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Macron reiterates his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as TotalEnergies warns of an energy shortage
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, reiterated his commitment to reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. This comes a day after TotalEnergies's head warned of a global energy shortfall if the Iran swar continued for several months. Speaking at a press conference with Greek Prime Minister KyriakosMitsotakis in Athens, Macron said that geopolitical uncertainties can lead to panic, which in turn could cause shortages. "Our aim is to achieve full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next days and weeks in accordance with the international law. This will guarantee freedom of navigation, without tolls, on the Strait of Hormuz. Macron stated that things will gradually return to normal. TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne called for the reopening of the Strait on Friday, which is normally the route through which a fifth (or more) of the world's oil supply flows. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has slowed down the movement of goods through the strait. Fertilisers and pharmaceuticals are among the items that have been affected. Iran has seized containers and the United States has imposed a blockade in Iranian ports. Pouyanne said at the World Policy Conference outside Paris that if it continues for two or three more months, "we will enter a world where energy is scarce." Asian countries have already experienced this. "You can't have 20% of oil and gas on the planet stranded, and not available without major consequences." More than a dozen countries have said that they would be willing to join a mission led by France to protect shipping along the strait if conditions permitted, even though U.S. president Donald Trump said he did not need help from allies. "We are all in the same boat and I would say that it is not a boat that we chose. Macron said that we are victims of geopolitics, and victims of a war that began several months ago. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Additional reporting by Claude Chendjou, Paris)
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US lets Venezuela pay Maduro’s lawyer in drug-trafficking case
Maduro is captured by US forces in Caracas raid in January The charges against him and his spouse include narcoterrorism conspiracies Defense attorneys call restrictions on payment unconstitutional By Luc Cohen A court filing on Friday showed that the United States has agreed to change its sanctions against Venezuela so that the South American nation's government can pay Nicolas Maduro’s defense lawyer. This is a reversal of a restriction which had 'threatened' to derail the drug-trafficking case brought against the former Venezuelan President. Maduro and Cilia Flores were arrested by U.S. Special Forces on 3 January from their Caracas home and brought to New York, where they will face criminal charges, including narcoterrorism conspiracies. The two have pleaded innocent and are being held in Brooklyn jail pending trial. Barry Pollack, Maduro’s lawyer, asked Manhattan’s U.S. district judge Alvin Hellerstein in February to dismiss the case because U.S. sanctions prevented the Venezuelan Government from paying his legal costs. Pollack stated that the prohibition amounted a violation of Maduro’s rights under U.S. Constitution, to choose the counsel he wants. Their lawyers said that neither Maduro nor Flores could afford to hire lawyers on their own and the Venezuelan government was willing to pay for their legal fees. All criminal defendants in America have constitutional rights, regardless of their citizenship. Hellerstein stated in a court hearing on March 26, that he had no intention of dismissing the case but appeared sceptical that the government's decision to block the payments was justified. Kyle Wirshba, the prosecutor, said that the U.S. sanction blocking the payments was based on legitimate foreign policy and national security interests. Wirshba said Hellerstein couldn't order the Treasury Department to modify sanctions, because it is the executive branch that has the responsibility for foreign policy, and not the judiciary. Hellerstein pointed out that since Maduro was ousted, the U.S. has relaxed its sanctions against Venezuela. Since Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodrguez took over Venezuela as interim leader, the relations between Caracas, Venezuela and Washington have improved. "The defendant is present, Flores' is also present. Hellerstein, an appointee by Democratic President Bill Clinton to the judiciary, said that they do not pose a threat to national security. "The right at stake, and paramount to other rights, is that of constitutional counsel." Donald Trump, during his first term as president of the United States, increased sanctions against Venezuela because he believed that Maduro was corrupt and undermining democratic institutions. Washington called Maduro’s 2018'reelection fraudulent. Maduro dismissed these accusations as well as allegations of 'his involvement in drug trafficking', which he said were pretextual justifications of what he described as a U.S. wish to seize the vast oil reserves of South American OPEC country. (Reporting from Luc Cohen in New York, with additional reporting by Rhea Rosa Abraham in Bengaluru. Editing by Nia William)
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Republicans re-tool midterm campaign strategy: Trump's policies but less Trump
The Republicans are revising their plan ahead of the November midterm elections. With gas prices in the U.S. up, Donald Trump's ratings on approval down, and Iran still a hot topic, they're recalibrating. The strategy? The strategy? Four people who attended the meeting said that a group of Trump's advisers, including White House chief staff Susie Wiles and political?chief James Blair, laid out a plan to help candidates promote Republicans' policies on?tax reductions? and inflation. Republicans are trying to keep Trump out of the spotlight, because they fear that his declining political fortunes will hurt competitive congressional races. Trump's party is facing an uphill struggle to maintain its majority in the House of Representatives, and there's a growing danger of losing control of Senate. Three Republican operatives and a seasoned Republican campaigner, who spoke under the condition of anonymity in order to discuss private discussions and give candid assessments, said that there is growing concern among some Republican operatives that Trump's presidency and political clout are running low. Trump seems to be stuck in a deadlock, as both his military and diplomatic efforts have failed to denuclearize Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a?two-month war. AAA reports that the average national gas price is now nearing $4 per gallon. This could undermine the new tax policies of the Republicans' "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", the signature legislative achievement from Trump's second tenure. A /Ipsos survey found that only 36% of Americans approve Trump's performance, which is the lowest in his current term. Many Americans, including Republicans, are concerned about Trump's mental sharpness and temperament after a series explosive outbursts. Trumpworld's political strategist said that "are going to try and nationalize the elections and say that we are a rubber stamp of?Trump". "We need to get out of this and show race-by-race why we are the better option." Within the political operation of the president, there is a strong belief that Trump is a powerful messenger. Kiersten Pels is the national press secretary of the Republican National Committee. She said that Trump will remain the "most powerful driver" for conservative voter turnout during the midterm elections, and that Republican candidate are eagerly seeking to get his endorsement. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales stated that Trump is the "unambiguous leader of the Republican Party and he's committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress". EMPHASIS IS?ON LOCAL ISSUES NOT TRUMP Over coffee and pastries, Trump's team invited guests to sign nondisclosure agreements. They then predicted that Republicans would win the Virginia redistricting elections the following day. People familiar with the meeting said that the mood was positive. Details of the meeting were leaked almost immediately. Virginia voters approved a new map of the congressional district that Democrats had drawn to favor their party's November election. One of those present at the meeting asked: "If they are so confident in Virginia that they lose, do they have a problem with their whole approach?" Some Republican insiders point out that midterm elections are still months away and that a lot can happen before the voters head to the polls. Gas prices and inflation may fall if armed hostilities against Iran are reduced. David McIntosh is the president of Trump's Club for Growth. In the run-up to the elections, Republicans were planning to position Trump as their standard-bearer and the man who had, as he often said, "made the United States the hottest country in the world." Wiles said in December that Republicans would change the midterm game plan by putting Trump on the ballot, rather than keeping him at a distance. People now say that this plan is less appealing. Republicans will focus on local issues instead of allegiance to President, they said. Another person familiar with the meeting said, "The politics has changed." In January, it made sense to nationalize the race around him. The person stated that voters don't think the president does enough to reduce their costs, but still believe Republicans are trying to do this. The Trumpworld strategist?added that Republicans can use the low popularity of the Democratic Party to compare policy ideas. Trump's declining support could provide Democrats with fertile ground for attaching Republican candidates to Trump's shortcomings. Trump, who ran for office in 2024 as an opponent of "stupid" wars and branded himself a "peace President," is now leading the largest U.S. Military operation since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Critics claim that Trump's administration did not consider how Iran would react to a?joint U.S. and Israeli attack, or the economic fallout. This included an unprecedented global energy supply shock as well as the threat of a financial crisis worldwide. Trump's Tuesday decision to extend indefinitely what was originally a two-week truce was widely seen as a retreat. Tehran maintained its grip on Strait of Hormuz, and was committed to a nuclear programme. Aaron David Miller is a former Middle East diplomat for both Democratic-Republican administrations. He said Iran believed it had leverage over the crucial oil shipping channel, and could also suffer more economic pain than Trump. Miller, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expert, said that the Iranians believe Trump's tolerance for a political and economic price is limited. "They are prepared to wait for him."
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Maine Governor rejects the first US state to freeze new data centers
Janet Mills, the Democratic Governor of Maine, vetoed on Friday a bill which would have made Maine the first U.S. State to impose an 'electricity-hungry data center moratorium. The bill would have frozen the approval of data centers that require more than 20 megawatts in power until October 2027, while an appointed council by the state analyzed the impact they had on local grids, electricity bills, and air and water. Mills wrote to the Maine legislature that she supported a temporary ban on data centers and would have signed it if the bill had allowed an exemption for the data center being built in the town of Jay. "A moratorium would be appropriate, given the impact of massive data centres in other states both on the environment and the electricity rates." The final version of the bill does not allow for the Town of Jay to have a project that is supported by the local community and the region. A boiler explosion in 2023 caused the closure of Androscoggin Paper Mill, resulting in hundreds?of job losses. Mills stated that the construction of a $550-million data center at this site would create more than 800 construction jobs as well as at least 100 permanent high-paying jobs. It would also generate property tax revenue for the town. The decision taken on Friday is a reflection of the difficult choice that political leaders face when weighing the impact data centers have on the environment, household energy costs and the tax revenue and investment they can generate. Mills said she also plans to issue a executive order to establish a council that will examine the impact of data centres in Maine. She has also signed a law to prevent data center projects being eligible for Maine's tax incentive programs. American tech giants are pledging to spend more than $600 billion this year on artificial intelligence data centres as part of an investment spree which 'has boosted U.S. economy and is considered largest since the telecom boom in the late 1990s. At least 11 U.S. States are now considering legislation to halt or restrict the development of these facilities. This is despite the Trump administration's pressure on states to not regulate AI. Last month, Washington asked big technology companies to sign at the White House an 'unconditional pledge' that they would pay for the new electricity generation needed to power their data centres. Senator Bernie Sanders, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez have both introduced legislation that would halt construction of data centers until Congress passed AI safety legislation. Aditya soni, Chris Thomas, and Mrinmay dey reported from Mexico City. Pooja desai edited the story.
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Sefcovic, EU's Sefcovic, says that the US has indicated that it will not ease Russian oil sanctions once again.
Sefcovic said that during his Friday talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent he had raised concerns over 'the recent U.S. easement of sanctions on Russian Oil,' and understood it would not happen again. Sefcovic said he had been told by U.S. officials the relief in sanctions was due to concerns over the "extremely hard situation" that some low-income countries face, who are heavily dependent on imported oil. The U.S. Treasury Department issued on Friday a general license related to Russia, allowing for the sale and delivery of Russian crude oil as well as petroleum products on vessels from April 17. This license extends a previous one through May 16. Bessent told U.S. Senators this week that he had extended sanctions relief?on Russian seaborne crude oil for an additional 30 days, after receiving requests from countries most at risk of shortages?due to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said that the requests were made during last week's spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Sefcovic told Bessent that he had discussed the matter with him during their meeting earlier this week. He was informed, however, that the relief of sanctions was necessary to address the current situation in the Strait, where the flow is largely blocked due to an uneasy ceasefire agreement between the U.S. He said: "My clear understanding was that it will not be repeated again in the future. It was also done due to the fact that several countries with lower incomes were in a very... difficult position." Sefcovic and Bessent also discussed disruptions to fertilizer supply chain, with a focus on Europe as well the "alarming" situation in Africa. "It is on our radars and we're ready to work together," he said. Bessent last week pushed the Group of 20 Major Economies to agree to a coordinated?action with the IMF and World Bank to ensure that countries have access to?fertilizer supplies. Since the U.S. and Israel's bombing campaign on Iran began on February 28, Asian economies have been particularly affected by the lack of oil from the Gulf. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Paul Simao
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Sefcovic, EU's Sefcovic, says he has discussed steel with US officials and that the discussion is moving in a positive direction
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that he and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick had 'agreed' to accelerate discussions about steel derivatives on a technical level. Talks have already begun. Sefcovic told reporters that, in his opinion, both sides are moving forward on the steel issue. He said that both the United States as well as the EU were facing the same problem of massive overcapacity on the global market, without mentioning China. Sefcovic told a press conference that "we are not each other's problem" after signing an agreement on critical minerals with U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio. "Our trade is small and it is very much focused on the specialized steel which we both require, but we are facing a large overcapacity." Sefcovic estimated that global overcapacity at 720 million tonnes, which was flooding and destroying the sector. He said that the crisis is what prompted the European Union?to nearly halve the imports of steel, and impose 50% tariffs on excess shipments in order to protect the bloc?s steel industry. Due to the rising imports, and tariffs of 50% imposed by President Donald Trump in the U.S., EU steel producers are only operating at 65% capacity. The new measures are intended to increase capacity utilization to 80%. Sefcovic told?Lutnick he had proposed that the two 'blocs' ringfence their respective steel?sectors, and to trade at favorable terms between themselves. He called this a "defensive" mechanism against steel subsidies. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker, Franklin Paul, and Andrea Shalal)
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US sanctions Chinese teapot refinery that bought Iranian oil
Trump Administration announced on Friday that it had imposed sanctions on an independent "teapot refinery" in China for?buying billions worth of Iranian crude oil while Washington and Tehran are struggling to restart peace negotiations. Treasury Department targeted Hengli Petrochemical Refinery Co., which they said was one of Iran's biggest customers for crude oil and petroleum. The Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Treasury Department said that it had also imposed sanctions against about 40 shipping firms and vessels operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet. Last year, the Trump administration imposed sanctions against teapots Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group and Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical. This created a few hurdles for refiners. They had to receive crude and sell refined products under different names. Teapots make up about a quarter (25%) of Chinese refinery capacities. They operate with 'narrow and sometimes negative margins', and have recently been squeezed by the tepid demand at home. Some independent refiners have been deterred from purchasing Iranian oil by the U.S. sanctions that block U.S. assets and prohibit Americans from doing business. Data from Kpler's analytics firm for 2025 showed that China purchases more than 80% Iran's oil. The experts in the field of sanctions have long maintained that independent refineries, due to their limited exposure to the U.S. Financial System, are immune from the full impact of U.S. Sanctions. They say that imposing sanctions on China’s banks, which facilitate the?purchases of Iranian oil would have a greater impact on those purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. was imposing a financial "stranglehold", on the Iranian Government. Bessent stated that Treasury will continue to restrict the network of vessels, intermediaries and buyers Iran depends on to transport its oil to international markets. Teapot refiners have recently had to purchase Iranian oil at a premium to Brent oil prices after Washington temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil shipped at sea. This was done to encourage India to buy more oil. The U.S. allowed the waiver expire last week. Timothy Gardner and David Gaffen edited this report.
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Gold heads for first loss in five weekly weeks
Gold was up on Friday but on course for its first weekly loss in the last five week as the markets were on edge due to lingering inflation concerns and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. - Iran war. At 01:41 pm, spot gold was up by 0.6% to $4,721.15 an ounce. ET (1741 GMT) after rising more than 1 percent earlier in the day. The price of gold is down over 2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,740.90. Gold prices?fell throughout the month of March, as the U.S. - Iran war boosted the dollar and raised fears about inflation. This weighed down on the demand for gold. The conflict is at a standstill. Even though the number of military attacks by the countries involved has decreased, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Investors are left to fill in the gaps or react to U.S. President Donald Trump's comments, which have tempered expectations of a peace deal with threats to resume attacks. Pakistani sources confirmed that Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, was due in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday, to discuss proposals to restart peace talks with United States. However, he was not expected to meet U.S. delegates. Separately Israel and Lebanon extended a ceasefire of three weeks. The market is currently in a positive net situation. "Energy prices are also falling," said Daniel Pavilonis senior market strategist at RJO?Futures. The oil prices fell on Friday but have risen this week as a result of the failure of a second round of talks between the U.S. Oil prices that are higher can cause inflation, which could lead to interest rate increases. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said that gold fell (this week) as a result of the rising oil price, expectations for higher rates and yields. Benchmark 10-year ?U.S. Treasury yields rose 1.5% in the past week, increasing the cost of owning?gold. The dollar, on course for its first weekly increase in three weeks, also increased the price of bullion for other currencies. Silver spot rose by 1.4%, to $76.49 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.5%, to $2,015.98, and palladium grew 2.2%, to $1,499.75. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
As AI rally matures, investors may seek value in 2026
According to analysts, global investors will actively look for opportunities in the financial markets this year that are undervalued as concerns about an AI bubble encourage traders to look past highly valued technology companies.
U.S. stock prices were volatile in 2025. They plunged to bear market territory after President Donald Trump's tariffs in April before eventually rebounding to new record highs.
Analysts expect the upward trend to continue into 2026. However, investors may need to be selective in their asset selection.
BlackRock Investment Institute strategists said that the current environment is ripe for investing actively.
The dollar fell on the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, boosting emerging market assets.
Strategists bet on other asset classes gaining traction in 2018.
Small Cap Stocks
As earnings prospects improve, and borrowing costs decline, U.S. Small Caps may be back in the spotlight after years of being out of the spotlight.
Oren Shiran is a portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management. He said, "The biggest difference in 2026 will be that earnings growth returns to small-cap stocks."
LSEG estimates that traders expect the U.S. Central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2026. Small-cap companies are more likely to have higher debt levels, and so they will be among the first ones to benefit from a decrease in interest rates.
Steven DeSanctis, equity strategist at Jefferies, expects the Russell 2000 index (which tracks small-cap stocks) to reach 2,825 by 2026. This would be a gain of nearly 14% from 2025.
Gold's historical run in 2025 was the best year since 1979, when the oil crisis began. J.P. Morgan and Bank of America predicted gold prices would hit $5,000 per ounce in this year compared to $4,314.12 by 2025.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysts expect that favorable conditions will continue, but they said gains may come at a slower pace.
Central banks could also provide support by purchasing assets other than dollars.
HEALTHCARE & FINANCIALS
A wave of policy improvements could propel the healthcare sector to be a standout. Morgan Stanley stated that the increasing reach of weight loss drugs could boost industry.
As M&A accelerates and the loan growth rebounds, financials, notably?banks are expected to also outperform.
Morgan Stanley stated that the sector's valuation is still attractive due to deregulation and AI driven efficiency gains. Mid-cap banks offer compelling early-cycle opportunity.
CURRENCIES
Analysts?said that the U.S. dollar is set for another bout in weakness in 2026 as they expect the Fed to lower interest rates to cushion an easing labor market. Analysts also see political uncertainty, such as the appointment of a Fed chair, adding to volatility.
Selling would make emerging market currencies like the yuan of China and real of Brazil more attractive, as currency movements are increasingly driven by divergent policy paths.
ING economists believe that the Czech crown may benefit from a new boost due to the rate increases by the Czech National Bank.
Analysts at MUFG wrote that commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, could also benefit from a better global growth outlook.
MUFG stated that the euro, among G7 peers, is likely to be supported by fiscal stimulus, while the Japanese yen may remain vulnerable but recover in the short term.
Emerging Markets
A weaker dollar and relatively low valuations are expected to continue to drive?inflows into emerging markets.
BofA Global strategists said that emerging markets are now less volatile than developed ones.
It is a mistake to focus too much on the fact the growth of emerging markets is lower than in the "good old days". It's true. But macro stability indicators have improved in recent years.
Domestic politics could cause a snag, particularly as Brazil and Colombia prepare for elections.
High-Yield and Corporate Bonds
According to analysts, the high-yield bond market and corporate bond markets will be active in 2026 as dealmaking will increase demand for "buyout financing" and AI heavyweights are likely to continue seeking capital to fund data center investments.
According to PitchBook, as of mid-December 2025 the high-yield issuers had a total of $325 billion. This is 17% higher than in 2024, and the highest showing since 2021's pandemic record.
"We have a?constructive view on high-yield bonds in 2026." In the last year, demand for high-yield bonds was strong. This allowed them to comfortably absorb a high-supply?year," wrote Janus Henderson's portfolio managers in a recent note.
EVENT CONTRACTS SUPERCYCLE
Retail investor demand is expected to fuel the rapid growth of event contracts. These contracts allow users to wager on real-world outcomes in politics, sports, and financial markets.
These contracts became popular before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and have prompted a new wave of startups to launch event contracts.
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, said at a recent conference that "we're still in the beginning stages of this supercycle" for this asset class.
Robinhood is one of the largest players in this industry, and Coinbase also wants to get a foothold.
Citizens Financial analysts estimated that prediction markets generate nearly $2 billion a year in revenue. This could increase five-fold by the time institutions begin to participate.
State regulators are examining the rapid growth of these contracts, accusing them of being similar to sports betting, and encouraging potentially speculative behaviour.
(source: Reuters)