Latest News

Brazil's most deadly police raid places Lula in political trouble

Luiz inacio Lula da Sol was left stunned by the most deadly police operation Brazil has ever seen. He is now trying to deal with the political fallout as he tries to reconcile growing international concern over human rights violations and public support for an aggressive crackdown on crime. This divide highlights a broader problem facing Lula. He is hoping to be re-elected next year, and has devoted much of his political capital towards an "ecological transform" of Brazil's economic system, capped off by the U.N. Climate Conference COP30, which starts this week. However, most Brazilians seem more concerned with public security.

At least 121 people, including four officers of the Rio de Janeiro police force, died in the raid on October 28. United Nations officials condemned the level of violence and called for independent investigations to be conducted into any possible illegal killings. Since then, activists have staged protests as more bodies are identified.

Lula called the raid "disastrous" during his appearance at COP30 on Tuesday in Belem. He said that the judge had ordered arrest warrants, and not mass murders. "And yet, there was a massive killing."

Lula was on his way back from Malaysia in a plane without internet when the raid occurred. According to a source in the presidential palace, Lula has kept a low-profile since then. His administration is "walking on eggs" according one source.

A second source stated that "the government cannot take responsibility for this but it can't also support the massacre."

In a report submitted to the Supreme Court by the Rio State government, it defended the operation claiming that the security forces had used "proportional" force and "no deaths have been reported outside of the narco terrorist organization," suggesting that police actions were targeted.

Support for Police Killings

New polls suggest that despite the brutality of the operation, there is widespread support in the country for the police action.

AtlasIntel's survey of Brazilians, published on Friday, showed that 55% supported the operation. Residents of Rio State were even more supportive at 62%. The results highlighted the political difficulties facing the leftist President, whose administration is struggling to meet voter demands for stricter security policies.

Adeilton da Silva, 65, a Rio resident who works as a security guard in Copacabana, said, "A good criminal will be dead." "If it happened every week, criminals would be terrified." Brazil's political left has seized the opportunity to capitalize on this incident. Claudio Castro, the conservative ally who had ordered the operation and was a close ally to former President Jair Bolsonaro, has gained 10 points of approval following the incident, according to a separate Genial/Quaest survey conducted on Sunday.

Ibaneis, the governor of the Federal District also supports Castro. In an interview he stated that it was astonishing that the organized crime had not only seized Rio de Janeiro, but also other major cities and capitals of state across Brazil. This is despite Brazil producing very little drugs and not manufacturing heavy weapons. Right-wing politicians and political analysts draw parallels between the popularity of President Nayib Bukele's anti-gang policy curtailing due processes in El Salvador, as well as that of his anti-gang policy.

In an interview on Monday, Romeu ZEMA, the conservative governor from Minas Gerais said that "El Salvador's experiences demonstrate that meaningful changes are possible, but they depend on having a willing government to take action."

Zema and five other governors congratulated Castro and the Rio de Janeiro police force two days after the raid. They said that the slain had the opportunity to surrender and give themselves up. Only those who did not want to did so.

Fear of more violence

The Genial/Quaest survey found that despite Castro's portrayal of the raid, it did not do much to reassure the Rio public. A majority of Rio residents reported feeling less safe.

The result is more violence, said Paulo Henrique Machado Cruz, a 54-year old parking attendant from Rio. "You do not solve the problem; you only make it worse." You scare children and destroy families.

The Supreme Court of Brazil may give in to the demands made by left-wing politicians for an investigation into police violence in Rio, which would also lead to a federal probe of this deadly operation.

Sources close Lula are concerned that the incident could undermine his recent gains ahead of the elections in 2026. The fallout is likely to continue, as the investigations unfold.

According to the most recent Datafolha survey, Lula's approval rating increased to 33%, its highest level this year. Meanwhile, disapproval dropped to 38%. The Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes led a high-level police operation meeting in Rio on Monday. He was joined by the Governor Castro, officials from law enforcement, and representatives of the public prosecutors and defenders offices.

Moraes oversees a landmark case at Brazil's Supreme Federal Court that challenges the use of force by Rio police in Brazil's informal shantytowns, known as favelas. Luciana de Janiero in Rio de Janiero; Lisandra Paraguassu, Brasilia; and Lucinda Elliot in Montevideo. Additional reporting by Ricardo Brito in Brasilia. Brad Haynes, Michael Learmonth and Brad Haynes edited the story.

(source: Reuters)