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US Treasury yields and dollar fall as Trump attacks the Fed; US stocks rise

The dollar and U.S. Treasury rates eased on the day after President Donald Trump fired a central bank Governor, raising concerns over the independence of the bank. Wall Street stocks closed higher on the day before the results from Nvidia due on Wednesday. Trump announced on Monday that he would be firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of improper mortgage borrowing. Cook claimed that Trump did not have the authority to fire Cook and that she would refuse to resign. Her term will end in 2038. Trump's unprecedented move could result in a long-running legal battle, which risks setting new norms regarding the independence of the central bank and presidents' involvement in monetary policies. Cook's departure from the Fed may accelerate Trump's attempts to reshape Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates policy.

Trump has pushed the Fed to reduce rates in order to boost growth and lower borrowing costs. The expectation of a Fed that was more dovish helped lower shorter-dated rates, and the yield curve widened as long-dated yields showed a modest decline. Participants said that long-dated rates were more likely to be affected by political pressure on the Fed. A subsequent reduction in interest rates would increase concerns about inflation. Foreign demand may also be affected due to fears of the Fed's reliability. The traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut to the interest rate for the Fed policy meeting of September, despite the fact that inflation is still a concern. They have been encouraged by the dovish signals coming from Fed chair Jerome Powell and data showing a weak labor market. "On Friday we had a major trigger, which was the green light by the Fed to start cutting rates. Markets have been waiting for this for some time. Adam Sarhan is the chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments, a New York-based investment firm. In the wake of Cook's news, the dollar dropped against other major currencies. "President Trump has launched a potentially ineffective and risky battle against the Fed. Brian Jacobsen wrote that it would take seven FOMC members to vote in favor of Trump, and not two or four.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire Powell, and this month, he fired an official at the Labor Department after accusing her without proof of manipulating job data which had disappointed him. Trump is backing away from his threat to fire Powell as his term expires in May.

INFLATION RELEASE A global index of stocks was little altered, but U.S. stock prices ended up higher. Investors await Nvidia's report on the readings of personal consumption prices in the U.S. on Friday and Wednesday. This is considered to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

The market is focused on the inflation rate, the labor force, consumer spending, and corporate earnings. Oliver Pursche is senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, a firm in Westport, Connecticut. He said that despite the pun, this is what matters most.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 135.60 points or 0.30% to 45,418.07. The S&P 500 gained 26.62 points or 0.41% to 6,465.94. And the Nasdaq Composite increased by 94.98 or 0.44% to 21,544.27.

MSCI's global stock index fell by 0.24 points or 0.03% to 952.72. Sarhan stated that Nvidia’s report "will be a major indicator to see how risk-averse investors are for AI (artificial Intelligence) stocks, but also the market." European shares fell, with losses led by France where political uncertainties have increased. France's CAC-40 fell by more than 1%, as it became increasingly likely that the country's minor government would be overthrown next month.

The pan-European STOXX 600 ended 0.83% down. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) fell by 0.27%, falling to 98.21. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.03%, reaching $1.1646. The dollar fell 0.05% against the Japanese yen to 147.33. The yield on the 2-year US2YT=RR note moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates. The yield was down 4.9 basis point on the day to 3.681%. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes US10YT=RR dropped 1.7 basis points, to 4.258%.

Oil prices

Gold rose 2% while the dollar fell. Brent crude fell $1.58 or 2.3% to $67.22 per barrel, just a day after reaching its highest price in early August. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of crude oil from Texas, lost $1.55 or 2.4% to $63.25. Gold spot rose 0.8%, to $3393.30 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)