level contacts and military links. Moscow has also supported Caracas in its diplomatic efforts to increase trade and investment. (Reporting, writing and editing by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge & Stephen Coates).
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Trump's political base abandons isolationism and cheers Maduro's capture
Many supporters of U.S. president Donald Trump have praised the capture and detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, describing it as a quick, painless victory. However, political analysts warn that support may wane if "the operation drags out" or echoes previous foreign interventions. Despite a few conservative figures criticizing the attack on Venezuela, and the detention of Maduro, as a betrayal to Trump's pledge "America First", most of Trump's Republican allies sided with him. Early support was given even though Trump had said that the United States temporarily "run" Venezuela, and would?work to?tap into its oil reserves. This raised the possibility of an open-ended foreign involvement which Trump and his MAGA base are opposed to. Political analysts say that for now, the base is willing to cheer the removal of Maduro. They see little risk of escalation, into a long-term quagmire, like the wars of Afghanistan and Iraq. Joshua Wilson, professor of political sciences at the University of Denver, said that this was too recent to expect a MAGA-base backlash. There are a lot of questions about the future, so this could be another test for Trump's ability frame events and control base. Trump's approval rating has been in decline. A /Ipsos survey last month showed that only 39% of U.S. adult citizens approved of his performance. This was primarily due to?disappointment with his handling of the economic situation. Matthew Wilson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, says that historically, military action has only given presidents a temporary political boost. This means that the risk is to the Republicans and Trump's disadvantage heading into the November midterm elections, where control of Congress will be at stake. Wilson stated, "If the election goes well, I expect that it will be forgotten by the midterms." "If it doesn't go well, it will become an albatross." The last time that the United States intervened to remove a ruler in a Latin American nation was during the invasion of Panama in 1989, which ousted the dictator Manuel Noriega. This was the first of two relatively quick and successful military operations under U.S. president George H.W. Bush orchestrated the Gulf War in 1991, but he lost his 1992 re-election campaign to Bill Clinton mainly due to?a weak economy. GREENE AND OWENS CRITICIZE ATTACK Democrats criticized Trump's actions against Venezuela, saying they were ill-advised. They also argued that the actions could be illegal because they were taken without Congress' approval. Chuck Schumer, the party leader in Senate, warned that Trump could drag?the U.S. into "another costly foreign war." Marjorie Taylor Greene has joined the Democrats, who have long been Trump supporters but had a public fallout with him this year. On Sunday's "Meet the Press", the Republican said that Maduro was arrested as a betrayal to Trump's promise during the presidential campaign of 2024 to avoid foreign conflicts. She said, "This is Washington's playbook we are so tired of and that doesn't help the American people." Candace Owens, a podcaster who is known for her conspiracy theories and right-wing views, also criticized Maduro's arrest. She wrote on X, that the CIA staged "another violent takeover of a nation at the behest a globalist psychopaths." Most of Trump's supporters, and even some of his critics, either supported the attack or refused to comment. Steve Bannon, former Trump aide, and prominent voice of the Make America Great Again Movement, described the raid on his podcast as "bold" and "brilliant", embodying the tone of hawkishness prevalent among the president's supporters. Officials in the Trump administration have gone to great lengths to describe Saturday's operation against Maduro as an action of law enforcement. Maduro has been indicted for drug-related offenses and will be appearing in court on Monday in New York. MAGA influencers have said that they support Trump's stated aim of asserting U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere. Laura?Loomer, a right-wing activist, argued in a social media post that the United States should exploit Venezuela's vast reserves of oil rather than allow adversaries like Iran, China and Russia to profit from them and finance attacks against the West. Loomer, who lost to Trump in the Republican primary of 2024, wrote: "We will exercise our power and take 'the oil and financial starve the axis evil" on X. He was referring to Representative Thomas Massie. Massie is one of the only Republicans who questioned the legal basis of the strikes against Venezuela. Nikki Haley who lost the Republican primary to Trump 2024 called Maduro a 'brutal socialist dictator' in a post on X. She also said that the Venezuelans "deserved freedom". Rand Paul, the Republican senator and a staunch opponent of foreign military interventions, didn't criticize Trump in a post on social media, but he did warn that "time will show if regime change is achieved in Venezuela without significant human or monetary cost." Matt McManus is a professor of political science at Spelman College. He said that it was incorrect to portray the MAGA movement in a purely isolationist light, as it has always been confident about projecting its power. He cited Trump supporters' support for the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites in June, and Trump's threats against other nations during his first term. McManus stated that "MAGAdom was never defined by an obsession with ideological consistency." It takes its cues a lot from the leaders... And right now, Trump's signalling is very strong that Venezuelan interference is good for America. McManus, along with other experts, agreed that a prolonged military intervention in Venezuela could test Trump's grip on his party and MAGA movement. This is especially true if U.S. soldiers are deployed. The president hasn't ruled this possibility out. Dante Scala is a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. He said, "Venezuela will be the test to see if MAGA is what Donald Trump claims it is." Nathan Layne reported from Wilton, Connecticut. Sergio Non edited the story.
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Goldman: US sanctions policy will determine Venezuela's oil output outlook
Goldman Sachs analysts said that the future of Venezuela's oil output will be determined by how?U.S. Goldman Sachs analysts have said that sanctions policies will evolve after U.S. president Donald Trump removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Goldman Sachs analysts said that sanctions policy will evolve after U.S. President Donald Trump?deposed Venezuelan?President Nicolas Maduro. In a note published on January 4, Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Daan?Sachs, said that they see "ambiguous but modest risks" to the oil price in the short term from Venezuela depending on U.S. Sanctions policy. Goldman's forecasts for 2026 oil prices remained the same - with Brent's average price at $56 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $52 per barrel. Venezuela's oil production in 2026 is expected to remain flat at 900,000. Analysts said that Venezuelan production could rise over the long-term, adding downside risks to oil price forecasts for 2027 and beyond. Venezuela produced around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) at its peak in mid-2000s. It holds about a quarter of the world's proven oil reserves. Analysts say that any recovery in production will be gradual and would require significant investment. We estimate a $4/bbl drop in oil prices by 2030 if Venezuelan crude production increases to 2mb/d. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Lincoln Feast.
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Venezuela's oil, mining and mining sector: huge potential but weak infrastructure
Here are some key facts about Venezuela's oil and mining sector. According to U.S. president Donald Trump, the U.S. captured President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. RESERVES Official data show that Venezuela may have the largest oil reserves in the world, but its crude production is only a fraction of what it could be due to years of mismanagement, a lack of investment, and sanctions. According to the London-based Energy Institute, Venezuela holds about 17% of the global reserves, or 303 billion barils, ahead of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries leader Saudi Arabia. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Venezuela's oil reserves consist mainly of heavy crude in the Orinoco Region of central Venezuela. This makes its crude costly to produce but relatively simple to process. Maduro and Delcy Rodrguez, the acting president of Venezuela at the time, announced in?2019 a five-year plan to boost mineral extraction, as an alternative for oil production. Venezuelan government published data in the year before that included key terms used by mining industry, such as reserve and resource, interchangeably. It is difficult to determine if Caracas was aware of its full mining potential. A reserve is a volume estimate for a mineral which can be economically produced. The volume of a particular mineral in a region is called a resource, regardless of whether it can be economically extracted. The 2018 report was published by Venezuela's Mining Ministry website as a "minerals catalogue" for investors. It estimated that coal reserves were approximately 3 billion metric tonnes and nickel reserves at 407,885 tons. The same report also estimated gold reserves of 644 metric tonnes, iron ore resources of 14.68 billion tons (although much of this is speculative), and a resource of bauxite of 321.5 millions metric ton. Venezuela published in 2021 a map of its mineral reserves, based on 2009 data. The map listed antimony, copper and nickel reserves, as well as coltan, magnesium, zinc, titanium, tungsten, and molybdenum. However, it did not include volumes. Rare earths are a group of 17 minor metals used in magnets to turn energy into motion. Rare earths is a subset critical minerals. Venezuela, along with Iran, Iraq Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, was a founding member in OPEC. The country's struggle with electricity has repeatedly hindered mining and oil operations. In the 1970s, the country produced as much as 3.5 millions barrels of crude oil per day. This represented at that time over 7% global oil production. In the 2010s, production fell below 2,000,000 bpd and reached an average of 1.1 million barrels per day last year. This represents just 1% global oil output. This is roughly the same as the production of the U.S. State of North Dakota. If the developments lead to a real regime change in the end, it could result in even more oil being available on market. It will take some time before production recovers fully, said Arne L. Rasmussen of Global Risk Management. Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, says that if the regime changes succeed, Venezuelan exports will grow, as sanctions are lifted, and foreign investments return. Jorge Leon, Rystad's head of geopolitical analyses, said that Libya and Iraq are clear examples. Trump said to Fox News Saturday that the United States will be heavily involved in Venezuela's petroleum sector. It is unclear what the operational status of mines linked to Maduro’s 5-year plan. Maduro's National Council for Productive Economy said last month that the national production of iron ore, gold and coal increased in the first quarter of 2025. However, it did not provide any figures. Venezuela nationalized its gold industry in 2011. CVG, a maker of iron and steel, is also under the control of the government. Last October, it was reported that Venezuela had restarted its coal production. It aimed to export over 10 million metric tonnes of the mineral by 2025. The government has not yet confirmed if it met its target. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Venezuela produced 100,000 tons of coal in 2019 from 731 million tons of reserves. In the last decade, the production of many minerals has declined, including nickel and bauxite. Joint Ventures Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. was created in 1970, when Venezuela nationalised the oil industry. Venezuela took steps in the 1990s to open up the oil sector to foreign investors. Venezuela required that all oil projects be owned by PDVSA after Hugo Chavez was elected in 1999. Exxon-Conoco left Venezuela in the 2000s, and their assets were confiscated. PDVSA has set up joint ventures with Chevron and other companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, ENI, Total, and Rosneft, in order to boost production. Maduro said in 2023 that he would license mines in an area where Guyana and Venezuela are in dispute over ownership. Maduro’s government has supported artisanal mining of gold in the Venezuelan Amazon since at least 2016. EXPORTS AND REFINING Since the introduction of the sanctions, China is now the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela owes China about $10 billion after China became its largest lender during the late president Hugo Chavez. Venezuela repays loans with crude oil transported by three very large crude carriers that were previously owned jointly by Venezuela and China. In December, two of these supertankers approached Venezuela when Trump announced the blockade on all tankers entering and leaving the country. According to PDVSA documents, and shipping data, the vessels are waiting for instructions as Venezuelan exports were mostly stopped. Trump said to Fox News Saturday that China will get the oil, without providing any further details. Russia has also lent Venezuela billions of dollar, but the exact amount remains unclear. PDVSA owns significant refinery capacity outside of the country. This includes CITGO, which is located in the United States. However, creditors have been fighting to take control through lengthy legal cases before U.S. court. Reporting by Marianna Paraga, Arathy Sommesekhar Dmitry Zhdannikov Ernest Scheyder Daina Beth Soolo; Editing by Jason Neely Stephen Coates
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What is the name of Delcy Rodriquez, the acting President of Venezuela?
Delcy Rodriguez is a Venezuelan politician who wields an iron fist. She is a proponent of economic orthodoxy, has worked to establish relationships with the private sector, and is well-known for her taste in luxury. In her more than 10 years in public life, Rodriguez, 56, has accumulated significant influence. Maduro called her "a tigress" because of her staunch support of his socialist regime, which presided over an economic crisis and exodus of 8 million migrants. She was vice president from 2018 onwards, having served simultaneously as finance minister then oil minister. She was previously a communications minister, a foreign?minister, and the head?of a progovernment legislature. She is close to her brother Jorge Rodriguez who is the head of the National Assembly. The Rodriguez siblings are children of leftist guerrilla Jorge?Antonio Rodriguez. He founded the Revolutionary Socialist League Party in 1976 and was arrested for his involvement in the kidnapping an American businessman. His family claims that he died from torture in police custody. Maduro has hailed him as a Venezuelan hero. Delcy is a labor lawyer who spent nine years in France and England studying postgraduate law. She competes in table-tennis competitions with brother. They often post their pictures on social media. She is often seen wearing designer clothing in public. After years of hyperinflation, she implemented orthodox policy, including cutting public expenditure, limiting credit, and a dollar-bolivar fixed rate. This helped to lower triple-digit inflation. Her role has brought her into close contact with foreign oil companies such as Chevron. Rodriguez is often referred to as "workaholic" by leaders in the industry. She attends private sector events that other public officials have neglected for years. She is Venezuelan official that travels the most to China, Russia and Turkey - allies of Venezuela. Diane Craft edited the report by Diane Craft.
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Barclays data indicates that in 2025, activists will run a record number of campaigns.
According to Barclays, activist investors who want companies to improve their performance launched a record-breaking number of campaigns in 2025. Market volatility, favorable financing terms, and increased deal activity created the ideal environment for lobbying for change. Blue-chip activists including Elliott Investment Management and a large number of newcomers launched attacks in 2025 on global companies, urging them to improve operations, replace board members, or even sell themselves. Activists attacked well-known brands like athleisure brand Lululemon Athletica and ride-hailing service Lyft. PepsiCo, the maker of soda and snacks, and Yeti, a cooler and drinkware manufacturer, were also targeted. The data revealed that the number of attacks in 2018 was up nearly 5% over 2024. It also surpassed the previous record set in 2018. Jim Rossman is the global head of shareholder advice at Barclays. He said, "We went from a period of maximum uncertainty to a rebound in M&A and private equity markets in the second half." It was an excellent time to use the activists' toolkit. Barclays data show that 141 campaigns were conducted in the United States. This represents a 23% increase from the previous campaign. The data also showed that Asian companies attracted the attention of activists, with a record number of 56 campaigns in Japan. Barclays reported that this accounted for half of all global activity outside the United States. Barclays data revealed that Elliott was the most active activist investor. It launched 18 campaigns in 2012, and spent nearly $20 billion of capital. The hedge fund has taken on Lululemon in the fourth quarter, urging management to consider hiring a former Ralph Lauren executive for the position of CEO. It also took on Barrick Mining by urging it to consider breaking up the company. Elliott has won 17 board positions in the past year. This includes two seats at Phillips 66 where investors voted for candidates that Elliott had proposed. Activist investors, formerly called corporate raiders and derided, have gained a new level of acceptance among corporate management. Their returns are improving, and they're working with boards to boost the share price of a company. Barclays' data also showed that the patience of corporate activists with chief executives could quickly run out. In the year following an activist campaign, 32 CEOs quit in a record number. In 2024, there will be 27 CEOs who resign, up from the 24 that left in 2023 due to activist pressure. Rossman, Barclays' Rossman, said: "If executives do not perform well, they will be fired." (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis in New York, Svea Herbst Bayliss)
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Trump uses intimidation to get Venezuelan leaders in line
Sources familiar with the situation say that after removing Nicolas Maduro as president, the Trump administration hopes to intimidate Venezuela's inner circle to follow the U.S. position by threatening further military action which could place them at risk of suffering a similar fate. Three people who were briefed about the U.S.'s strategy said that President Donald Trump’s advisers believe they might also be able work behind the scenes to help Interim?President Delcy Rodrguez, who is seen by many as a technocrat, who could be willing to assist the U.S. in a political transition, and on key?oil related issues. Trump's willingness to extend his military reach is one of the many complicating factors in this vague plan. It also raises questions about Trump's ability to bend Venezuelan post-Maduro government to his will. According to a source, the sweeteners that Maduro could offer his aides are offers of amnesty and safe exile. These were the types of offers Maduro turned down in his last days before he was captured by U.S. Special Forces on Saturday. He is currently being held in a New York jail awaiting his Monday court date on drug charges. Two powerful members of Maduro’s inner circle, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who have both received multi-million dollar U.S. bountys on their heads, are still potential spoilers for any agreement with the U.S. The White House refused to answer 'questions, instead referring to Marco Rubio's comments that were broadcasted on Sunday. Trump's efforts could also be undermined if Democrats are able to convince enough Republicans, including the president himself, to restrict funding for any future military operations in Venezuela. This would send a signal to Venezuela that Trump could be weaken. The U.S. President's pledge on Saturday to "run", post-Maduro Venezuela, appears to be an aspiration for outside control - at least heavy influence?over the OPEC country?without deploying U.S. land forces that would have little support in their home. Officials in the United States believe that they can still get Venezuelan cooperation by maintaining a massive buildup of military forces off its coast, and by threatening further airstrikes, targeting Maduro's loyalists, and as a final resort, sending a contingent U.S. soldiers. The source said, "This sword is hanging over Trump's head." According to a source with knowledge of the situation, Venezuela's leaders may feel particularly vulnerable due to the damage caused by U.S. strikes on Venezuela's air defence?systems. Rubio emphasized on Sunday TV news programs that another major source of leverage is the "quarantine" placed on Venezuelan oil exports, which are the main financial lifeline for the government. Senator Tom Cotton, Republican Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee in Arkansas, made it clear that the Venezuelan government was under threat. He told CNN: "If they do not want to follow Maduro's steps, they must start meeting our requirements." VENEZUELAN Oficials Defiant Top Venezuelan officials who called the capture Maduro's and his wife Cilia's Cilia Flores as a kidnapping, and accused the U.S. trying to steal Venezuela's vast oil reserve, insist that they will remain united. Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela's oil minister, has been appointed interim leader by Venezuela's highest court. She has stated that Maduro remains the president. She has been a member of Maduro's inner-circle for a long time, and has a deep understanding of the oil industry, which is the main source of income in the country. However, she has publicly refuted Trump's claims that she was willing to work with America. Trump warned in an interview published by The Atlantic on Sunday that Rodriguez could pay a higher price than Maduro if she "does not do what is right." Rubio, ignoring Rodriguez' defiant words, told CBS that "we're going?to make an assessment based on what they do and not what they publicly say." Trump did not mention restoring democracy in Venezuela during his press conference held on Saturday. He also disappointed Venezuela's opposition by dismissing the idea of working together with Maria Corina Machado - widely regarded as Maduro’s most credible rival and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. Instead, he focused on the prospects for exploiting Venezuela’s energy resources. Trump's advisers seem to believe that co-opting Venezuelan's current government is the best way to stabilise the country, create a pathway for U.S. investment in oil and move towards some sort of political transition away from the Maduro regime. Since the U.S. invaded Panama in 1977 to remove military leader Manuel Noriega on allegations that he ran a "drug-running" operation, it has not intervened so directly in Latin America. The United States also made similar accusations against Maduro. They accused him of running a 'narco state' and rigging 2024 elections, which he denied. Trump did not provide a clear explanation of how the U.S. will fulfill its vow to oversee Venezuela. Critics condemned this as neocolonialism, and it could alienate some supporters who are opposed to foreign interventions. Two U.S. officials say that Trump's comments caught the Western Hemisphere Office of the U.S. State Department by surprise. No preparations had been made to send staff to Caracas. Rubio, along with Secretary Pete Hegseth, will assume this job. On Sunday, Rubio provided little clarity and appeared to move away from the idea that he would actually take day-today control of a country of almost 30 million people. He told NBC's Meet the Press: "It's the running policy." "We want Venezuela moving in a particular direction because we believe it is good for Venezuelans and it's also in our national interests." (Reporting and writing by Matt Spetalnick and Humeyra Pauk; Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Landay, Washington; Editing and Don Durfee, Diane Craft and Don Durfee)
Maduro has left but his closest allies are still in power
Donald Trump praised the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as "stunning and powerful". But it is unclear who will be running this oil-rich nation.
Trump claimed on Saturday that Delcy Rodrguez, a member of a powerful cabal that controls the government of Venezuela, was sworn in following Maduro's detention. He also said that she had spoken to U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio. This led to speculations that she might take over.
In Venezuela, Rodriguez is deemed the 'acting President' in Maduro’s absence. The country's highest court has ordered that she assume this role on Saturday evening.
Rodriguez, flanked on television by her brother, the president of the National Assembly Jorge Rodriguez, the Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and the Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, said shortly after Trump made his remarks that Maduro was Venezuela's sole leader. The group that shares power with Maduro appears to be staying together for the time being.
Trump said that he would not work with Maria Corina Machado - the opposition leader and Nobel Prize-winning Maria Corina Machado - who is widely regarded as Maduro’s most credible rival if she did not have any support in the country.
International observers claim that despite Maduro’s government's claims of victory, Machado’s stand-in candidate has won in a landslide.
CIVILIAN-MILITARY POWER BALANCE
Since more than a century, the real power in Venezuela is held by a few senior officials. Analysts and government officials claim that the system is based on a vast network of loyalists who are backed by security organs.
In the inner circle there is a balance between civilians and military. Each member has his or her own patronage network and interests. Currently, Rodriguez and her brother are the civil side. Padrino, Cabello and other military representatives represent the civilian side.
According to interviews conducted with former and current U.S. government officials, Venezuelan military analysts, U.S. military experts, and security consultants for Venezuela's opposition, this power structure makes it more difficult to dismantle Venezuela's present government than to remove Maduro.
"You can remove any number of pieces from the Venezuelan government, but you would need multiple actors working at different levels in order to make a difference," said an ex-U.S. official who was involved in criminal investigations.
Cabello is a big question mark, as he exerts influence on the military and civilian counterintelligence agencies of the country, who conduct extensive domestic espionage.
Jose Garcia, Venezuelan military strategist, said that the focus was now on Diosdado Cabello. Because he is the most violent, ideological and unpredictable element in the Venezuelan regime. Both SEBIN (the civilian agency) and DGCIM (the military intelligence service) were found guilty of crimes against humanity by the United Nations as part a plan to suppress dissent. In interviews conducted before Maduro was captured, 11 former detainees -- including some security personnel who had been there themselves -- described the electric shocks and simulated drownings they experienced at DGCIM's black sites.
A former DGCIM officer who was arrested in 2020 and charged with treason for having contact military dissidents said, "They want to make you feel like a cockroach trapped in a cage full of elephants. They want you feeling smaller." Cabello appeared on TV in recent weeks, when the United States was mounting its largest military buildup in Latin America for decades. He ordered the DGCIM "to go and get the terrorists," and warned "whoever strays will be known."
In a Saturday appearance on state television, he repeated his rhetoric while wearing a flak-jacket and helmet, and surrounded with heavily armed "guards".
Cabello is also closely linked to pro-government militias. This includes groups of motorcycle-riding, armed civilians called colectivos.
GENERALS CONTROL KEY AREAS
Cabello, former military officer, and major player in socialist party, has a significant influence on a "meaningful" fraction of Venezuela's armed forces. This is despite the fact that Venezuela's military was formally led by Defense Minister Padrino more than 10 years ago. Venezuela has 2,000 generals, admirals and other military officers. This is more than twice the number of the United States. Senior officers and retired officers are in charge of food distribution, raw materials, and the PDVSA state oil company, while dozens more generals serve on private firm boards.
Defectors, current and former U.S. Investigators, and others say that military officials benefit from illicit trade beyond contracts.
According to documents shared by an opposition security advisor with the U.S. Military and seen by, commanders close Cabello and Padrino have been assigned to key brigades near Venezuela's border and industrial hubs.
While strategically important, the brigades are also located?on major smuggling route.
A lawyer who represented a senior Venezuelan leader said that "there are between 20 and 50 officers who must leave the Venezuelan army, possibly even more," to remove this regime.
Some may be thinking about jumping ship. The lawyer stated that around a dozen ex-officials and current generals reached out to the U.S. after Maduro was captured, hoping to make a deal by offering intelligence for safe passage and immunity.
The lawyer stated that Cabello's close friends said he wasn't interested in a deal at the moment.
(source: Reuters)