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Oil bulls lack conviction about sustainability of greater rates: Kemp

Financiers increased their direct exposure to Brent as the dispute in between Iran and Israel intensified but there was offering across the rest of the petroleum intricate amid doubts about the sustainability of higher prices.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors sold the equivalent of 23 million barrels in the six essential petroleum futures and options agreements over the 7 days ending on April 16.

Purchases of Brent (+31 million barrels) were more than balanced out by sales of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-35 million), U.S. fuel (-5 million), U.S. diesel (-5 million) and European gas oil (-9 million).

Brent is most exposed to production and shipping disturbances as a result of conflict in the Middle East and fund supervisors improved their net position to 335 million barrels (75th. percentile for all weeks considering that 2013).

However much of this extra direct exposure appears to have actually rotated. out from WTI, where funds sold at the fastest rate for 10 weeks. and the net position was cut to just 183 million barrels. ( 31st percentile).

While fund managers had ended up being highly bullish on Brent. they were progressively bearish about prospects for WTI.

In the premier NYMEX WTI agreement, there was evidence of a. fresh cycle of short selling, which had started 4 weeks. earlier when rates climbed up above $80 per barrel.

Fund supervisors had actually improved short positions comparable to 71. million barrels by April 16, up from 23 million on March 19.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

In refined fuels, previous bullishness about a continued. exhaustion of stocks and a further rise in costs had also. started to recede away.

The hedge fund community is broadly bullish about the. outlook for both crude and fuel prices but not with much. conviction.

Bullish long positions outnumber bearish short ones by a. ratio of 3.60:1 which remains in just the 42nd percentile for all. weeks considering that 2013.

There are upside threats from Middle East dispute, production. restraint by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies, and a cyclical. financial upswing in the United States

But these are offset by downside dangers from strong growth in. non-OPEC output, relentless inflation, higher-for-longer. interest rates, and a desultory economic healing in Europe and. China.

Escalating dispute in between Israel and Iran has masked a. slight degeneration of investor sentiment about the outlook for. oil prices in recent weeks.

When the dispute appeared to have actually been consisted of, with. Israel's minimal retaliation against Iran, costs have. pulled back.

U.S. GAS

Investors turned more bearish towards U.S. gas as. the seasonal inventory surplus continued to swell and stocks. climbed up close to a record high for the time of year.

Hedge funds and other money supervisors sold the equivalent of. 173 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two crucial futures. and choices agreements linked to rates at Henry Hub in. Louisiana.

The rate of selling was the fastest for eight weeks given that. mid-February, before a few of the largest producers announced. they would be scaling back drilling and production.

As an outcome, funds held a net brief position of 483 bcf. ( 19th percentile for all weeks considering that 2010) versus a net short of. 310 bcf (25th percentile) the week in the past.

Working gas inventories totaled up to 2,333 bcf on April 12,. the greatest for the time of year since 2016 and before that. 2012.

Inventories were a huge 641 bcf (+38% or +1.38 requirement. deviations) above the previous ten-year average and the surplus. programs no sign up until now of narrowing in spite of rates near to. multi-decade lows in genuine terms.

In December, the current month for which information is readily available,. power generators paid the lowest seasonal prices for gas since. 1974, after changing for inflation. Ever since, the genuine. acquisition cost has most likely fallen even further.

But the warmest winter on record has depressed usage. of both gas and electricity, ensuring that stocks have. remained remarkably high and postponing any rebound in. prices.

Associated columns:

- Oil traders sanguine about threats from Israel-Iran conflict. ( April 18, 2024)

- Oil funds were bullish even before Iran launched missiles. ( April 15, 2024)

- Financiers bet on additional rise in U.S. fuel prices. ( April 10, 2024)

- Oil funds turn bullish as Mideast dispute magnifies. ( April 8, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)