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Andy Home: Tin prices rise as Indonesia cracksdown on illegal miners
This time, the tin supply chain is in trouble again. The government of Indonesia has started a massive crackdown on illegal mining. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month tin price has increased to more than $37,500 a metric ton. This is the highest price since April, when the Bisie mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was a supply threat. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said that the government wants to close 1,000 illegal tin mines on the tin rich islands of Bangka & Belitung. This is the highest price since April when the supply threat was the Bisie mine in Democratic Republic of Congo. It is impossible to estimate how much tin these operations produce, but there could be a positive offset if the closure of such operations leads to a higher level of production in the official sector. The price of tin is rising again because it is another drop in the cauldron that is the supply crisis. LONG CAMPAIGN Since the deregulation of tin production at the end the 20th century, the Indonesian authorities are struggling to regain the control over the sector. It's difficult to distinguish between those who are operating with an official license and those who don't. The boundaries have blurred so much that PT Timah, the top producer in the country, is now being accused of facilitating black market trade. Some illegal "mines", however, are nothing more than rafts that are sent out to dredge tin at night in waters licensed by PT Timah or other operators of the official sector. The tin is then smuggled from the country in small boats. One such boat was seized by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency this week, transporting 530 sacks of tin weighing 26 tons. Prabowo stated that the latest cracking of the regulatory whip began at the beginning of last month, and it has already led to multiple closures. SHADOWPRODUCTION How much tin is produced in Indonesia's shadow industry? As such material is by definition not detected by the country's Customs Service, it exists as a statistical blackhole. Indonesia's official export statistics capture flows of refined Tin, which is the only metal form that is supposed be shipped overseas. Both the Chinese and Malaysian Customs Departments are recording monthly Indonesian imports. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Chinese imports totaled 1,192 tons during the first eight month of the year. Malaysia imported 642 tons of "ore and concentrates" in the same period. This could be just the tip of a very large iceberg. According to the chairman of Indonesian Tin Exporters Association, (ITEA), up to 12,000 tonnes of tin is illegally exported every year. Prabowo said that the shadow sector could represent up to 80% of the production in the Bangka Belitung area. Estimates will always differ but there is general agreement that the problem became much worse over the past year. The illegal production boom is reducing the capacity of the official sector. PT Timah attributed a drop of 32% in ore production year-on-year in the first half 2025 to the competition with the shadow industry. The ITEA expects a modest rebound to 53,000 tonnes this year. Last year, Indonesian exports fell to a record low of 46,000 metric tons. In theory, the closure of illegal activities should help compensate the official sector in terms of production. However, it is unclear how much compensation and for what period. CAULDRON Tin price has not been waiting to find out. It has risen by 10% in the last week, as time spreads have tightened. Only a few weeks ago, the LME cash price of tin was trading at $167 below the three-month price. This week, the price has risen to $105 as shorts have been forced to purchase their positions. The price response to the Indonesian announcement says a lot about the fragility and dependence of the tin chain on a few large producers. One of the largest tin mining operations in the world is still not operational. Man Maw, in the semiautonomous Wa State of Myanmar, is expected to reopen after a two year absence. The flow of raw tin materials to China is a mere trickle. This suggests that the mine has not yet reached its previous production level before the authorities closed it for an audit. The Bisie Tin Mine in Congo has been restarted after it was briefly suspended due to the M23 rebels' advance in March. The threat is still there. No one seems to have informed the M23 that the United States is leading the effort to resolve the conflict in eastern Congo, which has lasted for decades. Kony Ng’ang’a, one of the M23 leaders, sounded uncompromising in a recent interview with CNN. Tin traders had already enough flash points to worry about. Now they have another. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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FT reports that Ardian has bought Irish utility Energia for $2.9 billion in a bet on AI boom.
The Financial Times reported that Ardian, a French investment company, is acquiring Energia Group, one of Ireland's biggest energy utilities. This deal values the company at over 2.5 billion euros (2.93 billion dollars). Ardian believes it has found a power provider who can serve the booming artificial intelligence industry. The FT reported that Ardian had agreed to purchase Energia Group, an infrastructure investment company, from I Squared Capital. It cited people who were familiar with the situation. I Squared Capital acquired the company for 1 billion euro in 2016. Ardian, Energia, and I-Squared didn't immediately respond to requests for comments outside of regular business hours. They couldn't immediately verify the FT Report. The deal reflects the growing interest of investors in data centers to support the rapidly expanding market for AI and their adoption around the world. Global Infrastructure Partners, a BlackRock company, is close to completing a deal that would value Aligned Data Centers at $40 billion. Two people who are familiar with the situation told us last week. Juan Angoitia, Ardian's cohead of infrastructure, said that Energia was the first deal Ardian had made in Ireland. He added that Energia has "ambitious plans for growth, driven by capital projects secured and increased energy demand." William Briggs, Ardian's managing directors said in an article that "Energia was a pioneering model of how to unlock the growth potential of data centres by using a novel co-development approach with renewables". According to its website, Energia has onshore wind farms that have a 358 mega watt capacity, provides gas and electricity for over 898,000 customers, and employs 1117 people.
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Indonesia transfers assets to a state-owned tin mining company as crackdown intensifies
Indonesia's Attorney General handed over heavy equipment and smelters seized as part of a corruption investigation to state-owned tin mining company PT Timah on Monday, while President Prabowo urged the authorities to stop illegal tin mining and smuggling. The resource-rich nation is stepping up its efforts to improve the governance of natural resource exploitation. This includes measures such as a crackdown on illegal mining. Prabowo visited the tin hub Bangka Island in order to see the transfer of assets confiscated following a number tin executives' convictions for colluding with illegal mining. Attorney General said that their actions led to state losses of about 300 trillion Rupiah (18.09 billion dollars), including environmental damage. The visit was made after Prabowo announced that he would close about 1,000 illegal mines of tin on the islands, and intensify the crackdown on tin-smugglers. Tin prices reached a six-month high last week. Prabowo, on Monday, urged the military and other authorities to continue efforts to combat illegal activities. After the handover, Prabowo said to reporters: "We will eradicate smuggling and illegal mining. We will eradicate those who break the law. Data from the Attorney General's Office showed that among the assets transferred to Timah, a state-owned tin mining company, were six smelters and about 680 metric tonnes of refined tin, as well as 108 heavy equipment units. Data showed that the assets could generate an annual revenue of 4.6 trillion Rupiah when operated. The assets on display included stacks of tin ingots, and dozens excavators. $1 = 16,580.0000 Rupiah (Reporting and writing by Fransiska Naangoy, Editing by Martin Petty & Jamie Freed).
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RPT-Trump administration eyes stake in company developing Greenland Rare Earths Mine
Four people with knowledge of the talks said that Trump administration officials had discussed acquiring a stake in Critical Metals Corp. This would give Washington an interest in the biggest rare earths project on Greenland, a territory in the Arctic that Donald Trump suggested purchasing. The deal, if finalized, would be the latest political twist in the Tanbreez rare-earths deposit. Former President Joe Biden successfully lobbyed for it to be sold to New York based Critical Metals at a much lower price than the Chinese firm offered. Washington recently acquired stakes in Lithium American and MP Materials. This shows Trump's desire to see the U.S. benefit from the growing production of minerals that are used throughout the global economy. Washington's interest to own a stake in Critical Metals has not been previously reported. Four sources declined to give their names, citing that the negotiations were sensitive. In response to a comment request, a senior Trump Administration official said: "Hundreds of businesses are approaching us to try to get the government to invest in their crucial minerals projects." "There is nothing at all close to this company right now." Critical Metals has not responded to multiple requests for comments via phone and email. Greenland is part of Denmark, but it has a semi-autonomous status. The Danish Embassy in Washington didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Rare earths are used in high-tech industries, from electric cars to missile systems. They have strong magnetic properties. Western countries are clamoring for new supplies to reduce their dependency on China, which controls the extraction and processing of rare earths. Critical Metals applied for a grant of $50 million through the Defense Production Act in June. The Defense Production Act is a Cold War legislation that aims to boost production of goods and services for national security. Three sources confirmed that the administration began discussions with the company in the last six-weeks about converting the grant to an equity stake. The same sources stated that if the deal is completed, a $50m conversion would represent a roughly 8.0% stake in the company. However, negotiations are still ongoing and the final stake size could be larger or the deal could fall through. Reports in August stated that administration officials were considering reallocating $2 billion of the CHIPS Act for funding critical mineral projects. The CHIPS and Science Act was signed by President Joe Biden into law in 2022. Its goal is to divert chip production from Asia. Two sources reported that the recent negotiations by the Administration for a 5% share in Lithium Americas delayed the Critical Metals Investment discussions. Two sources stated that the U.S. shutdown will not affect negotiations because the high-level government employees involved in the talks are considered essential workers. One source said that part of the discussion revolves around how warrants will be issued in order to give Washington its stake. Warrants allow their holders to purchase stock at a predetermined price. According to two sources, the equity stake is separate from a $120,000,000 loan that the U.S. Export-Import Bank will consider to assist Tanbreez in developing its product. A spokesperson for EXIM was not available to comment immediately. GREENLANDS APPEAL Washington's economic interests in Greenland predated Trump's interest. Biden officials visited Greenland’s capital Nuuk in November last year to try and woo more private investment into the island’s mining sector. Trump sent JD Vance, Vice President of the United States, to Greenland in March. In northern Greenland, the U.S. Air Force has one of its largest bases. Tanbreez's commercialization is estimated to cost $290 Million, according to the company. The EXIM loan will be used to fund the technical work to get the mine up and running by 2026. The mine will produce 85,000 tons of rare earths per year once it is fully operational. Site also contains tantalum and gallium, both of which China restricted exports last year. Greenland’s mining industry has grown slowly over the past few years due to a lack of investor interest, bureaucratic issues and environmental concerns. At the moment, there are only two small mining operations. Tanbreez's remote and cold location is seen as a challenge to its development despite the fact that it is near a major river. (Reporting and writing by Jarrett Renshaw and Ernest Scheyder, and editing by Veronica Brown and Jason Neely; Edmund Klamann, Jason Neely, and Edmund Klamann.)
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Morning bid Europe-Politics dominate the markets from Japan stocks to Bitcoin
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The global markets were firmly in control of politics on Monday. This was not least because the right-wing fiscal dove Sanae Takayi won a weekend surprise victory that will make her Japan's first woman prime minister. In the first few minutes of trading, Nikkei broke through several psychologically significant levels and reached a new all-time record not far off 48,000. The long-dated bond rates, on the other hand, rose to just below record highs due to concerns about the country's finances. The yen fell to a record low against the euro and short-dated yields dropped sharply on the speculation that Takaichi would pressure the Bank of Japan into delaying further rate increases. Gold extended its record rally, reaching just $75 shy of $4,000 an ounce. Bitcoin soared to $125,000 on Sunday for the first. The U.S. Government Shutdown is the ostensible cause. It is proving to be a long-term affair. Another vote failed on Friday in the Senate, and Republican President Donald Trump has threatened to cut more funding to Democratic States and to fire more federal employees. Takaichi’s rise could be the reason for record gains in alternative assets. Faith in fiat currencies, already battered from the White House’s active pursuit of a lower dollar, has taken another hit. JPMorgan refers to it as the "debasement trading". Futures are currently flat, making it difficult to predict what the future holds for European stocks. They have already reached record highs. Most major Asian markets were closed or had a thinner crowd than usual today. Mainland China is closed, as are Taiwan and South Korea, and Hong Kong's trading takes place between the weekend, and a Tuesday holiday. The Australian markets are open today but the majority of states and territories, including New South Wales, have a holiday. The only data available for Europe is the regional construction PMIs. The central bankers are not lacking, with ECB president Christine Lagarde as well as Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey both speaking at different venues. The Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid will also be speaking. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact European construction PMIs for September -Euro-area retail sales (Aug) -ECB president Lagarde speaks at Strasbourg, ECB vice-president de Guindos, and Bank of Spain governor Escriva, speak in Madrid. ECB chief economic economist Lane, speaks at Frankfurt Governor Bailey of the BoE speaks at Edinburgh Kansas City Fed President Schmid to speak in Kansas City U.S. Government Shutdown
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Shell Exec Says Trump Halting Wind Projects is Harmful
The decision by President Donald Trump administration to halt fully permitted offshore wind energy projects is "very damaging" to investment, President of Shell U.S. Colette Hirstius told the Financial Times in a report published on Sunday.The executive told the newspaper that energy projects with proper permits should be allowed to continue and warned the political pendulum in the U.S. could eventually swing back against the oil and gas sector."I think uncertainty in the regulatory environment is very damaging. However far the pendulum swings one way, it’s likely that it’s going to swing just as far the other way," she told the newspaper."I certainly would like to see those projects that have been permitted in the past continue to be developed," she said.Shell did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment.In August, the Trump administration said it was cancelling $679 million in federal funding for 12 offshore wind projects, in a blow to an industry that was central to former President Joe Biden's climate and energy agendas.London-listed Shell employs more than 11,000 people in the U.S. and is the largest producer of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico.(Reuters - Reporting by Angela Christy in Bengaluru; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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Gold surpasses $3,900/oz in first ever bids for safe-haven bids
Gold prices soared above $3,900 an ounce for the first-time on Monday. This was due to safe-haven demand after a drop in the yen, a U.S. shutdown and growing expectations about further Federal Reserve rate reductions. Gold spot was up 0.9% to $3,922.28 an ounce at 0208 GMT after reaching a session high of $3.924.39 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 1%, to $3947.30. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the yen's weakness following the Japanese LDP election has made gold a more attractive safe-haven for investors. The enduring U.S. shutdown has left a cloud over the U.S. economic outlook and its potential impact on GDP. Waterer says that gold is the best asset to invest in under these conditions, especially with the Fed expected this month to further cut rates. After fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won the election to lead the ruling coalition and become the new prime minister, the yen plunged the most against the dollar in five months. A senior White House official stated on Sunday that the Trump administration would begin mass layoffs if U.S. president Donald Trump determines that negotiations with Congress Democrats to end the partial government shutdown "absolutely are going nowhere". Fed Governor Stephen Miran again pressed for a rate-cutting trajectory aggressive on Friday. He cited the impact of Trump's economic policy. The gold price has increased by 49% this year, after rising 27% in 2024. This is due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed with gold, a lower dollar, and increasing interest from retail investors looking to hedge against trade and geopolitical tensions. Last month, the rally received a new boost after the Fed reduced rates by a quarter-point and announced that it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of the year. Investors are estimating that there will be additional 25 basis-point cuts both in October and December. The probabilities for these cuts are 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. Spot gold first broke through the $3,000 per ounce level in March, and then $3700 by mid-September. Many brokerages are bullish about the rally. The price of palladium rose 0.8%, while the price of platinum increased 1.1%, to $1621.90. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Subhranshu Saghu and Brijesh Mukherjee from Bengaluru).
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Markets are jolted by politics as Japan stock prices soar 4% and bitcoin reaches a record high.
Sanae Takaichi, the fiscal and monetary dove who was recently elected leader of the ruling Party, has now become Japan's first woman prime minister. Gold reached a new record high above $3,900 on Sunday. The leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, also rose to a lifetime-high. Investors are increasingly looking to alternative assets to store value, as the U.S. shutdown has frayed their nerves. In the first 15 trading minutes, Japan's Nikkei rose as high as 4.3%, to an all-time high of 47,734.04, after Takaichi defeated the more moderate Shinjiro in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote, on Saturday. This stoked expectations for fiscal stimulus. The yen fell 1.6%, to just above 150 dollars per yen. Short-term Japanese government bond yields also dropped to a new two-week low. Traders reduced their bets about when the Bank of Japan would resume raising interest rates. The implied odds that the BOJ will raise interest rates by the end of this year have fallen to 41%, down from 68% last Friday. Takaichi criticised the BOJ for raising rates a year ago as "stupid". Her recent remarks have been more restrained. She has only said that central bank policies should align with government. In a recent research report, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities economists stated that "we believe that concerns among investors that the new administration may pursue extreme fiscal expansion" or exert political pressure against the BOJ have been overblown." They noted that Takaichi’s stance appears "closely aligned" to BOJ Governor KazuoUeda’s "cautious" approach to policy normalization. The majority of other major stock markets in the region, such as mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan, were closed on holidays. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% ahead of Tuesday's holiday. Australia's benchmark index fell 0.1% despite the fact that trading was thinned out by holidays across several states, including New South Wales. U.S. S&P futures were 0.2% higher after the cash index reached a new record high on Saturday. The U.S. Dollar gained ground against European currencies. It used its momentum against yen as a way to recover from last week's 0.5% drop against a basket major counterparts. The euro fell 0.25% at $1.1714 and the pound sterling dropped 0.23% at $1.34385. The last time gold changed hands was around $3904 after the price had risen as much as 0.9% to a record-breaking $3,919.59. Bitcoin was trading at around $123,590 after its recent jump from $125,653.32 to Sunday. Geoffrey Kendrick is the head of Standard Chartered Bank's digital assets research. This year, bitcoin traded with "U.S. "This year, bitcoin has traded with 'U.S. Kendrick said, "I think bitcoin will continue to rise during the shutdown" and that it will reach $135,000 soon. The oil prices increased after OPEC+ announced that it would increase its production by 137,000 barrels a day (bpd), the same modest increase from October. This announcement came amid persistent fears of a looming glut in supply. Sources said that Russia wanted to increase output by 137,000 bpd in order to avoid price pressure, but Saudi Arabia preferred to double, triple, or even quadruple this figure to gain market share faster. Brent crude futures increased 1.3% to $65.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude rose by 1.4% to $61.71.
Gold surpasses $3,900/oz in first ever bids for safe-haven bids
Gold surged above $3,900 an ounce for the first time Monday. This was driven by demand from safe-haven investors following the fall of the yen and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates.
By 0208 GMT, spot gold had risen 1.1% to $3,929.91 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.2%, to $3.954.70.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the yen's weakness following the Japanese LDP election has made gold a more attractive safe-haven for investors.
The U.S. shutdown continues to cast a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook and its potential impact on GDP.
Waterer says that gold is the best asset to invest in under these conditions, especially with the Fed forecasting further rate cuts this month.
After fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won the election to lead the ruling coalition and become the new prime minister, the yen plunged the most against the dollar in five months.
A senior White House official stated on Sunday that the Trump administration would begin mass layoffs if U.S. president Donald Trump determines that negotiations with Congress Democrats to end a government partial shutdown "absolutely are going nowhere".
Fed Governor Stephen Miran again urged for a rate-cutting trajectory aggressive on Friday. He cited the impact of Trump's economic policy.
The gold price has increased by 49% this year, after rising 27% in 2024. This is due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed with gold, a lower dollar, and growing interest among retail investors looking for a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions.
Last month, the rally received a new boost after the Fed lowered rates by a quarter-point and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of the year.
Investors are pricing in an additional 25 basis-point cut in October and December with probabilities of 95% each.
Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty.
Spot gold first broke through the $3,000 per ounce level in March, and then $3,700 by mid-September. Many brokerages are bullish about the rally.
Silver spot rose by 1.2% at $48.53 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% at $1,623.88. Palladium gained 1.2% at $1,275.65.
(source: Reuters)