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Euro buoyed after Ukraine ceasefire proposal; tariffs squeeze stock
The euro rose to near 5-month highs Wednesday, as Ukraine was ready to accept a ceasefire lasting a full month. Meanwhile, stocks were thrown into turmoil by the back and forth of U.S. tariffs plans after levies against steel and aluminum imports began. European equity futures jumped by 1.1%, and FTSE Futures rose by 0.5% after news that the U.S. will restore military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine following Kyiv's acceptance of a U.S. proposed ceasefire. In an interview published Wednesday, Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, said that Moscow would avoid compromises which could jeopardize the lives of people, Russian agencies reported. In Asia, the euro was unchanged at $1.0913 and hit its highest level since October at $1.0947 on Tuesday. The Russian rouble reached a seven-month peak on Tuesday. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum of 25% went into effect on Wednesday. They had a relatively muted impact on share prices in Asian steel mills, and they drew countertariffs from Europe. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan was flat, but fragile. Australia's benchmark closed down 9.6% from February's record high. Hong Kong, China and Taiwan markets were largely steady. South Korea and Taiwan rebounded. Japan's Nikkei remained stable after falling to a six-month low the day before. Wall Street's S&P 500 flirted with a 10% drop from the record-breaking closing high of February, but ended a volatile session around 0.8% lower. After Ontario halted plans to impose a surcharge for exported electricity, President Donald Trump threatened and then backtracked from a 50% increase in steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada. Dollar has fallen, Treasuries are up and stocks have been selling at their highest level in months. Traders worry that tariffs and policy uncertainties will harm U.S. economic growth. Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan's chief global economist, told reporters in Singapore that the U.S. economic outlook was heightened. Although we haven't yet changed our model forecast, the risk of a recession is now about 40%. "If the U.S. enters a recession, we will have a more complex story because you'll need to understand that the financial spillovers from the U.S. to the rest the world are often very large." Investors worried about the economy punished retailers with disappointing financial results. Dick's Sporting Goods shares plunged 5.7% after a gloomy outlook, and Kohl's Corp's shares fell 24% following a decline in sales. Travel stocks were also hit after Delta Air Lines slashed its profit forecast by half, and rivals United Airlines and American Airlines warned about deteriorating results and falling government bookings. The U.S. Inflation data for February will be released later in the day, but it's likely too early to see any impact of tariffs. The central bank meeting of Canada will be closely monitored to find out what the monetary policymakers at the forefront of Trump's Trade War are thinking. The market has priced in a seventh consecutive rate reduction, which was only a slight possibility two weeks ago. Overnight, the Canadian dollar fell to a low of C$1.445 before recovering. U.S. stock futures moved up 0.2%. The yen slipped from its five-month high, trading at around 148 dollars. The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to risk, was held at just under 63 U.S. Cents. Brent crude futures traded just below $70 per barrel. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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ECB will tackle fundamental questions regarding strategy assessment
The European Central Bank has launched a new strategy assessment that will cover some major questions about its workings - such as whether massive bond purchases remain an effective policy tool or what role they should play in fighting climate change. The following are likely to be reviewed before the final report is due in mid-year, which could lead to incremental changes in policy. BOND BUYS In the decade prior to the pandemic, quantitative easing or bond purchases were a major part of ECB's policy. However, some policymakers have openly questioned its benefits. The ECB purchased trillions of euro worth of debt to boost inflation when prices were too low. However, 4 trillion euro of these assets remain on the books years after the stimulus program ended because it takes time to unwind. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's board, said that asset prices would remain distorted as bond holdings could only be unwound gradually. It means that starting QE is harder than it was in the past. ECB officials are being urged to recognize that while quick purchases of bonds can be effective during pandemics, the costs of long-term purchases outweigh the benefits. While profits may not be a core business, the massive QE has also led to record losses for the ECB, denying governments dividend income. Since the ECB has made it clear that it will intervene on markets if policy transmittal is impaired, some policymakers also call for a more clear distinction between instruments to combat inflation and those aimed a market stability. SPECIALLY FORCEFUL MEASURES The review will not question the ECB’s primary goal to target inflation at 2%, but it could raise whether falling short of this threshold in future is so severe that it would require extraordinary measures. The ECB strategy calls for "especially strong" action when the inflation rate is too low. This suggests that undershooting may be a greater problem than overshooting. Evidence suggests that prices are rigid on their way down and only large shocks can lead to deflation. Even in the decade of ultra-low inflation before the pandemic began, households and firms continued to expect modest price increases. Some argue that if the ECB really believes its 2% inflation goal is symmetrical, there shouldn't be a distinction made between undershooting and overshooting. A particularly forceful approach, which usually involves a large number of bond purchases, can also cause financial distortions. CLIMATE The ECB has committed to a "ambitious climate action plan" by 2021. The results have been modest. The government shifted corporate reinvestments to firms that had better climate performance, but these reinvestments are long gone. The bank has promised to adjust its remaining portfolio of corporate bonds based on climate concerns, but it faces a deeper existential question about what role it should have in climate policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve left the Network for Greening the Financial System recently because its work went beyond the Fed's original mandate. ECB head Christine Lagarde defended NGFS, but others, such as Belgian central banker Pierre Wunsch, called on the ECB limit its role in climate policy to avoid interference with policymaking. DIRECTION FORWARD In its last review, in 2021, the ECB included forward guidance or commitments regarding future policy actions as a tool in its toolbox. This guidance, however slowed the bank's reaction to the rapid increase in inflation in 2020, as it had already committed to a looser policy. Since then, policymakers have argued that the ECB shouldn't use forward guidance unless interest rates are at their lowest effective levels. (Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
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South Korean steelmakers are looking to U.S.-made products with higher value as Trump tariffs begin.
As major producers around the world prepare for Wednesday's increased tariffs, two major South Korean steelmakers have been evaluating their options to invest in new facilities. They said that the options included investing in operations in the U.S. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to increase protection for American producers of steel and aluminum restores global tariffs that are effective at 25% on all metal imports. It also extends these duties to hundreds downstream products, such as nuts and bolts, bulldozers blades and cans. Canada, the largest foreign supplier of aluminium and steel to the U.S.A., Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea are the countries most affected. All of these countries have received some form of exemption or quota. A spokesperson for South Korean steelmaker POSCO said, "We will focus on products with high value-added and improve our technological capabilities in order to produce existing products at a more economical price." The spokesperson stated that "we are also reviewing investment proposals for upstream processes of steel in the U.S. and India but there has not been a final decision made yet." A spokesperson for local rival Hyundai Steel said that the company is considering building a new steel plant in the Southeastern region of the U.S., but no decision has been made. The increased tariffs by the U.S. would negatively impact the Korean steel industry. South Korea had previously enjoyed a duty-free quota on steel under an agreement reached in 2018, during Trump's inaugural term as president. The trade ministry announced on Wednesday that the government would prepare measures to support domestic firms in their expansion overseas and investment into new markets. The increased tariffs were also hoped for by firms that had a major presence in the U.S. or less exposure. A spokesperson for Australia's BlueScope, a steelmaker listed on the Australian stock exchange, said that the company expected to see a positive impact as the U.S. Tariffs came into effect. The company exports only 300,000 tonnes per year from its Delta, Ohio plant, despite producing more than 3 million tonnes of steel annually. The spokesperson said that the company is disappointed that Australia has not been granted an exemption. Anthony Albanese, Australia's prime minister, said that his country would not impose reciprocal duties on the U.S. because of the potential impact on inflation. He also stated that he will continue to lobby for a respite from the U.S. government. BlueScope's spokesperson stated that the company works closely with "the Australian diplomatic and trade staff in Canberra, Washington DC and a variety of senior representatives within Congress to ensure that the BlueScope Investment proposition is understood." The new tariffs could benefit Vietnamese companies as they were hit with levies of 25% in 2018. A steel trader in Hanoi said: "I believe Vietnam steel could benefit from this tariff." He declined to give his name because he wasn't authorised to talk to the media.
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Kings pull away from Islanders with penalty kill
Philip Danault scored two goals in five minutes to seal the victory for the Los Angeles Kings. They won 4-1 over the New York Islanders thanks to their strong penalty kill. Vladislav Gavrikov scored in the first period and Drew Doughty scored a shorthanded empty-netter in the third, for the Kings. They were 8-for-8 in penalty killing. Darcy Kuemper saved 33 shots for the Kings, and the Kings benefited from two potential Islanders power-play goals that were overturned by New York due to goalie interferance. The Kings won their third straight game to close the gap on the Edmonton Oilers, who are currently second in the Pacific Division. Anders Lee scored for the Islanders in the second period. They lost their second game in a row and ended a three-game West Coast trip with 0-2-0. New York is still five points behind Columbus Blue Jackets for the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. Ilya Sorokin made 28 saves. Gavrikov gave the Kings an early lead with a sizzling shot fired under Sorokin’s glove arm at 4:27 in the first. Lee tied the score 8:37 in the second when his shot from a slot went past Kuemper's sticks. Danault's goal came just 37 seconds after the game had been tied. His teammate Warren Foegele had forced Islanders defenseman Ryan Pulock to make a mistake deep in New York. Duclair's potential game-tying score was overturned at 9:26 in the third period. Byfield scored an unassisted goal shorthanded with six minutes left, after Islanders' defenseman Tony DeAngelo snapped the stick he was holding to receive a pass. With 2:05 remaining in the second period, Lee's potential second goal was overturned. Sorokin left the game with just under four minutes remaining and Doughty sealed the victory with a goal with only 1:17 to go. Field Level Media
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Chinese consumers turn to Congolese copper off-exchange to ease supply shortages
Analysts and traders predict that China will import more refined off-exchange copper in this year as the output from Congo increases and consumers look to ease shortages and avoid a possible disruption of supplies of U.S. Scrap. The expected surge demonstrates the increasing reliance of China, as the largest copper consumer in the world, on the supply of refined metal from the Democratic Republic of Congo. DRC is now the second-largest producer of copper after years of massive Chinese investment. The Congo is a typical source of equivalent grade (EQ), copper, because the producers did not pay to register their metal on an exchange like the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This means that it cannot fulfill contracts on this market. EQ copper is cheaper than metal that has been registered, even though both meet the same specifications. Six traders and analysts involved in the Chinese market for copper said that they expect EQ's market share and import volume to increase again this year. According to Shanghai Metals Market, EQ copper was responsible for 62% (up from less than half) of China's imported refined copper last year. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics data, the refined copper market is still tight. The global demand has outpaced supply for 9 of 12 month in 2024. Citigroup predicts a deficit of 136,000 tons in 2025. Small- and medium-sized Chinese manufacturers of wires and rods are attracted to the lower-priced, high-quality EQ Copper. They have been squeezed by high copper prices. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) prices have increased by 18% since last year, and 9% from the beginning of the year. "EQ has become quite popular in China during the last few years." A copper trader explained that the main reason for this is because EQ copper has the same quality as registered brands, but at a cheaper price. LSEG data and Chinese customs show that almost three quarters of Congo’s 2 million tonnes of refined copper went to China in the past year. According to SMM, the bulk of this was EQ-copper. Imports of refined copper from the DRC into China in 2024 will be seven times greater than in 2019. According to Fastmarkets data from March 4, the premium for EQ copper that has a minimum metal content of 99.9935% was between $3 and $15 per tonne. Fastmarkets data on March 4 shows that the premium for EQ copper with a metal content of a minimum 99.9935% over the LME price was $3-$15 per tonne. This discount is due to the lack of registration fees, but also because registered copper commands a premium price as its purity and quality are recognised by an exchange. A number of traders stated that they were unaware of any quality problems with EQ Copper. This increased reliance on Congolese scrap could compensate for a possible loss of U.S. scrap imported amid President Donald Trump’s tariff investigation into copper. China imported nearly 440,000 tonnes of copper scrap last year from the U.S. Imports are expected fall, and some traders already have suspended purchases due to concerns that the trade war may increase costs. The supply of refined copper is still limited, and this includes scrap, concentrate, anode, and blister. Jonathan Barnes, Principal Analyst at metals research firm Project Blue, said that we expect to see higher imports for abundant refined copper including EQ Copper in order to partially compensate for the tightness of other raw materials.
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Russell: Coking coal imports to Asia fell in February but a recovery is imminent
In February, Asia's seaborne imports fell to their lowest level in three years due to a drop in demand by top buyers China and India. The factors that are causing the decline in demand for coal, which is used to produce steel, appear to be temporary. It's possible that imports of this type of coal will begin to increase from April. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne exports of coking coal (also known as fuel) dropped to 15,85 million metric tonnes in February from 20,42 million in the previous month. This is the lowest level since February 2022. India, the largest buyer, saw its imports fall to 4,56 million tons, from 6,26 million tons in January. This is the lowest since December 2021. India's steel output has increased modestly in the fiscal period that began in April 2024. 124.8 million tonnes were reported for the ten months ending in January, an increase of about 4.5% compared to the previous fiscal period. The industry has been struggling with two problems, including higher imports, and government restrictions on the import of coke, which is one of the raw materials that are used to convert ore to steel. India, which is the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, implemented quantitative restrictions with country-specific quotas for the import of low-ash metcoke. The total amount of overseas purchases was limited to 1.4 millions tons between January and June. The government aimed to encourage domestic steelmakers to use domestically-produced coke, but some companies have said the local product doesn't meet quality standards, with at least one producer saying it would be forced to curtail output from April onwards. Second, India's imports of steel reached a record in the first ten months of fiscal year. They were 8.3 million tonnes, an increase by 20.3% over the same period last year. The government has proposed a temporary tax or safeguard duty of 15 to 25 percent on imports of steel due to the high volume of imports. South Korea was the largest supplier of steel in India, with 2.4 millions tons, from April to January. China, with 2.3, and Japan, with 1.8, were close behind. The details of the tariffs will be released within a week. According to the Mint newspaper, 15% would be likely recommended. It will only be applied to steel products that are below a certain price. Imposing tariffs on imports of steel should increase domestic steel production and boost demand for coking-coal imports. The demand could increase if Indian producers of coke can convince domestic producers of steel that their product is appropriate. In a furnace, coking coal can be converted into coke. CHINA TARIFFS Kpler data shows that China, which is the world's second largest seaborne coking coal importer, saw its imports fall to an 18-month-low in February, with 2,88 million tons arriving, down from 4,60 million tons in January. China's coking coal imports tend to be lower at the end the northern winter, as steel mills reduce output to meet the lower demand and to cut air pollution. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the demand for seaborne coal was also reduced by increased overland imports, which rose to 56,8 million tons in 2024, a 5% increase. China's State Planner has stated that steel production in this year will be lower than the 1.03 billion tons recorded by 2024. This is a pretty bad sign for coking coal exports. China imposed a tariff of 15% on the imports of U.S. Coking coal as a retaliatory measure against a U.S. 10% tariff on all imports to China. This was later increased by President Donald Trump to 20%. China's trade with the United States will be virtually halted by the duty on imports of coking coal from the United States. In 2024, China is expected to buy 5.75 million tonnes of this fuel, or 11.6% of all seaborne arrivals. China may have to look for alternative suppliers in order to meet its coking coal requirements. The top exporters Australia and Canada are the most realistic options. Seaborne prices are expected to be supported by the adjustments in trade flows that China's tariffs on U.S. coal have caused. This is despite February's weak volume. Singapore Exchange contracts for Australian coal coking ended at $181 per ton on February 2, and are down by 12% from the highest price so far this year of $206 in January. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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EU to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth $28 billion
In response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, the European Union announced in a Wednesday statement that it would impose counter-tariffs on goods worth 26 billion euros (28.33 billion dollars) from next month. The commission announced that it would end the current suspension on tariffs for U.S.-made products on April 1. It will also present a new set of countermeasures against U.S.-made goods by midApril. "This is in line with the economic scope and impact of U.S. Tariffs." The countermeasures we will introduce in two stages. "Our countermeasures will be implemented in two steps, starting on 1 April, and being fully implemented by 13 April," Ursula von der Leyen said in a press release. "We are prepared to engage in meaningful dialog. "I have asked Trade Commissioner Maros SEFCIC to continue his discussions with the U.S. to find better solutions," von der Leyen said. U.S. President Donald Trump has increased the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 25% took effect On Wednesday, prior exemptions, duties free quotas and exclusions of products expired.
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Starlink, a satellite internet service from Musk's Starlink, and Reliance Satellite Internet Services of India sign a surprise deal
Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio has signed a deal to bring Starlink satellite Internet services to India. This is a surprising move by the billionaires who had been at odds with each other for months about how India should allocate spectrum to them. This deal comes on the heels of a similar announcement made by Starlink with India's No. 2 telecom player Bharti Airtel a day before. Starlink will be available in the retail stores of Indian telecom operators, giving Starlink direct access to thousands of outlets in India. The two deals are contingent upon Starlink receiving government approval for operations to begin in the country. The agreements follow a meeting between Elon Musk and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington where they discussed space, mobility, innovation, technology, and other issues. Deloitte predicts that India's satellite services sector will grow by 36% per year, to $1.9 billion in 2030. The deal will make it easier for the government to approve Starlink's projects, said Chaitanya GRI, Space Fellow with Observer Research Foundation. Starlink has waited for licenses in India to operate commercially since 2022, but there is no timeline on the decision. The decision has been postponed for a variety of reasons, including national security concerns. The advantage of Starlink is its larger constellation. It also benefits from SpaceX’s high frequency of rocket launches, as well as the geopolitical weight due to the Trump-Musk partnership," Giri said. A source familiar with the issue said that certain financial terms are tied to the pact, but refused to disclose any details. The person said, "This is an entry-level model for Starlink" in India. Jio is India's biggest telecom operator and will provide support for installation and activation of Starlink devices. Reliance stated in a press release that Jio, and SpaceX were also evaluating additional areas of collaboration to leverage their respective Infrastructures. MUSK AND INDIA Musk is facing a high-stakes situation in India where he has recently been. Sign up for our Newsletter A deal was made for the first Tesla showroom, which will sell imported electric cars. Musk has repeatedly complained that the tariffs are among the highest in the world. Neil Shah, cofounder of Counterpoint, said that while the move was surprising, Starlink's entry into the Indian market is a wise strategy. It's also a win for all parties involved, who were previously competing to get a piece of the pie, but are now working together and sharing. The Indian space regulator has approved Jio Platforms' launch of commercial satellite broadband services. Jio Platforms already operates a joint venture satellite internet with Luxembourg-based SES. Musk and Ambani's Reliance have clashed in the past over the method of awarding satellite spectrum to India. Reliance wanted an auction, but the Indian Government sided with Musk who wanted to allocate it administratively in accordance with global trends. Ambani lobbied New Delhi to ensure that there were no unfair advantages. His executives were worried that Starlink, a competitor to his telecom company which had spent $19 billion on airwave auctions could steal broadband customers and possibly data and voice clients with the advancement of technology.
Stocks recover some of their losses as optimism about Ukraine counters tariff fears
Investors gained some ground Tuesday, despite their fears about the impact of U.S. Tariffs. They were encouraged by Ukraine's agreement with Russia to end hostilities.
During talks in Saudi Arabia with U.S. officials, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day immediate ceasefire. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated that this left it up to Russia to respond.
The news came after President Donald Trump exacerbated economic worries by announcing that he had instructed his Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25% on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum from Canada. This would bring the total tariff for these products to 50%. Mona Mahajan is the head of investment strategy for Edward Jones. She cited Trump's recent tariff announcement as a reason why there was still uncertainty and volatility in this market.
The slowdown in economic growth was already occurring before the uncertainty surrounding tariffs in the U.S. This is normal in the first quarter, but it is unusual to add policy uncertainty to the mix.
The S&P 500 dropped the most on Monday after Trump refused to rule out recession due to his trade policies in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. He also spoke of a "period transition" and a "period that is changing."
Adding to the concerns over tariffs, data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. small business confidence fell for a third consecutive month in February. This erased much of what had been gained after Trump's election win in November.
Phil Blancato of Osaic Wealth, a New York-based chief market strategist, said that Delta Airlines' and Kohl's' guidance also suggested a softerening in consumer spending.
Investors also awaited the latest inflation information from the U.S. Consumer Price Index reading for February due on Wednesday.
The data for last month was hotter than expected, with the largest monthly price increase since August 2023.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 188.56, or 0.45% to 41,716.7, at 2:52 pm EDT (1852 GMT).
The Nasdaq Composite was up 182.80 or 1.05% at 17,645.07. After spending the majority of the morning in the red and closing 10% below its previous record high, the S&P500 rose 11.45 points or 0.2% to 5,624.63.
MSCI's global stock index fell 0.85 points or 0.1% to 831.88, having fallen as low as 822.44, which was over 7% below the most recent record closing on February 19.
The STOXX 600 pan-European index closed earlier with a 1.7% decline.
After dropping sharply on Monday the U.S. Treasury Yields have also stabilized and are pulling away from the five-month lows that were hit earlier in this session.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 7.8 basis points from 4.213% on Monday to 4.291%.
The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve has risen 4.5 basis points, to 3.941%.
The U.S. Dollar rose to an all-time high of one week against the Canadian Dollar, while the Euro reached a four-month-high against the Greenback amid hopes for a German defense spending agreement.
The euro rose 0.9% to $1.0928, but the dollar gained 0.38% against the Japanese yen at 147.82.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.26% against the greenback, to C$1.44 a dollar.
After a sharp drop on Monday, oil prices increased, but gains were limited as worries about a U.S. economic slowdown and tariffs' impact on the global economy grew.
U.S. crude oil settled up by 0.33% to $66.25 per barrel. Brent crude settled at $69.56 a barrel, an increase of 0.4%.
After a day of selling, gold prices rose 1.01%, to $2,918.63 per ounce. U.S. Gold futures increased 0.85% to $2.915.50 per ounce. Reporting by Sinead carew in New York; Alun John, in London; Ankur Banerjee, in Singapore; Alun, in London; additional reporting by Dhara, Kirsten, and Rod Nickel.
(source: Reuters)