Latest News

Canada's inflation rate increases in September due to a smaller drop in gas prices

Canada's inflation rate increases in September due to a smaller drop in gas prices

Data released on Tuesday showed that Canada's inflation rate rose to 2.4% annually in September. This was mainly due to a lower decline in gasoline prices compared to the previous month, and an increase in food prices.

The Bank of Canada will meet later this month to make its next monetary decision. Economists will closely monitor the report to determine when it might be time for another rate cut. Money markets have put a probability of 86% on a rate cut of 25 basis points on October 29. This would reduce the benchmark rate to 2.25%.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.12%, to 1.4018 US cents. The analysts polled predicted that the annual inflation rate would increase to 2.3% from 1.9% in august. StatsCan reported that the CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month in September after a decline of 0.1% in August. The Canadian government removed the carbon tax on gasoline that was keeping prices high all last year. The decline in August was greater than September, mainly because of a large drop in gasoline prices that occurred in September 2024.

After a 2.4% increase in August, the CPI excluding gasoline rose by 2.6% in September.

To gauge the price trend, economists have used the BoC's preferred measures of inflation that exclude the effect of tax measures. The CPI-median or the middle component of the CPI Basket, one of the BoC's preferred core measures of inflation that excludes the impact of tax measures, was 3.2% in September. This is unchanged from last month's upwardly revised annual number.

StatsCan reported that the CPI-trim measure, which excludes extreme price changes, increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in September.

Last month, the CPI basket had a share above 3% and below 1%. After a 3.4% rise in August, food prices rose 3.8% last month. This increase was due to an increase of 4% in food purchases from stores compared to a 3.5% rise in August.

Statisticians said that the increase in grocery prices in September was the biggest year-over-year gain since April 2024. Rents contributed to the CPI's increase year-over-year, with a jump of 4.8% in September. This move brought shelter inflation, which is the largest component of the CPI, down to 2.6%. Promit Mukherjee, Dale Smith, and Paul Simao edited the report.

(source: Reuters)