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Wall Street US yields fall amid uncertainty about Trump and growth; euro gains

The major Wall Street indexes fell on Tuesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq hit a six-week low as Treasury yields plunged amid signs of a slowing U.S. economy and uncertainty about Trump administration policies.

The euro strengthened after the German election results, while European shares fell.

Worries about U.S. Tariffs caused oil prices to fall by 3%.

The market was tense after Wednesday's market closure due to Nvidia’s fourth-quarter results. The release of the Personal Consumption Spending Price Index on Friday, which is monitored by the Federal Reserve to help control inflation, also dominated market attention.

By 2:39 pm, the Nasdaq Composite had fallen 225.96, or 1.17 percent, and the S&P 500 was down 22.15, or 0.37 percent, at 5,961.19, while S&P 500 dropped 22.15, or 0.37% to 5,961.19, ET (1939 GMT).

Investors were temporarily rattled by the order of U.S. president Donald Trump to restrict Chinese investment in strategic U.S. industries such as chipsets, AI and aerospace.

Investors are constantly looking for the smallest of differences to identify investable catalysts. In a recent note, Nicholas Colas said that this phenomenon is favoring non-US stocks.

U.S. Single-family House Prices

Increased in December

The housing market is growing, but the cost of mortgages has increased.

The mood was exacerbated by a weak reading on consumer confidence in the United States.

Will Campernolle, FHN Financial's macro strategist, said Tuesday that "bearish growth sentiment" - perhaps from Friday's poor PMIs or geopolitical concerns - will linger until investors are convinced otherwise. He said that the Treasury coupon auctions scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday would test the strength of the rally. This will be the case at least until Friday's PCE inflation report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 150.19 points or 0.35% to 43,611.40.

The 10-year yield fell 8.3 basis point to 4.31%, while the yield on the 2-year notes, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Fed's, dropped 6.4 basis points.

Shares of European companies

The market closed down 0.2% Tuesday after gains by banks and healthcare companies off-set declines by technology stocks.

Dollar index was impacted by the soft U.S. data, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies.

Due to its high tariff risk, the euro is among the worst performing major currencies against dollars.

Trump's proposed duties on U.S. imported goods could push up inflation in the United States, and his mass firings from government positions could have an impact on the labor market just as the Federal Reserve is looking to reduce interest rates.

The tension between the U.S., Europe and Russia has also increased over Ukraine. How to broker a ceasefire with Russia three years after Moscow invaded its neighbor is a major issue.

Chris Beauchamp is the chief strategist of IG. He says that the market sentiment has been fragile, but volatility has been minimal.

He said: "This is in stark contrast to recent years, when crises seemed to occur one at a moment and you could deal with them as they happened. Now, it seems like 'everything', everywhere at once,"

REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC?

CBOE’s VIX volatility indicator rose to its highest level in a week on Tuesday. However, it has not yet reached the highs of late January.

Beauchamp says there are many reasons to be hopeful.

If you look at the earnings season, everything has gone well. The headlines, and signs of fracture between Europe, and the U.S., don't directly impact... stocks but they make sentiment more frantic.

While negative surprises have increased in the U.S. economy this month. This is due to unwelcome increases in consumer inflation expectations, and most recently a decline in business activity.

The futures markets shows that traders now expect the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in this year. This is up from 40 basis points a week earlier.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that U.S. economic indicators are misleading. He cited interest rate volatility and inflation, as well as job growth in the government sector.

Investors have been questioning whether China's low cost AI model, DeepSeek, is worth the huge investment. A lot will depend on Nvidia’s fourth-quarter results. Chinese retail investors have been pouring money into AI-related stocks on the local market in the last month. This has sent the Hong Kong equity index up to a three-year-high.

U.S. crude oil fell by 2.42%, to $68.99 per barrel. Brent oil futures fell 2.29% to $75.07 per barrel after hitting a record high $2,956.15 per barrel on Monday.

Gold fell to its lowest point in more than a week. Spot gold fell 1.42%, to $2.909.22 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures closed 1.5% lower, at $2.918.80.

Bitcoin pared losses after falling to below $87,000 as traders processed last week's hacking of $1.5 billion in ether from cryptocurrency exchange Bybit.

(source: Reuters)