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Copper prices rise as tight supply is in focus. Weekly gain expected
The price of copper edged up on Friday, and it was headed for a big weekly gain after a bullish forecast by Goldman Sachs highlighted the mine supply limitations. A stronger dollar also capped gains. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose?0.1% to $11,787 a metric ton at 1036 GMT. This is not far from the previous peak of $11,952 that it reached last week. Metal, which is widely used in construction, manufacturing and power, is expected to increase by 2.4% this coming week, and almost 35% by 2025. Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast of $15,000 per ton for 2035 in a Thursday note. The dollar index rose 0.3%, which limited gains on the LME. Dollar-denominated precious metals become more expensive to holders of other currencies when the greenback is stronger. Thu Lan 'Nguyen is the head of commodity analysis at Commerzbank. "We're not as bullish about copper as some other houses. "We are saying that copper will most likely move to $12,000 sustainably within the next month. But I think the air has become thinner." She noted that while high copper prices encouraged more investment in mining production, low nickel prices have led Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, to reduce output. LME nickel rose a third time and was up by?0.7% to $14,745 per ton. This is after the Indonesian government announced that it would reduce nickel ore production next year by about?a third to 250 million tonnes. After South32 announced that it would close its Mozal?smelter?in March, aluminium rose 0.4% to $2927.50. This is the highest level since May 2022. Goldman still expects that copper will outperform aluminum in 2026, as China's push for critical metals abroad boosts aluminium manufacturing. Lead increased 0.7%, zinc fell 0.1%, and tin rose 1.4%, reaching its highest level since April 2022. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips; Additional reporting and editing by Dylan Duan and Lewis Jackson in Shanghai; Reporting and Editing by Tom Daly)
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NBC News reports that Trump has not ruled out war against Venezuela.
According to an interview published by NBC News on Friday, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he would 'leave the possibility of a war with Venezuela out on the table. In a telephone interview with NBC News, he said: "I don't exclude it." According to the interview, Trump said that there would also be more?seizures' of oil tankers in Venezuelan waters. Last week, the U.S. seized an oil tanker that was sanctioned off Venezuela's coast. He told NBC News that if they were foolish enough to "sail along", they would be returning into one of his harbors. Trump ordered on Tuesday a "blockade," of all sanctioned tankers that enter and leave Venezuela, Washington's latest attempt to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government by targeting its primary source of revenue. Venezuelan officials responded by rejecting Trump's "grotesque" threat. Trump's campaign of pressure on Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence and over two dozen military attacks on vessels near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea. At least 90 people have been killed in these strikes. Trump also said previously that the U.S. Soon, the U.S. will begin land attacks on this South American nation. Trump refused to answer the question in his NBC interview if he wanted Maduro removed. He told NBC News, "He knows what I want." Trump continued, "He knows more than anyone," referring to Maduro. The report didn't go into detail. Maduro claims that the U.S. is trying to overthrow him and gain control of the OPEC nation’s oil reserves, the largest in the world. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson and William Maclean in Bengaluru.
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All I want for Christmas is accurate economic data
By Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. Hello Morning Bid readers! The last week of trading in 2025 was rough, but the year looks to be ending on a high note, as central banks, deal-makers and some mind-boggling U.S. inflation numbers keep everyone from wearing their out-of office messages yet. Wall Street's major indexes ended higher on Thursday as Micron Technology surged 16% after announcing a record profit forecast. Core U.S. CPI in November increased by just 2.6% over the previous year, which is the slowest rate since March 2021. This report raised expectations of Federal Reserve interest rates being cut early next year. A few economists, however, think that this report is inaccurate, and some have dubbed it "Swiss Cheese", due to the data collection problems caused by the shutdown of government. This week, investors also got the November US payrolls figures. After a massive fall in October, the economy created 64,000 new jobs, which was above expectations. The unemployment rate also increased to a 4-year high, at 4.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had to change its calculation method due to the 43-day shutdown of the government. This week, the central banks once again dominated the news. Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, urged a 25-basis point increase in interest rates to 0.75% on Friday, which was the highest rate for thirty years. However, the yen fell as it would take more than modest tightening of monetary policy to ensure that the Japanese currency is not in the "danger zone" created by the intervention. On Thursday, the Bank of England took the opposite course and cut its policy rate from 4% to 3.75% - marking the sixth reduction since August 2024. The BoE may be behind schedule due to the unexpectedly large fall in UK inflation that occurred last month, and a stagnant economy. The European Central Bank kept rates at 2.0% on Thursday but signaled that its easing cycle was likely to be over. The pace of dealmaking is not likely to slow down anytime soon. Warner Brothers Discovery rejected Paramount's "hostile takeover bid" of $108.4 billion on Wednesday. On Thursday, a $6 billion deal was announced for a merger of TAE Technologies and Google-backed Trump Media. Then came the news that ByteDance's Chinese owner of TikTok, ByteDance had signed agreements giving control of U.S. Operations to a group investors, including Oracle. Brent crude futures fell by almost 3% to $59 on Tuesday, the lowest price since early 2021. This was due to growing optimism about a possible peace agreement in Ukraine. The prices briefly recovered after President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday, in a post to his Truth Social platform, that he ordered a ban on all sanctioned oil tanks entering and exiting Venezuela. Crude prices fell again on Friday morning. The real driver of oil prices is unlikely to be geopolitical. It will likely be a surge in global supply, both at sea and on land. BP shocked the energy industry by announcing that Meg O'Neill will replace the current CEO Murray Auchincloss. She is the first non-industry chief executive of the company. The British oil company, which has a $90 billion debt, now has three options for its future: buy or build. Asia's crude oil, coal, and liquefied gas imports are expected to decrease this year, despite President Trump’s attempts to increase shipments in his trade strategy. Japan's fossil fuel electricity production has fallen to its lowest level in over a decade by 2025. This is largely due to a continuing recovery in nuclear energy output. Open Interest has more news on commodities. Find out which commodity is currently the star of the London Metals Exchange (hint: it's definitely not copper!) and what agricultural trends to look out for in the coming year. Morning Bid is on break for the next 2 weeks. We'll return in January. Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI team. Please contact me via This weekend we are reading... MIKE DOLAN is Editor-at-Large for ROI Financial Markets: David Graeber and David Wengrow's The Dawn of Everything, The New History of Humanity challenges many of our beliefs about the origins of civilisation, including the development of cities, farming and democracy. It's a great book to read during the holidays. RON BOUSSO is a ROI Energy columnist. I recommend Andrew Ross Sorkin’s latest book 1929: The Inside 'Story of the Worst Crash in Wall Street History. This is a thrilling and brilliantly written account of the historical crash and its cause. This story is eerily similar to what's happening in the markets today. 1. GAVIN MAGUIRE is a Global Energy Transition Columnist for the ROI. The book "How Big Things Get Done" by Professors Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner is an interesting study that shows how many megaprojects fail because of poor planning and not execution. This book is a few decades old, but it's still packed with useful information for anyone who wants to know more about?big projects. Andy Home, Columnist for ROI Metals: The War Below, by Ernest Scheyder (my colleague), is an excellent primer that explains what metals are "critical" to the West and why they lost to China in the race for their development. Ernie delves into the environmental conflict between those who believe that critical minerals are a crucial?route to reducing carbon emissions and those who oppose the mines required to produce them. JAMIE MCGEEVER: ROI Markets columnist. TS Lombard's Dario Perkins, and Freya beamish, two economists who are always worth listening to, give their views on 2026. They also discuss who they think will succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast video if your New Year resolution is to become more productive. Mike Dolan, along with other journalists, will give you a daily update on the most important stories that are moving the markets. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. News does not endorse the opinions expressed. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski )
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Chile creates a national park to protect wildlife at the edge the world
Chile is creating a national park to protect unique ecosystems and endangered wildlife at the very edge of the map. The proposed?Cape Froward National Park would cover approximately 150,000 hectares of forest, peatlands and glaciers, as well as coastlines facing the Strait of Magellan. Benjamin Caceres is the wildlife coordinator for Rewilding Chile. He said that humans must regulate their activities, including tourism and industry, to protect fragile ecosystems. "These are resilient places that create refuges for endangered species and maintain balance." Rewilding?Chile is a foundation founded by Douglas Tompkins who was a philanthropist, and the founder of North?Face, an outdoor clothing company. In November, Tompkins donated 127,000 hectares to the Chilean Government with the condition of creating a national park within two years. The park will house the southernmost population of endangered huemul deer. Its productive waters also support a vast marine ecosystem including orcas, whales and sea lions. Gabriela Garrido, the project coordinator, said that authorities hope to complete the decree within the next few months. The park will be added to an 8-million-hectare biological corridor of Patagonia which includes the Kawesqar National Park and Alberto de Agostini?National?Parks. Carolina Morgado, director of Rewilding, said that the park was intended to be a source of sustainable economic development for the region. It would be the first within the municipality of Punta Arenas - the capital of Chile’s southernmost region. The foundation is developing plans to create a park that will include hiking trails and facilities for tourists. (Reporting and writing by Nicolas Cortes, Alexander Villegas; editing by Ed Osmond).
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ASIA GOLD - Gold rally hit demand as India's discount widens, China's reach a five-year high
Gold discounts in India reached a new high of more than one month as record bullion price dampened retail demand, even during peak wedding season. Markdowns in China also hit their highest level since late August 2019. This week, Indian dealers are offering discounts Discounts of up to $37 an ounce on official domestic prices, inclusive of 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes - compared to last week's discount of $34. A Mumbai-based dealer for a private bank stated that the rally in gold prices has dampened wedding season jewellery purchases. This has undermined jewellers' hope of maintaining momentum, despite higher prices. This week, domestic gold prices reached a new record high of 135,590 rupies ($1,503.76) for 10 grams, compared to last week's record price of 132 776 rupies. Amit Modak said that demand was about a quarter below normal and prices were continuing to rise. In India, weddings are the main driver of gold demand. Family and friends often gift bullion to mark these occasions. Data shows that in China, the top consumer of bullion, prices are at their highest level since over five years. Chinese discounts on physical gold reached a "record" of $87.50 by August 2020, as the retail appetite for gold plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "higher prices are having a negative impact on domestic consumption, wholesale and retail, because the demand for products is so low." Norman said, "The only positive area seems to be the ETF side. Institutional investors continue to buy (gold) along with the PBOC." In Singapore In Hong Kong, gold was sold at a discount ranging from $0.5 to $2.2 It traded at par or a $1.8 markup over spot prices. In Japan A Tokyo-based trader stated that bullion was trading at a discount of up to $6 to a premium of $0.5 over spot prices, as retail shops had run out of stocks of gold bars. However, there may still be a good demand for buying if a dip occurs. ($1 = 90.1675 Indian Rupees) (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo; Ishaan Jadhav, Bengaluru)
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Putin makes clear that he will not compromise on Ukraine during the annual press marathon
Vladimir Putin stated on Friday that Russia’s terms to end the war in Ukraine are unchanged from what he outlined in June 2024. This is a sign of no compromise, as the United States continues to push for a resolution. Putin outlined the Kremlin stance at the start of his annual press conference that lasts for four hours. He said he didn't see any readiness from the Ukrainian side for a peace agreement, but that there were "certain signs" of a willingness to engage in dialogue. Putin stated: "The only thing that I would like to say is we have always been clear that we were ready and willing for this conflict to be resolved peacefully based on principles that I laid out last June in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and by addressing root causes which led to the crisis." Assessment of Battlefield Situation He was referring back to a recent speech in which he called on Ukraine to abandon its desire to join the NATO military alliance and withdraw from four areas that Russia claimed as its territory. Putin gave a detailed analysis of the battlefield, stating that Russia advanced along the entire frontline and Ukrainian forces are?in retreat'. Ukraine claims that Russian gains have been incremental, and come at a cost of massive casualties. It claims to be fighting back at locations like Kupiansk, in the northeast. Russia claimed it had taken Kupiansk last month. Kyiv has long called for ceasefires and stated that it doesn't believe Putin is sincere about his desire to bring peace. Russia claims that Ukraine is the one refusing to sit down at the table. The war is at a critical juncture after nearly four years. U.S. president Donald Trump wants a peace agreement on terms that Ukraine, its European allies and the United States fear are slanted toward Russia. Russia is awaiting to hear how the United States has modified its draft peace proposal following consultations with the Europeans, Ukraine, and the United States. After eight years of fighting, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 20, 2022. This was the largest confrontation between Moscow, the West and the Cold War. Trump, who wants to be known as a peacemaker in history, complained that the end of the war in Ukraine was one of his elusive foreign policy goals. UKRAINE CONTROLS PRESS CONFERENCE IN EARLY STAGES The first phase of the annual "Results of the Year", which Putin has organized in various formats since 2001, was dominated by the state of the conflict and the question of its end. He uses it for dozens of questions about everything from price increases to nuclear weapons. Some questions are submitted by journalists, while others come from ordinary Russians who submit them by phone or online. The Kremlin announced that it received over 2.6 million questions ahead of the event on Friday. The COVID test was administered to all attendees. This is a routine procedure for Putin's meetings, even 73 years after the pandemic ended. The decision was welcomed in Moscow. Instead of using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defense against Russia, the European Union decided to borrow money to pay for it. This avoided divisions about an unprecedented plan to use Russian sovereign cash to finance Kyiv. They said that they reserve the right to use Russian assets as repayment if Moscow does not pay Ukraine's war reparations. Putin?casts this war as a watershed in relations with the West. He says that the West humiliated Russia in 1991 after the Soviet Union collapsed by expanding?NATO, and invading what he believes to be Moscow's sphere. A ceasefire could reunite Russia, which has some of the largest reserves of natural resources in the world - from diamonds to oil to rare earths and even rare earths themselves - with the U.S. at the same time that it is focusing on the competition with China with whom Putin formed a "no limitations" partnership. The continuation of this war could result in many more deaths and drain the economies of Ukraine and Russia, as well as European powers. It also increases the likelihood of war escalation. U.S. officials claim that Russia and Ukraine has suffered over 2 million casualties since the beginning of the war, including dead and injured. Russia and Ukraine do not provide credible estimates on their losses.
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Japan bond yields rise after BOJ hike; Wall Street poised to gain
The yen and Japanese government bond yields both fell on Friday after the Bank of Japan increased interest rates to the highest level in three decades and left the door wide open for further tightening. European stocks rose 0.1% overnight, but they were not able to match the trading sessions that took place in Asia and America. Wall Street futures indicated gains between 0.3% to 0.5% after Thursday's rally on the back of stellar results by chipmaker Micron Technology. Investors digested the news that the European Union will provide Ukraine with 90 billion euro ($105.4 'billion) in support over the next 2 years. However, they failed to agree on a plan to use frozen Russian funds to finance this. Investors sold the yen in response to the BOJ's rate hike, which was widely anticipated. This led to some profit-taking. The dollar last rose?as high as 1% against the yen, at 157.07, while Japan's 10-year bond yield reached a 26-year high and the Nikkei closed 1% higher. The BOJ decision to raise short-term interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% is another step towards ending the decades-long monetary aid in Japan. Analysts say that the BOJ will need to "plot a careful course to manage inflation" as Japan's government prepares for major fiscal stimulus. Shaniel Ramjee is co-head of Pictet Asset Management's multi-asset division. "Markets anticipate the Bank of Japan to have to increase rates even more," he said. "That extra fiscal expenditure might continue to weaken yen and exacerbate inflation." Abhijit Suriya, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that he expects BOJ rates to reach 1.75% in 2027. ECB AND BoE OFFER DISTINCT LEVELS OF HAWKISHNESS The wider sentiment was boosted by a'surprise slowdown' in U.S. Consumer Price Inflation to 2.7%. However, analysts warned that the data had been distorted downwards due to the government shutdown, and therefore could not be taken as a true reflection. The Federal Reserve's pricing moved very little, with an implied rate cut of just 27% in January, and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.1354%. This is a far cry from the recent high of 4.209%, which was reached three-and-a half months ago. British bonds took a big hit overnight after the Bank of England's rate cut, as expected. However, it was only after a 5-4 vote. The policymakers have also expressed caution over the pace of future easing, and another cut is not fully priced until June. The European Central Bank, which held rates at 2.0% and indicated a probable end to the easing cycle, was even more hawkish. The markets indicate that there is only a small chance of a 2026 cut. Gold fell 0.1% on the commodity markets to $4,329 per ounce, still below its October high of $4,381. Brent crude oil fell by 0.5%, to $59.51 per barrel. U.S. crude oil declined 0.5%, to $55.89 a barrel.
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Investors weigh US interest rate outlook and AI bubble as they raise copper prices
The copper price rose on Friday as investors looked at the possibility of U.S. rate cuts in 2019 following lower consumer inflation in the United States. However, a possible artificial?intelligence bubble tempered?gains. The most-active contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading 0.46% higher at 93180 yuan (US$13,234.86) per metric ton but finished the week 1.07% down. It reached a record of 94.030 yuan last week. As of 0714 GMT the benchmark three-month Copper on the 'London Metal Exchange rose 0.29%, to $11,812 per ton. The week is expected to end 2.53% higher. According to data released Thursday, the U.S. consumer price index rose less than expected in the year ending November. This gave some hope for rate cuts next year. Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points last week but indicated that it may not be doing so in the near future. The 43-day shutdown of the government has left statistics in a state of ambiguity. This has affected the financial markets and the bank. The skepticism surrounding AI trades is exacerbated by the recent tech stock crash and Oracle's partner in data centres, Blue Owl Capital?, pulling out of an agreement worth $10 billion for its next facility. Copper is widely used in data centers. Among SHFE ?base metals, nickel rose 3.17%. The London nickel benchmark rose 1.36%. Nickel ore, which is used in stainless steel and batteries, has recovered from a slump that occurred earlier this week, after the mining association of Indonesia, the country's top producer, announced that government plans to reduce annual nickel production?to about 250 million tons. Aluminium rose by 0.89% in Shanghai. Zinc advanced by 0.17%. Lead gained 0.42%. Tin increased?2.40%. The LME also saw gains in zinc, lead, and tin. $1 = 7.0405 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jackson, Harikrishnan Nair and Sherry Jacob Phillips)
Diamond sector problems will cause Botswana’s economy to shrink by almost 1% in the year 2025
Botswana’s government has forecast an economic contraction of nearly 1% in this?year, as its diamond sector continues to struggle.
The government of Southern Africa had hoped to achieve a gross domestic product (GDP), or growth, of 3.3% this year. This would be a rebound from the 3% decline last year.
By mid-year, it was "projecting almost no growth" as the global diamond market continued to show signs of a long downturn.
Around one-third of Botswana’s revenues come from diamonds, and about three quarters of its foreign exchange earnings.
The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is fragile. GDP is projected to shrink by 0.9%. The forecast is a reflection of the continued weakness in diamonds, said Finance Minister Ndaba Golathe.
He added that "debt risks are increasing as persistent fiscal imbalances necessitate increased borrowing leading to a structurely higher debt trajectory."
Gaolathe stated that the government responded with austerity measures in order to reduce expenditure. This included limiting an 'overtime allowance to civil servants, and placing a travel moratorium for domestic and international travel.
He said that more austerity measures would be announced next year in the budget speech, to redirect funds into areas where future growth could be generated. (Reporting and writing by Brian Benza, Alexander Winning; Editing by William Maclean).
(source: Reuters)