Latest News

As US data and tariff risks are gauged, stocks edge up while yields fall

As US data and tariff risks are gauged, stocks edge up while yields fall

Benchmark global stock indexes hit record highs on Friday, while U.S. Treasury Yields fell as soft U.S. Data and the recent tariff announcements raised hope that the Federal Reserve could be more aggressive about cutting interest rates. Retail sales fell 0.9% in January, the largest drop since March 2023. This follows a 0.7% rise in December that was upwardly reviewed. It is also well below the 0.1% estimate by economists. Federal Reserve data showed that factory output fell 0.1% in January, below the 0.1% estimate, following a 0.5% decline in December. This was due to a drop in motor vehicle production. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, directed his economic team on Thursday to develop plans for reciprocal duties against every country that taxes American imported goods, increasing the risk of global trade war. However, he did not impose another round of tariffs. Trump warned BRICS nations again on Friday that the United States could impose tariffs if they created their own currency. Investors waited for the latest news from the Munich Security Conference where U.S. vice president JD Vance accused European leader of censoring freedom of speech and failing control immigration on Friday. This drew a harsh rebuke by Germany's defence minister and overshadowed discussions about the war in Ukraine. The meeting between Vance, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and others ended without any news about a deal to supply Ukraine with critical minerals. This is crucial to Ukraine's efforts to win Trump’s support.

It's all about Trump now. The rest is noise. Everyone is focused on 'What will Trump do next and where will his tariff wars go?' Dennis Dick is a trader with Triple D Trading, located in Ontario, Canada. Wall Street's S&P 500 finished roughly unchanged as the tech sector led gains, while consumer staples had the worst performance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 165.35, or 0.37 percent, to 44,546.08; the S&P 500 declined 0.44, or only 0.01% to 6,114.63; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 81.13, or 0.41 percent, to 20,026.77.

The S&P 500 rose 1.47% for the week. The Nasdaq grew 2.58% and the Dow rose 0.55%. The Nasdaq posted its largest weekly percentage gain since December early. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Federal Reserve cut of at least 25, basis points in June has crept up to 51.3% after the markets had priced in a change of 40.3% in the previous session. Dallas Fed President Lorie Login reiterated on Friday her opinion that the U.S. Central Bank should not reduce short-term lending costs if inflation data in future months is lower.

MSCI's global stock index rose 1.73 points (0.20%) to 884.10, after slipping to an intraday record of 885.66 for the second consecutive session. The index is on course for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.24%, but managed to achieve its eighth week of gains. This is its longest streak since a year. Since the beginning of the year, European stocks have performed better than their U.S. equivalents. However, it is still unclear whether this trend will continue.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket) fell by 0.3% to 106.77, after having fallen to a 2-month low of just 106.56. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.28% to $1.0493.

The dollar fell 0.35% against the Japanese yen to 152.26, while the pound rose 0.14% at $1.2583.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 4.7 basis points, to 4.478%. However, it was still on course for a weekly increase after falling two weeks in a row. The oil prices dropped, wiping out earlier gains as the prospects of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine was countered by U.S. tariffs.

U.S. crude settled down to $70.74 per barrel down by 0.77% and Brent settled down to $74.74 per barrel down by 0.37% for the day.

text_section_type="notes">https://www..com/markets/ For Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets, please click on:

(source: Reuters)