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Saudi Aramco sells crude oil to Asian refiners outside of Hormuz, according to sources
Saudi Aramco offers crude oil outside the Strait of Hormuz through private negotiations to some asian refiners, according to two sources familiar with the matter. This is similar to the strategy adopted by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co of United Arab Emirates. Sources said that Aramco was in rare talks with buyers about supplying Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude via STS transfers near Fujairah, UAE. One of them stated that the cargoes would be loaded in September. It wasn't immediately clear how Aramco transported its cargoes to Fujairah. These offers are just the latest indication that 'crude supplies are finding a way to get around the long-term disruption of the 'Strait of Hormuz. Aramco declined ?to comment. Aramco also diverted its Arab Light Crude to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu, for export ever since the Iran War began. It also offered the grade in Egypt's Mediterranean port Sidi Kerir after attacks on the Red Sea by the Iran-aligned Houthis. Aramco has seen its market share in India fall due to disruptions in supply from the Strait of Hormuz, and Red Sea as a result of the U.S. and Israel's war on Iran, and Houthi attacks against vessels. ADNOC sold more than 100,000,000 barrels of oil through tenders, a result of the sustained shipping from within?the Gulf into waters outside the Strait. The arrangement allows 'Asian refiners' to receive crude oil without having to send their own tankers through the Strait of Malacca, where safety concerns have prevented many shipowners entering.
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Copper prices reach six-month high on low inventories
The London Metal Exchange's inventories, which are at their lowest since February, have led to concerns about copper availability. Prices rose Monday by the most in six months. Benchmark copper prices increased by 1.1% to $14,310 per metric ton in official rings. This was up from a previous high of $13,396. Prices for the metals used in construction and power industries reached an all-time record high of $14,527.5 per metric ton in January. Stocks at LME-approved warehouses Since May, copper exports to the United States have decreased by half to less than 210.000 tons. This is because traders are moving the metal to the United States to avoid potential tariffs. If you have cancelled warrants, or metal that is earmarked for delivery at 50%, it means more copper will be leaving the LME system. Although the official data has not yet been published, we are expecting record-high imports in July. "They've been high for the whole year," said Albert Mackenzie. The traders stated that premiums or reversed prices for copper near-term contracts compared to?longer dated forwards? should begin to attract metals to the LME. Cash Copper Contract Premium The three-month futures closed Friday at $416.29, the highest level since November 2021. On Monday, the LME cash copper contract reached a new record high of $14,830 per ton. On Friday, copper deliveries to LME storages totaled 3,700?tons compared to outflows of only 850?tons. Copper stocks are 735,470 short tonnes or 667,207 metric tons in Comex registered warehouses Import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in February 2017 have increased nearly 700%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors copper inventories in other warehouses. Since the middle of March, the number of tons has dropped by more than 80% to 69 731. The Yangshan premium The price of copper in China has dropped to $90 per ton, down from $115 on July 22. However, it is still 350% higher than January. The dollar price of industrial metals is cheaper for holders other currencies due to a weaker U.S. dollar. Nickel grew 0.3% and tin 0.5%. (Reporting and editing by Janane Venkatraman, Shreya Biwas and Shreya Biswas; Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai)
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France offers tax incentives to companies that are affected by wildfires
Sebastien lecornu, the French prime minister, announced on Monday tax breaks for businesses affected by recent wildfires that ravaged Southern France. He said that companies of all sizes have been affected by the "severe fires" that have ravaged large areas of the country. He said that the government had approved a budget of EUR12 million ($13.91m) to help towns relocate residents whose homes were destroyed. Lecornu announced the news in Merignac near Le Porge in southwest France, where hundreds homes were destroyed in a massive fire last month. Lecornu was booed by dozens in Le Porge as he visited that area early on Monday morning. Residents criticised the response of the government and accused authorities of prioritising wealthy areas. Last month, a massive wildfire in southwest France, with an 'amplitude that hasn't been seen for decades, destroyed 50,000 hectares and burned down a few hundred houses. It also forced the evacuation of up to 220,000 people. After a series of?severe heatwaves fuelled by climate changes, the vegetation was left tinder dry and prone to wildfires.
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Gold prices rise on weaker dollar and fading Fed hike expectations
Gold prices rose on Monday, as a weaker dollar and diminishing expectations of an increase in U.S. Federal Reserve rates next month boosted bullion. Gold spot rose 0.5%, to $4.398.58 an ounce at 1032 GMT. Prices reached a two-month high in the last week. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery edged up 0.4% to $4,455.50. Gold is now cheaper for those who hold other currencies than the U.S. dollar index. "Softer 'inflation', employment and consumer data reduce the risk of another hike. This strengthens the case that the Fed may end up cutting rates," said Ole Hansen. He is the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The dollar has shown signs of rolling over after its recent strength. This removes?another significant headwind for gold." The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike next month is unlikely to happen due to the unexpected decline in U.S. employment and tame inflation rates. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that "U.S. gas prices are still above $4/gallon and will continue to exert pressure on the inflation data for the next report." CME's FedWatch?Tool revealed that markets are now pricing in 31% of a rate hike for September, down from the 51% they had priced in one month ago. Gold, which doesn't pay interest, tends to be supported by lower interest rates. Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Fed's meeting in July, which is due on Wednesday. These will provide further information on the central bank’s policy outlook. A diplomatic source reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoys met with Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators on Sunday in Cairo, to?advance his Gaza peace plan?, even though Israel continued its airstrikes. Silver spot rose 1.5% per ounce to $65.61. Platinum rose 0.7%, to $1759.72 an ounce, while palladium increased 1.6%, to $1333.25 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Joyjeet Das, and Dharna Baffna from Bengaluru)
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Retail risk
What is important in the U.S. and global markets today by Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets Today, we begin a relatively quiet week in the wake of the first decline in U.S. Retail Sales in nine months on Friday. This will be followed by the second-quarter results of Home Depot, Target, and Walmart later in the week. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast where we talk about the retail sales missed and much more. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear our journalists discuss all of the latest news from markets and finance. RETAIL RISK Amazon's "Prime Day", a discount day for its customers, was brought forward from July to June. The reading is in line with the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a decline in consumer confidence. This has been combined with the subdued inflation data released last week to reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase for September. Oil prices have risen in recent weeks due to the standoff with Iran. This could change the picture before the Fed's next meeting, but for now the rate relief has kept Wall Street stock indexes at record highs. Donald Trump said that despite the lack of a breakthrough on the Iran conflict over the weekend, he was willing to pay a little more for gas in order to see the conflict through. On the Fed front, we should be getting minutes from July's split meeting on Wednesday and an industrial production figure tomorrow. Japan's 10-year borrowing rates reached a three-decade peak on Monday, despite the fact that Japanese GDP was well below expectations with an annualized increase of 1.1% for the second quarter. The Bank of Japan's plans to raise rates may be complicated by a sputtering economy, in part due to high energy prices. However, the yen remained firm on Monday, as the Fed's view was dominated by a weaker dollar. Chart of the Day China's economy lost momentum in the second half of the year, as retail sales and industrial output both slowed. Extreme weather disruptions combined with persistently low domestic demand renewed pressure on policymakers. China's 1.4 billion-strong population will not be able to spend again as long as the property market is in a slump. New home prices were down 0.1% and 3.2% compared to a year ago, respectively. Watch today's events * New York Fed Manufacturing Survey for August (8.30 am EDT) * Canada July CPI (8 a.m. EDT) Want to receive Morning 'Bids in your email every morning? Subscribe to the newsletter. Follow us on LinkedIn or X. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan).
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On Independence Day, the search for victims of the Indonesia earthquake is underway.
Residents in villages?in eastern Indonesia?hit by a deadly earthquake that killed 68 people waited for?help?on?Monday as rescuers searched through collapsed structures to find people trapped under the rubble. Berton SP Panjaitan of Indonesia's disaster management agency said that the death toll had been raised from 54 to 68 late on Monday. He added that over 200 people were injured. Many people are afraid to go back to their homes because of the aftershocks. Panjaitan reported that residents in East Nusa Tenggara were jolted by nearly 1,600 aftershocks as of Monday. The tremor cast a dark shadow on Indonesia's Independence Day celebrations. Geophysics agency of Indonesia reported a magnitude 5.6 earthquake in the area on Monday morning. The quake caused landslides, and roads were blocked in the southernmost province of Indonesia. This included Sikka and Manggarai. Firmus Woge (64), a farmer from a village near the Ende region affected by the earthquake, was treated for asthma aggravated because of the panic caused by the quake. He was having trouble breathing overnight. "But it's getting even worse after this morning's earthquake," he gasped for breath. Emilianus Oro (56), a farmer from Ranukolo Village, told reporters that in tents nearby, 70 residents, mostly women, were without clean water. This led to children getting diarrhoea. He claimed that one elderly person suffered a stroke, and the residents had not received any aid. Veronika, 22 was swaddling her baby in a blanket with her mother in the back seat of a pickup truck, as her home was no longer habitable. She said, "I only eat rice and nothing else." We need help as soon as we can. "We are only salt farmers." SEARCH WILL CONTINUE Panjaitan stated that the search would continue on Monday despite no reports of missing persons being received. Fathur Rahman is the?chief of the Sikka capital Maumere's rescue office. He said on Monday that the search will be centered on aerial monitoring? for anyone who has gone missing, using?a helicopter?and an extrication tool?. Panjaitan reported that authorities were preparing planes for the delivery of aid, such as tents and food. Panjaitan said that the quake had damaged 500 homes. Benjamin Paulus Octavianus said that Indonesia will also build a?emergency field hospital in various areas. Benjamin stated that neurosurgeons and orthopedic surgeons are needed to treat broken bones and head injuries. I DON'T THINK ABOUT IT ANYMORE On Monday, in Jakarta, some 1,500 km (930 mi) west of disaster zones, President Prabowo Subito presided over a celebration marking Indonesia's 1945 independence from Japanese rule. Residents of an Ende village who fled their village in fear of tsunamis took their mattresses and clothes to higher ground. Gervas, a 42-year-old resident from Ende, was asked about his feelings about Independence Day celebrations. He replied: "I don’t think about it anymore. I only think about my wife and 4-year old twins." Reporting by Anandateresia and Stanley Widianto, with editing by David Stanway and Saad sayeed.
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Zambia claims to have arrested opposition figures during the night of elections
The?government's statement said that the Zambian police had arrested several prominent opposition figures during the night of the national elections. They were accused of posing an imminent threat to the state. On?Monday, partial results from Thursday's presidential and legislative elections were still being counted. President Hakainde hichilema was in the lead. The election will be a test to see if Hichilema can win a second term as the country's major copper producer. Brian Mundubile said that heavily armed individuals had raided the residence of his main rival after the elections. He described it as an assault on his life. In a late-Sunday statement, the government stated that Mundubile was at 'the scene of arrests when 11 people were arrested, and that shots fired by law enforcement agents from within the building resulted in an exchange. The report said that individuals were found in possession of "high-grade military ammunition, weapons and other materials to be used in armed rebellion"?and had been under surveillance since months. The government has named six people it says are in custody, including Mundubile's spokesperson. According to the statement, "senior members of certain political parties in Zambia" were also arrested. The opposition had called for the safe release of some members of Mundubile’s inner circle, who they claimed had been arrested or disappeared. The government was accused by opposition parties and civil societies groups of increasing repression 'in the lead up to the elections,' including limiting their meeting and campaigning activities. The government denied these accusations. The government has denied the accusations.
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Dollar slips, shares remain steady as markets reduce Fed rate risk
On Monday, global shares rose and the dollar dropped to its lowest level in a year after a series of'soft' U.S. data, which included an unexpected decline?in retail sales, led markets to reduce their bets on an impending rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group's FedWatch, a hike in the next month has been priced at 30%. This is down from 50% a few weeks ago. STOXX, a benchmark index of 600 large European companies, rose 0.04% on the back of resource stocks, as gold prices increased. In the US, Nasdaq and S&P futures both gained 0.5%. The?Korean won was relatively flat after U.S. president Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to reduce joint military drills with Korea. South Korean markets, however, were closed on a holiday. After last week's gains, oil prices are mixed. Iran called on the U.S. on Saturday to accept defeat while Trump encouraged Americans to accept higher gas prices while the conflict continues. Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli strikes killed at least 11 people in southern Lebanon Saturday. These are some of the most deadly attacks since the country signed a U.S. mediated peace framework agreement with Israel. Brent crude rose 1% last week to $89.42 a barrel, after rising 6% the week before. U.S. oil reversed its earlier losses and is now up 0.5%. The U.S. will try to calm down the situation whenever oil prices rise above $100. This is the base case, according to Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at AMP. The risk is that there won't be a sustainable peace deal and the flow of oil from the Middle East will remain down by 10%-15% compared to normal levels. We will also have to pay higher oil prices due the depletion of reserves. FED RATE risk is decreasing. The stock market's bullish rally has been fueled by the diminishing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next month. U.S. retail sale fell for the first time in nine months and consumer sentiment deteriorated more than expected in July, contributing to lower inflation. Investors scrutinise U.S. consumer strength as earnings are lower this week. This week, the main data point is the August S&P PMIs to determine whether the acceleration of U.S. business activity at mid-year can be sustained. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fell after a mixed week last week. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury fell 2 basis points, to 4.154%. It had fallen 3 basis point?last week and reached a low of?4.0977%. The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds fell to 4.688% after rising by 4 basis points in the previous week. The dollar has been weakened by the recent soft data, and the euro hit a two-month record of $1.1595. Australian and New Zealand dollar also reached 10-week highs at $0.7105 apiece and $0.5910 respectively. Gold prices rose 0.43%, to $4,394 per ounce, after a 0.8% increase last week. Reporting by Lawrence White, Stella Qiu and Stephen Coates. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Gareth Jones and Stephen Coates.
Copper prices reach 6-month high on low inventories
On Monday, copper prices reached their highest level in over six months due to concerns about the availability of metals on the London Metal Exchange where inventories have been at their lowest since February.
Benchmark copper was up?0.9% to $14,290 per metric ton as of 0923 GMT. It had previously reached a high of $13,396. Prices for the metals used in construction and power industries reached an all-time record high of $14,527.5.
Stocks at LME-approved warehouses
If you see metal marked for delivery at 50% or cancelled warrants, it means that more copper will be leaving the LME system.
Although the official data has not been published yet, we expect record imports in July. "They've been high for the entire year," said Albert Mackenzie.
However, traders said that premiums or 'backwardations' for nearby copper contracts compared to longer-dated forwards would start to attract metals to the LME.
Cash Copper Contract Premium
On Friday, copper deliveries to LME storages totaled 3,700?tons compared to outflows of only 850?tons.
Copper stocks are 735,470 short tonnes or 667,207 metric tons in Comex registered warehouses
The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors copper inventories in other warehouses.
The Yangshan premium
The weaker dollar has a positive impact on industrial metals, as it makes commodities priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Lead rose 0.4%, while zinc gained 0.2%, bringing the price to $3,766. Tin increased by 0.3%, bringing it to $56,345; and nickel climbed 0.3%, bringing it to $16,860.
(source: Reuters)