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China's iron ore exports continue to rise as storm clouds gather, Russell
Iron ore is the best performing commodity this year, with a price of over $100 per metric ton. This is despite signs that China's steel industry has been slowing down. The Singapore Exchange's most traded iron ore contract ended Wednesday at $101.71 per ton, down from $102.74 at its previous close. The rolling front-month contracts have traded within a narrow range this year. A high of $107.81 per ton was reached on February 12, and a low $93.35 per ton was achieved on July 1. This stability is due to the fact that China imports 75% of all seaborne volumes. China's imports in the first six months of this year were 592.2 millions tons, down by 3% compared to the same period last year. The June arrivals reached 105.95 millions tons, which is the highest level since December of last year. Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates 101.32 millions tons for China's imports in July. Iron ore imports from China have been relatively resilient, and this has helped to keep prices around $100 so far in the year. Market participants are now asking themselves if they can maintain this level in light of the signals coming from other iron ore and metal sectors. China, which is responsible for producing just over half the world's total steel, saw its output fall 9.2% from June 2024 to 83.18 millions tons. The first half of 2025 saw a 3% decline in production, to 514.83 millions tons. The outlook for the second part of the year also isn't very rosy, especially if the annual steel production stays around the informal goal of 1 billion tonnes, as it has been for the last five years. China's output of steel is unlikely to grow in the second half this year compared to the first. It may even decline, particularly if exports fall as importers impose higher duties on Chinese products. EXPORTS SLIPPERY Exports of steel product fell 8.5% in June compared to May. However, a good start to the year saw shipments rise 9.2% to 58.15 millions tons. The second half of the year is likely to see a decline in China's exports, which will put further pressure on this sector. Iron ore is becoming increasingly unattractive as China struggles to stabilize its economy and manufacturers are faced with uncertainty due to U.S. Tariffs and fierce domestic competition. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles to see if there is any room for iron ore inventory to grow. The week ending July 25 saw a drop of 131.05 millions tons compared to 151.8 millions the previous week. Kpler data shows that iron ore imports outside China are also weak. They dropped to 136.56 millions tons in July, their lowest level since April. Kpler predicts that Europe's seaborne imports of iron ore will fall to 6,53 million tonnes in July, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Japan is the second largest iron ore buyer in the world. Arrivals are expected to reach a record high of 7,73 million tons for July, a three-month-high. According to Kpler, South Korea is expected to import 4,71 million tons of soybeans in July. This is the lowest since February 2017. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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PBF Energy partially restarts Martinez refinery, posts smaller-than-expected quarterly loss
PBF Energy announced on Thursday that its Martinez refinery is partially operational. The remaining units will run at reduced capacity while repairs are completed. A full restart of all the remaining units is planned for the end of 2025. A fire had broken out at the 156,400-barrel-per-day (bpd) Martinez refinery on February 1, which had impacted operations. The company announced that the refinery had begun to produce limited quantities of jet fuel, gasoline and intermediates. PBF Energy anticipates that the total throughput will be between 85,000 and 105,000 bpd during the limited period of operations. The company also reported smaller-than-estimated loss for the second quarter, as margins recovered. The top U.S. refining companies were expected to report higher profits in the third quarter of this year, rebounding from losses the previous quarter as diesel margins increased earnings. Valero Energy and Phillips 66, two of the largest rivals in the US, exceeded Wall Street expectations on account of higher refining margins. PBF Energy’s consolidated gross refinery margin, excluding items of special interest, was $8.38 per barrel in the second quarter. This compares to $8.12 per barrel a year earlier. The company's crude and feedstocks output fell from 921 300 bpd to 839 100 bpd in the quarter reported, compared with 921 300 bpd one year ago. The current quarter is expected to have a total throughput between 865,000 and 915,000 BPD. PBF lost $1.03 on an adjusted basis per share in the second quarter. This compares to estimates of a loss of $1.10 per share. (Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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PG&E's profits miss estimates due to higher maintenance and operating costs
PG&E Corp's shares fell 1.4% on Thursday in premarket trading after the utility company missed Wall Street expectations for its second-quarter profits. The utility was hit by a rise in operating and maintenance expenses. The company's total operating and maintenance expenses rose by 3.7%, to $2.86 Billion. It also said that wildfire claims, net recoveries, and the utility’s wildfire fund expenditure increased from one year ago. PG&E is responsible for a number of wildfires in California, including the most deadly. It has made investments to improve its grid's reliability. The utility stated that it would build 700 miles underground power lines, and upgrade 500 miles of wildfire safety systems between 2025-2026. PG&E’s total operating revenue for the quarter fell to $5.90billion, down from $5.99billion a year ago. PG&E, the parent company of Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), is an energy company serving 16 million Californians in a 70,000 square mile service area. In the second quarter, the company added 3,300 new electric grid customers. According to LSEG, PG&E's adjusted quarterly profit was 31 cents per share. This is 1 cent less than the Wall Street expectation. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Sumit S. Saha; Editing by Shailesh K. Kuber)
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U.S. Copper tumbles on news of tariffs, LME declines due to tepid Demand
The U.S. Copper prices fell the most in a single day on record, as investors scrambled for positions following a surprise decision by U.S. president Donald Trump to exempt widely traded refined metals from 50% import duties. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said that the impact of Trump's announcement was "seismic". U.S. Comex September copper futures fell 22%, to $4.37 per lb or $9,681 per metric ton by 1130 GMT. They had reached a record high of $5.92 just a week earlier. After Trump announced in February that he was investigating copper tariffs, U.S. copper prices rose and large volumes of copper were sent to the U.S. to take advantage. Details released late Wednesday indicated that 50% tariffs will be applied to semifinished copper products excluding copper cathodes, input materials like ores and. The major copper exchanges trade cathodes - the product of processing copper. "I imagine it would be a disaster for many people," said Dan Smith. You spent all that money to get stuff to America, and now it will just sit there. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell by 0.7% to $9,631 per tonne. Comex's slide has flipped the premium it had over LME prices, which were trading at around $3,000 per ton last Thursday, into a $4 discount. LME inventories could be further boosted if LME prices are set at a healthy premium over Comex. The price of has already increased by about 50% in the last month. JP Morgan stated in a report that "LME stock could rise much faster on direct deliveries from U.S. Copper to U.S. LME Warehouses if there are price differentials." Smith stated that copper prices will likely remain low in the near term due to seasonal demand. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 1.3%, to 78.040 yuan (10,850.95 USD) per ton. Data showing that the manufacturing activity in China, the world's largest metal consumer, shrank for a 4th month also weighed on prices. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell 0.7% to 2,583 per ton. Zinc fell by 0.8%, to $2763.50; nickel dropped 0.4%, to $14960; and lead, down 0.9%, at $1973.50. Tin, however, declined 2.2%, to $32,630. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Cenovus Energy, a Canadian company, has cut its production forecast for 2025.
Cenovus Energy, a Canadian oil and natural gas producer, reduced its forecast for its upstream production in the full year on Thursday. It cited the temporary shutdown of its Rush Lake facility. The company responded to an early-May steam leak from a casing rupture in an injection well, resulting in the temporary shutdown of Rush Lake's facilities in central-west Saskatchewan. Cenovus expects upstream production in 2025 to range between 805,000 and 825,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day, as opposed to the 805,000 to 845,000 previously projected. The total upstream production for the second quarter was 765.900 boepd. This is down from 800.800 boepd one year ago. This is due to planned turnarounds, scheduled maintenance at offshore installations and short-term impacts of wildfire activity in Christina Lake. In May, wildfires in Alberta disrupted the operations of several oil companies, including Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and MEG Energy. This led to temporary closures and evacuations. Cenovus total downstream throughput was 665.800 barrels per days for the third quarter, compared to 622.700 bpd one year earlier. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices fell during the quarter of April-June compared to a year ago, due to a weaker global demand, increased supply by OPEC+ and market volatility caused by tariffs. Cenovus, based in Calgary, Alberta, posted a net profit of C$851 (614.57) million, or 45 Canadian Cents per share during the quarter ended June 30. This compares to C$1.0 billion or 53 Canadian Cents per share a year ago. ($1 = 1.3847 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Katha Kalia in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
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The Russian rouble is rising against the dollar following a fall due to Trump's threats
The Russian rouble gained ground against the dollar Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to impose additional sanctions if Russia did not make progress on a peaceful solution in Ukraine. The rouble increased by 0.6% at 1115 GMT, to 80.55 per dollar. It is now close to the 80-mark it crossed the other way on July 28. Analysts from Bank of Saint Petersburg said that the currency market had already priced sanctions into its price. The rouble fell 4.3% between July 24 and July 30, to 81.9 dollars, in response to Trump's threats as well as the central bank's rate reduction last week. The traders, who spoke under condition of anonymity said that the higher oil prices prompted currency sales by Russian companies exporting goods, which helped to meet short-term currency speculative demand. The central bank also said that the weakening imports and continued currency intervention by the central banks, along with regular monthly forex sales of exporters to pay for their rouble denominated taxes, supported the rouble. Analysts believe the rouble to be overvalued, and they expect it will weaken slowly towards the end the year. The rouble gained 0.5% against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded foreign currency in Russia. It now stands at 11.14. (Reporting and editing by Giles Elgood; Gleb Bryanski)
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HF Sinclair's profit beats expectations in the second quarter on higher refining rates
Refiner HF Sinclair surpassed Wall Street expectations for the second-quarter profits on Thursday, as higher refining rates helped offset lower volumes. Its shares rose about 1% to $43.80 before market opening. Top U.S. refiners were expected to post higher second-quarter profits, rebounding from first-quarter losses as stronger-than-expected diesel margins lifted earnings. The higher margins allowed competitors such as Valero Energy, Phillips 66 and others to surpass Wall Street expectations. Fuel manufacturers have experienced an unexpected increase in profits in recent months. This is a relief to those who saw their earnings fall from the 2022 highs, due to a rebound in demand following the pandemic and disruptions in supply after Russia's invasion in Ukraine. The adjusted refinery margin per barrel of the company was $16.50, an increase of about 46% over a year ago. The company's adjusted margin for the mid-continent region increased by about 85% to $15.52 a barrel. The higher margins in the quarter helped offset the lower throughput volume, which was down 2.4% to 660,640 barges per day compared to a year ago, and refinery utilization fell from 93.6% to 90.8%. In a press release, the company explained that the lower volumes were due in part to turnaround activities in its Tulsa refinery and Parco refinery during the quarter reported. LSEG data shows that HF Sinclair's adjusted profit for the three-month period ended June 30 was $1.70 per common share. This compares to analysts' average estimates of $1.02 per common share. Tanay Dhumal, Bengaluru. Pooja Dasai, editing.
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Oil prices are affected by rising OPEC+ supplies and tariff uncertainty
A poll on Thursday showed that analysts are maintaining their oil price predictions for 2025 largely unchanged, due to the rising OPEC+ production and continued uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs. Analysts said that the continued threat of disruption to supply due to war in Ukraine and Middle East provides some support. In the last two week's poll, 37 economists and analysts were surveyed. They predicted that Brent crude will average $67.84 a barrel in 2025 and that U.S. oil would hover around $64.61, which is in line with estimates from last month of $67.86 a barrel and $64.51. The poll showed that Brent prices are likely to fall next year and reach $62,98 in the second half of 2026. According to LSEG, Brent and WTI prices have averaged around $70.60 each and $67.46 respectively so far this year. Investors are focused on the ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations and August 1 deadline. Markets anticipate that new tariffs by the Trump administration could slow global growth, and therefore oil demand. The uncertainty surrounding President Trump's plans to impose tariffs on goods and services affects the markets as well as demand. The OPEC+ alliance is also a source of increased supply. The mismatch between demand and supply remains," said Thomas Wybierek at NORD/LB. In April, eight members of OPEC+ (which includes Russia) began increasing production. Sources say that the eight countries are expected to hold a separate gathering on August 3, and will likely agree to an additional 548,000 bpd for September. Analysts polled by predict that global oil demand will grow by over 797,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. This is compared to an estimate of 700,000 by the International Energy Agency. Most analysts have noted, however, that oil demand may weaken in 2025's fourth quarter due to a slowdown in the economy and seasonal factors. At the same time, OPEC+ will be expected to pump even more oil into the market. This could lead to an oversupply. Moutaz Alaghlibi is a senior energy economist with ABN AMRO. He said, "We expect to see prices decrease in the second halves of 2025 due to both a slower growth in demand and an increase in supply." Participants to the poll also noted that the geopolitical premium associated with the Russia-Ukraine War and Middle East tensions will likely persist until 2025. Cyrus De La Rubia is the chief economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank. He said that geopolitical factors would continue to support the oil price on the margin and help to keep Brent at higher $60s than lower $60s by 2026.
Scientists say that EU climate goals are at risk because ailing forests absorb less carbon dioxide
Scientists warned that the damage to European forests caused by increased logging, fires, droughts and pests reduces their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. This puts European Union emission targets at risk.
The European Union is committed to achieving net zero emissions in 2050. This target also includes the expectation of forests to absorb hundreds of millions tonnes of CO2 and store them in soil and trees, compensating for pollution from industries.
This assumption is no longer valid. According to a study led by scientists at the EU's Joint Research Centre, its independent science-research service, the amount of CO2 Europe’s forests removed annually from the atmosphere was almost a third less in 2020-2022 than it was in 2010-2014.
Nature published a paper that stated that forests in the latter period absorbed approximately 332 million net tons of CO2 equivalent each year. Recent data from EU-countries suggest that the decline is even more pronounced.
The paper stated that "this trend, coupled with the declining climate resilient of European forests indicates that the EU’s climate targets which depend on an increasing carbon sink could be at risk."
The land and forest sector in Europe offsets around 6 percent of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions. This is 2% less than the EU's estimate of what it will take to achieve climate goals. The gap is expected to grow by 2030.
Agustin Rubio, professor of soil science and ecology at the Polytechnic University of Madrid said that it would be "wishful" thinking to rely solely on forests to achieve climate targets.
He said that while forests can be helpful, they should not be given a specific number to balance carbon budgets.
These findings will be a headache for EU government officials who are currently negotiating a legally binding 2040 climate goal. This target is intended to offset the pollution from industries that cannot be eliminated by using forests.
Some have already warned that this will not be possible.
Last week, Sweden's Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari asked a question at a press conference. "What can we do about factors we as countries or governments cannot control, like forest fires and drought?"
The carbon stored in forests is being depleted by over-harvesting and climate-change-driven wildfires, droughts and pest outbreaks.
The paper stated that some of these risks could be managed, for example by reducing intensive logging or planting more tree species. This may increase CO2 storage, and help forests to withstand extreme climates and pests.
(source: Reuters)