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Large modifications to US energy data leave traders and analysts befuddled

A string of remarkable revisions to main U.S. oil usage data have unnerved market individuals who rely on the figures to trade.

Traders and experts enjoy weekly and monthly supply and need data from the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical arm, which offered the U.S. is the top manufacturer and consumer of crude and fuel can affect decisions impacting billions of dollars of energy flows.

The releases likewise inform everything from policy decisions in Washington to just how much OPEC+ members will produce.

The analytical arm of the Department of Energy, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, published a month-to-month update last week that revealed U.S. oil intake at a seasonal record in May as vehicle drivers burnt more gasoline than even before the pandemic.

That data conflicted with weekly updates published that month revealing oil and fuel need struggling to even match last year's levels.

It is not unusual for monthly information - which is released with a two-month lag - to vary from preliminary weekly data by around 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), relatively minimal modifications in a market that consumes 20 million bpd.

However, current revisions have painted 2 starkly different demand photos.

May's weekly information, for instance, recommended U.S. gasoline consumption was simply over 9 million bpd in May, compared with over 9.1 million last year - which traders took as an indication that electrical automobiles, hybrids and more efficient engines were suppressing motor fuel usage.

Independently, the Petroleum Supply Monthly upgrade published last week, however, revealed U.S. fuel intake in May was nearly 400,000 bpd greater than that, and topped 2019 levels regardless of greater fuel costs.

That, and revisions to other products, flipped the tally of U.S. oil need to a seasonal record of 20.8 million bpd in May, 800,000 bpd greater than the weekly quotes. Likewise in April, oil need was revised higher by 400,000 bpd from the weekly price quotes.

The EIA says the weekly figures for May were off because initial readings overstated gas output and undercounted exports. The firm does not expect weekly price quotes to be as precise as regular monthly information, but to be constant in revealing general trends.

The EIA is constantly working to align its weekly and month-to-month information more closely and has actually made several modifications to both in an effort to much better reflect the petroleum market, a representative said.

' A LITTLE CONCERNING'

In spite of those efforts, however, the big revisions in current months are deteriorating the market's confidence in the reliability of the data, long-time markets observers said.

It makes you wonder why anybody is taking note of the weekly numbers, said Tom Kloza, head of energy analysis at Oil Rate Information Service (OPIS). Numerous fuel marketers have expressed shock over the revisions the EIA made to its numbers in May, he included.

OPIS publishes its own price quotes of gasoline demand using data from around a quarter of the more than 150,000 retail fuel circulation websites in service throughout the country. That information has consistently revealed year-on-year need degrading, lining up more carefully with the EIA's initial estimates for May.

Information from GasBuddy.com, a widely utilized fuel price tracking service, also lines up more carefully with the earlier weekly price quotes. GasBuddy's data for May pegs gas need at 8.87 million bpd, close to the EIA's weekly quotes from the time.

A trader at one of the largest commodities circulation companies said the revisions left them bewildered, and warned such modifications might ultimately harm consumers as choices on just how much fuel to import are influenced by the EIA data.

To be sure, traders sign up for dozens, if not hundreds, of private data feeds in addition to government information. Some even charter their own helicopters to fly over tank and price quote how much oil has actually moved in and out of them throughout trading hubs.

The U.S. EIA is the only government company that issues such granular and periodical updates on intake. While the modifications raise questions around dependability, most market observers state they consider the EIA's information an objective summary of the market at a time that the other 2 large energy reporting agencies - OPEC and IEA - are more apart than ever on the instructions of oil markets.

It's a pattern that's a little worrying to me, GasBuddy expert Patrick De Haan states.

The EIA has been the bedrock for analysts, however skeptics might be gaining more validity to arguments that the EIA numbers aren't jiving to the real life.

(source: Reuters)