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European stocks drop as traders await US inflation data
The euro fell on Friday but was still on course for a weekly gain. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady while market observers waited for U.S. Inflation data. Wall Street closed higher Thursday as the White House confirmed that U.S. president Donald Trump will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping as part of his Asia trip next week. The White House confirmed that Donald Trump would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as part of his trip through Asia. The Shanghai Composite Index, which measures the performance of China's stock market, reached its highest level since August 2015. European markets opened higher but then fell in the course of the session. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down around 0.2% at 1110 GMT but on track to gain a week. London's FTSE 100 fell by less than 0.1%. The MSCI World Equity Index was flat for the week, resulting in a gain of 1.2%. Wall Street futures are still up. S&P 500 E-minis rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq E-minis gained 0.5%. The U.S. Stock Markets have surged in this year and reached record highs, as traders invest money into artificial intelligent and bet on the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates. Analysts claim there are signs that a bubble is forming. Investors awaited U.S. data on inflation, which was delayed because of the government shutdown. Consumer Price Index report (CPI), which is due to be released at 0830 ET (1230 GMT) is expected show that core inflation held steady at 3.1% during September. Next week, the Fed is expected cut rates by 25 basis points. Peter Fitzgerald, Chief Investment Officer for Macro at Aviva Investors, said: "It is a continuation in a generally supportive environment for equity markets where interest rates have been broadly falling across developed markets with Japan being the notable exception. Volatility has begun to drop again after a short spike, and there are no major earnings surprises." He said that it was impossible to know when or how a bull market would end. TRUMP CANCELS CANADA TRADE NEGATIONS The dollar index rose by 0.1% to 99.028, a new high for the day. The Canadian dollar was not affected by Trump's announcement on social media, that he would end all trade negotiations with Canada over what he called a fraudulent advertisement where Ronald Reagan, the late former president of Canada, spoke negatively about tariffs. Dollar-yen at 152.93. The yen fell as the new Prime Minister of Japan pledged to stimulate the economy. The euro remained steady at $1.1612. Data showed that the business activity in the Eurozone grew more rapidly than expected in October. After the data, yields on euro zone government bonds rose. Germany's Bund reached 2.612%. The oil prices that had increased by 5% following the U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies have now eased down, but are still on course for a gain of 5% per week. Gold fell around 1.6% per day to $4,058.41 an ounce. It is on course for a weekly decline, ending its winning streak of nine weeks. Bank of America Global Research reported that gold funds received their highest weekly inflow ever in the week ending Wednesday. Apple and Microsoft are among the five companies that will be reporting earnings next week. Intel's earnings beat expectations on Thursday.
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Trilogy Metals reports that key permits for Alaska mining roads have been reissued
Trilogy Metals, a Canadian miner, announced on Friday that the federal government had reissued key permits for a road planned in northwest Alaska to support future mining operations. Trilogy Metals' shares listed in the United States rose by over 8% during premarket trading. These permits were granted by U.S. agencies, including Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA), the Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Land Management. This follows a recent order from the president to restore the approvals that were originally given in 2020. The Ambler mining district, Alaska is home to a trove of minerals and copper. Trilogy CEO Tony Giardini stated that the road would provide access to an area of mining which could strengthen the United States ability to secure supplies of copper, and other essential minerals. The White House announced earlier this month that it would invest $35.6 million in Trilogy Metals. This investment will make the U.S. Government a 10% stakeholder in the miner. The investment included warrants for an additional 7.5% stake. Trilogy, one of the key developers in Ambler, has a joint venture with South32, an Australian company. (Reporting and editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava)
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Sources say that Reliance is racing to get orders for battery gear out of China before export restrictions.
Reliance Industries, owned by Indian billionaire Mukesh Amani, is hurrying to ship its battery component orders out of China before new export restrictions are implemented, according to two people who were briefed about the issue. This comes as global concerns grow over how Beijing plans to enforce its expanding export control regime. One source said that a team from Reliance had travelled to China in order to accelerate the work. Reliance, as well as the Ministry of Commerce of China, did not respond when asked for a comment. Due to the sensitive nature of the situation, the people refused to be identified. To maintain its competitive edge, Beijing has introduced new rules that require companies to obtain permission before exporting equipment for the battery supply chain. The new restrictions will take effect on November 8. The second source said that at least a dozen foreign customers in the Chinese battery industry are in the same situation as Reliance. Some of them were sacrificing quality assurance and other final stages of production to expedite the shipment of goods. The second source stated, "Who cares that it hasn't yet been painted or the screws checked?" They are saying that we will do the testing when it lands. Just get it out of the door. CHINA HAS A MAJOR ROLE in BATTERY SUPPLY CHAIN The person said that without the Chinese gear Reliance could not fulfill its plan to locally produce or assemble batteries to store the energy generated by its mega solar project, which is being promoted by the Indian Government to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. According to SNE Research, six of the top 10 battery manufacturers in the world are Chinese. People did not specify which Chinese companies provided Reliance. CATL, China’s largest battery manufacturer, stated in a press release that it is confident exports of its products to overseas factories will proceed smoothly under the newly implemented export regime. The export of materials and equipment needed for our European plants is proceeding as planned, it stated. China exported batteries worth $48 billion in the first eight month of this year. This is up 26% from the same period of last year. China's export of batteries adds to the concern that key technologies can be reliant on Beijing and become the subject of trade disputes. China's export restrictions on rare earths has highlighted the dangers of being dependent on a single supplier. Export controls introduced by China in April led to shortages which threatened to cripple global car production. The second source stated that Chinese battery manufacturers are assuring their foreign customers that there is no need to worry about such drastic changes for batteries. Export licences will be issued quickly and widely in the first few months after the new regime takes effect. In the meantime, foreign companies must play a waiting-game. The first source said, "It's a very tense atmosphere." (Reporting from Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Aditi in Delhi and Zhang Yan in Beijing. Editing by Brenda Goh & Jane Merriman.
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Tariff Man turns terminator
What the ROI team and Mike Dolan are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. Editor's Notes Hello Morning Bid readers! The White House announced on Thursday that Donald Trump will meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping during his Asia trip next week. This boosted Asian equities on Friday. On Thursday, Trump wrote on Truth Social, that negotiations with Canada, another major U.S. trade partner, had been "TERMINATED" because of a "fraudulent ad" showing Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The U.S. signed a trade deal with Australia on Monday, which will invest up to $8 billion in projects that develop and refine metals essential to industries such as defence, advanced manufacturing, and energy transition. Clyde Russell, ROI Asia Commodities columnist, argues that while this deal is not a game changer for the U.S. or its allies in their quest to reduce reliance on China, it is still a good first step. Investors, who were deprived of economic data due to the government shutdown will receive official information on the economy today. The CPI inflation rate for September. It is expected to remain at 3.1% over the past year. As ROI's editor-at-large Mike Dolan points out, the markets will likely shrug off this announcement, since almost no one cares about inflation any more. The job market is what matters, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell at the FOMC meeting in September. Jamie McGeever, a columnist for ROI markets, argues that the fall in Treasury yields over the past month -- the 10-Year yield dropped below 4% this week -- shows investors are listening to Powell. Intel, among many other companies, reported strong results for the third quarter, while Netflix and Tesla posted disappointing results. Jamie McGeever says that we may be seeing signs of the equity rally expanding. Geopolitics was once again at the forefront of this week's energy markets as President Trump imposed sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Rosneft, and Lukoil, on Wednesday in an attempt to press Russian President Vladimir Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. Ron Bousso, ROI Energy's columnist, argues that Trump's willingness and ability to enforce secondary sanctions will determine the effectiveness of this measure. Brent crude prices rose over 5% after the announcement, but it is likely that this increase will be short-lived as global oil markets are widely believed to have an oversupply. Ron Bousso points out that the uncertainty around OPEC+'s production should limit any selling. Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition columnist, pointed out that, in terms of fossil fuels, the natural gas consumption of U.S. gas firms is likely to surpass the gas consumption of U.S. consumers for the first time by 2025. This will exacerbate tensions between export-oriented gas companies and domestic gas users. Andy Home, ROI's Columnist for Metals, shares his main takeaways following the recent London Metal Exchange Week. Spoiler alert: everyone loves Doctor Copper. Gold, the most famous of all metals, saw its prices plummet on Tuesday. This was the biggest drop in five years. Gold is up over 50% in this year despite its fall from a record high of $4,300. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. This weekend we will be reading... CLYDE RUSSELL. ROI Asia Commodities and Energy columnist. My suggestion for this week is a report by the OECD on Australia's Green Iron Potential. The report outlines both the size of the opportunity and the enormous challenge that comes with funding and coordinating a major shift for the largest iron ore producer in the world. MIKE DOLAN is ROI Financial Markets Editor at Large. This column by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, of the Peterson Institute, explores the possibility that a fiscal crisis in France - the EU's sole nuclear power - could result in the transference of France's nuclear deterrent cost to the EU. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. This fascinating investigation reveals that dark fleet oil tankers are not only used for dubious Iranian and Russian oil trade. These vessels are being used also by Mexican drug cartels to trade illegal oil and evade taxes in a thriving market. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The most fascinating thing I read this week was about the underground race that will be held in Boliden’s Garpenberg Zinc mine in Sweden. Participants will run in darkness and complete silence, with temperatures up to 30degC. We're listening... GAVIN MAGUIRE. ROI Global Energy Transition columnist. This is an interesting podcast about the possibilities of EV battery recycling. The plan is to "turn a massive wave incoming of used batteries into a resource for the grid." We're watching... ANNA SZYMANSKI (ROI Editor-in Charge): I know I recommended the World News vodcast to you last week but I am doing it again so that you don't forget the new video version. Opinions are the sole responsibility of the author. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. Want the Morning Bid delivered to your inbox each weekday morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. You can find ROI at the website and follow us on LinkedIn or X.
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Copper prices steady after reaching $11,000; weekly gains expected
Copper rose to $11,000 per metric tonne on Friday, before losing momentum. However, it was still on track for a weekly increase amid renewed optimism about trade talks between China and the United States as well as continuing concerns over a lack of supply. As of 0915 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had risen 0.3% to $10,886.50. It had risen as high as 1.1% earlier to $10,969 and was close to the 16 month high of $11,000 reached on October 9. This week, the metal used for power and construction is expected to gain 2.6%. John Meyer, analyst at SP Angel, said: "I believe copper will continue to be used... purely due to the developing shortage caused by the mud rush in Grasberg as well as the continued need for copper around the globe and especially in China." Freeport's Grasberg Mine in Indonesia is closed since the September 8 incident. LME Copper Stocks The 136,350 tonnage was the lowest since late July. Meyer said that there is a possibility of a copper squeeze similar to the one in zinc seen this week. Chinese smelters who are playing the London-Shanghai arbitration risk being caught because of a shortage of physical metal. China's Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum Thursday. The party vowed to concentrate on technological innovation, and to boost consumption. Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, confirmed that Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday in South Korea. Meyer stated that with gold prices dropping from their record highs, "there's definitely more attention being paid to base metals." Aluminum fell 0.2% to 2,856.50 per ton after reaching $2,883.50 its highest level since May 2022 due to supply concerns. Zinc fell by 0.3% to $3,000, nickel dropped 0.5% to $16,290, while lead rose 0.1% to 2,012.50, and tin increased 0.2% to $3740. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Vijay Kishore;
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Low spot prices expected due to strong wind supply
Germany's wind production is expected to be strong on Monday, even though it has fallen from the high levels that were expected on Friday. LSEG data showed that the German and French baseload power contracts for Monday were not traded by 0950 GMT Friday. According to LSEG analyst Naser Hachemi, the German residual load was relatively low on Monday, due to a strong wind supply. Thermal availability is also returning. Data compiled by LSEG shows that German wind power production is expected to fall by 6 gigawatts on Monday to 41.8 GW. Meanwhile, French wind power is projected to increase by 1 GW to 13.1 GW. The German solar energy supply is expected to drop by 2.6 GW - 3.6 GW. On Monday, power consumption in Germany will rise by 1.5 GW and reach 57.1 GW. In France, demand is expected to fall by 240MW to 48.3GW. On Sunday, October 26 at 3:00 am, the clocks will be set back one hour, bringing in the winter. The French nuclear capacity fell by five percentage points, to 70% total capacity. Two reactors were taken offline for planned maintenance and Golfech 1, for an unplanned shutdown. Operator EDF reported that the Golfech 1 reactor had been taken offline on Friday morning due to a fault on a power cord in the non-nuclear portion of the facility. The German power contract for 2026 has dropped 0.3%, to 56.15 Euro/MWh. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets rose by 0.1%, to 78.51 euro per metric ton. $1 = 0.8575 Euros (Reporting and additional reporting by Vera Eckert, Editing by Sahal Muhammad)
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Sources say that the rise in fuel prices in Tajikistan is due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
Three sources from the government of Tajikistan said that the rise in fuel costs in Tajikistan is partly due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, they told reporters on Friday. A source from the anti-monopoly service of the Tajik Government said that there is a shortage of gasoline on the market. This has resulted in higher prices. Sources said that the source was unable to deliver fuel that had been contracted from Russian producers, citing strikes at Russian refineries which supplied much of Tajikistan’s fuel requirements. Two other sources also agreed. Monitoring on Friday revealed that fuel prices have risen in the capital of Tajikistan, Dushanbe. This has been happening since October 1. The A-95 has risen by 3.54%. The AI-92 by 3.68%. Diesel by 5.58%. And liquefied petrol gas (LPG), by 5.81%. According to one source, prices are even higher outside of the capital. Tajikistan, a mountainous nation of about 10.5 million people, has few hydrocarbon resources of its own. It is therefore economically dependent on Russia, to which many of its citizens are sent for work. Since 2022, the war in Ukraine by Russia has had a devastating impact on all five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, whose economies have a close relationship with Russia. In recent weeks, an escalating Ukrainian campaign against Russian energy infrastructure knocked down up to a quarter of Moscow's refinery capacity. This had a ripple affect in Central Asia. The strike at Russia's Orenburg plant last week, which processes the gas from Kazakhstan Karachaganak, has drastically reduced the capacity of this plant, the largest in the world. Last week, Kazakhstan frozen fuel prices and utility rates, blaming the fallout of the Ukraine war. Kyrgyzstan officials warned on Wednesday that fuel prices may increase up to 15% due to the shortage. (Reporting and Writing by Felix Light; Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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Carney, Canada's Carney, visits Asia in order to form new alliances with Asia and reduce US dependency
Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, will make his first official trip to Asia this Friday. He is hoping to strengthen trade and security links at a moment when North America struggles to reduce its dependence on the U.S. Canadian officials have said that Carney may also meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his week-long visit, as part of a possible attempt to restore a relationship previously strained by a trade war. Analysts say Carney will need to make it clear to Asian leaders that Canada is not as closely aligned to the U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to annex Canada. Vina Nadjibulla is vice president of Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. She said that Carney must make it clear to the world that Canada is not fragmented and still supports rules-based globalization and trade. Canada signed a deal last month with Indonesia to provide duty-free access to up to 95% its exports to Indonesia in the coming year. Maninder Singh Sidhu, Canada's Trade Minister, said that the country is now focusing on agreements with Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. Carney will visit Singapore to meet with officials and attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea. Trump departs to Malaysia in the late evening Friday night The White House announced that Xi will be meeting with President Kim in South Korea on Thursday. Carney wants to diversify Canada's exports in the next decade. However, Canada is still dependent on the U.S. about 75% for its goods. Fen Hampson is a professor at Ottawa's Carleton University who specializes in international affairs. He said that there are far more business opportunities in Asia for Canada than in Europe. Carney visited Europe three times after becoming Prime Minister in March. Hampson stated that the economies of Southeast Asia were more dynamic, and therefore compatible with Canada's energy and commodity trade. Hampson noted that, despite this, any deal Canada makes with China would be affected by the geopolitical dynamics of the U.S.-China. Hampson stated that as tensions between the U.S.A. and China escalate, Prime Minister Carney will have less room to maneuver. He believed that it would be hard to resolve Canada's ongoing disputes with China about canola, electric vehicles and other issues without improved relations between these two global superpowers. Hampson stated that the Americans put a lot of pressure on him to refuse to concede to his perceived rival. Former banker raises hopes for improved relations Many Canadians also fear closer economic ties with China. In a poll conducted by Angus Reid & the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, 59% of respondents still have a negative view of China and only 14% believe Canada should pursue closer economic ties with China. Justin Trudeau, Carney's predecessor as prime minister, was responsible for the deterioration of relations between Canada and China. Canadian citizens were secretly murdered by the Chinese government. Canada's security agencies concluded that China interfered with at least two federal election. Xi publicly scolded Trudeau for allegedly leaking their conversations to the media. Analysts claim that Carney's experience as a central banker, and his credentials as an ex-central banker give him credibility that his predecessor lacked. Carney said that he spoke to Chinese Premier Li Qiang in the last month, and that he expects to meet with senior Chinese leaders soon to "see how trade relations evolve." In a region where protocol and customs are of great importance, the Prime Minister may still need to tread with caution. Isaac Stone Fish is the CEO of Strategy Risks - a Chinese business intelligence company. He said that Carney's behavior with Xi Jinping will be equally important. Carney knows that a literal bowing down to Xi would look weak. (Reporting and editing by Maria Cheng, Caroline Stauffer, and Margueritachoy).
USA Rare Earth reaches all-time high following close discussions with White House by a report miner
USA Rare Earth's shares rose more than 18% on Friday to reach a new record high, following a report that its CEO Barbara Humpton had said the company was in discussions with the White House.
In an interview on CNBC, Humpton answered a question regarding the company's interest in striking a business deal with the Trump Administration.
USA Rare Earth has not responded to our request for comment immediately.
Humpton's comments follow the Trump Administration's purchase of a 5% share in Lithium Americas, and a separate stake of 5% in General Motors' joint venture Thacker Pass with the company earlier this week.
In March, U.S. president Donald Trump invoked emergency powers to increase domestic production of vital minerals. This was part of an effort to counter China's near total control of this sector.
In March, China halted the export of rare earths - a grouping of 17 metals which are used to produce magnets that convert power into motion - as part of its trade dispute with Trump. Although there were some signs of relief in June, the broader tensions highlighted the need for increased U.S. production.
MP Materials announced a multi-billion dollar deal in July with the U.S. Government to increase production of rare earth magnets. The Defense Department became its largest shareholder.
USA Rare Earth is developing a mine at Sierra Blanca in Texas, and a manufacturing facility for neo-magnets in Stillwater in Oklahoma. Both are expected to be commercially available in the first half 2026.
Subash Chandra is an analyst at The Benchmark Company and he said that the company was one of the most important emerging neo-magnet manufacturers in America. Any reshoring plan should include this company.
Chandra stated that "we don't yet know the form in which a possible U.S. Government investment could take. But there is still a piece missing to the mines-to magnet strategy."
The company's market capitalization is now $2.59 billion, after its shares have doubled this year. (Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)