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Barclays predicts Brent could hit $80 per barrel due to tensions between the US and Iran
Barclays stated that Brent crude oil could reach around $80 per barrel in the event a material supply disruption occurs, given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. remain high. The bank stated that "while it is possible that an 'escalation' does not result in a disruption in supply and the risk premium of $3-5/b in oil prices quickly fades, a 1mb/d outage in supply would question the widely anticipated supply glut, and push Brent to $80/b in our opinion." Prices of oil rose by?about 2 percent on Friday as traders prepared for supply disruptions due to the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. Brent settled at $72.48 per barrel. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, expressed his disappointment on Friday over the U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran. He warned that "sometimes force is necessary" amid the massive military presence that could lead to strikes against the Islamic Republic. Barclays stated in a report that "the pushback against our view that geopolitical tensions continue to pose an asymmetrical upside risk for oil price is primarily based on recent history which argues in favor fading the risk premia around 'these events. Barclays also said that oil prices may fall by up to $5 per barrel if there is no disruption in the supply of material and Iran does not respond to the U.S. strikes with the same fervor. The report also warned that the market was structurally tightening due to low and decreasing spare capacity, tight inventory and strong demand.
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Oil prices rise as stocks fall when investors take a breather from AI
Oil prices rose on Friday as a result of the possibility of supply disruptions caused by tensions between Iran and the U.S. Investors are more concerned about the impact of AI in general on technology companies even though Nvidia, a chip maker that makes AI chips, reported better than expected results. Nvidia shares, the most valuable company in the world, fell 3.5% on Monday, continuing the previous session's losses. Wall Street fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.33%, and the Nasdaq composite off by 1.2%. We're at a stage in the market cycle when not only the market, but also that industry group (semiconductors) that has risen more than 100 percent in one year have priced in many good news. Now it's time to take a break," said Talley Lger, chief strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group. Semiconductor stock prices fell 1.9%. Leger stated, "I love semiconductors." As a group, I've achieved my return targets so at this point, I have protected and locked in the gains made by these stocks since April's lows. MSCI's All Country World Index fell 0.45%, but was still on course for a gain of?0.15% for the week. It is also expected to rise by nearly 1% in February. The STOXX Europe 600 index rose by 0.1%. U.S. - Iran Talks Continue The markets were also closely watching the progress of U.S.-Iran nuke talks as Washington gathered more military resources in Middle East. A mediator from Omani gave a positive summary of the latest talks, but it was clear that there had been no breakthroughs in recent negotiations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Friday that he is still not happy with Iran and threatened to use force if needed to reach an accord. After consultations in the capitals of both countries, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Sayyid Bahr Albusaidi announced in a X post after?the meetings held in Switzerland that they plan to resume their negotiations. U.S. crude oil rose 2.6%, to $66.33 a barrel. Brent was up 2.6% at $72.58 a barrel. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 5.7 basis points, to 3.96%. The yield on the 2-year note fell by 6.7 basis points, to 3.381%. In Europe, yields on benchmark German 10-year 'Bunds' fell by 1.1 basis points at 2.643%. STARMER FALTERS The sterling was down by 0.07% to $1.34473, after the Labour Party of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lost an election in Greater Manchester where it had ruled for nearly a century. Data from Japan showed a cooling of inflation in Tokyo, and a weaker than expected?factory production. This made it difficult for the central bank to increase policy rates. The dollar rose by 0.1%, to?156.96 yen. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of other currencies) was down by 0.12%, at 97.61. The dollar rose by 0.18%, to $1.1818. Spot gold increased 1.2% to $5249.28 per ounce. Spot silver increased 5.57% to $83.25 an ounce.
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EIA reports that US oil production fell to its lowest level since June 2025 in December.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Friday that U.S. crude oil production dropped for the second consecutive month in December, to its lowest level since June of last year. Meanwhile, demand was at a multi-month high. The EIA reported that crude?oil?production averaged 13,66 million barrels a day in December. This was down by about 133,000 barrels a day from November. This was the biggest month-over-month drop in U.S. crude oil production since January 2025 when bad weather forced major?production centers to shut down. Analysts have predicted that oil production will slow due to the recent decline in oil prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures traded near $67 last Friday, compared to $77.50 in 2024. The EIA data revealed that the total U.S. petroleum demand increased by 624,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 20,85 million bpd, its highest level since August. The data showed that gasoline demand increased by 101,000 bpd and reached 8.78 million bpd. Demand for distillate fuels (diesel, heating oil) also rose by 16,000 bpd. The U.S. Gross Natural Gas Production from the Lower 48 States rose to a record of 135.9 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd),?up from its previous all-time highest of 134.2bcfd, in November. In the top gas producing states, monthly production?in Texas rose by 1% in December to a monthly record high of 38.5 bcfd. EIA reported that output in Pennsylvania also increased by 2%, to 21.5 Bcfd. This?compares to a previous monthly?all time high of 38.2 Bcfd, in November in Texas. Pennsylvania's record-high of 21.9 billion cubic feet per day was set in December 2021. (Reporting from Shariq Khan in New York and Scott DiSavino)
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Delaware's top court affirms new corporate law reform
The Delaware Supreme Court approved on Friday the 'billionaire bill', which would limit lawsuits filed against powerful business leaders. According to the law SB?21?, if a deal has been approved by either a board committee with a majority independent directors, or by a vote of public shareholders, then investors can't challenge it in court. Prior to this, both steps had to be taken and the board committee must have been made up entirely of independent directors. The bill makes it more difficult to challenge the independence of a director and limits what records are available to shareholders looking to check a deal's conflict. The measure was adopted by lawmakers in March 2025, to stop companies from leaving Delaware. This trend is known as DExit. Delaware is still the home of most large public companies, and its fees account for 20% of its budget. Other states are trying to attract incorporations. This law primarily affects companies that have a controlling shareholder like Meta Platforms which is controlled Mark Zuckerberg. Pension funds were among the opponents of the law, as they feared that it would limit their abilities to police possible conflicts of interest. They also viewed it a gift for influential tech founders. Shareholder lawyers argued SB 21 was a violation of the state constitution because it took jurisdiction away from Court of Chancery, and prevented them from reviewing certain claims in corporate deals. Defenders of the Law argued that lawmakers were not removing?jurisdictions or certain legal claims but were rather recalibrating the standards used by the Court of Chancery in determining if 'transactions are fair. In recent years, business leaders have been frustrated by 'court rulings which upset expectations regarding the state corporate law. In January 2024, a Delaware judge rescinded Musk’s $56 billion pay package from Tesla. Musk was outraged by the?ruling and encouraged companies to abandon Delaware. Dropbox, Roblox, and Coinbase Global did just that. In December, the Delaware Supreme Court restored Musk's compensation package after an appeal. Reporting by Tom Hals, Wilmington, Delaware. Editing by Noeleen Walder & Daniel Waller.
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Nigeria's economy grows marginally faster in the fourth quarter
Data released on Friday showed that Nigeria's economic growth grew slightly in the fourth quarter last year. It reached 4.07%, up from 3.98%, thanks to a slight improvement in both the oil and non-oil industries. The rate of growth was higher than the third-quarter's reading of 3.98%, but still fell short of President Bola Tinubu's ambitious targets for Africa's most populous nation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the oil sector expanded by 6.79% and the non-oil part of the economy grew by 3.99%. Tinubu, who took office in 2023, has devalued the currency, and overhauled tax systems to boost public finances. He has urged Nigerians to back the measures, which have exacerbated economic ?hardship for many, calling them a "once-in-a-generation" ?reset. In the final quarter of 2025, Nigeria's average daily oil production was 1.58 million barrels. This was lower than the third-quarter's production?of 1,64 million bpd, but higher than the?1.54million bpd produced in the fourth quarter 2024. Reporting by Elisha Gbogbo, Editing by Alexander Winning & Barbara Lewis
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US construction expenditures increase in line with expectations for December
U.S. Construction Spending increased in December. This was boosted by a rebound in the single-family homebuilding industry, as well as continued strength in home improvements. The Census Bureau of the?Commerce Department announced?on Friday?that?construction expenditures rose 0.3%, after declining 0.2% in November. The rise was in line the expectations of economists. In December, construction spending fell 0.4% on an annual basis. Data was delayed due to?last year’s government shutdown. Spending on construction projects for private clients increased 0.5% in the month of December, after a 0.2% decrease in November. Residential construction investment increased by 1.5% after remaining unchanged in November. The spending on single-family housing projects increased by 1.5%. The spending on multi-family units, which make up a small part of the housing market, increased by 0.1%. Renovations continued to increase. Homebuilding has remained slow despite the acceleration in December. This is due to higher mortgage rates and more expensive materials as a result of import tariffs. The recent decline in mortgage interest rates could be a catalyst for construction. However, building lots are still scarce. Residential investment has fallen for 'four consecutive quarters. In December, spending on nonresidential private structures such as offices and factories fell by 0.7%. The spending on nonresidential buildings has been declining for eight consecutive quarters despite an increase in data centers that support artificial intelligence. After falling by 0.2% in November, investment in public construction projects fell 0.5%. Construction spending by state and local governments decreased 0.7% in the month of December, while federal government expenditures increased 1.6%. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Chizu nomiyama
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WIDE IMAGE: Warmer winters have left the Pakistan Festival on thin ice
The pool in front Aleena Gul’s house, in Pakistan’s Hunza Valley, has been transformed into an ice skating rink every winter since the 1960s, with the jagged Himalayan mountains and the stone walls at Altit Fort as a backdrop. This year it didn't. Gul's bedroom allows her to see the pool, which doubles as an arena for hockey. She would wake up every morning at dawn and lace her skates before stepping out of her front door straight onto solid ice. She returned to playing after four years of university but is still waiting for winter. "There is a huge difference between 2018 and today," said?Gul. She's 21, the captain of her Hunza team, and one of the first Hunza women to take up this sport. "Winter used to start in November, and everything would freeze. The ice hasn't properly frozen yet, and it's now January. Winters in the northern mountains of Pakistan are becoming more unpredictable and arriving later. The cold spells are shorter and the freeze-thaw cycle is more unpredictable. Scientists in the Hindu Kush and Himalayan regions report fewer extreme events of cold, shorter snow seasons. Locals refer to this as a "snow-drought" when snow does not settle. Hunza is a place where the change can be seen. WeatherWalay's climate analytics platform compiled data that shows the average winter precipitation is down about 30% in the last few years. This represents four consecutive years of below-normal precipitation. Recent winters were also milder by 2-3degC, which means there was less snow to support the ice. Hunza's tournament is entirely dependent on natural ice, unlike resorts in Europe that have artificial snow. Winter sports are now dependent on weather patterns that do not follow the old rhythms in a valley that is heavily reliant on tourism. Ice Under Pressure Altit's Pool has been hosting the Karakoram Interlude for eight seasons. This community-run tournament attracts teams from all over northern Pakistan, and extends tourist season past summer. In good years the rink is lit up by floodlights and spectators are seen leaning on stone parapets with tea cups in their hands, as they exhale white clouds. The rink was prepared as usual, with water being poured at night, and the surface smoothed by hand, to allow temperatures below -20degC. Gul explained, "We tried to freeze it until 3 in the morning." "We're trying everything we can." Sadiq Saleem is a 31-year-old founding member of SCARF and president of Altit Town Management Society. He was the first to introduce ice hockey into the valley. The blades that scratched the surface of the ice left thin puddles. Under the surface, hairline cracks appeared. Organisers pressed palms against the ice to listen for cracks and check for flex. "We spent a whole week building this arena," said Naseer, 34, cofounder of SCARF. "But the sun was so strong that it destroyed everything." Under floodlights the opening ceremony was held, but organizers warned that the rink is too fragile to accommodate entire teams. The thinning ice made it necessary for only captains to reveal the jerseys alongside sponsors. The opening night friendly game has been cancelled. COLD CHASING It was not possible to debate the weather. In just a few hours, organizers had moved through Altit’s lanes, calling out to players and knocking at doors. The tournament was relocated nearly two hours to the north, in Sost. This is one of the last Pakistani towns before the Chinese border. Colder air provided better chances of ice. This was not the first time they had done it. The ice in Sost remained firm when, two winters ago the pool at Altit failed to freeze. Sost is located about 2,800 metres above sea level, roughly 300-400 metres higher than Altit. This year too, the solution failed. Gul felt like he was chasing after a season who kept regressing. The rink in Sost was located on a valley floor exposed to the wind near the Khunjerab pass, under steep, wind-cut mountains that funneled cold air from higher elevations. While the surface of this pool was more firm than Altit’s, there were still thin areas. The players tested the surface before they put their weight on it. On the first day, three matches were scheduled. One match was played. Gul stated that "the ice was not in good condition when we arrived at the rink." "Teams played on, but it was difficult. "We've never seen anything like this before." The blades of the skaters caught unexpectedly where the ice cracked and softened. Every evening, organizers would pour water on the ice, hoping that the temperatures overnight would freeze it. Saliha Ibrahim, a 21-year-old member of the organizing team, said that "our event relies entirely on natural ice." If we cannot improve the surface we may need to change the venue. Winter can't pay the bills Not only players feel the pressure. Winters are unpredictable in cafes, guesthouses and transport operators. The pipes in smaller guesthouses, without heating, freeze and cut off the water. They then thaw, and refreeze unpredictably. This increases the risk of costly repairs and bursts. As temperatures rise, fewer and fewer regions are able to host winter sports. Residents of Hunza -- a district with fewer than 100,000 residents -- are faced with a'reality that is without artificial snow, refrigeration systems, or certainty. Hunza's winter is quieter than its summer, but residents claim that erratic snowfall and flooding, as well as impassable roads, deter tourists who want to see the snow-covered peaks or frozen lakes. This was before the Karakoram Interlude began attracting travellers from all over Pakistan. Naseera Khatoon owns Murku Cafe in Altit, which overlooks the pool. Her daughter, ?Arifa, plays ice hockey. In the past, tournament week brought steady business, as families would linger long after matches were over to enjoy traditional soups and dumplings. Her cafe was quiet this year, despite her participation in the ceremony. "We usually earn money during the tournament," she said. "This time there was very little." She recalls the winters of her childhood when heavy snowfall closed schools for several months, and families would store food to prepare for long cold spells. She said, "We used store food and dry vegetables because the roads would be closed [in winter]." "Now, food is available all year round. However, the snow and ice have disappeared." Kareem Ul Hayat, the?supervisor of the restored 900 year-old Altit Fort said that winter tourism has grown because events such as ice hockey have attracted visitors. He said that numbers have declined in recent winters. He said, "In the old days, the mountains were always white." "Now, the snow is disappearing quickly." Title on Thin Ice The tournament continues in Sost. The players adapted their game to the new conditions. The wind blew hard against the scarves of spectators. Yahya Karaim, a 20-year-old player from Altit said that the surface was different than anything they had ever trained on. He said, "I was expecting better ice conditions but I was a little sad when I saw the skating rink." "Many players fell." "The surface was too bumpy and weak." They chased the winter north. Even there, however, the cold was elusive. Gul's team won on a fragile, scarred ice rink far away from home. Reporting by Ariba and Salah in Hunza Valley Pakistan; Editing and production by Saad, Lucy, and Kate Mayberry.
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The US Energy Secretary says that Venezuelan oil proceeds are no longer being routed through Qatar.
Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy secretary, said that proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil will no longer be routed through an account in Qatar. Instead they are being sent directly to US Treasury Department accounts. The U.S. has taken control of Venezuela's oil exports after Washington and Caracas signed a landmark deal in January. The U.S. has taken control of Venezuela's oil exports as part of a historic deal signed between Washington and Caracas. To protect the money from seizure, it was initially deposited into a Qatari account. Wright, who spoke to reporters in Texas about the?reroute, said that it was a result of an executive order from the United States issued last month, which sought to protect Venezuelan money against creditors. This is because debts to bondholders and expropriated companies, former business partners, or other parties continue to accumulate. Wright said that President Donald Trump of the United States does not have any plans to visit Venezuela at this time, but "it's a very real option." Wright was the highest-ranking U.S. official in recent years to visit Venezuela. He urged American firms to invest to?revitalize Venezuela’s deteriorating energy industry. Venezuelan crude oil is expected to generate revenue of approximately $ Reach $2 Billion Wright told reporters on Thursday that the money would be used to benefit Venezuelan citizens in the days ahead. The Trump administration has said that money from Venezuela will be overseen and used by the U.S. Wright stated that during his visit to Venezuela?last week, the Venezuelan government had presented plans for investment that included repairing the electricity grid in the country. He said that the?government recently bought a number of medical supplies in the U.S. Wright continued, "Their capacity to generate electricity has declined over the past?20 years. However, they already have assets that they can repair and do plan to invest money in this regard." Sheila Dang reported from Corpus Christi in Texas. Marianna Paraga, Hugh Lawson, and Niveditarjee Bhattacharjee edited the story.
President Dominican Republic says Dominican Republic has more than 150 million tonnes of rare earth deposits
President?Luis Abinader announced on Friday that the Dominican Republic had identified a?rare-earth deposit which could make it a major future'supplier of minerals essential to high-tech industries.
According to a government announcement, preliminary studies show that gross deposits of rare earth elements exceed 150 million tons. These metals can be used for semiconductors, aerospace and military equipment.
Abinader, in his State of the Nation Address to Congress this year, set out to finish assessing mineral reserves and certify reserves before early next year. This is a step necessary for large-scale mining and refining.
Uncertainty surrounds how much of the 150,000,000 tons would be commercially viable.
The president said that the development of these deposits was part of a wider strategy of energy transformation, and responsible use of natural resources, which would strengthen Dominican sovereignty and reduce external dependency, as well as cut emissions and increase competitiveness.
The United States has shown a strong interest in the Dominican deposit located in 'the border province of Pedernales.
U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated in February of last year that the world would need to access such resources in order to develop key technologies for this century. He also stressed that the rare earths "belong" to the Dominican Republic and its people, while offering U.S. assistance as a partner to their development. Reporting by Paul Mathiasen, Santo Domingo Editing Rod Nickel
(source: Reuters)