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US oil service companies to be hit by Trump tariffs and falling oil prices

Analysts and financial firms warned on Friday that U.S. oilfield services firms were bracing themselves for a blow as President Donald Trump’s tariffs threw supply chains into chaos and the falling oil prices set up a decline in drilling activity.

Morningstar, a financial services firm, has lowered its fair-value estimates for SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes, the three largest oilfield service companies, following Trump's announcement of tariffs on Wednesday.

These firms may see their oilfield revenues drop by 2-3% in 2025. Morningstar estimates that for every dollar of revenue lost, the big three companies could lose $1.25 to $1.35 in operating profit.

Ryan Hassler, vice president of Rystad's supply chain research and a specialist in the industry, said that tariffs would have a significant impact on pipes, valve fittings, and sucker rods.

SLB shares, the largest oil service firm in the world, fell 12% to $34.60 on Friday, their lowest level since September 2022. This is according to LSEG data. Halliburton's stock fell 10% to just under $20 and Baker Hughes dropped 11% to about $36.40.

Trump introduced reciprocal duties on Wednesday. He implemented a 10% base duty on the majority of U.S. imported goods, while some countries such as China faced significantly higher tariffs.

Oil prices fell on Friday, after China, which is the world's largest crude importer, increased tariffs on U.S. products. This was the most significant escalation of a global trade conflict that has investors concerned about a possible recession and subsequent drop in oil demand.

Crude oil futures were down more than 8% during afternoon trading and headed for their lowest closing since 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic was in its middle stages. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to as low as $49.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), however hit a new low of $64.90.

Rystad's Hassler stated that if a lower range of $60 per barrel for WTI is sustained for a prolonged period, the activity in the U.S. Shale space could decrease towards the second half year.

JP Morgan, an investment bank, said that it now expects the global economy to enter recession by year's end. This is up from 40%.

The curtain is falling on global trade, and the future looks bleak. Investors are fleeing risk assets like oil and stocks, as they fear a recession. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Choy in Houston)

(source: Reuters)