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Oil rates jump 4% on reports Iran preparing to attack Israel

Oil costs leapt about 4% on Tuesday following reports Iran was preparing to launch a rocket attack on Israel.

Brent futures were up $2.50, or 3.5%, to $74.20 a. barrel by 11:50 a.m. EDT (1550 GMT), while U.S. West Texas. Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.54, or 3.7%, to $70.71.

Israel's elite units introduced minimal ground raids into. Lebanon, as Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group in Lebanon, fired. missiles at Tel Aviv, with the U.S. caution it had signs. Iran might be preparing to enter the fray with a ballistic rocket. attack on Israel.

The tit-for-tat escalation following weeks of intense. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon raised concerns of a broader. Middle East conflagration that would absorb both Iran and the. U.S.

Iran would be making a substantial mistake to attack Israel. now. Jerusalem will not hesitate to widen its military offensive. to hit Iran straight. And Iran's oil possessions are highly likely on. the target list, Clay Seigle, an independent political risk. strategist, said in an e-mail.

An Israeli attack on Iranian oil production or export. facilities might cause a material disruption, possibly more. than a million barrels daily, Seigle said.

Before news of a possible rocket attack from Iran, the. oil market was trading down near a two-week low as the outlook. for increased materials and tepid global need growth exceeded. worries over an intensifying Middle East conflict and its influence on. crude exports from the area.

A panel of ministers from the OPEC+ manufacturer group fulfills on. Oct. 2 to review the market, with no policy modifications expected.

Beginning in December, the OPEC+ group consisting of the. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies. such as Russia is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 bpd each. month.

The possibility that Libyan oil output will recover weighed. on the market previously in the day. Libya's eastern-based. parliament settled on Monday to authorize the election of a new. central bank governor, which could assist to end a crisis that has. decreased the nation's oil output.

Iran and Libya are both members of OPEC. Iran, which is. operating under U.S. sanctions, produced about 4.0 million bpd. of fuel in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million bpd last. year, according to information from the U.S. Energy Details. Administration.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the looming. resumption of Libyan output was bearish for oil costs, while. Chinese stimulus, U.S. oil demand development and slowing U.S. crude. supply growth were bullish.

In China, manufacturing activity diminished in September, a. private sector study revealed on Monday.

Analysts state stimulus procedures over the recently are most likely. to bring China's 2024 growth back to about 5% after several. months of below-forecast data cast doubts over that target,. though the longer-term outlook stays little changed.

U.S. OIL INVENTORIES

Weekly U.S. oil storage information is due from the American. Petroleum Institute trade group in the future Tuesday and the EIA on. Wednesday.

Experts predicted U.S. energy firms pulled about 2.1. million barrels of crude out of storage throughout the week ended. Sept. 27.

If correct, that would be the 3rd withdrawal in a row and. compare to a withdrawal of 2.2 million barrels throughout the very same. week in 2015 and a typical increase of 0.4 million barrels. over the preceding 5 years

(source: Reuters)