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Indian shares could open slightly lower due to concerns about the Middle East; earnings are in focus
Indian shares will open slightly lower?Monday due to rising oil prices, a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is offset by better than expected earnings from 'heavyweights' Reliance Industries & ICICI Bank. As of 7:59 am IST, the GIFT Nifty futures GIFc1 were trading at 24,297.5. This indicates that the Nifty 50 may open below Friday's closing price of 24,334.3. U.S. troops struck Iran for the ninth day in a row as the number of American?military casualties increased to three. Concerns grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 2.5%, topping $90 per barrel for a first time in more than a month. This is causing concern for economies that are import-dependent like India. The focus at home will be on earnings, after India's top four private banks (and oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries) announced their quarterly results over the weekend and after the market hours. Reliance Industries, owned by billionaire Mukesh ambani, beat expectations in the first quarter of net profit. This was due to strong performance across its retail, telecom, and oil-tochemicals businesses. ICICI Bank reported higher than expected earnings for the second quarter of this year, due to a stronger loan demand and lower provisions for bad debts. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and other private lenders in India also reported earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations. Jefferies reported that ICICI Bank surprised positively. Kotak Bank followed, then?Axis Bank. HDFC Bank's results were weaker. Last week, India's benchmark Nifty and BSE Sensex grew by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. This was due to IT stocks that had better than expected earnings. Meanwhile, heavyweights HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries climbed between 1.4% and 2.4%.
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Carney says Trump told him that Canada needs to control wildfires
U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had told Canadian prime minister Mark Carney that Canada must 'do better' at controlling Ontario wildfires, whose smoke has affected many U.S. state. Trump claimed that he had spoken to Carney on Sunday, at the FIFA World Cup Final they both attended. Trump said to reporters that he had a "good relationship" with Mark Carney but that they needed to put out the fires in New Jersey. "Maybe we should impose some tariffs or they could pay us some damages." The smoke from fires burning in Ontario has blanketed the United States, from the Midwest through the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Residents have been warned to stay inside as much as possible. Carney's Office did not respond immediately to a comment request on Trump's remarks. In a Saturday post on X,?Carney stated that?Canada is deploying more than 5,300 firefighters and using data and advanced thermal 'imaging? to support real-time detection efforts and mitigation. According to government data, approximately?5,9 million acres (2.4 millions hectares) of land in Canada has been burned by wildfires this season. According to climate experts, rising temperatures are driving wildfires across the globe. (Reporting and editing by Sergio Non, Michael Perry, and Hannah Lang in New York)
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What is China's next surprise on the oil market? Lower fuel imports and higher fuel exports: Russell
China's reaction to the Iran conflict is not surprising, but the degree to which the world's largest?crude oil importer reduced its oil imports and refinery production. China has a "strong record" of reducing crude imports to respond to rising prices and increasing arrivals when the price drops. The collapse of imports in June to their lowest level in nearly 10 years was dramatic. This is especially true when you consider that, despite the fact that crude prices spiked in the weeks following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in February, they did not reach the levels reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. According to official data, China's crude imports in June were 7,12 million barrels a day (bpd), which is the lowest level since October 2016, and down 41.3% compared with the same month last. A drop of this magnitude would normally have led to a huge drawdown on China's inventory, but that didn't occur. Refiners in China reduced processing rates in June to 12,47 million bpd, a 17.7% drop from the same period in 2025. This is the lowest level since March 2020 during the COVID-19 Pandemic. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles. However, an estimate can easily be calculated by subtracting the amount processed from total crude produced domestically and imported. This means that refiners have a total of 11,53 million bpd. The 12.27 million bpd they processed meant that approximately 940,000 bpd were drawn from inventory, up from around 500,000 bpd back in May. China added reserves to its first-half total despite drawing from stockpiles for the past two months. The surplus crude was around 530,000 barrels per day. Beijing's unofficial export restrictions of refined products were a major factor in China's ability to reduce refinery runs dramatically in June. This was seen as a response to ensure a sufficient supply of fuels for the domestic market, during the Iran conflict. According to Kpler's data, China exported 393,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light and medium distillates in June. This is slightly less than the 400,000 bpd exports in May, but higher than the 54-month-low of 338,000 bpd that was recorded in April. It is clear that China played a major role in adjusting the demand for crude oil throughout the current Iran Crisis, which saw the loss of approximately 10 million bpd of supply of crude and refined products due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China's exports have also been reduced since April, contributing to the tightness of product markets. What is China going to do to respond to the current crisis? Prices are key China could be planning another surprise for the markets if the answer is seen through the prisms of prices. China's crude imports will likely?recover' in August and September, as refiners have likely bought up the cargoes that were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the short ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The market expected a return of normal Middle East supply and therefore, a glut. Benchmark Brent futures fell to $70.14 per barrel on July 2. They had been as high at $126.41 a barrel at the end April. The return of hostilities on Monday morning saw Brent rise to $90.80 per barrel. China's refiners will likely reduce imports as crude prices rebound. This means lower arrivals in October, given the time lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered. What happens to China's refined products exports is the wildcard. Beijing is confident that it will be able to survive on its huge stockpiles, estimated at?least 1 billion barrels. China could also be tempted by the opportunity to take advantage of high margins in Asia. Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended July 17 at $143,03 per barrel, a $54.93 premium to the Brent closing prices and almost three times that $18.94 markup which?prevailed the day before U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran. Kpler has tracked shipments of light and medium distillates of 787,000 Bpd for July. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Brent oil reaches $90 as US and Iran intensify their attacks in Middle East
Brent oil prices jumped?3% Monday as the United States and Iran intensified their attacks in the?Middle East, which have?reduced energy shipments through the?Strait?of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose $2.69 or 3.05% to $90.79 at 2343 GMT. This is the highest Brent has reached since June 11. It also extends gains after it rose 15.9% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $84.68 per barrel, up by $2.19 or?2.65%. This is the highest price since June 12. Last week, front-month prices rose 15.5%. This is the biggest weekly increase since early March. The Middle East conflict escalated this weekend, with the U.S. launching a ninth night in a row of attacks on Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. allies Kuwait & Bahrain also reported further Iranian strikes. Both sides have targeted shipping traffic in recent days. The U.S. has said it is enforcing an Iranian naval blockade, while Iran says it targets vessels that violate its rules for navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This area handles about one-fifth of all global oil trade. The United Kingdom Maritime Trading Operations? agency reported early Monday that a vessel was on fire north of Oman's Kumzar. In a recent?note, Barclays' analyst Amarpreet Singh said: "The coming weeks and days will give a better picture of what level of oil exports can be sustained from the region in the face of renewed dual blockades." As things stand, oil markets seem to be complacent when it comes to the possible fallout of inventories. These are the most tight in the last five years, as opposed at the start of the war. LSEG data shows that four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, down from eight the day before. The data shows that at least three oil product tankers and a Very Large Crude Carrier have entered the Strait of Hormuz since Friday in order to load oil. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul; Florence Tan)
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South32 Q4 copper output declines, missing market estimates
South32, a diversified Australian mining company, reported lower fourth quarter copper production on Monday. This was below market expectations, due to the 'impacts of 'inclement weather that continue to impede mining operations in Chile at the Sierra Gorda Project. Heavy rainfall in March caused access to an area of mining to be restricted. South32 announced that the 'operating costs for fiscal year 2027 will be around 10% higher than the forecasted financial year 2026 due to the timing of an earlier announced one-off?payment for the workforce and higher diesel prices. Sierra Gorda, located in Chile’s mineral-rich Antofagasta Region, is jointly owned by Polish state copper producer KGHM, with a stake of 55%, while South32 owns the remaining 45%. The joint venture approved the expansion of a fourth milling line to increase processing capacity by about 25%. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $725 million between 2027 and 3030. South32 reported payable output of copper of 16,000 metric tonnes from its stake in the project Sierra Gorda for the three-month period ended June 30. This is down from the previous?17.700 tons and below the Visible Alpha consensus estimation of 17,500 tons. (Reporting from Nikita Maria Jio and Jasmeen ara Shaikh in Bengaluru, Editing by Christian Schmollinger.)
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Wildfires on France's Mediterranean Coast force hamlet evacuations
Local authorities reported that a wildfire spread rapidly through several towns near Frejus, France, on Sunday. It threatened homes and forced the evacuation of several hamlets due to'strong winds' and drought conditions. BFM TV reported that local prefect Simon Babre said, "The fire spread very quickly in this heatwave and extreme dryness." Prefect's Office said that the fire had burned about 180 hectares (445 acres), by Sunday evening. Television images showed large flames behind hillside villas that are typical of the French Riviera. Thick black smoke billowed over pine and cypress trees. The fire forced the suspension of train services between Toulon, a Mediterranean port, and Les Arcs. World Meteorological Organization warned last month that sustained high temperatures and low humidity, combined with dry vegetation, would increase the risk of wildfires. According to Climate Monitor, according to 1961-1990, the average high temperature in the town of Les Arcs where the fire was burning was 38 degrees Celsius. This is 11.4 degrees above the normal high temperature for July 19. Reporting by Manon C.; Writing by Michel Rose, Paris Editing Tomasz J.owski
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Two earthquakes in Peru have left at least five dead and twenty injured
The civil defense chief of Peru said that at least five people died and 21 were injured after two earthquakes struck a mountainous region. According to Peru's National Seismological Center, in a post posted on X, the quakes measuring magnitudes 5.1 & 3.7 hit Saturday night in Chupaca Province in Junin Region, approximately 300 km east of Lima. The center reported that the first earthquake struck at a depth of 24 km (15miles) and the second one at 18 km. The ?European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre earlier reported that the first ?earthquake had a ?magnitude of 5.6. Luis Vasquez is the head of Peru's National Civil Defense Institute. He told Exitosa, a local radio station, that "so far, we have verified five deaths and twenty injuries." Vasquez said that according to preliminary reports, about?48 houses had been destroyed or damaged and another 18 homes were also affected. Around 300 people are now being provided with tents. The homes in 'Chupaca' are generally made of adobe block construction. Vasquez said that emergency crews and firefighters arrived early on Sunday to clear the debris, as they were concerned about additional victims being trapped. The Peruvian coast is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a region that accounts for 85% of all seismic activity in the world. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Sumedha?Mukherjee)
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One person killed and 13 injured by Russian missiles that strike Kyiv
Officials said that Russian missiles hit?the Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Sunday morning, killing one person and injuring thirteen others as fires broke out throughout the city. As Ukraine's airforce warned of a missile threat, a series of powerful explosions shook the night. On Telegram, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that fires had broken out in a dormitory building, an apartment block and a grocery. Klitschko stated that several non-residential and warehouse buildings were damaged in the attack. In addition, parked cars and offices were set ablaze in "several" districts. Workers at one site swept through smouldering debris and sprayed bombed out apartments. Vlad, a resident of the area, said that he was inside his apartment at the time when a blast ripped off his balcony doors and hit him on his head. My grandmother is unable to walk. "How could I leave her behind and run away?" ?he said. State Emergency Service sent emergency workers to three different city districts. According to the military administration in Kyiv, two people were injured and there were also damages to warehouses. In recent weeks, Russian forces have intensified their ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and other cities as Ukraine is running low on the critical U.S. designed air defences that can shoot them down. (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry, Yuliia Dyesa, Andrii Peleschuk and Dan Peleschuk)
Iron ore prices fall on China demand fears and Sino-US tensions
Iron ore futures prices fell on Thursday, as traders considered the impact of trade tariffs between China and the United States. They also weighed concerns about a possible slowdown in demand from China's top consumer.
The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 2.17% lower, at 697.5 Yuan ($96.43).
As of 0318 GMT, the benchmark June iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.19% to $97.15 per ton.
Analyst Zhuo Guqiu at Jinrui Futures said that the price drop of steelmaking components was more dramatic than steel.
China Metallurgical News, a state-backed publication, cited officials of the steel association to say that the relevant authorities were actively advancing national crude steel production control.
China announced its plans to restructure the giant steel industry in March. However, it did not specify when or how much production would be cut.
This statement from the Steel Association has confirmed such expectations. Hot metal production is also expected to reach a high point soon.
Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production, which is a blast-furnace product.
Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell by 2.35% and 2.58 %, respectively.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 1%, hot-rolled steel coil dropped 0.87% and wire rod decreased 0.72%. Stainless steel gained 0.12%.
The iron market has seen a significant drop in demand despite Beijing's injection of a number of monetary stimuli on Wednesday to try and mitigate the damage that the trade war between the United States and China had caused.
The stimulus package is not a good sign for Sino-U.S. Trade Talks, as it suggests a readiness for the worst-case scenario. An analyst said this under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue.
(source: Reuters)