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London copper slips due to US tariff woes, soft dollar limits fall
London copper fell on Tuesday due to concerns about the U.S. trade war and tariff policy affecting demand. However, a weaker dollar cushioned the decline. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange decreased by 0.4%, to $9.494.5 per metric ton as of 0155 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract fell by 1.1%, to 77610 yuan (10,694.80 dollars) per ton. Last week, the benchmark LME copper price reached a record high of $9 739 after U.S. president Donald Trump exempted automakers for a month from tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico. Trump refused to comment Sunday on the negative reaction of the market to his on and off again tariff actions against major U.S. trading partner, or whether the anxieties relating to his erratic policies could push a softening U.S. economy into recession. The longer-term effects of altered trade routes, and any retaliation against tariffs, could be economic shocks and uncertainty for investment, and eventually headwinds for suites. This is especially true if tensions between the U.S.A. and China continue to rise. Here, you can see that the health of China has become more uncertain than it was during the previous tariff period. China consumes around half of the global copper supply annually. The yen, however, was the safe haven of choice for investors on Tuesday. It traded at near five-month-highs amid fears that a slowdown in U.S. economic growth could be due to tariffs. This has rattled U.S. stock markets and the dollar. The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.7% to 2,674 per ton. Zinc also declined, falling 0.6% to 2,840, and nickel, which fell 0.8% to 16,425. Lead fell 0.6% to $2,037 while tin dropped 0.5% at $32,500. SHFE aluminium fell 0.8%, to 20,700 Yuan per ton. Zinc lost 0.9%, to 23,640 Yuan. Lead gained 0.2% at 17,455 Yuan. Nickel fell 0.2% to 131 500 yuan, and tin dropped 0.3% to 261,940.
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Asian stocks fall as the market selloff intensifies on US growth fears
Asian stocks followed Wall Street's lead and plunged sharply on Monday as fears mounted that a wide range of trade wars could dent U.S. growth and cause a recession. This led investors to seek refuge in the Japanese yen, a safe haven currency. Investors' concerns over a potential economic slowdown have been exacerbated since President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News, talked about a "period" of transition while declining to say whether his tariffs will result in a U.S. economy recession. These comments and concerns shook the risk-taking sentiment and sent stocks tumbling, weighing down on the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields. S&P 500 dropped 2.7% Monday, the biggest drop of this year. Nasdaq fell 4.0% on Monday, its largest percentage drop in a single day since September 2022. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures fell 1% during Asian hours on Monday. In Asia it was a sea red, with Japan's Nikkei index and Taiwan's stocks falling about 3%. They reached their lowest levels since September. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped more than 1%. Even Chinese stocks that have had a great year were not immune from the negative mood. The blue-chip index dropped about 1% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.5%. The European futures market also indicated a lower opening, with DAX Futures down by 0.8%, and Eurostoxx Futures down by 0.9%, suggesting that the selloff still had room to run. Prashant Nnewnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rate strategist at TD Securities said that the consensus was that Trump would be swayed if stocks plummeted. The markets have understood that the administration intends to remove the bandage. Tariffs and recession could be the remedy to disinflation, and get that 10-year yield down. "For now, it's controlled demolition." The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 5 basis points during Asian hours on February 2, after falling 10 bps the previous day, which was the biggest daily drop in nearly a month. The yield on the two-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 5 basis points to a new five-month-low. LSEG data shows that traders now price in 88 bps easing by the Fed for this year. This is up from 75 bps Monday. The Japanese yen rose 0.3% versus the dollar. The yen was last seen at 146.65 against the dollar, after reaching its highest level for five months in earlier session. In 2025, the yen will be up 7% compared to the dollar. It also strengthened, and hovered near the three-month high reached on Monday. In early trading, it last purchased 0.87755 per US dollar. Market sentiment has quickly shifted from optimism following the election to serious recession concerns, fuelled by policy uncertainty and a continuous stream of weak economic data, said Tony Sycamore. Trump said that the possibility of reciprocal tariffs against Canadian lumber and dairy could be imminent. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was hovering near a 4-month low. The index is down over 4% this year. Oil prices dropped for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as traders worried that U.S. Tariffs could slow down economies in other countries and reduce energy demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ increased its supply. Brent futures dropped 0.65% to $68.83 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures declined 0.82% to $55.49 per barrel. (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Singapore.
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Australia's Brickworks falls as North America operations hit causes investor anxiety
Brickworks shares fell on Tuesday, after the Australian company warned of a reduction in its interim results. The firm cited ongoing revenue pressures for its North American operations as a result of challenging market conditions during the last six months. The stock dropped as much as 10% to A$22.92 - its lowest level since Sept. 2023. Brickworks, a company in which Washington H Soul Pattinson owns a stake of nearly 43%, was one of the biggest decliners among the ASX 200, which fell 1.3% for the day. The company expects to record a noncash impairment charge in the amount of A$55,000,000 ($34.5 Million) for its North America operations when it releases its half-year financial results. Brickworks warned about difficult trading conditions at its annual general meeting held in November 2024. Brickworks reported in a Tuesday filing that "these challenging conditions continued throughout the remainder of 1H25 and drove a 13% decrease in revenue as compared to the previous corresponding period." In order to manage excess inventory the company had to close several plants in the period. This led to increased manufacturing costs as well as a decrease in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) for the first six months. Brickworks' outlook was impacted by the continued uncertainty about when the market would recover. It cited labour shortages, high material costs, rising interest rates and geopolitical instability as factors. The company has therefore moderated its expectations for short- and medium-term sales. Jessica Amir is a market strategist for trading platform Moomoo. She said that the demand for the company's products has slowed down due to the fact that interest rates are staying the same in the U.S. and tariffs have increased their price. "(Brickworks') dividend history is strong and this appears to be a trend that will continue. "But the road ahead could be bumpy," added she. The company was unable to provide an estimate of its net profit after taxes, as it would include the investment earnings from Washington H Soul Pattinson's 25.65% share. (1 Australian dollar = 1.5924 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, Nikita Maria Jio from Bengaluru)
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Oil prices fall as fears about tariffs grow
The oil prices dropped for a second consecutive day on early Tuesday, amid fears that U.S. Tariffs on Canada Mexico and China will slow down economies in the world. This could also hurt energy demand as OPEC+ increases its supply. Brent futures dropped 29 cents or 0.42% to $68.99 a bar at 0016 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures declined 36 cents or 0.55% to $65.67 a bar. Donald Trump's protectionist policy has roiled global markets. Trump has imposed and then delayed tariffs on the biggest oil suppliers of his country, Canada and Mexico. He also raised duties on Chinese products. China and Canada responded with their own tariffs. Trump has said that a "period" of transition is likely for the U.S. economy, but he declined to say whether it could be a recession due to stock market worries about his tariffs. Daniel Hynes is a senior commodity strategist with ANZ. He said that Trump's remarks triggered a selling wave as investors began pricing in the risk of weakened growth in demand. All three major U.S. indices suffered sharp drops on Monday. The S&P 500 experienced its largest one-day decline since December 18, and the Nasdaq dropped 4.0%, which was its biggest percentage drop in a single day since September 2022. Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, said that Trump will not ease off on his tariffs against Mexico Canada and China. Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Premier, said that the OPEC+ Group had agreed to increase oil production starting in April. However, the group could change its mind if market imbalances were found. A preliminary poll on Monday showed that crude oil stocks in the U.S. were likely to have increased last week while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to be down. The poll was conducted in advance of reports due from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT), and the Energy Information Administration (the statistical arm of U.S. Department of Energy) at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT), on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in New York)
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Andy Home: US tariffs threaten to bring boom times for copper traders
Physical copper traders are benefiting from the uncertainty created by the unpredictable tariffs of U.S. president Donald Trump. Threatened U.S. duties on copper imports have opened up an opportunity of a lifetime for those who are in the business to move physical metals around the world. CME copper contracts are now trading at a substantial premium over the London Metal Exchange contract (LME), opening up an enormous import arbitrage opportunity. The rush to get physical copper to the United States before the deadline for tariffs has a knock-on effect on global trading patterns. Investors are hesitant, as they fear the impact of a trade war on future copper prices. Tariff turbulence Since Trump's investigation of copper imports on national-security grounds, traders have tried to price in the possibility of U.S. Tariffs. Tariff trade is represented by the CME premium, which is the price of an international LME over the price that has been cleared through U.S. Customs. It's also proving to be an extremely volatile trade, a reflection of the White House’s contradictory speech. In his address to Congress, Trump stated that he had "imposed a 25 percent duty on foreign aluminum and copper, as well as lumber and steel". This was a surprise to the copper industry, as the Section 232 investigation of imports had only been announced last month. The CME premium for London briefly soared to over $1,000 per ton on this comment, before retreating as the consensus concluded that Trump's mention was likely just a slip-up. COPPER RUSSH The arbitrage between CME-LME copper prices is not a concern for those who profit from regional differences in pricing. The CME premium, based on London in May, closed around $800 per tonne last week, meaning that the shipment of metals to the U.S. has already been a profitable business. Tariffs will make it even more profitable. It is important to obtain as much metal as possible, and then clear it through U.S. Customs prior to any changes in import duty. In the last two week, 115,800 tonnes of metal were cancelled at the London Metal Exchange in preparation for the physical loading-out. The LME warehouse system's volume of copper on warrant has dropped to a new low of 147.875 tons, a drop of nine months. This metal is unlikely to be shipped directly to the United States due the low ratio of LME stock that meets the CME contract. What is grabbed from LME warehouses will more than likely be traded with producers and consumers for CME-deliverable brand names from Chile, Mexico, and Peru. DISLOCATIONS It's an indication that the availability of copper is decreasing as it is being shipped directly to the United States or rerouted there. As stocks fall, it is not surprising that LME spreads have decreased. The cash-to-3-months period Last week, I flirted with backwardation again for the first since June of last year. This has in turn shifted the arbitrage rate between London and Shanghai, giving Chinese smelters a chance to export at a profit. The global physical copper market is likely to be affected by potential U.S. Tariffs. Trade houses that have the market power to capitalize on supply chain shifts will reap the benefits of the regional dislocations. FUND MANAGERS FEEL FEAR OF TREAD The investment community has been largely ignored while physical traders spend their time searching the world for the best type of copper to send to the United States. The CME copper contract has almost equal allocations between bulls and a bears. This results in an 8 721 contract marginal collective net-long. Not only is there a price gap between the physical and futures market for copper, but also an engagement gap. Investors tend to use "Doctor Copper" to make macro-trades, using the metal to speculate on global industrial growth. The bigger picture of the economy is bleak as the U.S. government increases tariffs on Chinese products and threatens to impose reciprocal tariffs with all trading partners. A survey of North American economists has revealed that the risk of recession is increasing. Fund managers are cautious about the prospects of higher copper prices for the remainder of the year. They're also reluctant to short a market which is showing signs of tightness - albeit a highly regionalised one. While Trump's tariff turmoil confuses the futures markets, the copper trade in physical form is making money now. The author is a columnist at
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Couche-Tard expects Seven & i to be approved by regulators in a straightforward manner
Alimentation Couche-Tard, a Canadian company, said Tuesday that it was confident of obtaining the regulatory approvals needed in the United States to purchase Japan's Seven & i Holdings. The latter had said that antitrust laws would prevent any transaction. It said that it was also frustrated by Seven & i’s lack of engagement, despite the fact that both companies have started working together to find a way to get regulatory approval. Stephen Dacus of Seven & i, the CEO who was appointed just last week, reiterated the fact that there are significant regulatory obstacles to a merger. In a press release, Couche-Tard stated that it had submitted a revised proposal non-binding in January at Seven & i’s request. It was confident about its financing plans which included a mix of debt and equity. The statement stated that "Our proposal provides shareholders with a clear value economic, unlike 7&i’s plan which was repeatedly revised and announced last week." Seven & i didn't immediately respond to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing, Stephen Coates and Anton Bridge)
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Woodside's investment decision in Louisiana LNG could slip into Q2, according to CEO
Meg O'Neill, the CEO of Woodside LNG Australia, said on Monday that the company may delay a final decision on the Louisiana plant's liquefied gas project until the second quarter 2025 if talks to sell the half of the project continue. Woodside is looking to sell up to 50% of the project. The company has been reported to be in discussions with several buyers, including Tokyo Gas and Japan's JERA. O'Neill stated in an interview conducted on the sidelines an energy conference held in Houston, "We want confidence in our partners and a sell-down that is adequate." The goal is to have it ready by the end of the first quarter. O'Neill refused to identify the parties in talks with Woodside. Woodside previously stated that it would make a decision on the investment by the end the first quarter for the construction of the first phase of a 27.6 million ton/year facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Estimates place the cost of construction at $16 billion. O'Neill stated that there is a strong interest in the Bechtel project, as it has been fully permitted and is under an Engineering, Procurement and Construction(EPC)contract. O'Neill said that in phase 1, Woodside would retain 8 million tonnes a year for its trading portfolio, as it seeks to get away from only selling directly to customers. O'Neill said, "Trading has become a more important part of our company, but we also see that as the portfolio grows, there are greater opportunities to create value in this part of the business." Woodside LNG has offered LNG customers shorter contracts with higher rates than the standard 20-year offtake agreement. O'Neill stated that this presents opportunities for her business. Woodside is fine with this. "Some customers might prefer a shorter period, which is perfectly acceptable." She said that in some respects, this gives us the opportunity to gain new customers, as we move forward. We offer greater flexibility. "I think it's a way to differentiate us." She said that Woodside would continue to purchase LNG cargoes through Commonwealth LNG and Mexico Pacific LNG. Both companies are building LNG projects in Louisiana, Mexico and to export U.S. Natural Gas. Woodside, which is aware that both projects are slowing down, is focusing on its own project. She said that Woodside doesn't plan to invest in gas production for the Louisiana LNG plant, because it can purchase from multiple gas producers from different regions and buy gas from them. O'Neill said that Woodside is working on engineering issues in order to make a final decision about the pipeline which will transport gas to Louisiana LNG. TRINIDAD CHALLENGES Woodside's CEO said that it was "very clear" the financial terms were quite difficult to develop a resource as large and complex as its deep-water Calypso find in Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad has been pressuring Woodside and others to find gas to fill the gap for its Atlantic LNG flagship facility and petrochemicals industry. O'Neill said that the Trinidad government was very receptive in having a discussion about finding a way forward. (Reporting and editing by Simon Webb, Neil Fullick, and Curtis Williams from Houston)
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COP30 President cites limitations of global climate summits
The model of gathering world leaders under complex rules to negotiate agreements is beginning to show its limitations, according to the president of the next summit, Brazilian diplomat Andre Correa do Lago. In a letter published on Monday, he outlined his vision for the COP30 Summit in the Amazonian city of Belem. He said climate negotiators should be critical of themselves and deal with the "outside perception" that talks have lasted for more than three decades without much progress. He wrote: "We must move beyond negotiations and help put what we have agreed into practice." Correa do lago, at a press event, said that the UNFCCC summits, which are held to monitor compliance with the Paris Agreement of 2015, are currently the best venue for climate talks, but they have limitations. He claimed that despite the recommendations made, the organization has no control over the organizations responsible for implementing them. Climate change has been further hindered by global setbacks. U.S. president Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, and he blocked funds for Ukraine to help it in its war against Russia. This forced Europe to increase defense spending using resources that could have otherwise been used to invest in climate solutions. Correa do Lago, Brazil's Minister of Environment, said that the country will encourage other countries to take advantage of the G20 or the International Monetary Fund to press for action against global warming. He said that Brazil also wants to give other actors more voice, including civil society groups, Indigenous communities and indigenous communities. Correa do Lago said to reporters that he will call two international meetings before COP30 with global leaders to discuss countries' commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses. Only 13 countries submitted their pledges by the February deadline. Reporting by Manuela Andréoni and Lisandra paraguassu, Editing by Brad Haynes & Howard Goller
Bloomberg: Interior Secretary says US should restart coal plants that have been shuttered
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Bloomberg News in a Monday video interview that the United States should restart coal-fired plants that have been shut down under President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency.
Burgum, the chair of Trump's National Energy Dominance Council in Houston, spoke in an interview at the CERAWeek Energy Conference in Houston.
"I believe that as part of President Trump's national energy emergency, we have to keep all plants open. "We need to restart any coal plants that were shut down," he added.
At the dawn of the 20th century, coal accounted for more than half the U.S. electricity. According to the Energy Information Administration, it has dropped to less than 20 percent.
Burgum added that the U.S. can also keep open existing plants by reducing environmental regulations implemented by previous administrations.
He said, "We can stop the death of regulation." We can start by examining the legality of certain rules that were imposed on these industries.
In an email, the Interior Department stated that it is committed to "revitalizing coal through the reduction in regulatory barriers and promotion of energy independence." (CERAWeek Newsroom in Houston, edited by Nia William)
(source: Reuters)