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Iron ore remains above $100/t amid Sino US trade talks, coal slump continues
The price of iron ore futures held above the psychologically important level of $100 per metric ton, as investors watched closely for any signs of progress in the Sino-US trade negotiations. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore contract on Singapore Exchange rose 1.9% to $100.70 a metric ton. The contract for September iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange erased its morning loss and ended daytime trading 0.63% higher, at 798 Yuan ($111.17). The talks between U.S. officials and Chinese officials who met in Stockholm on Monday are expected to continue Tuesday. They will be aimed at resolving long-standing economic disputes. Analysts said that although the two superpowers do not have a deep connection in terms of trade in iron ore and steel, which is its main feedstock, trade frictions may affect demand forecasts in China, a major consumer. Iron ore prices are also influenced by falling arrivals. Data from Mysteel shows that iron ore arrivals at major ports fell 7.6% in a week to 23.2 millions tons. Analysts at Shengda Futures wrote in a report that "the fundamentals of iron ore remain relatively healthy despite falling arrivals, and the resilient hot metal production is supporting prices." The markets also anticipated details about a Chinese Politburo Meeting that will take place by the end of July. This meeting is expected to determine the economic policy of the country for the remainder of the year. The prices of coking coal, coke and other steelmaking ingredients continued to fall for the second consecutive session. They fell by 6.63% and 2.62 %, respectively. Both coal and oil prices had risen in the last week due to the expectation of a possible supply cut. The government was planning to inspect eight major coal production hubs for overproduction. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gains in most steel benchmarks. Rebar gained 1.98%; hot-rolled coil grew 2.01%; wire rod jumped 2.33%, while stainless steel fell 0.12%. $1 = 7.1780 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Janane Venkatraman and Lewis Jackson)
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India's finished steel imports from April to June fell by nearly 30% due to slow shipments from China and Japan
According to preliminary government data reviewed on Tuesday, India's finished-steel imports fell nearly 30% during the first three month of the fiscal year that began in April due to a consistent fall in shipments out of China and Japan. Data showed that the world's second largest crude steel producer imported 1,4 million metric tonnes of finished steel between April and June, a decrease of 28.8% compared to a year ago. The data shows that China's exports fell by 45.8% and those of Japan by 65.2%. The data shows that China exported 0.3 million tonnes of finished steel to India in the same period while Japan exported only 0.2 millions tons. India implemented a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports in April. This is known locally as a "safeguard duty" and was imposed to stop a rush of cheap shipments, mainly from China. South Korea, the largest exporter to India with shipments of 0.5 million tonnes, a 6.5% decline, was the top exporter. India was a net importer in the period with exports falling by 5.1%. The top destination of finished steel exported from India was Belgium, where shipments increased by 40.8%. Exports to Italy fell, but shipments to the United States and Spain increased. India's largest exports are galvanised coils or sheets, plain or corrugated. The domestic crude steel production increased by 11.2% to 40.6 million tonnes. The consumption of finished steel was 38.3 millions tons, an increase of 7.9%. In its report, the Indian government stated that domestic rebars prices in India were on the decline as the market sentiment was weak due to a sluggish economy and the arrival of the monsoon. (Reporting by Neha Arora; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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According to Ukraine, 16 people were killed in the Russian attack on a penal colony near Zaporizhzhia.
The regional Ukrainian military and Zaporizhzhia’s governor confirmed that overnight, Russian airstrikes on a prison colony in Zaporizhzhia (a frontline region in southwest Ukraine) killed 16 people and wounded at least 35 others. Ivan Fedorov of Zaporizhzhia, in a Telegram message, stated that buildings at the correctional facility were destroyed and homes nearby were also damaged. Andriy Yerimak, the chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has condemned these strikes as "another crime committed by Russia". Since the beginning of the war, which Russia began with a full scale invasion of Ukraine in the year 2022, Moscow forces have attacked Zaporizhzhia using drones. missiles, and aerial bombs. Early in the war, Russia unilaterally declared its annexation. Kyiv, along with its Western allies, called it an illegal land grab. Fedorov claimed that Russian forces carried out eight airstrikes on the Zaporizhzhia area, using high explosive aerial bombs. The report of Fedorov could not be independently verified. Russia has not yet responded. Both sides deny that they have targeted civilians, but the majority of the victims in this conflict are Ukrainians. Reporting by Lidia Kelley in Melbourne, Editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Raju Gopikrishnan
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Ukraine claims 16 dead and 35 injured in Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia
The regional Ukrainian military and Zaporizhzhia’s governor confirmed on Tuesday that Russia’s overnight strikes in the frontline region Zaporizhzhia, located in southwest Ukraine, killed 16 people and injured 35 others at a correctional institution. Ivan Fedorov of Zaporizhzhia, in a Telegram message, stated that buildings at the correctional facility were destroyed and homes nearby were also damaged. Since the beginning of the war, which Russia began with an invasion of Ukraine, in 2022, the Russian forces have attacked Zaporizhzhia using drones. Early in the war, Russia unilaterally declared its annexation. Kyiv, along with its Western allies, called it an illegal land grab. Fedorov claimed that Russian forces carried out eight airstrikes on the Zaporizhzhia area, using reportedly high explosive aerial bombs. We could not independently verify Ivanov’s report. Russia has not yet responded. Both sides deny that they have targeted civilians, but thousands of civilians, mostly Ukrainians, have been killed during the conflict.
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. ESSILORLUXOTTICA : The Franco-Italian group of eyewear and optical lens has published a H1 adjusted operating profit at 2,53 billion euros. LVMH/REMY/PERNOD : On Monday, the French Federation of Wine and Spirits Exporters (FEVS) said that the deal between the European Union & the United States would confirm the duty-free sale of spirits. REXEL: Rexel has reported an EBITA adjusted for H1 of 563.5 million Euros. VICAT: Vicat has announced that its net income for the first half of 2018 was 102 million Euros. It also adjusted its EBITDA forecast for 2025 to reflect a growth between +2% and +5% on a like-for-like basis. Pan-European market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones ............... Wall Street Report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ London report ........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... Survey of global bourse outlook ......... European Asset Allocation........................ News in a glance Top News ............. Equities.............. Main Oil Report ........... Main currency report .....
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China increases exports of refined fuels, as margins increase: Russell
Refiners are taking advantage of higher profit margins to boost China's exports. Kpler's commodity analysts have compiled data that shows the shipment of middle and lighter distillates in July will be 26.63 millions barrels or 859,000 barrels a day. The data show that this figure is higher than the 796,000 bpd of June, and it's the highest level since March 2024 when the 1.06m bpd was recorded. China's refiners are able to increase production due to their spare capacity. They can also take advantage of the rising margins on refined fuels such as gasoil which is a building block for jet kerosene and diesel. The crack spread or profit margin for producing 10 ppm gasoline in Singapore was $20.43 per barrel on Monday. This is up from $21.00 the previous day. The margin has fallen from the 16-month peak of $22.85 per barrel on July 18 but is still 56% above the lowest price of this year, $13.05 a barrel, which was set on March 25, 2015. Kpler predicts that China's gasoil imports will reach 6.22 million barrels by July, up from 3.56 million barrels last month. This is the highest forecast since June 2024. LSEG Oil Research's data is slightly more optimistic, with gasoil exported at 6.55 millions barrels in July, which is more than twice the 3.13 million barrels recorded in June. Kpler estimates that China's exports for other middle distillates such as jet fuel rose by 9.59 million barrels in July. This is up from 8.65 millions in June, and represents the highest level since January. More to Come? China can also increase its shipments as the refiners have still unfilled export quotas. The total export quotas that Beijing has granted to refiners are 45 million metric tonnes. According to official data, the exports of refined products in the first half 2025 were 27,19 million tons. This is a 9.7% decline from the same period in 2024. Official data released on July 15 showed that China's refineries have increased their output. Throughput rose 8.5% to 15,15 million bpd in June, according to the official data. It is possible that refiners were trying to take advantage rising fuel prices while processing crude oil purchased when prices of oil were on the decline at the beginning of the second quarter. China also exports more gasoline. LSEG estimates that July exports were 6.7 million barrels. This is up from 5.7 in June, and the highest since March. Gasoline in Singapore: Profit margins for fuel The rise in the price of diesel has been less than that for crude oil. On Monday, it ended at $7.43 per barrel, up from $7.41. The margin has fallen from the high of the year, which was $11.83 per barrel on May 9; however, it is still twice as much as the low of only $3.68 on January 21. The current price of refined fuels will encourage China to export more in the coming months. If new European Union sanctions against Russian fuel exports result in a shift of flows around globe, this may further support the case. The EU has banned imports of refined Russian products. This will have a major impact on refiners in India who had been purchasing Russian oil at a discount and exporting fuels both to Europe and Asia. It will be easier to identify which refineries in China do not use Russian crude oil and can therefore still export to Europe. Presently, very few Chinese refined products reach Europe. However, this could change if Indian refiners were forced to find new markets outside of Europe and European buyers forced to search for new suppliers. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Morning Bid Europe-Remembering tariffs' downsides
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The Asian markets are quietly picking up after the U.S./EU Tariff Party turned out to be a failure. You felt relieved that only half of your house was destroyed. At least they didn't burn down the whole house. The euro has a slight firmer future and the dollar is steady at just below $1.1600. It was not surprising that the euro fell so quickly, given the crowded long euro/short-dollar trade. And it is suspected that speculators are soon going to sell the dollar. In the near future, U.S. consumer will pay a minimum of 15 percent on all imports. This tax will reduce demand and profits at home while reducing export earnings around the world. Beggar-thy-neighbour policies are so called for a good reason. It's naive to think that these "deals" will guarantee a period in which everything is certain. Look at how Trump gave Russia a new deadline of 10-12 days for a ceasefire in Ukraine after setting a 50-day deadline earlier this month. This didn't seem to be planned in any way. Trump said this off-the-cuff during a press conference at his Scottish golf club. Who's to say that a deadline like this can't be changed at whim? Trump knows how trade and tariffs dominate the news cycle around the world. He's not going to give that up any time soon. The talks with China are scheduled to continue today in Stockholm and everyone assumes that the deadline for an accord will be extended another 90 days. It is a happy coincidence that this will give Trump time to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, and claim another record-breaking deal. Wall St is still in its own world, relying on the positive results of megacaps to justify valuations that are at their highest levels since the 1990s. Meta and Microsoft will report on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon are scheduled to follow the next day. Today, a number of European companies will also be reporting their earnings. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. Data on U.S. job openings, the June trade balance, and Conference Board consumer sentiment Fed's two day meeting begins
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BW Energy Hires Deepsea Mira Rig for Drilling Ops off Namibia
BW Energy, together with NAMCOR E&P, has contracted the Deepsea Mira semi-submersible rig for the drilling of the Kharas appraisal well on the Kudu license, offshore Namibia.The drilling operation in the Orange Basin is scheduled for the second half of 2025.The agreement is part of a rig-sharing arrangement previously announced by the rig’s operator, Northern Ocean, with Rhino Resources.The contract, entered into by BW Kudu, provides access to an in-country rig and an experienced services team with a strong track record in the Orange Basin, supported by a high level of local content.BW Energy is the operator of the Kudu production licence (PPL003) with a 95% working interest.NAMCOR E&P, a subsidiary of the national oil company of Namibia, holds the remaining 5% carried interest.Built in 2019, the Deepsea Mira is a 6th generation dynamically positioned/anchor-moored semi-submersible drilling rig of Moss Maritime CS60E design. It is designed to operate in both benign and harsh environments, with a maximum operational water depth of 3000 meters.The drilling rig is owned by Northern Ocean and managed by the Norwegian drilling firm Odfjell Drilling.
United States refining margins plunge as fuel stocks climb: Kemp
U.S. oil refineries have been processing petroleum at the fastest rate for the time of year given that before the pandemic, however rising fuel stocks have begun to weigh on crack spreads and likely signal a slowdown ahead.
Refineries processed 17.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude and other feedstocks over the week ending on June 7, the fastest seasonal rate since 2018, according to information from the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).
Refineries were using 95% of their operable capability, up 94% in 2015, and the highest percentage considering that 2019, weekly data from the EIA show.
However intensive processing is producing more gas and diesel than is being utilized locally and exported-- resulting in a persistent accumulation of stocks.
Gasoline stocks had actually climbed to 234 million barrels on June 7 compared with 221 million barrels in 2023 and 218 million in 2022.
Stocks were 1 million barrels (+1% or +0.10 requirement deviations) above the previous 10-year seasonal average, eliminating a. deficit of 6 million barrels (-3% or -0.87 standard deviations). two months previously.
Chartbook: U.S. fuel stocks and fractures
Distillate inventories had reached 123 million barrels. compared to 114 million in 2023 and just 110 million in 2022.
Extract stocks were still 10 million barrels (-8% or. -0.50 basic variances) below the 10-year average however the. deficit had narrowed from 18 million barrels (-13% or -1.09. standard deviations) at the start of March.
Refineries have actually been reacting to relatively high refining. margins however the build-up of stocks has now undermined them. and most likely indicates less mad processing in the weeks. ahead.
The gross margin from turning 3 barrels of crude into 2. barrels of fuel and 1 barrel of diesel, referred to as the 3-2-1. crack spread, has actually averaged $24 per barrel up until now in June down. from $31 in March.
The inflation-adjusted 3-2-1 crack spread is now precisely in. line with the average for the ten years before the pandemic,. suggesting the fuel market is easily supplied.
CYCLONE PREPARATIONS
The Atlantic typhoon season which runs from June to. November is expected to be more active than typical in 2024 as. outcome of conditions throughout the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
In the Atlantic, sea surface area temperatures are currently warmer. than normal for the time of year, creating conditions for a. higher number of more extreme tropical storms, including serious. typhoons.
In the Pacific, El Nino has already faded and forecasters. expect La Nina conditions to form over the second half of the. year, which will likewise promote a more active Atlantic cyclone. season.
Even so, the risk of significant disruption to the significant. refineries on the coast of Texas and Louisiana, where practically. half of the nation's processing capacity is located, stays. low in outright terms.
But the forecast of an active hurricane seasons indicates it. will be reasonably higher than typical, particularly around the most. intense part of the storm season in August and September.
Other things being equivalent, the market needs to carry a little. higher inventories to offset the increased danger of refinery. interruptions.
However inventories can not continue constructing at the recent rate. without putting further down pressure on margins and rates.
TAPPING THE REFINERY BRAKES
Hedge funds and other money supervisors have already. expected fuel markets will be oversupplied, selling futures. and options equivalent to 52 million barrels of gas and 13. million barrels of diesel over the last eight weeks.
In fuel, the net position was cut to just 33 million. barrels (24th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on June 4. from 85 million barrels (88th percentile) on April 9.
In diesel, the fund position had actually been changed into an internet. short of 4 million barrels (24th percentile) from a long of 9. million (41st percentile).
Fund sales have most likely expected, accelerated and. enhanced the down pressure on refinery margins over the. last two months.
Weaker margins will likely cause refineries to draw back. somewhat over the early part of the summer limiting the eventual. stock develop.
Fuel usage in the United States and the rest of the. world has actually so far increased by much less than anticipated in the. second quarter which has contributed to the draw back in. petroleum rates.
OPEC? is forecasting much stronger development in the 3rd. quarter to draw down oil stocks, increase rates and enable. manufacturers to increase output beginning with the 4th quarter.
But there are no indicators of a big increase in fuel. usage yet, which is adding to the down slide in. rates and spreads.
Associated columns:
- Financiers abandon bullish case for U.S. gasoline( May 15,. 2024)
- Eco-friendly fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. intake( May 10, 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)