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Gold drops as Mideast conflict dampens inflation hopes
Gold prices fell?on Friday as an escalating Middle?East war fueled fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in this year. This surpassed recent optimism about easing inflation. By 0729 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.9% to $4,024.60 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.6% to $4.029.50. Jigar Trivedi is a senior research analyst with IndusInd Securities. He said that June's inflation numbers did not reflect the impact the latest escalation of the?U.S. -Iran conflict has had on the economy. After reimposing its naval blockade, the U.S. launched a series of two-wave attacks on Iran’s coastal defences and missile sites. Iran responded by launching attacks against the U.S. In what it described as an "existential conflict" with the United States, Iran has attacked military sites in neighboring countries. The oil price has risen by?11% this week alone, raising concerns about inflation. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but it's no longer attractive in an environment of high interest rates. U.S. consumer inflation and producer inflation both slowed down in June amid a drop in energy prices, confirming that inflation had been?subsiding' before the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, the moderated inflation rate was not enough to convince the financial markets that a Fed interest rate increase this year is unlikely. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that traders still price in a 73% chance of a Fed hike in December. Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Wednesday that she was "prepared to take action" if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also declared his determination for inflation to be brought down, without revealing how. Investors will be watching for comments from Fed Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who are due to speak later that day. Silver spot fell by 1.7%, to $56.78 an ounce. Palladium fell 1.4% and platinum 1.3%, respectively, to $1,296.29. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Rashmi Anich and Swati verma from Bengaluru)
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Nickel prices rise on fears over sulphur supplies via Hormuz
Nickel reached a three-week peak on Thursday as concerns over traffic disruptions?throughout the Strait of Hormuz sparked fears of sulphur shortages and threatened a key raw material for production. The benchmark three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange rose 2.57%, to $17.235 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. The price had risen by up to 3.14% in the previous session. This was the largest increase since May, and the highest since June 23. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded nickel contract was up 3.01% to 132,940 Yuan ($19641.85) per ton. "Sulphur?tightness?expectations are fermenting once again." This is mainly due to an increase in the?cost expectation for high-pressure acid leaching, which is a process that is used to extract nickel ore. Indonesia, which is the world's largest nickel producer, depends on the Middle East to provide about 75% the sulphur needed in sulphuric acids for leaching metals from ore. The U.S.-Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as military operations, have caused a disruption of shipments along this vital shipping route. The copper price was stable, helped by a weaker U.S. Inflation data and the?hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve. Supply concerns and recent withdrawals from LME warehouses also helped. The metal rose by 0.27% at the LME, and fell by 0.23%?at the SHFE. Data released on Wednesday revealed that U.S. producer prices had their largest decline in 14-months in June. This is the latest in a series of U.S. reports which have dampened expectations for Fed rate hikes. Reduced borrowing costs tend to boost economic activity, which in turn can help metal demand. Aluminium grew by 0.68% on the LME, while zinc climbed 0.85%, and lead rose 1.19%. Tin also gained 1.35%. Aluminium was unchanged on SHFE. Zinc lost 0.68%. Lead added 0.38%. Tin fell 1%.
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Russian regions report death and injuries after another Ukrainian drone attack
As Kyiv continues its campaign against the 'Russian energy infrastructure, authorities in three Russian regions have reported deaths and injuries caused by Ukrainian drones and rocket strikes. Mikhail Yevrayev, the governor of 'Yaroslavl Region,' 250 km (155 miles) east from Moscow, where an oil refinery has been repeatedly attacked, said one man was killed and four others injured. He claimed that 19 drones had been?downed in the area, but did not specify which targets they were aimed at. Russian media reported that there were casualties in the Volga River region of Saratov after a drone attack on the city of Engels. Engels is home to an airbase which has been repeatedly attacked by Ukraine over the past few years. The governor of Bryansk Region, in Russia's west, near the Ukraine border, confirmed that a 15 year old girl and her grandma were killed by a rocket attack on the village Suzemka. A third person was injured. In recent weeks, Russia has experienced acute fuel shortages in all 11 time zones as long-range Ukrainian drone attacks hit its oil refineries. Ukraine claims it wants to limit the oil revenues that Russia uses to fund its four-year war on its neighbor, despite the fact that thousands of Ukrainians have been killed in Russian strikes across the southeast Ukraine. Both sides deny that they are targeting civilians. Officials in Ukraine said that Russian 'ballistic missiles' struck two districts of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv at dawn on Thursday. The fires started and two people were killed. Reporting by Felix Light, writing by Philippa Fletcher; editing by Philippa Light
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The tourist season has hit the Greek islands and they are experiencing a drought.
Seven Greek Islands in the Aegean have declared drought emergency this year. This is to conserve?water, as climate change causes summers to be hotter and rain more irregular. Authorities are now wondering if there will be enough rain to support the thousands of tourists that strain water supplies just as locals are in dire need. Astypalaia is an island in the shape of a butterfly, located east of mainland Greece. It relies on bottled drinking water and was not affected by the rains that fell in the north and west of Greece, giving the country the wettest winter it has experienced since 2022. According to local authorities' data, Astypalaia, in the southeast Aegean region, experienced the second-driest year since 2020. This created a dilemma for local officials. The island's only water reservoir, built in the 1990s, is surrounded by dry hills with sparse low shrubs. FARMERS RETURN TO WELLS In April, authorities cut off Evdokia Paltianou's access to a manmade lake in order to conserve?water. Her orchard's vegetables withered because she had to rely solely on the brackish water she pumped out of her well. Palatianou said, "Unless it rains I won't be planting anything" as he stood next to an old tree that was once full of mandarins in the village of Livadi on the coast, which is the main fertile area of the island. The lake that supplies water to Livadi, and the main tourist city of Chora (the island's capital), for household use, irrigation, and other purposes, contains now around 150,000 cubic meters, or a sixth its storage capacity. It would last about five and half months if you consume 900 cubic meters per day in summer. Komineas reported that the authorities declared a water crisis in May in order to expedite a temporary desalination facility with a daily production of 600 cubic meters for Chora. They also blocked irrigation to farmers in Livadi in order to protect the lake's reserve until autumn. He said that they would reconnect farmers if the Livadi Reservoir is refilled with rain. CONSUMPTION SOARS IN THE HIGHEST SUMMER MONTHS The Copernicus European Drought Observatory's map of Astypalaia, which was published in June, shows the area in orange as an early indicator of drought. In the village of Analipsi, on the east coast of the island, farmers fill tanks with water or use borehole water that is low quality. Desalination plants that supply tap water in the area were unable to meet the needs of a population that grew from 1,400 people in midsummer to 7,000 by the end of summer. A second temporary facility, located in?Chora, was built in anticipation of a permanent desalination system that will be constructed at the end of this year. On Greek islands, dozens of desalination units are being installed. ?omineas admitted that the temporary plant was expensive, but said it was necessary in case of drought. He said, "I was worried about what would happen if it didn't rain again this year." HOTELS CONSIDER RESOURCE-SAVING MEASURES Some hoteliers in Astypalaia are already taking action to save water. Maria Alkalai (42), who runs a hotel in Chora with views of the castle, the Aegean sea and the hillside, offers guests who choose to skip the daily cleaning a five-euro voucher. She said that "clients have embraced" the idea. She imagined a second island hotel that would have a cistern to collect rainwater in place of a pool or jacuzzi. Stavros papastavrou, the Environment Minister, has approved 15 million-euros ($17million) for desalination and grid upgrades, as well as water tanks, on nine of Greece's 200+ inhabited islands. This includes 1.5 million euros for Astypalaia. He briefed Luxembourg's environment ministers on water resilience in June. He said that water was not a theoretical issue for Greece. It is about the security of the country, its economic growth, and protecting local communities. According to the National Centre for Scientific Research “Demokritos” in Athens, droughts could worsen by 2049 due to global warming and increased water scarcity.
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British Steel is nationalised by Britain to protect domestic steelmaking
In an attempt to protect the future of steel production, the UK government announced in a statement on Thursday that it had 'nationalised' British Steel, which was previously owned by Chinese investors. British Steel's public ownership is necessary for the UK to safeguard its national interests, according to the government. "British Steel" is a part of the fabric and strength of Britain. The decision today secures the future for steelmaking in Britain, protects "skilled" jobs and safeguards an important national capability," said Keir starmer, the outgoing prime minister. In April 2025, the 'government' took over the operational control of British Steel, from its Chinese owners Jingye. This was done to prevent the closure of Scunthorpe, a steelworks located in northern England, and protect the 2,700 jobs in the plant, as well as thousands of others in the supply chain. The plant is the last primary steelmaking facility in the country. It supplies rail, construction and automobile industries. However, it has struggled in recent years with high energy prices in Britain and an oversupply of steel on the global market. Starmer stated that his government would introduce legislation in May of this year to allow the company to be taken over by the state after it failed to find a buyer. The company was privatised under Margaret Thatcher's regime in 1988. It said that the government appointed a leadership team to 'focus on stabilising operations and managing health and safety. They will also maintain production and work with management, unions, and staff in order to make British Steel an economically sustainable and low-carbon enterprise. Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, said: "British Steel now belongs to the British people and our focus is the future." (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sonali Paul, and Akanksha Kushi from Bengaluru)
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Bonds cheer lower inflation as Asian shares drop on chipmaker drag
?Asian stocks fell on Thursday, as a selloff in chipmakers obscured stellar earnings by industry leader TSMC. Meanwhile,?bonds benefited again from a benign reading of?U.S. Inflation that reduced the likelihood of a rate hike. As the U.S. finished its latest attacks on Iran, oil prices dropped. In recent days, the Middle East has been rife with hostilities. Washington launched attacks against Iran while Tehran targeted U.S. bases located in Kuwait and Jordan. Brent crude futures last fell 0.5% to $84.5 per barrel, but rose 11% in the past week. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), world's biggest contract manufacturer of advanced AI chip, reported a 77% increase in the second?quarter profit to a record which was far beyond market expectations. TSMC's stock rose 1.2% ahead of the results but it was not enough to reverse the decline in Asian chipmakers. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6.2% due to weakness at Samsung, which was down 6.6% and SK Hynix (down 9%). Japan's Nikkei dropped 3%. China's Hang Seng Index broke the trend by gaining 1.8%. Brian Heavey is an equity trader at JPMorgan. He wrote in a report that he was "seeing aggressive pullbacks in Memory/Hardware". Don't believe there is a 'negative headline' that's driving the semis/hardware sale. "It just shows how high the bar is for semis earning." Overnight, ASML shares, the world’s largest supplier of equipment used to manufacture high-tech computer chip, ended 0.4% lower despite its raising their 2026 sales predictions and pledging a capacity increase. Wall Street gained overnight when investors shifted from semiconductors to Magnificent Seven stocks, banks and other major lenders after strong earnings. Asia, however is more susceptible to the chip selling-off due to its greater exposure to semiconductor stocks. Stock futures for the entire region are up by 0.2%. In Asia, Wall Street futures were mostly flat. BONDS CHEER COOL INCLAIMATION Surprisingly weak U.S. consumer inflation data a day before added to the benign figures for the PPI in June. The markets have now priced out an imminent rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve to only 10% from 43% at the beginning of the month. Oil prices are rising on renewed Middle East hostilities, and the 'pullback' in inflation could only be temporary. Bond investors focused, however, on the cooler inflation data. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points, to 4.1514%. They had fallen 14 bps in the previous two days. Ten-year Treasury yields increased by 1 basis point to 4.5594% after falling 7 basis points over the last two days. The dollar fell, except against the beleaguered Japanese yen. The dollar index remained steady at 100.52 after dropping 0.4% overnight to its lowest level since June 18. The yen was hovering at 162.15, just below the 40-year low of 162.84, as speculators remain cautious of Japanese intervention. The pound reached a two-month high on the expectation that Andy Burnham will choose a conservative finance minister when he is named Labour Party leader, which is expected to happen on Friday. The pound was unchanged at $1.3532 after a 1% increase overnight. Gold fell 0.8% to $4,027 per ounce. (Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Lincoln Feast)
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Kashagan Oil Operator says arbitration prevents Kazakhstan from enforcing fine
The operator of Kazakhstan's Kashagan Oilfield announced?on Thursday? that an international arbitral tribunal has issued a restraining order prohibiting Kazakhstan from enforcing an environmental fine. The Kazakh Justice Ministry announced on Tuesday that Kashagan's operator must pay a fine of $4.90 billion ($2.3 trillion tenge) by July 20, 2012. The country is involved in arbitration with oil companies that work on its oilfields. It accuses them of environmental violations and corrupt practices. The North Caspian Operating Company, Kashagan’s operator, stated in a statement: "The Arbitral Tribunal has issued a Restraining Order which prohibits the Republic to take any measures to enforce fines?while arbitration is still pending." "NCOC, the Contracting Companies and their representatives reject the fine and the allegations that underlie it and will contest them by any means available." North Caspian Operating Company, a joint venture between Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, as well as China's CNPC is a multi-national?venture. Kazakhstan won an arbitration in January concerning the Karachaganak?field. It was seeking to recover around $4 billion. (Reporting and writing by Mariya Goreyeva, Felix Light and Vladimir Soldatkin; editing by Jacqueline Wong & Tomaszjanowski)
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Gold drops as Mideast conflict dampens inflation hopes
Gold prices fell?on Friday as a Middle?East conflict escalated, fueling fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in this year. This tempered recent optimism about easing inflation. By 0518 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.8% to $4,029.29 an ounce. U.S. gold for August delivery fell 0.4% to $4034.40. The latest escalation of the?U.S.Iran conflict has not been reflected in June's inflation numbers, according to Jigar Trivedi. He is a senior research analyst with IndusInd Securities. After reimposing its naval blockade, the U.S. launched a series of two-wave attacks against Iran's missile and coastal defence sites. Iran responded by attacking U.S. military bases in neighboring countries as part of what it termed an "existential conflict" with America. The oil price has risen by 11% this week alone, raising concerns about inflation. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but it's no longer attractive in an environment of high interest rates. U.S. consumer inflation and producer inflation both slowed down in June amid a drop in energy prices, confirming that inflation had been?subsiding' before the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, the financial markets did not believe that a Fed rate increase this year was possible due to the moderated inflation. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that traders still price in a 73% chance for a Fed hike in December. Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Wednesday that she was "prepared to take action" if the inflation rate does not begin to fall soon. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also declared his determination for inflation to be brought down, without revealing how. Investors will be watching for comments from 'Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, and 'Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson later today. Silver fell by 1.2% elsewhere to $57.07 an ounce. Palladium fell 0.4% to $1,308.49 and platinum dropped 0.6% to 1,664.75 (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Rashmi Anich and Swati verma from Bengaluru)
As AI rally matures, investors may seek value in 2026
According to analysts, global investors will actively look for opportunities in the financial markets this year that are undervalued as concerns about an AI bubble encourage traders to look past highly valued technology companies.
U.S. stock prices were volatile in 2025. They plunged to bear market territory after President Donald Trump's tariffs in April before eventually rebounding to new record highs.
Analysts expect the upward trend to continue into 2026. However, investors may need to be selective in their asset selection.
BlackRock Investment Institute strategists said that the current environment is ripe for investing actively.
The dollar fell on the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, boosting emerging market assets.
Strategists bet on other asset classes gaining traction in 2018.
Small Cap Stocks
As earnings prospects improve, and borrowing costs decline, U.S. Small Caps may be back in the spotlight after years of being out of the spotlight.
Oren Shiran is a portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management. He said, "The biggest difference in 2026 will be that earnings growth returns to small-cap stocks."
LSEG estimates that traders expect the U.S. Central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2026. Small-cap companies are more likely to have higher debt levels, and so they will be among the first ones to benefit from a decrease in interest rates.
Steven DeSanctis, equity strategist at Jefferies, expects the Russell 2000 index (which tracks small-cap stocks) to reach 2,825 by 2026. This would be a gain of nearly 14% from 2025.
Gold's historical run in 2025 was the best year since 1979, when the oil crisis began. J.P. Morgan and Bank of America predicted gold prices would hit $5,000 per ounce in this year compared to $4,314.12 by 2025.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysts expect that favorable conditions will continue, but they said gains may come at a slower pace.
Central banks could also provide support by purchasing assets other than dollars.
HEALTHCARE & FINANCIALS
A wave of policy improvements could propel the healthcare sector to be a standout. Morgan Stanley stated that the increasing reach of weight loss drugs could boost industry.
As M&A accelerates and the loan growth rebounds, financials, notably?banks are expected to also outperform.
Morgan Stanley stated that the sector's valuation is still attractive due to deregulation and AI driven efficiency gains. Mid-cap banks offer compelling early-cycle opportunity.
CURRENCIES
Analysts?said that the U.S. dollar is set for another bout in weakness in 2026 as they expect the Fed to lower interest rates to cushion an easing labor market. Analysts also see political uncertainty, such as the appointment of a Fed chair, adding to volatility.
Selling would make emerging market currencies like the yuan of China and real of Brazil more attractive, as currency movements are increasingly driven by divergent policy paths.
ING economists believe that the Czech crown may benefit from a new boost due to the rate increases by the Czech National Bank.
Analysts at MUFG wrote that commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, could also benefit from a better global growth outlook.
MUFG stated that the euro, among G7 peers, is likely to be supported by fiscal stimulus, while the Japanese yen may remain vulnerable but recover in the short term.
Emerging Markets
A weaker dollar and relatively low valuations are expected to continue to drive?inflows into emerging markets.
BofA Global strategists said that emerging markets are now less volatile than developed ones.
It is a mistake to focus too much on the fact the growth of emerging markets is lower than in the "good old days". It's true. But macro stability indicators have improved in recent years.
Domestic politics could cause a snag, particularly as Brazil and Colombia prepare for elections.
High-Yield and Corporate Bonds
According to analysts, the high-yield bond market and corporate bond markets will be active in 2026 as dealmaking will increase demand for "buyout financing" and AI heavyweights are likely to continue seeking capital to fund data center investments.
According to PitchBook, as of mid-December 2025 the high-yield issuers had a total of $325 billion. This is 17% higher than in 2024, and the highest showing since 2021's pandemic record.
"We have a?constructive view on high-yield bonds in 2026." In the last year, demand for high-yield bonds was strong. This allowed them to comfortably absorb a high-supply?year," wrote Janus Henderson's portfolio managers in a recent note.
EVENT CONTRACTS SUPERCYCLE
Retail investor demand is expected to fuel the rapid growth of event contracts. These contracts allow users to wager on real-world outcomes in politics, sports, and financial markets.
These contracts became popular before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and have prompted a new wave of startups to launch event contracts.
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, said at a recent conference that "we're still in the beginning stages of this supercycle" for this asset class.
Robinhood is one of the largest players in this industry, and Coinbase also wants to get a foothold.
Citizens Financial analysts estimated that prediction markets generate nearly $2 billion a year in revenue. This could increase five-fold by the time institutions begin to participate.
State regulators are examining the rapid growth of these contracts, accusing them of being similar to sports betting, and encouraging potentially speculative behaviour.
(source: Reuters)