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Sassou, Congo Republic's Sassou, seeks a new term amid low turnout and internet outage
The Congo Republic held a presidential election on Sunday, which was expected to extend the reign of Denis Sassou Nguesso - one of Africa's most experienced leaders. A low turnout highlighted the lack of suspense about the result. Sassou is facing a "weak" field of opponents, as two of the most well-known opposition leaders are in prison or exile. Many opposition parties boycotted this election because they felt the process was untrustworthy. Analysts and civil society groups predict that the turnout will be lower than the 68% in 2021 when Sassou was elected to his five-year term with 88.4%. A witness reported that there were no or very short lines at the polling stations of Brazzaville's capital. Sassou, after casting his vote in Brazzaville told reporters that he hoped the?enthusiasm he saw on the campaign trail?would be apparent in the final turnout number. He said: "We are hopeful that the things I heard during the campaign will come to pass today." The voting was to finish at 6 pm local time (1700 GMT) and the counting would begin immediately afterwards. The provisional results will be available 48-72 hours after polls close. INTERNET OUTAGE REPORTED Sassou has been in power since 1979, with the exception of a five-year break in the 1990s. He ran against six candidates who were not well-known, and none of them was considered a serious contender. The electoral body was dominated by figures aligned to the ruling Congolese Labour Party. Remadji Hoinathy, of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, said that "the opposition is fragmented" and does not have a "strong, emblematic figure". Sassou will still have a chance despite voter fatigue. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported that the internet was down in many parts of the country on Election Day, making it hard to get an accurate picture of what was happening. In an email, Alp Toker of NetBlocks confirmed that a nationwide internet blackout was now in place in the Republic of Congo. This measure is likely to limit transparency in today's elections. Toker stated that this was "technically compatible" with a?internet shutdown imposed for the 2021 presidential election. Neither the Congolese Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso nor the Communications Minister Thierry Moungalla responded to inquiries about the outage. Voters See No Hope for Change Rights groups claim that the political space in Congo has shrunk in recent years. They cite arrests of activists, and suspensions by political parties. After a long decline, the economy - heavily dependent on crude oil - has stabilised over the past few years. According to the World Bank, 52% of Congo’s 6.1m people live in poverty. Some Congolese who voted said that the country needs a new direction. They did not specify whether they backed Sassou, or his opponent. Gigi Wandiabantou, a Brazzaville resident, said: "Our children have diplomas and they are not doing anything." "I'm counting on the people in charge to do something for us mothers." Some Congolese believe there is little hope for change. Frederic Nkou, a Brazzaville resident who is unemployed, said: "It's a?election with a known outcome." "I don’t expect things will improve." Makosso, the Prime Minister, dismissed allegations of pro-Sassou slant ahead of Sunday's vote. He argued that Congo's electoral oversight bodies will ensure a fair and transparent election. Sassou's campaign has been based on continuity. He has pledged to expand education and training and to speed up development projects. Clement Bonnerot, Ngouda Diaone and Robbie Corey Boulet in the Dakar and Congo Republic Newsroom. Editing by Andrei Khalip Joe Bavier Alexander Smith
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Netanyahu responds to Iran's rumours about his death by posting a video
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, posted a video on Sunday of him 'getting a coffee and' chatting with an aide after rumours of his death or injury were spread by the iranian state media. In the video taken in a café on the outskirts of Jerusalem and posted to Netanyahu's Telegram, his aide questions him about the rumours. As he grabs a coffee, Netanyahu makes a joke about the word "dead" -- which in Hebrew slang is used to refer to someone or something that you are "crazy for". "I love coffee. You know what? Netanyahu tells his aide, "I'm mad about my people." The video's location was verified by comparing the file images of the cafe with the interiors shown in the video. The cafe posted multiple photos and videos of Netanyahu's Sunday visit. This allowed us to verify the date. Netanyahu's office distributed videos and limited media access since the U.S. launched its attack on Iran in February. He has also visited two towns that were hit by Iranian missiles as well as a hospital, port, military base and a?port. Netanyahu, who rarely gives interviews or news conferences to Israeli media, held a 'first press conference via video link since the beginning of the war on Thursday. This format was similar to that he used in June, during Israel's 12-day conflict with Iran. Since the beginning of the war, Israel has imposed emergency safety restrictions that have banned public gatherings. Most people are now at home or in safe rooms and shelters. Schools across the majority of the country are closed.
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IEA: Emergency oil stockpiles coming soon to Iran's devastated markets
The International Energy Agency said that more than 400 million barrels?of oil from its emergency reserves would begin to 'flow soon. The agency announced on Sunday that stocks of goods from Asia, Oceania, and North America will be available as soon as possible, and those from Europe and South America will be ready by the end March. The statement stated that the governments have committed to making 271.7 million barrels available from government stock, 116.6 millions barrels from industry stocks and 23.6million barrels from other sources. IEA?said that the majority of pledged reserves – 195.8 millions barrels – are from member nations in?the Americas. 172.2 million of those barrels come from government stock. Asia Oceania members countries have committed to contributing 108.6 millions barrels. 66.8 of those barrels will come from government stock. Europe has pledged 107.5million barrels including 32.7million barrels from government stock. According to the IEA, 72% of planned releases will be crude oil, and 28% oil?products. The IEA was created in 1974, after the oil crises. The IEA has released six coordinated stockpiles since its creation. According to the IEA, the release was made to 'combat a spike in oil price caused by disruptions of around a fifth of the global oil and natural gas supply along the Strait of Hormuz after the war started on February 28. Iran warned on Wednesday that the world must be prepared for oil prices of $200 per barrel, as its forces continue to attack merchant ships in the strait. IEA member countries hold more than 1.2billion barrels in emergency stocks, and another 600m are held by industry under government obligations. Reporting by Layli foroudi, Editing by Joe Bavier & Andrew Heavens
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The economy of Peru grew by 3.54% in January
Data from the nation's INEI statistical agency revealed that Peru's economy grew 3.54% on an annual basis in January. This was driven by growth across most economic sectors, including construction, commerce and mining. The Central Bank's Chief?economist estimated that the figure would be around 3.5%. The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), in a report released on January 15, said that the mining sector grew by 3.08% compared to the previous year after?two consecutive declines. The increase in January was due to a rise in production of copper, zinc, and gold. Peru is the third largest copper producer in the world. The statistics office reported that the construction industry also showed a notable increase in January. It grew by 15.63% year-on-year, largely due to domestic cement consumption. In January, the?fishing industry fell by 9.56% on an annual basis. This was its third consecutive month of decline. The Ministry of Economy and Finance of the Andean country estimates an economic growth of 3.2% by 2026, as opposed to the projected 3.44% for '2025. Peru has had eight presidents in the past year, causing political instability. On April 12th, elections will be held and a new president will take office at the end July. (Reporting and editing by Bill Berkrot, Will Dunham and Alexander Villegas)
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Sources say that Fujairah in the UAE resumes oil loading after an attack
Four sources confirmed that oil loading operations at the United Arab Emirates Fujairah, a major 'bunkering hub' and crude export terminal, had re-commenced despite a Saturday drone attack and fire. However, it is unclear whether the operations are back to normal. The U.S. - Iran war has already reduced Middle Eastern oil supply by more than?7m barrels a day, or 7% of the global supply. The disruptions?at Fujairah could force OPEC’s third largest crude producer to cut more?production, after already cutting production at its offshore oil fields. According to Kpler, Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz exported on average?more? than 1.7million barrels of crude oil and refined fuels?per day last year. This volume is equal to around 1.7% of world daily demand. The Middle East's biggest commercial storage facility for refined products is also located in Fujairah. Iran warned of new attacks against UAE ports on Saturday, after U.S. strike on Kharg Island facilities. Iranian news agencies reported that Iran had warned residents to evacuate areas near the?Jebel Al port in Dubai, Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi and Fujairah. ADNOC (Abu Dhabi State Oil Company), which is based in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, has not responded to a request for comment. ADNOC closed its Ruwais refining plant on Tuesday. Bloomberg News reported earlier that?oil loading operations? had resumed in the emirate. Reporting by Sarah El Safty in Dubai and Youssef Sabah in Bengaluru, Seher Dareen and Shri Navaratnam in London, and Jamie Freed, Gareth Jones and Gareth Jones in London.
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Bahrain's Alba closes 19% aluminium production as Hormuz continues to disrupt the supply chain
Aluminium Bahrain (also known as Alba) announced on Sunday that it had halted 'three aluminium melting lines,' which accounted for '19% of its total capacity, in order to maintain business continuity amid the ongoing disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. Force majeure was declared by the company on 'March 4, as it could not ship metal to customers due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Alba, which describes itself as the "world's largest?smelter of aluminium on one site," announced in a press release that it had begun a "controlled safe shutdown" for reduction lines 1, 2, and 3. The company added: "This targeted action is designed to optimize the utilisation of Alba's current raw materials inventory, and to prioritise the operational stability across?"Reduction Lines 4, 5, and 6." Middle East smelters - which account for 9% of global supply - have also been unable to import vessels containing their main raw material, Alumina. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier; Tom Daly)
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Japan releases oil stocks after US orders to buy American
Japan will begin releasing oil on Monday to ease the shock of?the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. This is a stark reminder of the oil shortage that occurred half a century earlier, which prompted Tokyo's creation reserves. Tokyo announced that it would release 80 million barrels of crude oil to Japan, which is enough to last the nation for 45 days. The war in the Gulf has disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The Japanese government has instructed refiners to use the crude oil released, which will reduce Japan's national reserves by 17 percent, to ensure domestic supplies. The amount of oil that will be released by the International Energy Agency for a global supply release of 400,000,000 barrels to combat the war's price volatility and supply shock is unknown. RESERVES STABILISE SUPPLY, BUT "MAINLY BUILD TIME" Yuriy?Humber, CEO of Tokyo-based consultancy Yuri Group, says that Japan's release demonstrates how seriously Tokyo views disruption. The reserves are mainly there to buy time, but can help stabilize supplies and prices on a short-term basis. He said that they couldn't "fully offset" a disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry states that any potential release of 12 million barrels held jointly by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in Japan would be additional to the 80 million barrels announced. Japan began its national oil reserves system in 1978, several decades after the Arab oil embargo. The Group of Seven nation is reliant on Middle East oil for 90% of its consumption. It now stockspiles enough to last 254 days. METI reports that the government will begin releasing oil from its reserves to cover 15 days of consumption by the private sector on Monday. METI Minister Ryosei Acazawa stated that private companies are preparing to?tap Japan's stockpiles?, but they also want supplies from Central Asia, South America, and Gulf countries, which can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Japan buys around 4% its oil from the U.S., after ceasing to purchase it from Russia in 2022 following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Lee Zeldin, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Administrator, said: "When you consider the conflict in the Middle East.....you are reminded that all the crude oil..that went from Alaska to Japan..was never..targeted by a successful terrorist.attack." This conflict is a reminder to other nations that the United States has the resources they need. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard; Yuka Obayashi, Katya Golubkova)
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Palestinian Health Authorities say that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in West Bank.
Palestinian health officials said that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians on Sunday. They included a mother, a father, and two children, while they were driving in the occupied West Bank. Palestinian health officials report that a mother and father aged 35 and 37 and two of their children ages?5 or 7 were shot in the head in the village Tammun. Two of their other children also sustained injuries. The Israeli military said that it would be examining the reports. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, a Palestinian also died in an overnight attack by settlers. Rights groups and medics claim that Israeli settlers are using the restrictions on movement imposed by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran as an excuse to attack Palestinians. Military 'roadblocks' prevent ambulances from reaching the victims quickly. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, settlers have killed at least five 'Palestinians' in the West Bank ever since the Iran War began on February 28. Reporting by Ali Sawafta and Emily Rose, Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Editing By William Mallard
As oil prices rise to $60, Permian's resilience is tested.
Oil production in Texas is on the rise. Mark Waters owns a shop that sells safety and tools to oil companies.
In the past four to six month, Tie Specialties in Odessa in Texas has seen a drop of 25% in sales in the oilfield. Shelves are filled with power tools, wrenches and augers to dig holes. Pegboards display hard hats and gloves as well as various colors of overalls.
This is my sixth boom and bust. I've seen it all. Waters, 65, said, "I'd call it slowdown but everyone I've spoken to says that the future for the next two years is not bright." The full impact of this downturn has not yet been felt by the U.S. Oil output. Interviews with 10 producers, services companies, and residents in the Permian basin show that Waters, and other people who live and work around oilfields, are having a harder time making a profit. Crude is hovering around $60 per barrel and this indicates that the economy will be worsened.
The biggest U.S. Oilfield has survived previous downturns. But President Donald Trump's policy has added to the slide of per-barrel profits of U.S. Producers. This was already stifled due to rising production from producer group Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies as well as the largest wave of consolidation since a century.
Cracks are starting to show
Local business owners are noticing a decline in footfall and sales.
Waters now hopes to counter the loss of oilfield services by relying on demand for electrical products from the data center boom. Waters also runs a generator-repair business that is experiencing a boom in business due to companies avoiding spending on new equipment. Midland's skyline is beginning to show signs of the recession, with idle 100-foot rigs lining stockyards. Equipment is being liquidated by service firms. Leading producers such as ConocoPhillips and Chevron have laid off employees. The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that oil and gas production jobs nationwide have dropped by 4,000 between January and July of this year. Approximately 370,000 Texans were employed in oil and natural gas production at the beginning of this year.
The U.S. produced a record number of barrels per day this month.
The improvements in technology and efficiency have allowed producers to squeeze more oil from fewer wells. As a result, some analysts predict that output will drop this year or the next due to spending cuts. In the next two years, any growth in output will come more from offshore deepwater fields than the shale patches.
Data from Enverus, an energy analytics company, showed that the Permian Rig Count, which is a proxy of future production, fell by 52 to 252 in October from the previous year. This was the biggest decline since 2020 when COVID-19 reduced demand.
We've been in contact with the administration to let them know that investment returns are becoming more difficult when oil prices are between $50 and $60. Denzil WEST, CEO of Admiral Permian Resources (which produces around 25,000 bpd) said that this will eventually lead to the current production levels becoming unsustainable.
The Economics of Drilling are 'Upside Down'
Oil companies are now facing higher production costs due to inflation and Trump's tariffs. They will need to charge even more for their oil than in previous cycles.
Kirk Edwards of Texas-based Latigo Petroleum said that drilling and finishing a shale oil well cost between $10 million and $12 million. This is 5% to 10% more than the previous year.
"The economics have completely flipped from what they were in January." Edwards stated that drilling a well is more expensive and that you are getting 20% less oil for it. Executives said that companies need oil at around $70 a barrel to maintain and increase production. However, for more than half of the days since Trump was elected, prices have been below $65 a barrel as OPEC, its allies and demand concerns continue. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which is the U.S. benchmark for pricing Permian Basin Oil, will average $51.26 by 2026.
Surge Energy, a major private producer in the Midland Basin, plans to continue drilling at the current price, but will do so at a slower pace, according to CEO Linhua Guan. The company has operated three rigs in the Midland basin since 2021. In July, it dropped one, reducing capex by a high single-digit percentage. The Permian oilfield, the biggest in the United States and the engine for shale production in the US, is becoming harder to gain efficiency. The area with the best economics for drilling is shrinking, forcing producers to more expensive areas.
"Investment returns are lower at $60 to $55 per barrel than they were five years ago, because the best wells had been drilled," said Admiral Permian West.
The company will assess the drilling required, but may defer completion of the wells in the event that prices fall below $50. West stated that the return of investor equity would be the priority, over increasing capital deployment.
"MORE RIGS than Work"
Oilfield services are also feeling the pain. Superior Energy Auctioneers sold equipment last month from Cleveland Lease Services contract well service division, and Lone Star Directional Drilling.
A person with knowledge of the auction stated that large trucks used for hauling fracking equipment and trailers sold at a 30% lower price in August than they did in April.
Terrel Hardin is the president of King Well Service which provides workover rigs to maintain existing production. He said that this year only two to three rigs of his company were being used, as opposed to four or five last year.
Hardin stated that "these prices don't cover the bills and everyone pulls back." SLB, a leading service provider in North America, said in October that it did not expect drilling to pick up in the near future. Halliburton, a rival company, said it would idle its equipment to cut costs. Both companies laid off employees this year.
Unemployment in the area is increasing.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Midland's unemployment rate increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.6% in august. This was a level that the industry last reached in mid-2022, when it was recovering from a demand shock caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Waters, from Tie Specialties, said that "we get people coming in everyday looking for work."
Local economies and small businesses are also feeling the effects of job losses.
D.S. Fabela's Restaurant in Odessa, which is frequented by oilfield employees, is thinning out as workers are laid off, according to manager Dulce Solis.
Yogashri Pradhan, who was laid off for the third time from her industry, decided to start IronLady Energy Advisors as a consultancy on reservoir engineering and production data.
"We are seeing more panic over $60 oil and I believe that a large part of this is due to the rhetoric and administration of, oh we could do it cheaper," said Pradhan who was laid off from Chevron in the month of June.
(source: Reuters)