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McGeever: Investors are hearing Powell clearly because Treasury yields have plunged.

The decline in Treasury yields against the backdrop of record stock prices, tight spreads on credit and persistent inflation suggest that investors have accepted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's view that policy is driven by employment rather than inflation.

There's even a danger that a feedback loop could take hold where labor market worries depress yields and exacerbating concerns that the economy is slowing. This, in turn, could maintain downward pressure on the yields.

CPI inflation, a rare indicator of economic growth, will be released on Friday to investors who have been deprived of official data for three weeks due to the government shutdown. It's just not what they wanted.

The report due on Friday is expected to reveal that the core annual inflation rate remained at 3.1% for September. This is more than a point higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Since nearly five years, the annual core CPI is at 3% or more almost every month.

Bond market will likely shrug this off. Last week, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since August 2022. This reflects investors' beliefs that the Fed would cut rates again next weekend, in December and even into next year. The 10-year yield has fallen below 4.00% and reached its lowest closing daily level in over a year.

Even if the inflation rate is on the higher side, it's unlikely that this will cause a spike in yields.

ASSESSING THE FRAGILIOUS LABOR MARK

Investors have filled in the blanks with their own doomsday scenarios, as there were no official economic statistics during the three-week shutdown of the government.

The slump in employment growth is what they have been wallowing over. The dramatic decline in job creation, which has been mostly offset by the shrinking labor pool until now, is alarming.

Goldman Sachs economists outlined on Monday five reasons for the rapid decline in job creation: a slowdown of immigration, a reduction in government hiring and funds, adoption of artificial-intelligence technology; tariffs and trade uncertainty as well as costs related to tariffs; and macroeconomic risk.

The underlying trend in payroll growth is now 25,000 per month, 125,000 less than the projections made in January. This is also below the "breakeven pace" of job growth required to stabilize unemployment, which was estimated at 75,000.

This is on the higher side of estimates for breakeven. Anton Cheremukhin of the Dallas Fed estimates it at 30,000. This is down from 250,000 just two years ago.

A low level of break-even job growth can help keep the unemployment rate down, but masks an even greater fragility on the labor market. Net job growth can quickly turn into job losses if the economy deteriorates.

MESSAGE IN BARREL

The Fed is well aware of this danger. Chair Powell indicated last month that fear of a rapid deterioration of the labor market was the main reason for the decision to continue cutting interest rates, even when inflation exceeded the 2% target.

Investors and the Fed may both have other reasons for looking past the inflation rate that is still high.

One is the signals from the oil markets. The link between the crude oil price and inflation may be weaker now, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.

Brent crude is near $60 per barrel, and oil prices are at a five-month low. This is down about 15% compared to the same time last year.

The majority of energy analysts, such as those at the International Energy Agency (IEA), predict a persistent imbalance in supply and demand for the upcoming year. This is due to both increased production and weakened demand.

If Eurasia Group analysts have it right, the glut could drive prices down to $55 per barrel by the end this year. This would be a 5-year low.

Oil prices that are moderate have been exerting downward pressure on the inflation rate almost all year. Although cheaper crude oil won't help inflation reach the Fed's target of 2%, it can explain why investors and the Fed have turned their attention away from inflation towards the deteriorating labor market.

(source: Reuters)