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US manufacturing production increases on the back of primary metals, but outlook is unclear

U.S. Factory Production Surprisingly Increased in December, amid a surge of primary metals production that offset a decrease at motor vehicle assembly plant. However, activity contracted in fourth quarter due to the challenges posed by import tariffs. Manufacturing is expected to improve this year, as President Donald Trump's import duties begin to ease and new tax legislation that made bonus depreciation permanent, among other benefits, comes into effect. A boom in artificial intelligence investments is also expected to provide support. However, some economists warn that the manufacturing environment remains fragile due to weak factory surveys.

There are many reasons why capital expenditure plans have been delayed. Shannon Grein is an economist with Wells Fargo. She said that they expect traditional investments to recover this year. "Trade policy is likely to remain a concern, but we don't expect as many changes in tariff rates as last year."

The Federal Reserve announced on Friday that manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in December after a 0.3% increase, which was upwardly revised. The Federal Reserve said on Friday that economists polled had predicted production in the 10.1% sector would fall by 0.2%, after previously reporting a unchanged reading for November.

In December, the production at factories increased by 2.0%?on an annual basis. It dropped by 0.7% annually in the fourth quarter, after increasing at a pace of 2.8% in the quarter from July to September. Trump's import duties have hurt the manufacturing industry. He has ironically justified them as necessary to restore a declining domestic industrial base.

The rest of the manufacturing sector has suffered, with 68,000 jobs being lost in 2025.

Economists argue that a manufacturing revival is impossible due to structural issues. These include worker shortages which are exacerbated by Trump's immigration crackdown.

The production of primary metals increased by 2.4%. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components were all up in production as well as aerospace and other transportation. Motor vehicle production fell 1.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In December, motor vehicle production fell 2.8% on an annual basis.

NO GENUINE SIGN OF RESHORING Economists dismissed the increase in manufacturing output 'in the last two months of 2025' as unsustainable. They argued that the rise was due to the front-loading by domestic and foreign producers of U.S. made goods in anticipation of higher tariffs.

"With the data available now, it is fair to say that any manufacturing boost from tariffs last year was driven by a front-running strategy and short-lived. There are limited signs of reshoring," Bradley Saunders said, North America economist for Capital Economics.

Durable goods production increased by 0.1%. The nondurable manufacturing sector increased by 0.3%. This was boosted by the production of food and beverage, tobacco, as well as plastics, rubber, and petroleum and coal. Some economists warned that tariff uncertainty still persists. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality Trump's tariffs. The manufacturing surveys are largely subdued. Tariffs have been cited as an obstacle in many of them, which is consistent with economists' predictions that output will be flat to falling over the next few months.

The increased uncertainty over tariffs and federal government policies will likely discourage manufacturers from investing in extra capacity needed for the recovery to extend its legs, said Samuel Tombs.

The manufacturing output will not change much from its current level by the end of this calendar year.

The rise in manufacturing last month, combined with an increase of 2.6% in utility output due to the weather, lifted overall industrial production by 0.4%. This is in line with November's gains. In December, mining output decreased by 0.7%. In December, industrial output increased by 2.0% compared to the previous year. The fourth quarter saw a growth of 0.7%.

The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector has increased from 76.1% to 76.3% in November. This is 3.2 points below the average for 1972-2024. The operating rate for the manufacturing industry remained unchanged at 75.6%. This is 2.6 points below the long-term average.

A separate report shows that homebuilder confidence declined in January. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped two points this month to 37, and has been below 50 for 21 consecutive months. The NAHB stated that most responses were received before Trump's last-week order for the Federal Housing Finance Agency – which oversees mortgage giants Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae – to purchase $200 billion in bonds issued by both companies.

The goal is to lower mortgage rates in order to increase housing affordability. However, economists and real estate agents argue that a lack housing inventory is what is holding back the housing market. The tariffs on building materials, appliances and other goods have increased the price, while the crackdown on immigration, which includes raids of construction sites, has reduced labor supply.

Carl Weinberg is the chief economist of High Frequency Economics. He said that despite the short supply of housing, a rapid homebuilding recovery is unlikely until the corrosive uncertainties about costs, tariffs, and other policies are resolved.

(source: Reuters)