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Oil and Treasury yields fall on Iran-US pause

Oil and Treasury yields fall on Iran-US pause
Oil and Treasury yields fall on Iran-US pause

Oil prices fell and Treasury yields dropped on Monday after the United States paused its two-week long attack against Iran.

News of the news sparked hopes of a diplomatic solution to deescalate conflict and allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors were cautious as tensions continued to rise. Donald Trump stated on Monday that the United States is having "good discussions" with Iran and that there is a possibility of a settlement to their conflict. However, he added, if negotiations fail, U.S. attacks will resume.

Jeff Klingelhofer is the managing director of Aristotle Pacific Capital, based in Newport Beach, California. He said, "What the markets are struggling with is the constant kind of back-and-forth where it appears that Donald Trump has the ability to control the sentiment, despite investors not having an off ramp or an end to war?and durable lower oil prices."

Investors were also kept away from the market by central bank interest rate decisions, and earnings of key tech companies due this week.

U.S. crude oil fell 8.21%, to $81.98 per barrel. Brent dropped to $87.77 a barrel on the same day, down by 9.31%.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 3.03 basis points from 4.679% to?4.649% at late Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the best performance of all major U.S. stocks, gaining 262.98 points or 0.51% to 52,210.23. The S&P 500 gained 1.24 points or 0.02% to 7,413.22, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 43.74 points or 0.17% to 24,932.08.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.02% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index fell 1.11 points or 0.04%.

Central banks are expected to remain unchanged when the U.S. Federal Reserve's?two day meeting concludes on Wednesday. However, traders still see a possibility of a rate hike. The Fed's expectations have been thrown into turmoil after recent increases in oil prices rekindled inflation fears. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s preference for less guidance adds to the uncertainty about whether the central banks will raise rates.

Fed funds futures traders currently price in 38% odds that a hike will occur on Wednesday, and 83% of an increase occurring by September.

In a recent note, Edward Jones Senior Analyst Brian Therien stated that "a hold is most likely to occur. However, a few votes in favor of an increase are possible." The Bank of England is expected to announce its policy on Thursday. This will be followed by the Bank of Japan's announcement on Friday. Both are expected keep rates unchanged while indicating continued caution regarding inflation risks.

The dollar fell 0.07% to 163.73 yen. Gold prices rose 0.73% on commodity markets to $4,082.16 per ounce.

A WAVE of?Companies Report Earnings

Investors will also be watching the earnings of S&P companies, as approximately one-third are due to report their results this week.

The results of "Magnificent Seven' members Microsoft, Amazon.com Meta, and Apple are expected to be a major test for the AI industry.

The negative cash-flow reports of Alphabet and Tesla from last week added to the concerns about debt-fueled spending by corporations, while Chinese Chipmaker CXMT’s strong stock-market debut signaled an intensifying competition in the U.S. Semiconductor Industry.

The week's data highlights include the U.S. second-quarter advance GDP reading. Calendar highlights include the June PCE Price Index, personal income and?consumption?data and weekly jobless claims. Also included are the second-quarter Employment Cost Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The data released on Monday revealed that orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods rose strongly in June, while shipments increased by the most since 4-1/2 years. Businesses ramped up spending on artificial inteligence. This suggests the economy maintained an?economic growth rate of about 2% in the second quarter.

The Eurozone data schedule includes the flash second-quarter GDP and July consumer confidence figures, as well as the flash inflation and June unemployment numbers. Ifo Institute survey released on Monday revealed that German business morale was higher than expected in the month of July. This was due to significantly higher expectations. Reporting by Karen Brettell, Additional reporting by Sruthi Shakar, Chuck Mikolajczak Johann M Cherian Will Dunham Ragini Mathematics Florence Tan Trixie Yap, Editing by Joe Bavier, Aurora Ellis.

(source: Reuters)