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Australia's Weather Bureau Casts Doubt on La Nina Prospects
A senior climatologist at Australia's Weather Bureau isn't convinced that La Nina is forming, which could affect crop production and change rainfall patterns in parts of Asia, the Americas and Oceania. La Nina and El Nino are both caused by the cooling and warming of ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific. El Nino is the opposite. The former brings more rain to Australia's east, Southeast Asia, and India, with dryer weather in North America. Both can lead to flooding and hurricanes. The models that forecast the weather patterns usually converge around this time of the year, but there are currently many variations. She added, "This speaks to the fact there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the systems." The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that La Nina conditions are present, but in a weak form, and will likely persist into December. Models from the Australian Bureau show sea surface temperatures dipping below a La Nina threshold in October, December and November by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 Fahrenheit). Then they move back to neutral. Gamble said that the cooling effect on cloud patterns and trade wind directions is not enough to give confidence in a La Nina. The senior climatologist stated that "our model is probably among the weaker predictions for La Nina." She said that although NOAA considered atmospheric response sufficient, "we'd like more." Gamble said that, except for certain islands in the southwest Pacific region, there were no signs of typical La Nina rainfall patterns. We aren't experiencing the same impacts because we don't see a dominant La Nina pattern. She said that when you have a weaker sign, other influences can start to take over and possibly override the signal. Between 2020 and 2023, three consecutive La Nina events brought record rainfall to Australia and droughts and heatwaves to parts of the Americas.
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The Kremlin has said that Russia is ready to expand its ties with Iran across all fields.
The Kremlin announced on Monday that Russia is ready to expand its cooperation with Iran across all fields. Moscow maintains close ties with Tehran. It has condemned the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites in early this year, which were conducted with the stated goal of preventing Tehran acquiring a nuke bomb. Iran denies building a nuclear weapon. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, was asked by reporters to comment on how Russia viewed events surrounding Iran's nuclear program and whether Moscow would strengthen ties with Tehran. "Russia is ready to expand its cooperation with Iran across all fields." "Iran is our partner and our relationship is developing very rapidly." Peskov stated that European countries are putting "excessive" pressure on Iran regarding negotiations over its nucleo programme. He added that the situation is "very complex". A Russian envoy is scheduled to meet with Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. This meeting will take place later on Monday. It comes less than one week after Larijani was arrested. The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei sent a message to the Kremlin's leader. Putin and Masoud Peshkian, his Iranian counterpart, signed a strategic agreement partnership in January. The pact did not include a clause on mutual defense. Moscow claims it supplies military equipment to Tehran legally, and Iran provided drones for Russia's war in Ukraine. Last month, the Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom signed a deal worth $25 billion with Iran for the construction of four nuclear power stations in the country. Iran suffers from an electricity shortage and has one nuclear power station in operation, which was built by Russia, in the southern town of Bushehr.
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Gold consolidates following record rally; focus on US-China discussions
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, after a record rally. Investors waited for clues from the upcoming U.S. China trade talks. As of 0951 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.3% to $4,259.84 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.5%, to $4275 per ounce. Silver spot rose by 0.5%, to $52.12, after falling 4.4% the previous day after reaching a record high at $54.47. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that gold was still very bullish. TRUMP'S 100% CHINA THREAT AND EXPECTED FEDER RATE CUT Hansen said that the U.S. shutdown of government is still providing some support, while the U.S. China meeting scheduled for next week will be a key focus. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Friday that his proposal of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods would not be sustainable. He also added that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping within two weeks. Gold, which hit record highs multiple times this year, most recently Friday at $4,378.69, gained more momentum last week when the U.S. announced steep tariff increases over China's controls on rare-earths exports. It fell by more than 1.8% after Trump's remarks. The U.S. CPI, which has been delayed because of the government shutdown in the U.S., will be released Friday, just days before the Fed policy meeting on October 28-29. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 3.1% for September. It is widely believed that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again by a quarter of a percentage point. In the third quarter, China's economy grew at its slowest pace in over a year. Hansen stated that "the weakness in the Chinese real estate market is a major source of support for gold." Palladium fell 1.4% and platinum dropped 0.9%, to $1.595.85 an ounce.
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Sandvik's quarterly profit missed forecasts but orders rose on strong mining demand
Sandvik, a Swedish company, reported on Monday a lower-than-expected decline in its core profit for the third quarter. However orders increased due to strong demand for mining equipment. In a statement, CEO Stefan Widing stated that Sandvik successfully mitigated tariffs by implementing surcharges in the third quarter. This strategy was repeated from the previous three month. He added that currency headwinds had a negative impact on the company's earnings margin. The company's shares, which are often viewed as an indicator of industrial demand due to the wide customer base it has and its short lead time for orders, rose 3.3% at 956 GMT. In a LSEG poll, analysts predicted that the operating profit before amortization and items affecting comparableity would be 5.54 billion Swedish crowns (588.39 millions) in the period July-September. This is 6% lower than a year ago. However, organically, orders grew by 16%. Sandvik reported that orders at its Machining and Intelligent Manufacturing division, which accounts for around 40% of the group's revenue, have been stable in the fourth-quarter.
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Venezuela increases coal production in search of income, despite environmental concerns
Venezuela is scrambling to find income in the face of U.S. sanction. It has recently restarted its coal production with a Turkish firm and plans to export over 10 million tons this year. According to Indigenous leaders, members of local communities and a source from the company with knowledge of operations, the mining takes place without any environmental safeguards. Venezuela's government claims that the economy grew by 8.7% during the third quarter. However, many international companies left the country long ago. Inflation is expected to hit 200% in this year, and foreign oil companies are required to obtain U.S. operating licenses. The coal industry is not subject to sanctions. This allows the joint venture Carboturven between Venezuelan state-owned Carbozulia, and Glenmore Dis Ticaret Ve Madencilik A.S., to reactivate. The government of President Nicolas Maduro has made other efforts to diversify Venezuela's economy and move away from oil. This is just the latest example in Latin America of coal mining continuing, even though countries such as Chile are turning to renewable energy. COAL PUSH FOR STATED COFFERS Maduro stated earlier this year that it was time to unite forces and build a prosperous nation. He added that coal would accelerate the growth. Carbozulia and Glenmore formed a joint venture, Carboturven, in 2018. Five sources within the company claim that production will resume at two mines in the north-west of the country – Paso Diablo, and Mina Norte – in December 2024, after several years being suspended. Maduro also approved plans for a second coal project to be developed in Falcon State. According to Carbozulia data, Venezuela's coal output was around 3 million tonnes in the first quarter 2025. This puts the nation on course to surpass the 8 million tons of annual production of the early 2000s. The coal from Venezuela that is high energy and cleaner burning is sold almost exclusively for export. One employee of Paso Diablo, who requested anonymity, stated that Venezuela exports raw coal to Turkey which then sells it to other countries in Europe. The employee stated that recent U.S. Navy strikes in the Caribbean had halted the exports and forced the company to stop production a week earlier when it ran out of space for storage. Carbozulia nor the Venezuelan government did not respond to our repeated requests for comments. Carboturven has no website and neither its Turkish partner nor the Venezuelan government responded to repeated requests for comment. Import Genius, a trading tracker, shows that Glenmore has registered as an exporter for bituminous coke from Palmarejo in Zulia. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Environmental groups including the local non-profit Sociedad et Natura say that the mines release sulfate and lead into the Guasare river, as well as cyanide, mercury, and cadmium. According to Sociedad homo et natura and other groups, mining has displaced at least 12 Indigenous and rural farming community in the last few years. They also fear that more communities could be affected if coal is expanded. Lusbi, a leader of the indigenous group and coordinator for Sociedad Homo et Natura, said: "They're trying to grab everything they can." Carbozulia's environmental document, seen this year, lists mitigation measures that could be used for coal mining. These include runoff treatment, emission controls, dust suppression systems, sprinklers on stockpiles and belts. However, it is not clear if these are actually in place. The Paso Diablo employee said that there were no environmental controls. The employee said that monitors had been installed in every community to measure environmental contamination, but these were no longer functional. Residents living near mines claim that coal dust damages crops and homes. In a telephone interview, an elderly woman living in a small community near Paso Diablo said: "You can't stay here any more." She asked to remain anonymous out of fear of reprisals. Residents sent images of blackened houses and drinking water containers, as well as people's feet covered in coal dust. An Indigenous person from La Guajira stated, "We are poor communities who live by herding and the animals are dead from dust," referring to goats, which are crucial to the economic survival of the community. "We are in extreme poverty, surrounded by wealth from coal." (Reporting and Editing by Rosalba o'Brien).
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Copper gains from strong China industrial data
Copper gained ground on Monday, bouncing back from a dip on Friday, as investors cheered stronger-than-expected China industrial output data and focused on the so-called fourth plenum - a key meeting of the Chinese leadership. As of 0900 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had increased by 0.4% to $10,648.50. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Monday that China, a major metals consumer, saw its industrial output grow 6.5% in September compared to last year. This was better than the forecasted growth of 5.0% and lifted sentiment even though China's GDP grew at its lowest pace in over a year during the third quarter. Nitesh Sha, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said: "The fact that production numbers are higher than expected is good news for the base metals sector." Shah said, "But I also think we still have the 'halo' effect from LME Week," referring to London's metals meeting last week. Everyone was talking about the possibility of a larger deficit in the copper markets. "I think it's likely that prices will continue to rise over the next couple of weeks." Analysts have revised their forecasts for market balance due to a series of mining disruptions. This includes the Grasberg Copper and Gold Mine in Indonesia. The plenum, which will take place in Beijing between Monday and Thursday, is where the top Chinese Communist Party officials review a proposed 5-year plan for 2026-2030. They also focus on U.S. China trade negotiations. Shah stated, "We are aware that discussions take place behind closed doors in China. Anything that is leaked out could affect the market one way or another." U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said that he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia to prevent an escalation of U.S. Tariffs on Chinese products. Other LME metals include aluminium, nickel, and lead. Lead rose 0.6%, and tin increased 0.1%. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Subhranshu sahu; Shailesh kuber and Harikrishnan Nair)
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European shares recover as US bank worries and trade tensions ease
European shares rose on Monday as concerns about the stability of U.S. banks eased. Meanwhile, fresh comments by U.S. president Donald Trump helped to calm down trade tensions and encouraged investors to move towards riskier assets. As of 0915 GMT, the STOXX 600 index for Europe was up 0.6% to 569.37. The benchmark index closed Friday nearly 1% lower. European banks gained 0.8% on Sunday, placing them among the top gainers of the STOXX 600. This was after U.S. bank stocks recovered in the previous session, following the quarterly results from regional lending institutions that helped ease concerns over credit risk. Trump, in an attempt to lift the mood, told reporters he would lower tariffs against China if Beijing also did "things", including resumed purchases of soybeans. There is optimism that credit concerns are easing, and that U.S.-China tensions in trade will also ease. "They are driving the European market higher today," Ipek Ozkardeskaya said, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. The STOXX Aerospace & Defence index rose 2.1%. This was a rebound from Friday's sharp drop when the news of an upcoming summit on the conflict in Ukraine shocked the sector. The majority of major regional indices were higher, except for France's CAC 40 which was down 0.1%. S&P Global lowered France's credit rating by a notch Friday, warning of political instability that could put at risk the government's attempts to fix its finances. Israeli officials announced on Sunday that a ceasefire had been restored in Gaza after two Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack. This attack prompted Palestinians to claim 26 deaths in a wave airstrikes, which they said was the most severe test of the truce this month. Swissquote's Ozkardeskaya noted that the news out of Gaza was one of the main drivers of the defence sector today. She also stated that, despite Trump's optimism regarding Ukraine, "he hasn't necessarily succeeded in ending the conflict so far... so that optimism isn’t on a strong footing to lead to sustained selling-off throughout the defense sector." Hensoldt rose 6.1% and Renk added 5.5%, while Saab and Renk both increased by 2.7%. Kering, among other movers jumped almost 4% following the agreement by Gucci's owner to sell his beauty business to L'Oreal at 4 billion euros (4.66 billion dollars). Holcim's stock rose 2% after a deal worth 1.85 billion euros ($2.16billion) to buy German walling system maker Xella. Forvia, a French auto parts supplier, lost 5.8% of its sales after reporting a drop of 3.7% in the third quarter. B&M, a British discount retailer, has seen its sales fall 17.4% since it cut its profit forecast for the year. In September, German producer prices declined more than expected.
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UN weather agency urges action on disaster warning systems
The World Meteorological Organization called for action on Monday to close the gaps in a system of global surveillance designed to protect people against extreme weather. It said that early warnings are especially needed in developing nations. WMO held a special conference in Geneva and stated that weather, water, and climate related hazards killed over 2 million people in the last five decades. 90% of these deaths occurred in developing countries. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo made the development of early warning systems a top priority, but data from the U.N. Weather agency show that only 55% have increased their surveillance capability. The WMO released a statement saying that "many millions of people are not protected against hazardous weather, which has a growing impact on the economy and essential infrastructure." In three years, the number of countries that use early-warning system has doubled to 119. WMO's assessment of 62 nations revealed that half had only basic capability and 16% had less than basic. WMO has seen progress in Africa including Mozambique, Ethiopia and more, as they have websites that work and issue standardized alerts. Early warning is early action. Saulo stated in his opening address to the Geneva conference that "our goal is not just to warn the world, but to empower it." The WMO found that countries with limited early warning systems for multi-hazards have six times more deaths and four times as many people affected by disasters. Elisabeth Baume Schneider from the Swiss Federal Department of Home Affairs told conference delegates that climate change, extreme weather and other factors affect every country. She cited the example of how regular monitoring of a mountain ice cap allowed scientists to predict its impending collapse in May 2025. This led to the evacuation of Blatten, a Swiss village. She said that "permafrost melting will lead to more rockfalls and glacier collapses", making early warning systems essential. (Reporting and editing by Frances Kerry, Emma Farge, Olivia Le Poidevin)
Shanghai copper increases on strong China industrial production data
Shanghai copper gained on Monday as stronger-than-expected China industrial output last month boosted investor sentiment, even though economic growth slowed to a one-year low in the September quarter.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract closed the dayday trading at 85,380 Yuan ($11,986.52) metric tons, up 0.78%.
By 0752 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen 0.58% to $10,000 per ton.
National Bureau of Statistics data showed that China's industrial production grew by 6.5% on an annual basis in September. This is up from the 5.2% growth in the previous month. This is a new three-month record and beats the forecasted growth of 5.0%.
China's Gross Domestic Product grew at a slower pace than any other quarter in the past year. It was down from 5.2% growth in the second quarter.
The second-largest global economy, which grew by 5.2% over the first three-quarters of this year, is targeting a growth rate of around 5% for the full year.
A copper trader in Shanghai, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said: "We expect to see more supportive measures in the future to boost economic development amid tariff threats and an looming war."
The market is concerned about a likely copper shortage in 2026, due to mining disruptions including the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, which is the second largest mine in the world.
Aluminium, zinc, nickel, tin, and lead were all down in price.
$1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Subhranshu Sahu and Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)