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Netflix and gold stocks fall as Gold continues to decline
On Wednesday, gold prices fell again, just a day after it had experienced its biggest single-day decline in five years. Most major stock indices also declined, with Netflix's shares falling after disappointing outlook. Investors booked profits, and gold, which was one of the best performing trades for the year, fell. The price of gold is still on track to have its best year since 1979's oil crisis. It has risen more than 50% this year. Spot gold dropped 1.49%, to $4.062.39 per ounce. In afternoon trading, shares of Netflix fell about 10% and Wall Street's major indexes plunged sharply. Tesla's earnings will be released after the close of trading, kicking off the earnings season for the Magnificent 7 group of megacap companies. Tesla shares are down around 2.5%. Investors have also taken note of developments in the world of trade. reported According to three U.S. officials and a U.S. government official, the Trump administration has been considering a plan that would curb software-powered exports from China ranging from laptops to jet engine to punish Beijing for its latest round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Oliver Pursche is the senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, located in Westport, Connecticut. He said that given the gains and sharp rally we have made in the past year, especially since April 1, combined with concerns about future economic growth, and the lack of data because of the government shutdown, "there's no need to move materially in either direction." But maybe, "you're taking some profits, you're doing some rebalancing," he added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 392.08 points or 0.84% to 46,529.77. The S&P 500 declined 67.23 or 1.01% to 6,667.43. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 385.72 or 1.69% to 22,567.94. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 7.29 points or 0.73% to 987.56. The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.18%. However, London stocks rose for the third day in a row as investors bet more on interest rate reductions from the Bank of England following data showing inflation remained steady. The blue-chip FTSE 100 rose 0.9%. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds fell, but the market remained range-bound. As the U.S. shutdown entered its 22nd day without a resolution in sight, the U.S. Treasury rates dropped. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped by 1 basis point to 3.953% from 3.963% at late Tuesday. Investors have priced in almost a full 25 basis-point cut to the Federal Reserve's rate when it meets next week. Due to the shutdown, there are no economic statistics from the United States. This could leave policymakers in a blindingly dark meeting. They may also be divided on which risks should receive the most attention. The yen increased against the dollar. According to sources, the new prime minister Sanae Takaichi has been preparing a stimulus package that will likely exceed last year's $139.19 billion (13.9 trillion yen) in order to help families combat inflation. Next week, the Bank of Japan will also meet. Like the ECB of Europe, it is expected that the central bank will maintain its current rate. The dollar index measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The dollar fell by 0.14%, to 98.84. The euro rose 0.15% to $1.1615. The dollar fell 0.18% against the Japanese yen to 151.66. The oil prices rose. U.S. crude oil rose by 2.25%, to $58.53 per barrel. Brent was up 2.05% for the day at $62.58 a barrel.
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Brazil keeps $4 billion after partial victory on Tupi Field dispute
The Solicitor General's Office announced on Wednesday that Brazil had won a partial win in an international dispute over the Tupi oilfield, against a Petrobras-Shell-Petrogal consortium. This allowed the country to retain tax payments of 22.2 billion Reais ($4.11billion) and keep the money. Arbitration court of the International Chamber of Commerce is mediating the dispute between Brazil's oil regulator ANP and the International Chamber of Commerce over the tax regulations that govern the size of the field. The court's decision is a slight defeat for Brazil. It also determined that compensation can be paid in other forms than cash payments in the future if the amount of compensation is higher by 30% than the quarterly deposits since 2019, when the federal court ruled to the government's benefit. Shell declined to make a comment. Petrobras (which owns a 65% share in the consortium) did not respond immediately to a comment request. Tupi is Brazil's national animal. highest Producing field with more than 1 million barrels equivalent of oil per day. The consortium claims that Tupi includes Cernambi as well. However, the government views them as a single large field whose oil revenue is taxed at a higher rate.
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Gold continues to fall as investors take profits before US inflation data
Investors booked profits before the U.S. key inflation data that is due this week, which will determine whether gold prices are still rising or falling. As of 01:42 pm, spot gold was down by 1.7%, at $4,054.34 an ounce. ET (1742 GMT) after reaching as high as $4,161.17 in earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures for December settled at $4,065.40 an ounce, a 1.1% decrease. Gold prices are at multiple record highs this year and have gained 57%. This is due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Prices dropped 5.3% on the Tuesday after hitting a record-high of $4,381.21 during the previous session. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. The 21-day moving median at $4,005 is a technical support for gold. The core inflation rate is expected to remain at 3.1% for September, according to Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report. This report was delayed because of the U.S. Government shutdown. Investors are almost fully pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Federal Reserve meeting next week. In low-interest-rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, tends benefit. In the meantime, Russia announced on Wednesday that they were still preparing for an upcoming summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Investors also await clarity regarding the potential meeting next week between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. "We maintain a bullish outlook for gold and silver into 2026, and following a much-needed correction/consolidation, traders will likely pause for thought before concluding the developments that drove the historic rallies this year has not gone away," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a note. Silver spot fell 1.6%, to $47.95 an ounce. It fell 7.1% on Monday. Palladium increased 0.1%, to $1 409 80, while platinum gained 4.5%, to $1 620.83.
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Orange Polska announces a worse-than expected Q3 profit decrease
Orange Polska reported a 10% worse than expected decline in its net profit for the third quarter due to increased finance costs. However, it confirmed its guidance for core earnings and revenue. The third quarter net profit was 228 million Zlotys (63 million dollars). The analysts polled expected a net profit of 250 million zlotys. The Polish division of France's Orange attributed the drop in profit to increased net finance costs after it purchased a 5G licence. Why it's important Orange Polska, with a market capitalisation of 12.20 billion zlotys (approximately $9.04 billion zlotys), is the biggest listed telecoms in Poland. By the Numbers The third-quarter revenue increased 9.3% on an annual basis to 3,33 billion zlotys. Core earnings (EBITDAaL), however, grew by 2.9% to $899 million, due to cost control and strong direct margins. The company added 108,000 new mobile customers during the quarter. KEY QUOTES "We are happy that customer net additions have exceeded 100,000 for the first few years, particularly in mobile (...)." In a press statement, CEO Liudmila Climac said. She added, "The results achieved in the last nine-months give us high confidence to reach this year's guidelines." (Reporting and editing by Matt Scuffham; Marta Maciag)
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Gold continues to fall as investors take profits before US inflation data
Investors booked profits before the U.S. key inflation data that is due this week, which will determine whether gold prices are still rising or falling. As of 11:19 am, spot gold was down by 2%, at $4,038.89 an ounce. After reaching as high as $4,161.17 in earlier sessions, ET (1519 GMT) was the next session. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 1.3%, to $4055.40 an ounce. Gold prices are at multiple record highs this year and have gained 54%. This is due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Prices dropped 5.3% on the Tuesday after hitting a record-high of $4,381.21 during the previous session. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. The 21-day moving median at $4,005 is a technical support for gold. The core inflation rate is expected to remain at 3.1% for September, according to Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report. This report was delayed because of the U.S. Government shutdown. Investors are almost fully pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points at the Federal Reserve meeting next week. In low-interest-rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, tends benefit. In the meantime, Russia announced on Wednesday that they were still preparing for an upcoming summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Investors also await clarity regarding the potential meeting next week between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. "We maintain a bullish outlook for gold and silver into 2026, and following a much-needed correction/consolidation, traders will likely pause for thought before concluding the developments that drove the historic rallies this year has not gone away," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a note. Silver spot fell 1.3%, to $48.12 an ounce. It fell 7.1% on Monday. Palladium, which is also known as platinum, rose by 0.1% to $1,409.45, while platinum fell 0.3%.
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EU to set price controls on new carbon market
In a letter to the European Union's climate chief, it was revealed that the EU is working on measures to control the prices of its new carbon market. This is in response to concerns from governments about the possibility that the scheme to reduce emissions could lead to higher fuel costs. Policy is to be implemented in 2027 to charge for the planet-heating emission produced by transport and heating fuels. This will encourage people to switch to cleaner heating systems and electric vehicles. The revenue from the scheme will be used to help people pay their bills, subvention electric cars and make energy-saving renovations in homes. Some governments are concerned that the measure could stoke citizen opposition to climate policies if perceived as a way to increase their bills. This year, a group of 19 countries, including the Czech Republic and Germany, asked Brussels to implement stricter price controls. In a response to the requests, EU climate commissioner Wopke H. Hoekstra wrote: "I share your concerns about the uncertainty of future price levels in ETS2 and the price volatility therein. The new EU Carbon Market is designed to release extra permits into the market if the price of CO2 reaches 45 euros. This will help lower prices. Proposal to DOUBLE the number of permits released Hoekstra stated that the Commission would propose to double the number of permits issued in this scenario, potentially reaching up to 80 millions per year in the years 2027-2028-2029. The letter, dated 21 October, stated that "this will more effectively address unwarranted prices rises and improve the market confidence, which are key for planning decarbonisation investment." The Commission will propose to launch carbon permits auctions in 2026 to give governments funds to jump-start investments that help people switch to cleaner technologies. The Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala welcomed the plans on Wednesday, but he said that he wished Brussels would go further and delay launching the carbon market. Leaders of EU countries will meet on Thursday to discuss the bloc's 2040 climate goal. They will focus on the funding and policies needed to help businesses and citizens achieve the target. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond; Additional reporting by Jan Lopatka & Jason Hovet)
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Belgium considers energy limits to power data centres that are consuming a lot of electricity as AI demand increases
The Belgian grid operator said it could limit the amount of electricity allocated to data centres in order to protect other industrial users. This was due to a surge in energy-intensive AI facilities. According to the reforms proposed by Elia, data centers would be put in a different category, allowing grid capacity to specifically be allocated for them, within a certain limit. The operator added that this would allow for flexible connections in cases where grid congestion may limit access. As major tech companies spend billions on AI and data centres, nations around the globe scramble to meet the sudden energy demand required to operate the buildings. This is expected to push power consumption to new records over the next two-years. Elia reported that in Belgium, data centre requests have increased nine-fold from 2022. The capacity reserved for 2034 is already more than twice the 8 terawatt hours envisioned by national grid development plans. The report said that "such volumes were not expected during the development of various grid development scenarios in Belgium's electric network," and stressed the need to stop speculative development which is unlikely to materialise by blocking grid capacity. Mathieu Bhet, Minister of Energy in France, told the Parliament earlier this week that the federal grid development plan 2028-2038 will address the evolution of data centres consumption. He said Tuesday that he would pay special attention to the issue during the approval of the plan. Google, the U.S. technology giant, plans to invest $5.80 billion in Belgium to expand its data centres campuses and support its AI strategies. (Reporting and editing by MuvijaM; Alban Kacher)
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Netflix and stocks are mostly down as gold prices continue to fall
Gold prices fell again on Wednesday. This comes a day after gold spot experienced its biggest single-day decline in five years. Major stock indexes were mostly down, with Netflix shares falling after disappointing outlook. Investors booked profits, and gold, which was one of the best performing trades for the year, fell. The price of gold is still on track to have its best year since 1979's oil crisis. It has risen more than 50% this year. Last week, spot gold fell 1.73% to $4,052.69 per ounce. Netflix shares were down by more than 9% at the opening of trading. Wall Street's major three indexes were also lower. Investors will be waiting for Tesla's results, which are expected to kick-off the earnings season of the Magnificent 7 group of megacap stock. Tesla shares fell about 1%. We've been seeing a lot more volatility on the markets in recent months. "We've seen a lot of volatility in the markets lately. He said, "We're in the earnings season and that means uncertainty." Tariff issues still exist. The Middle East war is still a major issue. "We try to focus on the companies themselves and their performance." Russia said Wednesday that it is still preparing for the potential summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 118.69, or 0.25 percent, to 46.806.05, while the S&P 500 declined 22.73, or 0.33 percent, to 6,713.39, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 165.07, or 0.70% to 22,791.98. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.63 points or 0.26% to 922.22. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.07%. Investors increased their bets that the Bank of England would cut interest rates after data revealed unexpectedly stable inflation. The blue-chip FTSE 100 rose 1.1%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes increased after two consecutive sessions of falling, but the market remained range bound as the U.S. Government shutdown entered its 22nd day without a resolution in sight. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 1.1 basis points from late Tuesday to 3.974%. Investors have priced in an almost full 25-basis point rate cut. Due to the shutdown, policymakers may be left blind during the meeting. This is not ideal as they are divided on which risks should receive the most attention. Trump rejected a Tuesday request from top Democratic lawmakers that they meet until the U.S. shutdown, which has been ongoing for three weeks, ends. The dollar was barely changed. According to sources, the new prime minister Sanae Takaichi has been preparing a stimulus package that will likely exceed last year's $192.19 billion (13.9 trillion yen) in order to help families combat inflation. Next week, the Bank of Japan will also meet. Like the ECB of Europe, it is expected that the central bank will maintain its current rate. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) fell by 0.01%, while the euro rose 0.01%, reaching $1.16. The dollar gained 0.01% against the yen to reach 151.94. The price of oil rose today, with U.S. Crude up 2.45% to $58.64 per barrel and Brent up 2.15% at $62.64 a barrel. (Reporting and editing by Mark Potter and Peter Graff; Additional reporting from Marc Jones in London.
McGeever: Investors are hearing Powell clearly because Treasury yields have plunged.
The decline in Treasury yields against the backdrop of record stock prices, tight spreads on credit and persistent inflation suggest that investors have accepted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's view that policy is driven by employment rather than inflation.
There's even a danger that a feedback loop could take hold where labor market worries depress yields and exacerbating concerns that the economy is slowing. This, in turn, could maintain downward pressure on the yields.
CPI inflation, a rare indicator of economic growth, will be released on Friday to investors who have been deprived of official data for three weeks due to the government shutdown. It's just not what they wanted.
The report due on Friday is expected to reveal that the core annual inflation rate remained at 3.1% for September. This is more than a point higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Since nearly five years, the annual core CPI is at 3% or more almost every month.
Bond market will likely shrug this off. Last week, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level since August 2022. This reflects investors' beliefs that the Fed would cut rates again next weekend, in December and even into next year. The 10-year yield has fallen below 4.00% and reached its lowest closing daily level in over a year.
Even if the inflation rate is on the higher side, it's unlikely that this will cause a spike in yields.
ASSESSING THE FRAGILIOUS LABOR MARK
Investors have filled in the blanks with their own doomsday scenarios, as there were no official economic statistics during the three-week shutdown of the government.
The slump in employment growth is what they have been wallowing over. The dramatic decline in job creation, which has been mostly offset by the shrinking labor pool until now, is alarming.
Goldman Sachs economists outlined on Monday five reasons for the rapid decline in job creation: a slowdown of immigration, a reduction in government hiring and funds, adoption of artificial-intelligence technology; tariffs and trade uncertainty as well as costs related to tariffs; and macroeconomic risk.
The underlying trend in payroll growth is now 25,000 per month, 125,000 less than the projections made in January. This is also below the "breakeven pace" of job growth required to stabilize unemployment, which was estimated at 75,000.
This is on the higher side of estimates for breakeven. Anton Cheremukhin of the Dallas Fed estimates it at 30,000. This is down from 250,000 just two years ago.
A low level of break-even job growth can help keep the unemployment rate down, but masks an even greater fragility on the labor market. Net job growth can quickly turn into job losses if the economy deteriorates.
MESSAGE IN BARREL
The Fed is well aware of this danger. Chair Powell indicated last month that fear of a rapid deterioration of the labor market was the main reason for the decision to continue cutting interest rates, even when inflation exceeded the 2% target.
Investors and the Fed may both have other reasons for looking past the inflation rate that is still high.
One is the signals from the oil markets. The link between the crude oil price and inflation may be weaker now, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Brent crude is near $60 per barrel, and oil prices are at a five-month low. This is down about 15% compared to the same time last year.
The majority of energy analysts, such as those at the International Energy Agency (IEA), predict a persistent imbalance in supply and demand for the upcoming year. This is due to both increased production and weakened demand.
If Eurasia Group analysts have it right, the glut could drive prices down to $55 per barrel by the end this year. This would be a 5-year low.
Oil prices that are moderate have been exerting downward pressure on the inflation rate almost all year. Although cheaper crude oil won't help inflation reach the Fed's target of 2%, it can explain why investors and the Fed have turned their attention away from inflation towards the deteriorating labor market.
(source: Reuters)