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Norway's ruling Labour party wins re-election
Norway's Labour Party minority government will narrowly win its re-election Monday, according to projections from local broadcasters. The vote was dominated by concern over the rising cost of living and wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Gaza. If the official results confirm early readings, then 65-year-old Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere would remain at power as part of a minority coalition that would heavily depend on smaller parties for major legislation, such as fiscal budgets. In order to gain their support, he will likely have to face difficult discussions about issues like tax hikes on the wealthy, oil exploration in the future, and divestments from Israeli companies by Norway's sovereign wealth fund of $2 trillion. The broadcasters NRK, TV2 and the daily VG projected that Stoere's Labour bloc and four smaller parties would win 87 seats. This is more than the required 85 for a majority. The right-wing parties led by Progress, a populist anti-immigration party, and Erna Solberg's Conservatives, a 64-year-old former prime minister, are on course to win 82 seats. Concerns about the turmoil in Ukraine, and an aggressive Russia that shares a border in the Arctic with Norway, have given the left a boost in recent months, after former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined Stoere’s cabinet. Unlike some of their counterparts in Europe, none of the right-wing political parties expected to win seats has sought the support of U.S. president Donald Trump or his movements.
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Gold rallies above $3,600/oz to a record high as Fed rate-cut bets are firm
Gold surged above $3,600 per ounce for the first-time on Monday. It was a record high as weak U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates the following week. As of 2:26 pm EDT (1826 GMT), spot gold was up 1.3% at $3,634.25 an ounce. Bullion reached a new record of $3,646.29. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.7% higher at $3,677.40. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, believes that the yellow metal will continue to rise in price, reaching $3,700-3,730 within a short time. The bullion market could be sustained by the continued softening of the labor market and the expectation that Fed rates will continue to fall into early 2026. The Friday jobs report revealed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in August. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a rate cut of up to a quarter point at the Fed meeting in September. Low rates reduce the cost of holding bullion that does not yield. Gold prices have risen 37% this year after 27% growth in 2024. This is due to dollar weakness, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies and increased global uncertainty. China's central banks extended its gold buying streak to 10 consecutive months in August, according to official data released on Sunday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, on the other hand, are at their lowest level in five months. Investors will now be waiting for the U.S. consumer price data and producer prices to come out on Thursday. This information could provide further insight into Fed policy. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that if the U.S. Dollar and yields continue to fall, the bullish momentum should also continue in gold. Razaqzada said that if the U.S. data showed surprise resilience in the coming week, gold could correct from its elevated levels. Silver spot rose 0.8%, reaching its highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,381.49 and palladium gained a 2.1% increase to $1,132.87.
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Egypt's EGAS signs a preliminary agreement with BP for the drilling of five Mediterranean gas wells
Egypt's Petroleum Ministry announced on Monday that the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, or EGAS, has signed a preliminarily agreement with BP for drilling five new gaswells in Mediterranean Sea. The Ministry's efforts to increase exploration and production are reflected in the memorandum signed by EGAS, a state-owned company. Egypt, once the largest gas exporter in the region, is increasingly importing to meet its domestic demand, as production from old fields declines and new investments are slow. According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative, gas production in May decreased by more than 40% compared to March 2021. The statement said that drilling of the five deep wells at 300 to 1,500 meters is expected to begin next year. The Petroleum Ministry announced on August 30 that it had signed four agreements with international companies worth over $340 million for the exploration of oil and gas in Mediterranean and Nile Delta. Shell, Eni of Italy, and Arcius Energy were among the firms. Arcius Energy is a joint venture owned 51% by BP, and 49% by ADNOC investment arm XRG. (Reporting and editing by Muhammad Al Gebaly, Jaidaa T.A. Haha)
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Databricks expects to generate $4 billion annually in revenue from the surge in AI demand
Databricks, a firm that provides analytics, announced on Monday that it is on track to reach $4 billion in revenue annually, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. This was due to the surge in demand for its artificial-intelligence products. The Series K funding was led by Andreessen Hoowitz, Insight Partner, MGX Thrive Capital, and WCM Investment Management. It raised $1 billion with a valuation of over $100 billion. The proceeds will be used to accelerate the company's AI strategy. This includes expanding its products, launching an entirely new category of operational databases, as well as future AI research and acquisitions. The company, which serves around 15,000 clients, including Shell, a major energy company, and Rivian, an electric vehicle manufacturer, has exceeded a revenue run rate of $4 billion, with AI products exceeding $1 billion. Databricks aims to achieve a net revenue retainment of more than 140%. It also wants more than 650 clients with annual spending exceeding $1 million and a positive free cashflow over the last 12 months. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi said in an interview that the company has received numerous investor inquiries since July's successful $1.22 billion initial public offering of design software firm Figma, another venture capital-backed startup. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi stated in an interview that his firm has received many investor inquiries following the $1.22 billion IPO of Figma, a venture-backed software company, in July. Databricks was founded in 2013 and offers a platform that helps users to ingest, analyse, and build AI apps using complex data. (Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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"It's best I walk alone": Man accused of attempting to kill Trump prepares for his trial
A man accused of trying to assassinate President Donald Trump at his Florida Golf Course last year began his trial Monday. Facing the possibility of life imprisonment, he chose to fire his legal counsel and defend himself. Ryan Routh faces five charges, including attempted assassination. Prosecutors claimed he concealed himself near the sixth hole of Trump International Golf Club, West Palm Beach with a rifle in order to shoot Trump in the final campaign weeks of 2024. According to court documents, a U.S. Secret Service Agent spotted Routh in the treeline and fired, prompting Routh flee before he could fire a shot. Routh has denied all of the charges. The jury selection in the federal court in Fort Pierce began on Monday. It is expected that the trial will provide a detailed account about what prosecutors claim was a second attempt to take Trump's own life within a two-month period. The gunman who shot Trump in the ear in the first attack was killed on the spot. The test will also be how far Routh can take the proceedings to express his views. Routh is a roofing contractor who has a long history of advocating for fragile democracies such as Ukraine and Taiwan. Aileen Cannon of the U.S. district court, who oversees the case in question, rejected Routh’s proposed questions for prospective jurors on Monday, calling them “very off base” and irrelevant to proceedings. Cannon stated that the questions included inquiries about pro-Palestinian activism by students and Trump's support of a U.S. invasion of Greenland. Routh, who fired his public defenders team in July, has used court documents to suggest a "beatdown" session with Trump. He also floated the idea of trading himself for an Iranian or Chinese prisoner and tried unsuccessfully to introduce expert testimony about his "narcissism." Routh will be presenting evidence in his own name, despite the fact that he has no formal training as a lawyer. He is also expected to make opening and closing remarks, interview witnesses, and question them. Two of his former attorneys will be "standby counsel" and ready to give advice when needed. Routh wrote to Cannon that it was absurd to think that a stranger who knows nothing about me could speak for me. "It's best I walk alone." TRUMP APPOINTEE Cannon was also in charge of the criminal case that accused Trump of illegally retaining classified documents. She received widespread criticism and attention for her decision to dismiss the case last year based on the finding that the lead prosecution was illegally appointed. Legal experts say that criminal defendants are entitled to self-representation. However, Routh's gambit adds a new element of uncertainty and risk into the trial. "If his only goal is to get acquitted then his chances will probably go down," said Erica Hashimoto a Georgetown University law professor who has studied the self-representation of criminal cases. If he wants to achieve something else by going to court, representing himself could be the best way to accomplish that. Routh has tried to show the jury that he is not violent by citing his previous writings in which he defended persecuted people and the "common person." Routh, in a 2023 self-published memoir, wrote that he had voted for Trump back in 2016 but was no longer a fan. He viewed the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 as part of an international assault on democracy. Routh's ability to make political or ideological arguments during trial will be severely limited. Both the prosecution and defense agreed in advance that Routh could not argue that his actions were justified or necessary. Cannon has already ruled some of his previous writings are not admissible as evidence. In a recent court order, she warned Routh against using witnesses' testimony as "a tool for calculated chaos." The prosecution plans to show at least one letter Routh allegedly wrote. The letter, addressed to "Dear World," and allegedly left in a box with an acquaintance several months before the incident begins: "This was an assassination try on Donald Trump. I'm sorry I failed." The prosecution will need to prove that Routh had both the intention to kill Trump, and also took significant steps towards doing so. The prosecution alleges that on September 15, 2024 Routh built a "sniper’s nest" with a SKS style rifle and 20 rounds of ammunition, as well as ballistic plates to protect him. Prosecutors have stated that at the time Routh was spotted by the Secret Service, Trump was only a few hundred feet away, near the fifth green of the course. He would have reached the sixth green in about 15 minutes. (Reporting and editing by Scott Malone; David Gregorio, Marguerita Choy, Scott Malone)
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Databricks expects to generate $4 billion annually in revenue from the surge in AI demand
Databricks, a firm that provides analytics, is on track to reach $4 billion in revenue annually, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. This was due to the surge in demand for its AI-based products. The company, which serves around 15,000 clients, including Shell, the energy giant, and Rivian, an electric vehicle maker, has exceeded a revenue run rate of $4 billion, with AI products exceeding $1 billion. The Series K funding was led by Andreessen Hoowitz, Insight Partner, MGX Thrive Capital, and WCM Investment Management. It raised $1 billion with a valuation of over $100 billion. The proceeds will be used to accelerate the company's AI strategy. This includes expanding its products, launching an entirely new category of operational databases, as well as future AI research and acquisitions. Databricks aims to achieve a net revenue retainment of more than 140%. It also wants more than 650 clients with annual spending exceeding $1 million and a positive free cashflow over the last 12 months. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi said in an interview that the company has received numerous investor inquiries since July's successful $1.22 billion initial public offering of design software firm Figma, another venture capital-backed startup. Databricks' CEO Ali Ghodsi stated in an interview that his firm has received many investor inquiries following the $1.22 billion IPO of Figma, a venture capital-backed software company, in July. (Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Brazil's JBS increases cattle tracking in Amazonian State of Para
According to a Monday statement, Brazil's JBS - the world's biggest meat company - has delivered 123 765 ear tags for tracking cattle individually in Para state. This could be a turning point in efforts aimed at halting deforestation of the Amazon. Para adopted a law late in 2023 that requires ranchers to identify their cattle in the state by the end 2026. JBS has said that it will deliver 2,000,000 tags to small ranchers of the state in partnership with The Nature Conservancy. JBS reported that 65,902 of the tags delivered to farmers have been attached to the ears of animals on 89 farms across the state. JBS' Maraba plant was able to process Para cattle for the first ever using individually tracked tags. The state of Para has a herd of about 26 million cattle, which is the same size as Australia's. This makes it a difficult task to track each individual animal. The move could prove to be a pivotal moment in the fight against the destruction of the largest rainforest in the world, since cattle and soybean farming have been the main drivers of deforestation. (Reporting and editing by Ana Mano)
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Gold rallies above $3,600/oz to a record high as Fed rate-cut bets are firm
Gold surged above $3,600 per ounce for the first time Monday, setting a new record high, as weak U.S. employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates the following week. Gold spot rose by 1.3%, to $3,631.66 an ounce at 9:59 am EDT (1349 GMT). Bullion reached a new record of $3,636.69. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose 0.5% to $3670.80. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals and vice president, believes that the yellow metal will continue to rise in price, reaching $3,700-3,730 within the next few months. The bullion market could be sustained by the continued softening of the labor market and the expectation that Fed rates will continue to fall into early 2026. The Friday jobs report revealed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in August. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a 90 percent chance of the Fed cutting rates by a quarter point at its September meeting. Low rates reduce the cost of holding bullion that does not yield. Gold prices have risen 38% this year after rising 27% in 2024. This is due to the dollar's softening, central bank accumulations, dovish monetary policies, and increased global uncertainty. China's central banks extended its gold buying streak to 10 consecutive months in August, according to official data released on Sunday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, on the other hand, are nearing their lowest levels in five months. Investors will now be waiting for the U.S. consumer price data and producer prices to come out on Wednesday. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said that if the U.S. Dollar and yields continue to fall, the bullish momentum should also continue in gold. Razaqzada said that "if U.S. data surprises us in the next few weeks with surprising resilience, gold may correct from its current elevated levels." Silver spot rose 1%, to $41.39 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.7% to 1,382.25 and palladium rose 2.1% to 1134.56.
United States refining margins plunge as fuel stocks climb: Kemp
U.S. oil refineries have been processing petroleum at the fastest rate for the time of year given that before the pandemic, however rising fuel stocks have begun to weigh on crack spreads and likely signal a slowdown ahead.
Refineries processed 17.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude and other feedstocks over the week ending on June 7, the fastest seasonal rate since 2018, according to information from the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).
Refineries were using 95% of their operable capability, up 94% in 2015, and the highest percentage considering that 2019, weekly data from the EIA show.
However intensive processing is producing more gas and diesel than is being utilized locally and exported-- resulting in a persistent accumulation of stocks.
Gasoline stocks had actually climbed to 234 million barrels on June 7 compared with 221 million barrels in 2023 and 218 million in 2022.
Stocks were 1 million barrels (+1% or +0.10 requirement deviations) above the previous 10-year seasonal average, eliminating a. deficit of 6 million barrels (-3% or -0.87 standard deviations). two months previously.
Chartbook: U.S. fuel stocks and fractures
Distillate inventories had reached 123 million barrels. compared to 114 million in 2023 and just 110 million in 2022.
Extract stocks were still 10 million barrels (-8% or. -0.50 basic variances) below the 10-year average however the. deficit had narrowed from 18 million barrels (-13% or -1.09. standard deviations) at the start of March.
Refineries have actually been reacting to relatively high refining. margins however the build-up of stocks has now undermined them. and most likely indicates less mad processing in the weeks. ahead.
The gross margin from turning 3 barrels of crude into 2. barrels of fuel and 1 barrel of diesel, referred to as the 3-2-1. crack spread, has actually averaged $24 per barrel up until now in June down. from $31 in March.
The inflation-adjusted 3-2-1 crack spread is now precisely in. line with the average for the ten years before the pandemic,. suggesting the fuel market is easily supplied.
CYCLONE PREPARATIONS
The Atlantic typhoon season which runs from June to. November is expected to be more active than typical in 2024 as. outcome of conditions throughout the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
In the Atlantic, sea surface area temperatures are currently warmer. than normal for the time of year, creating conditions for a. higher number of more extreme tropical storms, including serious. typhoons.
In the Pacific, El Nino has already faded and forecasters. expect La Nina conditions to form over the second half of the. year, which will likewise promote a more active Atlantic cyclone. season.
Even so, the risk of significant disruption to the significant. refineries on the coast of Texas and Louisiana, where practically. half of the nation's processing capacity is located, stays. low in outright terms.
But the forecast of an active hurricane seasons indicates it. will be reasonably higher than typical, particularly around the most. intense part of the storm season in August and September.
Other things being equivalent, the market needs to carry a little. higher inventories to offset the increased danger of refinery. interruptions.
However inventories can not continue constructing at the recent rate. without putting further down pressure on margins and rates.
TAPPING THE REFINERY BRAKES
Hedge funds and other money supervisors have already. expected fuel markets will be oversupplied, selling futures. and options equivalent to 52 million barrels of gas and 13. million barrels of diesel over the last eight weeks.
In fuel, the net position was cut to just 33 million. barrels (24th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on June 4. from 85 million barrels (88th percentile) on April 9.
In diesel, the fund position had actually been changed into an internet. short of 4 million barrels (24th percentile) from a long of 9. million (41st percentile).
Fund sales have most likely expected, accelerated and. enhanced the down pressure on refinery margins over the. last two months.
Weaker margins will likely cause refineries to draw back. somewhat over the early part of the summer limiting the eventual. stock develop.
Fuel usage in the United States and the rest of the. world has actually so far increased by much less than anticipated in the. second quarter which has contributed to the draw back in. petroleum rates.
OPEC? is forecasting much stronger development in the 3rd. quarter to draw down oil stocks, increase rates and enable. manufacturers to increase output beginning with the 4th quarter.
But there are no indicators of a big increase in fuel. usage yet, which is adding to the down slide in. rates and spreads.
Associated columns:
- Financiers abandon bullish case for U.S. gasoline( May 15,. 2024)
- Eco-friendly fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. intake( May 10, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)