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MSCI reclassifying Argentina could trigger $1 bln of inflows, JPMorgan says

A possible upgrade for Argentina to emerging market status from index provider MSCI could see nearly $1 billion in financier money put into the nation's stocks, JPMorgan said on Tuesday.

MSCI classifies Argentina as a Standalone Market instead of as part of its commonly followed suite of emerging market indexes. The index supplier relegated Argentina in November 2021 in the middle of market accessibility concerns, consisting of hard capital controls that limited investors' ability to replicate the index.

Argentina's federal government under President Javier Milei has actually been on a significant reform push and has actually vowed to move into stage 2 of its strategy to stabilise the crisis-hit economy, with inflation in triple digits, a deepening economic downturn, and myriad capital controls that alter trade however remain in place to shield the peso.

If Argentina were to rejoin the MSCI EM indexes, JPMorgan forecasted 4 firms would be part of the MSCI Argentina Requirement Index - YPF, Grupo Financiero Galicia , Banco Macro and Pampa Energia, while the MSCI Argentina Small Cap Index would have eleven constituents.

With an estimated weight of 0.2% in EM, Argentina would stand between Colombia and Peru in the EM Index, said JPMorgan's Diego Celedon.

If a reclassification emerges, JPMorgan estimates potential inflows could reach nearly $1 billion, including $786. million from the Standard Index and $176 million from the Small. Cap Index.

Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo and reserve bank. chief Santiago Bausili told the country's banks in a conference. last month that capital controls would be raised, but without. any rush, according to a source.

JPMorgan expected curbs to be alleviated as soon as macroeconomic. conditions were stabilizing and FX reserve ratios improving,. adding it expected to see that beginning to materialise in the. 4th quarter.

MSCI generally reveals any modifications to its nation. classification throughout its Market Category Evaluation which. tends to be scheduled for June and typically follow a. consultation procedure with investors.

(source: Reuters)