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US inflation data boosts global equity markets; dollar falls

On Tuesday, the dollar dropped and major U.S. indexes rose after news that U.S. Consumer inflation increased less than expected in May when President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs which has caused havoc on international markets.

European shares rose for the fourth session in a row, while global stocks also gained.

Crude oil prices increased, thanks to a temporary reduction in U.S. - China tariffs.

The U.S. announced on Monday that it would suspend its trade war with China for 90 days. They will reduce reciprocal duties, and remove other measures as they negotiate a permanent agreement.

The agreement has reignited the appetite of investors for stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Tuesday's inflation numbers have also helped fuel this move.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its consumer price index increased by 0.2% in April. This brings the annual growth down to 2.3%, from 2.4%.

Economists polled had predicted a rise of 0.3% per month and 2.4% annually.

Bill Adams, chief economics officer at Comerica Bank, Dallas, wrote in a letter that the report was a good one. In 2025, inflation should be manageable by most consumers and business.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones advanced due to softer than expected inflation figures and a easing in U.S. China trade tensions. The S&P500 rose 42.36, or 0.72 percent, to 5,886.55 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 301.74, or 1.61 percent, to 19,010.09.

Under pressure from UnitedHealth, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 269.67 points or 0.64% to 42140.43. The company had suspended its annual forecast after its CEO resigned and UnitedHealth had suspended its annual projection.

Dollar retreated from its sharp gains of the previous session due to the inflation data. Last seen down by 0.79% versus a basket.

The euro increased by 0.94% to $1.1191.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital, a New York-based firm.

The European stock market ended the day slightly higher with a 0.1% gain, their highest level since March.

Emerging Market Stocks fell by 5.03 points or 0.43% to 1,156.82.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan closed at 603.95, while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.43%, to 38183.26.

After the Geneva talks, the U.S. announced it would cut tariffs for Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China announced it would reduce duties on U.S. imported goods to 10%, from 125%.

The change in U.S. China trade relations has caused traders to reduce expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions, believing that policymakers will have more flexibility to lower rates as inflation risks decrease.

The traders are now pricing in a 56 basis point reduction this year. This is down from the forecasts of over 100 basis points made in April when concerns about Trump's tariffs reached their highest level.

Cardillo stated that "the Fed is on the right track and until there are any real changes in terms of ending the trade war by June, a rate cut in June remains in doubt."

Economists and fund managers have stated that the 90-day break is welcomed, but it hasn't changed the larger picture.

Christopher Hodge is the chief U.S. economics at Natixis.

The ratings agency Fitch estimates that the U.S. tariff rate has dropped to 13.1% from 22.8% before the agreement, but is still above the 2.3% at the end 2024.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year note rose by 1.6 basis to 4.473%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. note, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose by 0.2 basis to 4.004%.

Spot gold increased 0.61%, to $3,253.51 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.6% higher, at $3,247.80.

Brent crude futures settled on $66.63 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.57%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude finished at $63.67 up $1.72, or 2.78%.

(source: Reuters)