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Goldman Sachs lowers its aluminium price forecast due to weaker growth prospects

Goldman Sachs reduced Monday its forecast for aluminum prices in this year. Its economists had downgraded their global growth forecasts, including those for the U.S.A. and China after the Trump administration increased tariffs.

The bank stated in a report that it now expects the price of aluminium to drop to an average monthly low of $2,000 per metric ton in Q3 2025.

Goldman predicts that prices will rebound to $2300 per metric tonne (/t) in December 2025. This is a significant increase from its previous forecast of $2650/t. London Metals Exchange aluminium traded at $2,392/t on Monday 1300 GMT.

Since his return to the White House, U.S. president Donald Trump has either imposed or floated a number of global tariffs, including 25% tariffs for steel, aluminum and auto parts, along with major tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China.

Aluminium is a lightweight, corrosion-resistant metal that plays an important role in many industries, including electronics, transportation, and packaging.

Trump announced on Sunday that the tariff rate for imported semiconductors would be announced this week.

Goldman forecasted a surplus on the global aluminium markets of 580,000 tonnes in 2025 compared to its previous forecasts of a deficit of 76,000 tons.

This was due to a revision downward of its forecast for global total aluminum demand growth to 1,1% year-onyear in 2025, and 2,3% in 2026. The bank is expecting a hit because the global GDP will be weaker. It had previously forecast demand growth of 2,6% this year and 2,4% in 2026.

Goldman still expects aluminum prices to rise after 2025 but not by as much as they estimated previously, because the additional supply that will be built up in 2025-2026 is expected to help moderate the increase.

Goldman estimates that the aluminium market will enter a deficit of 722,000 tons in 2027. (Reporting from Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Brijesh Patel in New York; editing by Kirby Donovan, Andrea Ricci and Kirby Donovan)

(source: Reuters)