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The morning bid for Europe continues to be successful, and rate reductions are in the near future.
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The longest U.S. Government shutdown in history appears to be nearing an end. Traders are riding a wave that started late last week. The Senate has approved a compromise which would restore funding to the U.S. Government. The bill now heads to the House where Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to pass it by Wednesday. The Nasdaq and gold have both posted their best gains for months. Gold is trying to regain the momentum it had in October, when it reached record highs. Bets on future U.S. rate cuts are also helping to boost the price of gold. The Asian stock markets were largely steady or slightly higher on Tuesday, and the risk-on sentiment pushed the safe haven yen down to its lowest level in nine months. The U.S. Bond Market is closed for the holiday on Tuesday, but there has been a shift away from riskier assets and a steadying of shorter bonds. This reflects a move out of riskier investments as well as a belief that the resumed publication of U.S. statistics will support a rate cut. SoftBank Group, a Japanese tech investor, is set to announce its second-quarter results amid a frenzy of investment in artificial intelligence which has sent the share price of this company soaring. Sony has raised its operating profit projection for the year ending in March 2026, by 8%. It cited a lower impact of U.S. Tariffs and the strength and growth of its music and chip businesses. Commonwealth Bank shares fell by nearly 5% in Australia after the largest lender of the country said that competition was reducing margins. Tuesday marks Singles Day in China and is the culmination to what has become a shopping spree lasting for weeks. In the past, 1,44 trillion yuan (202 billion dollars) worth of goods were purchased during this period. This is almost five times what U.S. consumers spent during Cyber Week last year, which was the period between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Earnings of SoftBank, Vodafone, and Munich Re - German ZEW Survey, British Weekly Employment Data
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Gold nears 3-week high on rate-cut betting and US shutdown optimism
Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, reaching their highest level for nearly three weeks. This was due to growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December. There were also signs that the U.S. Government shutdown would be ending. As of 0458 GMT spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,142.72 an ounce. This is the highest it has been since October 23. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.7%, to $4148.80 an ounce. The U.S. Senate approved a deal Monday to restore federal funding, ending the longest government shut down. The shutdown has delayed key economic indicators, such as the report on non-farm payrolls. The reopening of the government in the next few days will provide more clarity about the U.S. economy and the Fed interest rate trajectory. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said that "the idea that the shutdown was ending was more met with a lifting of a level uncertainty that allowed markets to reengage in what had been one of the most important speculative stories this year." The bias for the remainder of the year still favors the upside. The path of least resistence for gold at this point is back to the October high and we may be heading higher after that. Data released last week showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, mainly due to losses in the retail and government sectors. A survey released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment had fallen to its lowest level in three-and-a half years at the beginning of November, amid concerns about the impact the shutdown would have on the economy. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 64% chance that the Fed is going to cut rates by 25 basis point next month. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Monday that a rate cut of 50 basis points would be appropriate in December. He noted that the inflation rate was falling, while the unemployment rate was rising. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and economic uncertainty is present. Silver spot gained 0.8%, to $50.94 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.4%, to $1.584.40, and palladium increased 1.4%, to $1.435.43. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Subhranshu Sahu and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru).
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Australia's watchdog takes AVZ Minerals to court for Congo disclosure violations
The Australian corporate regulator announced on Tuesday that it had sued AVZ and two of its directors. It claimed the miner did not disclose an escalating dispute with the Democratic Republic of the Congo regarding its stake in a project for lithium. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission accused the Perth-based firm of failing to disclose information and engaging in misleading and deceptive behavior by withholding the dispute. AVZ owns a 75% stake through Dathcom Mining, its subsidiary. Since 2022, it has been involved in a dispute over ownership rights of the project which contains the largest hard-rock deposits of lithium. Watchdog claims that Nigel Ferguson, Managing Director and Technical Director Graeme Johnston also breached director duties when they authorized exchange filings which were "false, misleading or omitted certain matters" relating the dispute. ASIC's Deputy Chair Sarah Court stated that Mr Ferguson and Mr Johnston allegedly failed to inform investors about the ongoing issues of this matter for almost 12 months. The pair allegedly failed take reasonable steps to ensure AVZ complied to its obligations of continuous disclosure and that the statements made to ASX (Australian Securities Exchange), were not misleading or false. AVZ was taken off the ASX market in May 2024. The company didn't immediately respond to our request for comment.
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Oil prices fall on fears of oversupply and sanctions risks
The oil prices fell in Asian trade Tuesday, as concerns over oversupply outweighed the uncertainty about the impact of U.S. Sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft & Lukoil. Also, optimism was high over the progress made toward the reopening of the U.S. Government. Brent crude futures dropped 12 cents or 0.2% to $63.94 per barrel at 0426 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $59.99 per barrel, down by 14 cents (0.2%). Both benchmarks rose by around 40 cents during the last session. The longest shutdown in U.S. government history could come to an end this week, after the Senate approved compromises that restore federal funding. The agreement now moves to the House of Representatives where Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to pass it by Wednesday. Oil prices are being held back by concerns about an oversupply of crude oil, despite the fact that progress towards reopening government has lifted markets in general. Analysts at the energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates wrote in a report that "as OPEC's production increases continue, the global oil balances have a more bearish tone on the supply side. Demand is still on the decline in tandem with a slowed growth path in major oil-consuming nations." Earlier in the month, OPEC+ decided to raise December production targets by 137,000 barrels a day, just as they did for October and November. The group also agreed to put a stop to the increases during the first quarter next year. In a note published on Tuesday by ANZ, analysts noted that while the oil glut triggered in recent weeks by rising OPEC production has caused investors to become more bearish, U.S. Sanctions remain a focus. They were referring to President Donald Trump’s latest measures against Russian oil giants Rosneft, and Lukoil. On Monday, sources said that Bulgaria was preparing to seize Burgas' refinery and Lukoil had declared force majeure on its Iraqi oilfield. The biggest impact of the sanctions is the force majeure on the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq. Analysts said that the amount of oil on board ships in Asian waters has doubled over the past few weeks, after Western sanctions tightened hit exports to China, India, and other countries, and import quotas curbed demand by independent Chinese refiners. Analysts say that some refiners from China and India are now buying oil in the Middle East. Ritterbusch said that one potential threat to the oil market's bearish outlook is "the extent to which China continues to push Russian supply into strategic stockspiles, and whether India succumbs to Trump's suggestion that India defer further purchases of Russian oil." Reporting by Ashitha shivaprasad from Bengaluru, and Emily Chow from Singapore. Editing by Sonali p.
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Alaska sues over aerial bear hunting to protect caribou
On Monday, environmental groups sued Alaska’s wildlife authorities to stop a predator-control plan that allows game wardens to hunt an unlimited number of bears using helicopters in a vast area where a protected herd of caribou roams. The groups claim that the Board of Game reinstated the program, without taking into account the impact on grizzly bear and black beaver populations. This is a violation of Alaska's wildlife conservation provisions. The suit was filed in the state district court of Anchorage. It claimed that state fish and games agents had killed 175 black bears and 175 grizzlies since 2023 under two previous versions of the program, which were struck down by courts. Officials from the state wildlife departments have denied that efforts to protect caribou threaten bear populations. In a July statement, state Fish and Game commissioner Douglas Vincent-Lang stated that the new regulations would not jeopardize the long-term survival of bears. A law suit seeks to ban aerial bear hunting The Center for Biological Diversity and Alaska Wildlife Alliance filed a lawsuit against Vincent-Lang on Friday, as well as the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and Board of Game that sets policy. The plaintiffs seek a court order to block a renewed aerial bear hunt before the next round, which will be in spring 2026. This is due to the caribou calves season and the appearance of mother bears out of dens with their newborn cubs. The program was created to reduce bear predation, which state wildlife officials attribute for reducing the Mulchatna Caribou population. The herd has been estimated to be less than 15,000. This is well below the goal of 30 to 80 thousand animals deemed necessary for subsistence and traditional hunting. The lawsuit claims that the number of bears is not as clear. It cites a range between 2,000 to 7,000 grizzlies, which it states the Department has estimated for the entire southwestern Alaska region, based on outdated research. It said that the department did not provide any estimates of black bear populations. GROUP SAYS BEAR CONTROL IS MISTAKEN Environmental groups have said that the program to control bears is a misguided one, which has for years prioritized the protection of large-game species over bears and predators who are needed to maintain a healthy ecosystem balance. Cooper Freeman is the Alaska director of Center for Biological Diversity. He said that the Department of Fish and Game wanted to turn Alaska into a "game farm" and treat wolves and bears as disposable. Freeman, in contrast to the state wildlife officials who claim that caribou calves being eaten by bears is the main threat to their recovery, said that disease and lack food resources exacerbated by climate changes are key factors. Officials from the state also claim that the bear control program was limited to an area of approximately 1,200 square miles (3,100 square kilometers), while environmentalists assert that the predator control plan is applicable to an area of 40,000 square miles (104,000 km) adjacent wildlife refuges.
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Gold nears 3-week high on rate-cut bets and end of US shutdown
Gold reached a three-week high Tuesday. This was helped by the growing expectation of another interest rate reduction in December from the U.S. Federal Reserve and signs that the U.S. Government shutdown will be over. Gold spot was up 0.7% to $4,142.83 an ounce at 0314 GMT. This is its highest level since October 24. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.7% to $4148.50 an ounce. Late on Monday, the U.S. Senate approved a deal to restore federal funding in the United States and end this longest-running shutdown. The federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators, such as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. The end of the government shutdown in the next few days will provide more clarity about the U.S. economy and the Fed interest rate path. Ilya Spirak, global macro head at Tastylive said that "the idea that the U.S. government shutdown was ending" was more viewed as a lifting of an uncertainty level that allowed markets to engage with what had been one of the most important speculative stories this year. The bias for the remainder of the year still favors the upside. The path of least resistence for gold at this point is back to the October high and we may be heading higher after that. Data released last week showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, mainly due to losses in the retail and government sectors. A survey released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment fell to its lowest level in 3-1/2 years at the beginning of November, amid concerns about the economic impact from the U.S. shutdown which was the longest ever. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 64% chance that the U.S. Central Bank will reduce rates by 25 basis point next month. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Monday that a rate cut of 50 basis points would be appropriate in December. He noted that the inflation rate was falling, while the unemployment rate was rising. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and economic uncertainty is present. The price of spot silver rose by 0.5%, to $50.80 an ounce. Platinum increased 0.3%, to $1.581.60 and palladium gained 1.2%, to $1.431.45. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Brijesh patel from Bengaluru)
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Copper prices rise on US shutdown and tight supply
The copper price rose on Tuesday as the market grew more optimistic about a possible resolution of the U.S. government shutdown. Meanwhile, new production data confirmed expectations for a tighter supply in 2013. As of 0240 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 0.42% to 86,690 Yuan ($12,170.43) a metric tonne. The benchmark copper for the three-month period was up by 0.24% to $10,822 per tonne. The U.S. Senate passed a bill to end the longest government shutdown on Monday, pending approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Speaker Mike Johnson said that he would pass the bill as early as Wednesday, and then send it to U.S. president Donald Trump to sign into law. The agreement will fund federal agencies until January 30. This will provide temporary relief for federal workers who are not paid, food assistance programs that have been disrupted and travel services that are strained. The market also responded positively to the resolution. Investors will now be waiting for a backlog in key economic data that has been delayed by the shutdown of the federal government. This information should provide new insight into the U.S. Economy once federal operations resume. According to Cochilco's data, the copper prices were also supported by the reduced production of Chile's state owned miner Codelco. The company produced 7% less in September. The production at the mine operated jointly by Glencore, Anglo American and BHP fell by 26% while Escondida's output rose 17%. The prospect of a short supply in the coming year has supported copper prices, as several mine disruptions are expected to affect copper concentrate production. Aluminium was up by 0.30% among other SHFE metals. Zinc gained 0.27%. Tin added 0.52%. Lead dipped by 0.26%. Nickel edged down 0.20%. Aluminium, tin, zinc, and lead all fell 0.22%. Tuesday, 11 November DATA/EVENTS - GMT 0700 UK Claimant Court Unemployment Chng October 0700 UK Unemployment Rate September 200700 UK HMRC Changes in Payrolls October 1000 Germany Economic Sentiment November 1,000 Germany Current Conditions November
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Iron ore prices on the rise as investors weigh up stimulus plans against falling demand
Iron ore futures were traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors weighed the hopes for fresh stimulus coming from Beijing in the next month with signs of a softening in demand in China, which is regarded as arguably its biggest consumer. As of 0235 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange increased by 0.46% to $765 yuan (US$107.40) per metric ton. As of 0225 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.12% to $102.05 per ton. Steven Yu, senior analyst at Mysteel, stated that the recent price drop had caused a divergence in the market outlook. This has led to a convergence in prices. Yu said that bulls believed that a fall in crude steel production year-to date would reduce the pressure to cut production in the remainder of the year. Also, there is hope for stimulus measures which will be announced at the politburo in December. Last month, data from China showed that the country's crude steel production fell by 2.9% in the nine months leading up to September. October figures are due this Friday. Beijing announced in March that it would restructure the vast steel industry by cutting output. As part of its goals to reduce carbon emissions, China has set a cap on the growth in crude steel production every year since 2021. Mysteel’s Yu stated that bears are betting on lower production as some mills continue reducing their production. Steelmakers are cutting back production due to a decline in steel demand, and high raw material costs. The coke and coal used in steelmaking are largely unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar rose by 0.13%. Hot-rolled coil increased by 0.52%. Wire rod fell 0.03%. Stainless steel dropped 0.4%. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
Indian state-run companies prepare for $1 billion debt rush as rates fall
Three Indian state-run firms are planning bond offerings in the next few days. They aim to raise up to $1 billion through medium and long term bonds, according three bankers on Tuesday.
The bankers stated that the National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development, Power Grid Corp and Housing and Urban Development Corp would raise an aggregate amount of 90 billion rupees by issuing notes with a maturity between five and 15 years.
The yields on Indian corporate bonds have fallen in the last few days due to a lack of supply from state-owned companies and a decline in government bond yields, which is believed to be the result of central bank purchases.
According to data compiled from LSEG, AAA-rated short bonds yields have fallen more than 15 basis point since the beginning of October. Long-end yields also fell by over 10 bps.
The bankers stated that NaBFID intends to raise 55 billion rupees via five-year and fifteen-year notes. HUDCO will likely opt for a 5-year issue in order to raise between 15 and 20 billion rupees.
Power Grid Corp. may be able to tap the 10-year portion of the curve in order to raise approximately 20 billion rupees.
Companies did not reply to emails asking for comment. The bankers asked for anonymity because they are not authorized to speak with media.
Last week, NTPC Green Energy issued bonds for 10 years with a coupon rate of 7.01%. This was more than 10 basis points lower than the current AAA-rated bond yield.
The strong response from investors to NTPC Green Energy’s debut issue reflects the growing appetite for high-quality, long-term corporate bonds, said Venkatakrishnan Shrinivasan. He is founder and managing director of debt advisory firm Rockfort Fincap.
The market is experiencing a severe shortage of AAA-rated long-term paper, as most issuers have chosen shorter maturities this fiscal year. This has led long-term investors, who normally increase their allocations between December & January, to move up to November. $1 = 88.6950 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala).
(source: Reuters)