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United States refining margins plunge as fuel stocks climb: Kemp

U.S. oil refineries have been processing petroleum at the fastest rate for the time of year given that before the pandemic, however rising fuel stocks have begun to weigh on crack spreads and likely signal a slowdown ahead.

Refineries processed 17.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude and other feedstocks over the week ending on June 7, the fastest seasonal rate since 2018, according to information from the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).

Refineries were using 95% of their operable capability, up 94% in 2015, and the highest percentage considering that 2019, weekly data from the EIA show.

However intensive processing is producing more gas and diesel than is being utilized locally and exported-- resulting in a persistent accumulation of stocks.

Gasoline stocks had actually climbed to 234 million barrels on June 7 compared with 221 million barrels in 2023 and 218 million in 2022.

Stocks were 1 million barrels (+1% or +0.10 requirement deviations) above the previous 10-year seasonal average, eliminating a. deficit of 6 million barrels (-3% or -0.87 standard deviations). two months previously.

Chartbook: U.S. fuel stocks and fractures

Distillate inventories had reached 123 million barrels. compared to 114 million in 2023 and just 110 million in 2022.

Extract stocks were still 10 million barrels (-8% or. -0.50 basic variances) below the 10-year average however the. deficit had narrowed from 18 million barrels (-13% or -1.09. standard deviations) at the start of March.

Refineries have actually been reacting to relatively high refining. margins however the build-up of stocks has now undermined them. and most likely indicates less mad processing in the weeks. ahead.

The gross margin from turning 3 barrels of crude into 2. barrels of fuel and 1 barrel of diesel, referred to as the 3-2-1. crack spread, has actually averaged $24 per barrel up until now in June down. from $31 in March.

The inflation-adjusted 3-2-1 crack spread is now precisely in. line with the average for the ten years before the pandemic,. suggesting the fuel market is easily supplied.

CYCLONE PREPARATIONS

The Atlantic typhoon season which runs from June to. November is expected to be more active than typical in 2024 as. outcome of conditions throughout the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

In the Atlantic, sea surface area temperatures are currently warmer. than normal for the time of year, creating conditions for a. higher number of more extreme tropical storms, including serious. typhoons.

In the Pacific, El Nino has already faded and forecasters. expect La Nina conditions to form over the second half of the. year, which will likewise promote a more active Atlantic cyclone. season.

Even so, the risk of significant disruption to the significant. refineries on the coast of Texas and Louisiana, where practically. half of the nation's processing capacity is located, stays. low in outright terms.

But the forecast of an active hurricane seasons indicates it. will be reasonably higher than typical, particularly around the most. intense part of the storm season in August and September.

Other things being equivalent, the market needs to carry a little. higher inventories to offset the increased danger of refinery. interruptions.

However inventories can not continue constructing at the recent rate. without putting further down pressure on margins and rates.

TAPPING THE REFINERY BRAKES

Hedge funds and other money supervisors have already. expected fuel markets will be oversupplied, selling futures. and options equivalent to 52 million barrels of gas and 13. million barrels of diesel over the last eight weeks.

In fuel, the net position was cut to just 33 million. barrels (24th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on June 4. from 85 million barrels (88th percentile) on April 9.

In diesel, the fund position had actually been changed into an internet. short of 4 million barrels (24th percentile) from a long of 9. million (41st percentile).

Fund sales have most likely expected, accelerated and. enhanced the down pressure on refinery margins over the. last two months.

Weaker margins will likely cause refineries to draw back. somewhat over the early part of the summer limiting the eventual. stock develop.

Fuel usage in the United States and the rest of the. world has actually so far increased by much less than anticipated in the. second quarter which has contributed to the draw back in. petroleum rates.

OPEC? is forecasting much stronger development in the 3rd. quarter to draw down oil stocks, increase rates and enable. manufacturers to increase output beginning with the 4th quarter.

But there are no indicators of a big increase in fuel. usage yet, which is adding to the down slide in. rates and spreads.

Associated columns:

- Financiers abandon bullish case for U.S. gasoline( May 15,. 2024)

- Eco-friendly fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. intake( May 10, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)