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China's carbon markets will introduce absolute emission caps in 2027
China will tighten up its carbon trading market, introducing absolute emission caps for the first-time in certain industries starting 2027. This was announced by China's Cabinet on Monday night. According to an opinion by the State Council, the absolute emissions caps will first be implemented in industries that have relatively stable carbon emission levels by 2027. China's national carbon market (ETS), or emissions trading scheme, will be largely established by 2030 with absolute emission caps and a mixture of free and paid allowances for carbon emissions (CEAs), the State Council said. CEAs currently are based more on benchmarks for carbon intensity that are gradually reduced, than absolute emission caps. A quota is given to each company and, if the actual emissions are higher than the quota in a compliance period, the company must purchase more allowances on the market. If the company's emissions are lower than expected, they can sell their excess CEAs. According to the opinion, without mentioning specific industries, by 2027 the ETS will cover all major industries that emit carbon. Analysts said that chemicals, petrochemicals and papermaking, as well as domestic aviation, would be included in the scheme. Analysts say that, despite the fact that China announced a previous expansion of its carbon market in September to include the industries of steel, aluminium, and cement, which would account for about 60% of China's greenhouse gas emission, the market's large number of free allowances has had a minimal impact on China's emissions. The ETS first came into effect in July 2021, and covered only the electricity sector.
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India prepares for export losses as new US tariffs threaten
Indian exporters should prepare for disruptions following a U.S. Homeland Security confirmed that Washington will impose an extra 25% tariff on all Indian origin goods starting Wednesday. This will increase trade pressure against the Asian nation. After President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs to punish New Delhi for its increased purchases of Russian crude oil in August, Indian exports could face U.S. duty of up 50%. This is among the highest Washington has imposed. According to Homeland Security's notice, the new duties will be applied to goods that are imported into the U.S. or removed from warehouses to be consumed as of 12:01 am EDT or 9:31 pm IST on Wednesday. In early trading, the Indian rupee fell 0.2% to 87.75 dollars per Indian rupee. The greenback was also down against other currencies. The benchmark equity indices were trading at a 0.8% decline. In the notification, it was stated that exceptions included in-transit shipments that were properly certified, humanitarian aid and items covered by reciprocal trade programmes. The notification reiterated the fact that this action was taken in response to India’s indirect support for Russia’s military incursions into Ukraine. The Indian Commerce Ministry has not responded to a request for comment regarding the latest notification. The government does not expect any relief in the short term or a delay of U.S. Tariffs, said an official from the Commerce Ministry who spoke under condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with media. The official said that exporters who are hit by tariffs will receive financial assistance, and they will be encouraged to diversify their markets to include China, Latin America, and the Middle East. The government has identified more than 50 countries to increase Indian exports. This includes textiles, food products, leather products, and marine products. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has pledged to not compromise the interests and livelihoods of farmers in India even if it means paying a high price. Modi also plans to visit China for the first time in seven years at the end of this month. EXPORTERS Seek Aid Exporter groups estimate that the hikes will affect 55% of India’s $87 billion worth of merchandise exports to America, but benefit competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and China. The U.S. customer has already stopped placing new orders. Exports could drop by 20-30% with these new tariffs from September, said Pankaj Chadha. Chadha said that the government had promised financial assistance, including increased subsidies for bank loans and support to diversify in the event financial losses. He said that exporters saw limited opportunities to diversify into other markets or sell on the domestic market. Analysts warn that even though proposed tax cuts in India would partially cushion the impact, a sustained tariff of 50% could have a negative effect on India's corporate profits and economy. This would lead to the steepest downgrades for earnings in Asia. Capital Economics stated last week that the economic growth of India would be affected by 0.8 percentage points if all U.S. Tariffs were implemented this year and in 2019. Last week, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated that trade negotiations are still ongoing. He also said that Washington's concerns over Russian oil purchases did not apply to other major purchasers such as China or the European Union. As of yet, the government has not issued any directives regarding the purchase of oil from Russia. Three refining sources say that companies will continue to purchase oil based on economics. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Sam Holmes and Nidhh Verma; Additional reporting by Swati Bha and Manoj Kumar.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets once again ask Trump: "Can he do this?"
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets like when central banks are able to steer economic policy without interference from politics, and they value data that is in line with reality. This faith helped the global stock market reach successive records highs in this month. But it was again shaken by Donald Trump's attack on the independence the U.S. Central Bank. Stock futures and equity markets in Europe and America fell after Trump announced he would fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for alleged irregularities in obtaining mortgages. After the news, long-term Treasuries dropped while short-term debt increased. This shows both a diminished confidence in the United States' long-term credit and an increased certainty that Trump will receive the "rocket-fuel" Fed rate reductions he has been seeking. Fed Funds futures are priced with 83% probability of a rate cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Trump, who last week was relieved of his penalty but not found guilty of fraud for his own property deals, wrote to Cook in which he said that the "American people must have complete confidence in the honesty of those who set policy." Cook, who has a term that runs until 2038 at the Fed, has vowed to remain, claiming the president does not have the authority to remove Cook. The legality of this move is not clear, but it follows a series of threats to remove Fed chair Jerome Powell. Trump does not have the legal authority, except for "cause", to dismiss the Fed chairman. This, along with the Fed's chief's expiring term in May, has tempered Trump's attacks on the central bank. The official of the Labor Department who was fired this month for delivering data on jobs that disappointed Trump was not so lucky. Trump continued to play the hit game, threatening new tariffs against countries with digital taxes. This is another headache for the European Union. The Trump administration is considering sanctions against EU officials or state officials who are responsible for the implementation of the landmark Digital Services Act. Today's data calendar is very light. The markets are focused on Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. This is a crucial test for the booming artificial intelligence market. Key developments on Tuesday that may influence the markets: – U.S. Treasuries 2-year auction – Earnings from Bank of Montreal and Foot Locker – Riksbank’s minutes of its August 19th monetary policy meeting
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India prepares for export losses as US imposes new steep tariffs on Wednesday
Indian exporters should prepare for disruptions following a U.S. Homeland Security confirmed that Washington will impose a 25% additional tariff on all Indian origin goods starting Wednesday. This will increase trade pressure against the Asian nation. Indian exports could face U.S. tariffs of up to 50 percent - one of the highest Washington has imposed - following President Donald Trump's announcement of extra tariffs in response to New Delhi's increased purchase of Russian oil. According to Homeland Security's notice, the new duties apply to goods that are imported into the U.S. or removed from warehouses for consumption as of 12:01 am EDT Wednesday or 9:31 pm IST. In the opening of trading, the Indian rupee fell 0.17% against the U.S. Dollar to 87.7275. The greenback also declined against other currencies. In the notification, it was stated that exceptions included in-transit shipments that were properly certified, humanitarian aid and items covered by reciprocal trade programmes. The notification reaffirmed that the action was taken in response to India’s indirect support for Russia’s military incursions into Ukraine. The Indian Commerce Ministry has not responded to an email asking for comment about the latest notification. The government does not expect any relief in the short term or a delay of U.S. Tariffs, said an official from the Commerce Ministry who spoke under condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with media. The official said that exporters who are hit by tariffs will receive financial assistance, and they will be encouraged to diversify their markets to include China, Latin America, and the Middle East. The government has identified more than 50 countries to increase Indian exports. This includes textiles, food products, leather goods and marine products. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has pledged to not compromise the interests and livelihoods of farmers in India even if it means paying a high price. Modi also takes cautious steps to ease his relationship with China, with his first trip in seven years scheduled for the end this month. Reporting by Swati Bhath and Manoj Kulkarni; editing by Lincoln Feast.
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Equinor Picks OneSubsea All-Electric Subsea Production System for North Sea Field
OneSubsea, a joint venture formed by SLB, Aker Solutions and Subsea7, has been awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract by Equinor for a 12-well, all-electric Subsea Production System (SPS) in the Fram Sør field, offshore Norway.The award follows a collaborative, year-long Front-End Engineering Design phase, where Equinor and OneSubsea jointly matured the project, culminating in the development plan and final investment decision (FID).As part of the resulting EPC scope, OneSubsea will deliver four subsea templates and 12 all-electric subsea trees, eliminating the need for hydraulic fluid supplied by the host platform and keeping topside modifications to a minimum.This approach is expected to unlock a cost-effective solution for the project while retaining topside space for additional, future expansion projects in the area.The project will be developed as a subsea tieback to the host platform Troll C in the North Sea, contributing to the security of energy supply from the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) to Europe.Benefitting from a host that is powered from Norwegian shores, the production from Fram Sør will have very low emissions.“Fram Sør is a breakthrough project for our industry, marking the first large-scale all-electric subsea production system. Not only do all-electric subsea solutions significantly reduce topside needs to make large-scale tiebacks such as the Fram Sør development possible, but they also hold the key to unlock more marginal resources through their reduced footprint and simplified operations,” said Mads Hjelmeland, chief executive officer of SLB OneSubsea.The contract is subject to regulatory approval of the plan for development and operations (PDO).
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Luxcara Reserves Siemens Gamesa Turbines for 1.5GW Offshore Wind Project
Luxcara has signed a capacity reservation agreement with Siemens Gamesa for the 1.5 GW Waterekke offshore wind project in the German North Sea.The agreement with the German-Spanish global market leader for wind turbines was concluded following an international tender. It covers the delivery of 97 turbines, each with a capacity of 15.5 MW, including power boost.After the award of the Waterekke offshore wind project, Luxcara also began investigating synergies with the neighboring Waterkant project, of approximately 300 MW, in the interests of an economically viable energy transition.Luxcara now sees potential in bundling procurement processes and contract awards, as well as in joint installation campaigns and coordinated operations. Given the advanced stage of the Waterekke project and the possibility of operational integration between the two projects, Luxcara is currently examining the use of Siemens Gamesa turbines for the smaller Waterkant project as well.For this option, Luxcara has additionally reserved 19 turbines of the same type.“Our primary goal is to successfully implement the energy transition. This includes investing in financially sound projects and reliably implementing them with low risk in collaboration with our partners.“With the award of our 1.5 GW Waterekke project in late summer 2024, we reached an important milestone, and we are pleased to have reserved 97 wind turbines from Siemens Gamesa for this project alone. To explore possible synergies, we are examining the possibility of using Siemens Gamesa turbines for the neighboring Waterkant project as well,” said Holger Matthiesen, Managing Director of the two project companies.The approval documents for the Waterekke project were submitted to the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) on time. The considered turbine change in Waterkant has been addressed with the relevant approval authorities and the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, and the project partners have been informed.Waterkant is a 300 MW offshore wind project on site N-6.7, located in the German Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) in the North-Sea. The bidding entity, Waterkant Energy, won the right to build the project in the German offshore wind auction in summer 2023.The Waterkant project is expected to be connected to the national transmission grid by the end of 2028 to generate clean electricity for approximately up to 400,000 households.In August 2024, the bidding entity Waterekke Energy won the right to build the neighboring 1,500 MW offshore wind project Waterekke on site N-9.3.Significant milestones for the site, including comprehensive geotechnical and environmental investigations, have already been completed. The project is scheduled to be connected to the national transmission grid in 2029 and will then supply up to 2 million households with green energy.Both auctions took not only financial criteria, but also social and environmental criteria into account. Together, the two offshore wind projects have a total capacity of around 1,800 MW, enough to cover the annual needs of up to 2.4 million households.Luxcara is thus making an important contribution to the German government’s target to expand offshore wind capacity to 30 GW by 2030, supporting the goal to achieve a renewable energy share of 80% in the country’s power mix in a cost-efficient manner.
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Iron ore demand is sluggish as Trump's tariffs fuel concerns
The price of iron ore futures was subdued Tuesday as new tariff threats by U.S. president Donald Trump fueled concerns about demand prospects. As of 0159 GMT on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded January iron ore contract was unchanged at 782.5 Yuan ($109.40), after reaching its highest level since August 14, on Monday. As of 0149 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore price on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.45% to $102.8 per ton. Trump stated on Monday that China must give magnets to the United States or "we will have to charge a 200% tariff" or something similar, amid a dispute over trade between the two countries. Trump has also threatened to impose "subsequent tariffs" on goods of countries with digital taxes if they do not repeal the legislation. These threats were made after the U.S. concluded trade agreements with several countries and areas after multiple rounds. This eased fears of a recession in the world that would hurt commodity demand. The price of iron ore has fallen in the last year due to a decline in demand from China, its largest consumer. China is struggling with deflation as well as low consumer confidence. The lower iron ore price has squeezed the profits of major miners. Fortescue, a mining company in Australia, reported its lowest annual profit in 6 years. BHP's profit was the lowest it has been in 5 years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.41%. Hot-rolled coils and wire rods both dropped 0.15%. Stainless steel gained 0.16%. The DCE's coking coal and other steelmaking components, such as coke, continued to gain, with gains of 1.25% and 0.4% respectively. This was due to lingering concerns about possible supply reductions. $1 = 7.1529 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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US dollar, Treasuries slide on latest Trump attack on Fed
Dollar and U.S. Treasuries fell in Asian trading Tuesday, after President Donald Trump said he would remove a Federal Reserve Governor. This announcement undermined confidence in U.S. Assets. After Trump announced on Twitter that he would remove Lisa Cook from the board of directors of the Federal Reserve, it was the latest of a series attacks on the independence of the central bank. Asian shares fell in tandem with Wall Street, as the prospects of a Fed rate reduction next month became less certain. U.S. Stock Futures declined. Bart Wakabayashi is the Tokyo branch manager of State Street. He said, "All this, including tariffs, is just one more reason why the U.S. cannot be trusted." "There is no credibility." The U.S. is the safest place to invest in the world because of this. It gives you pause if you are a responsible investor." The dollar fell 0.4% to 147.24 Japanese yen. The euro rose 0.3% to $1.165. The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes rose to 4.2887% from its U.S. closing of 4.275% Monday. In a letter posted by Trump on his Truth Social platform, he said: "I have determined there is sufficient reason to remove you from this position." Trump claimed that there was sufficient evidence to prove Cook's false statements in mortgage applications. Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell. Powell was first nominated by Trump in his first term as president and then by Biden for a second tenure. Trump, who does not have the legal authority for firing the Fed Chair except "for cause", is backing away from this threat as Powell approaches the end of his tenure as Fed Chief in May. Cook's departure from the Fed may accelerate the president's efforts to reshape the Fed. Her term was due to expire in 2038. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.2% after U.S. shares ended the previous session in a mild loss. Japan's Nikkei index sank 1.3%. Barclays BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and other major brokerages now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Fed funds futures are pricing 84% odds that a rate cut will occur in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Fed could still be influenced by data for August that is due to arrive before its meeting on September 16-17. Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the U.S. consumer prices reading due Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is the U.S. personal consumption prices reading, due on Friday. U.S. crude oil fell 0.4% to $64.56 per barrel. Gold traded at $3,378.09 an ounce, a slight increase. The S&P 500 E-mini futures were down by 0.17% to 6,444.5.
Gold prices rise after Trump's firing of Fed Cook
The dollar fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he would remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
Gold spot rose 0.2%, to $3,371.28 an ounce at 0309 GMT after reaching its highest level since the August 11 session earlier in that session.
The price of U.S. December gold futures remained unchanged at $3,418.90.
Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that Trump had once again put traders on edge with his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook. This has led to gold receiving additional safe-haven flows today.
There is a feeling that Trump could reshape the Fed to a more dovish-leaning body. Any resulting depreciation of the dollar or move down in yields will likely suit gold.
Gold is less attractive for overseas buyers as the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.2%.
Trump fired Lisa Cook on Monday, the first African American woman to hold the position of Federal Reserve Governor, for alleged mortgage lending irregularities.
Jerome Powell, Fed chair, hinted at a possible rate reduction during the U.S. Central Bank's next-month meeting. He said that the risks for the U.S. job market had increased, but that inflation was still a concern and that the decision was not final.
Gold that does not yield tends to increase in value when interest rates are low, which lowers the opportunity costs of owning bullion.
The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, is due to be released on Friday. This will provide more information on the U.S. interest rate path.
SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings increased 0.18% on Monday to 958.49 tons from 956.77 tonnes on Friday.
Other than that, spot silver increased 0.3% per ounce to $38.67, platinum remained flat at $1.341.83 while palladium rose 0.8% to $1.095.
(source: Reuters)