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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz

Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases.

Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said.

As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day.

Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions.

Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026.

"In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman

(source: Reuters)