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China's steel exports set to reach record levels, threatening further tariff backlash

China's steel exports set to reach record levels, threatening further tariff backlash

China's exports of steel are expected to reach a record high in this year. This is despite predictions that trade barriers would cause shipments to drop. They also threaten to trigger a fiercer backlash from protectionists against the world's largest producer.

According to 11 analysts who had predicted earlier in the year that exports were going to fall, they expect to see a growth of 4% to 9% to between 115 and 120 millions metric tons this year.

China's record exports, which produce more than half the world's metal, highlight the need for new markets to absorb the metal, as its consumption peaked at the end of 2020, before the collapse of property prices.

Steelmakers are also concerned that trade barriers may continue to rise. Three analysts and one trader, who spoke under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue in China, believe that it is better to sell as much now as possible.

This fear could become self-fulfilling, as the export push reshapes flows globally and encourages countries to shut down their markets in order to support domestic steelmaking.

China Trade Remedies Information reports that 54 tariffs or other trade barriers will be imposed on Chinese steel starting in 2024. This is more than what was imposed between 2019 and 2023. Analysts believe that more exports will lead to further restrictions.

The European Union announced earlier this month that it would look for new ways to reduce steel imports. Mexico announced a plan on Thursday to increase tariffs on Chinese imports including steel.

PIVOT PIVOT PIVOT

The last peak in steel exports was in 2015. However, rising trade barriers as well as a boom in the Chinese property market that increased demand for construction steel reversed this trend. Steelmakers maintain exports by focusing on new markets with lower barriers or no barriers at all.

Baosteel or Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's largest listed company, reported last month that exports to emerging markets such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa are growing rapidly. The company forecasts 10 million tons of exports this year.

In the first seven-month period of this year, steel exports from Canada to Saudi Arabia rose by 24%, Malaysia by 14% and Thailand by 13%, respectively, compared with a year ago. Malaysia imposed antidumping duties on certain imports in July.

In a late-August note, the China Iron and Steel Association, backed by the government, said that China's exports fell 20% and 10% respectively in the first seven-month period to its major trading partners Vietnam and South Korea. Both countries have also implemented anti-dumping sanctions.

"It is a very brutal market for traders." There are very few orders coming from Vietnam or South Korea. We must now develop new markets, said a steel trader in east China.

Steelmakers in China are turning to simpler products such as steel billets - semi-finished blocks made of raw metal because they attract lower tariffs.

The exports of billets were three times greater in the first seven month of this year than they had been a year ago, and shipments of steel bars, which are used in construction, grew by 77%. Customs data revealed that hot-rolled wide thin steel strips, which are used in manufacturing, and often subject to tariffs fell by 23%.

Alexis Ellender is the senior lead for dry bulk insights, Kpler. She said that China's exports are suffering because of its shift to unfinished, lower-value products, despite their record volume.

Customs data revealed that steel exports increased 10% in volume during the first eight month of the year, but declined 1% in value.

"The rise in semis exports can be a sign of exports nearing their peak. Semis are more profitable to export than finished steel. It shows that the market is under pressure", said Tomas Gutierrez. He is head of data for consultancy Kallanish Commodities.

THE PEAK

The Chinese government is also opposed to the increasing exports of semifinished products. Beijing wants steelmakers add value, and is considering higher export taxes in order to discourage the shipment of lower-valued steel.

Some analysts believe that exports are likely to peak this year due to a combination of the new wave in protectionism and these factors.

"Overseas market saturation and trade barriers are increasing." Gutierrez said that selling overseas won't be any easier.

Kpler predicts that China's exports of steel will decline to between 100 and 105 millions tons by 2026. Three analysts predict volume will fall below 100 million.

Exports of around 100 million tonnes would still be higher than the total steel production in every other country except India.

Baosteel's general manager Baojun Lu said during a call to discuss earnings last month that "this year we have experienced record trade disputes, including anti-dumping duty."

But as a large steel company, we have to export."

(source: Reuters)